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Volume 24, Issue 103, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Friday Morning May 25th, 2007

Holiday Notice

RBR returns Tuesday, May 29th. The RBR/TVBR/MBR offices will be closed Monday, May 28th, in observance of Memorial Day.

Radio News ®

Is it "game over"
with PPM winning?
That's the view from CL King analyst Jim Boyle, now that long-time critic Bob Neil at Cox Radio has signed a contract with Arbitron for PPM (5/24/07 RBR #102). "It appears in our view that the long struggle between Arbitron, the near-monopolist in radio audience research with its new, higher-priced electronic measurement, and the radio station groups is 'game over.' With most of the influential radio groups signed up, including the two largest, it seems effectively over," Boyle said in a research note. Boyle's PPM scorecard shows that groups with roughly 44% of radio revenues in the top 50 markets have signed group contracts with Arbitron for PPM measurement. The "core PPM holdouts" are Clear Channel (although it has signed a single market contract for Philadelphia), Entercom and Cumulus, who account for a combined 43%. Listed separately by Boyle is Radio One, which is encoding but has not yet signed a PPM contract. "We do not know which way Citadel is leaning," he added, but he suspects it will sign up for PPM when the first markets come on line for the ABC Radio stations it is acquiring from Disney. Boyle, who maintains his "accumulate" rating on Arbitron's stock, admits he was as surprised as everyone else by the Cox signing. "CEO Bob Neil is widely respected and noted for his feisty, harsh criticisms of the PPM methodology since he is a veteran with rare programming background. We were not expecting this and neither were the Street and the Radio industry should be shocked as this will be viewed as a huge win for PPM by CXR's peers," Boyle told clients.

Satellite radio sales still slumping
Morgan Stanley analyst Benjamin Swinburne says his Q2 estimate that satellite radio retail sales would be down 8% "could be aggressive." April started the quarter off with a combined 24% drop for XM and Sirius, although the monthly count by NPD does not include Wal-Mart and online sales. That's the 8th straight month of double digit percentage declines in satellite radio receiver sales at retail outlets. Swinburne noted that Sirius showed its first material market share improvement in April since December, with 55.5% of the retail sales reported by NDP, compared to a 44.5% market share for XM. "Continued weaker retail category trends further highlight the importance of OEM adds for subscriber growth for both XM and SIRI. While April NPD data suggests our current forecast could be aggressive, we forecast XM and SIRI retail gross adds declining 4% and 12% in Q2 and 9% and 14%, respectively for full year 2007. Our category forecast assumes Sirius maintains its share advantage throughout the year," the analyst wrote.

A Bancroft speaks out
In the first public comments by a member of the controlling Bancroft family, Christopher Bancroft has told the Wall Street Journal he doesn't want to "pull the rug out" from under WSJ employees and doesn't see a takeover of Dow Jones & Co. by News Corporation as a good move. The WSJ article, however, notes a generational split in the family, with some younger members questioning how the family trusts are being run. While the Bancroft family did hold a powwow on the five billion bucks offer from Rupert Murdoch's News Corporation on Wednesday, the WSJ reported that Christopher Bancroft, who is a Dow Jones director, and other key members of the family skipped the gathering. With their family control of Dow Jones going back exactly 100 years, the Bancrofts are now a far-flung group and the family tree has branches with different views on how the company should be run - or whether it ought to be put up for sale. For one thing, the WSJ says some younger members are not pleased with the way their inheritance is being managed. Virtually all of the profits at Dow Jones are being paid out in dividends, with almost nothing being invested back into the company. The dividends going to the Bancroft trusts are all paid out to the older generation and some of the younger heirs are said to question whether that generous dividend policy is endangering the future value of the family fortune. While some Bancrofts, particularly some of the younger ones, are open to the idea of a sale, the company's flagship newspaper said there is no consensus in the family on what course to pursue.

RBR observation: Despite his insistence that he would have preferred to have kept his 60 bucks per share offer private, the public disclosure has accomplished what Rupert Murdoch needs most - to get the Bancrofts thinking seriously about the future course of Dow Jones and stirring debate within the family. Those heirs who weren't even told about the Murdoch bid until it became public are now likely to push for a family reassessment of whether cashing out might be a good idea. Some are no doubt concerned, and well they should be, about the announced merger of Reuters Group and Thomson Corporation, creating a second financial information company of approximately the same size as Bloomberg, leaving Dow Jones in a more distant third place.

XM/Sirius gets the Kohl shoulder
Sen. Herb Kohl (D-WI) is head of the Senate Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights (part of the Judiciary Committee), and hosted Mel Karmazin back in March to discuss the proposed merger of XM and Sirius satellite radio firms. Kohl told Karmazin he had problems with the merger, and apparently Karmazin was unable to change his mind. Kohl has fired off a letter to FCC Chairman Kevin Martin and Assistant Attorney General, Antitrust Division Thomas Barnett in which he states that, should it be determined that XM and Sirius constitute a distinct and separate market, then the merger cannot be allowed. "It is my conclusion that satellite radio is in fact a separate market." He explained his reasoning, noting the wide selection of programming, superior sound quality and mobility of the services as reasons it is distinct from all other audio services. Local radio is tied to its community, MP3s and iPods lack news and sports programming, and wireless internet is not a competitive alternative. He noted Karmazin's opinion that there isn't much chance of a new company entering the satellite audio business. He also argued that putting conditions on the merger was unwise, and that continuing competition between the services was preferable to the possibility of "intrusive government regulation for years to come." He asked for the merger to be denied.

ABC defends Iran story
Republican presidential candidates Mitt Romney and Tom Tancredo have both fired off potshots at ABC News for airing a story about CIA plans to disrupt the Iranian government in a "nonlethal" manner. Both felt that airing information on covert CIA activity could harm US security. ABC said it had run the story past proper authorities and stood by its decision. Romney said, "I was shocked to see the ABC News report regarding covert action in Iran." He added, "The reporting has the potential of jeopardizing our national security. To put it quite plainly, it has the potential of affecting human life, we may never know." His comments were echoed by Tancredo, who said that he objected to ABC "...running the story which could jeopardize American lives." ABC reported that the CIA had presidential approval to spread propaganda, misinformation and to attempt to manipulate Iranian banking transactions. ABC News said, "In the six days since we first contacted the CIA and the White House, at no time did they indicate that broadcasting this report would jeopardize lives or operations on the ground. ABC News management gave them the repeated opportunity to make whatever objection they wanted to regarding our report. They chose not to. This piece was very carefully reported, and it puts solid facts on the table concerning a crucial foreign policy challenge facing the United States and the world."

RBR observation: Since every American citizen has a say in how the government is run, every American citizen needs to have reasonable access to the world situation. Obviously, there are times when the need for secrecy is legitimate. It would appear that ABC went the extra mile to make sure that this was not the case in this instance. Like in so many broadcast content issues, there is no bright line dividing what should be aired and what should be suppressed. In our opinion, in a free society, the error should be on the side of disclosure.

Fun on the campaign trail
John McCain (R-AZ) has often managed to irk members of the media. As chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee, he practically declared open warfare with the National Association of Broadcasters on numerous issues ranging from LPFM to campaign advertising to media consolidation. For that reason, some may applaud the call for his resignation from the Senate from a member of his own state delegation, US Rep. Russell Pearce (R-AZ). Pearce says McCain is spending too much time on his bid for the White House and is leaving the job of Senator from the state of Arizona undone. According to reports, McCain has missed about half of the votes in the Senate this year, but his staff says he makes a great effort to get into Washington if a given vote is going to be close. Meanwhile, as if McCain does not have enough company seeking the Republican nomination, there is Newt Gingrich hanging in the shadows. Gingrich says he'll make a decision to run or not in November. Lately, he's been signing copies of his most recent book, "Pearl Harbor" - in New Hampshire and Iowa. Hmmmm. Finally, pity Sen. John Sununu (R-NH). That's Republican in New Hampshire, where a platoon of Democratic presidential hopefuls are barging around looking for something to talk about. Sometimes they get around to talking about John Sununu. Barack Obama (D-IL) went after Sununu and colleague Judd Gregg (R-NH) recently, prodding both to help get the US out of Iraq. Of course Judd is not up for re-election. Democrats see Sununu as vulnerable.

RBR observation: It is no doubt a great comfort to Sununu to remember that the New Hampshire primary comes well in advance of the November general election. Not that it will make him any less of a target for the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee in 2008, but at least he'll have all these other out-of-staters running around bad-mouthing him just before the election that counts.

Wall Street Media Business Report TM

Tribune completes phase one of buyout
Yesterday was the deadline for shareholders to tender their shares for 34 bucks each in cash, a total of 4.3 billion, in phase one of the plan to take Tribune Company private. Phase two, which will result in a complete change of ownership transferring 100% of the company to Sam Zell and a new Employee Stock Ownership Plan (ESOP), is awaiting FCC action on license transfers and requests for crossownership waivers. A California judge on Tuesday refused to issue an injunction which would have blocked the tender offer from closing, however the same court had earlier refused to throw out the lawsuit by a shareholder who claims the tender offer contains improper coercive aspects and accuses the company of failing to maximize shareholder value in the deal to buy out the public shareholders.

RBR observation: It is virtually guaranteed that the initial tender for 126 million shares will be oversubscribed. That's all that Zell and the ESOP can acquire until the FCC acts, so it is likely that many shareholders will have part of their tendered stakes cashed out, but remain Tribune shareholders for a while longer with the remainder of their shares.

Ad Business Report TM

Sears goes with MPG
MPG North America has just won the Sears Holding Corporation account, and will be responsible for "media planning and buying for all television, radio, magazines, out-of-home, online and emerging media" action, for all of the company's targeted demographics. Sears said MPG's ability to go multicultural played a major role in its decision, and for its part, MPG is happy that its client's desire to pursue an aggressive media path. "Throughout the pitch process the marketing teams from Sears and Kmart proved their reputation for being smart, fair and extremely professional," said MPG's Charlie Rutman. "What's most exciting to us is that their commitment to using media to grow their business is second to none. Sears Holding is exactly the kind of client we want to partner with."

RBR observation: This sounds like a double call to arms to us. First off, we would want to make sure we are a prominent part of any action Sears Holding has in store for our market. And we would also have an interest in letting Sears Holding's competitors know that Sears may well be on its way to grab a share of their business. It may be that they'll agree that a pre-emptive air strike is in order.

Wienermobile awaits
Idol runner-up
Oscar Mayer brand announced its official partnership with FremantleMedia for sponsorship of American Idol Season 7. Meanwhile, Season 5 finalist Elliott Yamin will help the Oscar Mayer team kick-off the search for the wiener company's next jingle stars on June 13, along with the "Hotdoggers" who drive the company's Wienermobiles, in the Central Courtyard at the Hollywood & Highland Center, just steps away from the Kodak Theatre where the season finale of American Idol took place this week. The hot dog company will use the Idol partnership to support its "Sing the Jingle, Be a Star" promotion via broadcast and online advertising, on-pack, and online at SingtheJingle.com. Now in its second year, the Oscar Mayer Sing the Jingle, Be a Star contest invites eager songsters to see if they can cut the mustard by singing their own unique rendition of one of the iconic Oscar Mayer jingles. Whether rapped, yodeled or sung in three-part harmony, interested hopefuls are encouraged to put their own relish on the Oscar Mayer Wiener Jingle, the Bologna Song, or an Oscar Mayer Spanish Jingle. Solo artists and -- new this year -- duos and groups of up to five people -- can enter from May 24 to October 31, 2007. As part of the promotion, the American Idol name and imagery will be featured on 250 million packs of Oscar Mayer lunch meats, hot dogs, corn dogs and bacon. The search will continue throughout the summer, as the Wienermobiles cruise the country hosting open casting calls to give Oscar Mayer fans the opportunity to enter the contest.

Media Markets & Money TM

Close encounter in Ashburn
The second half of a two-FM buy in Georgia is officially in the books, according to Media Services Group's Eddie Esserman. Educational Media Foundation acquired WRZX-FM, serving Albany GA from its city of license of Sylvester GA, and WFFM-FM, not too far away in Ashburn GA. The seller received a total of 615K for both; the smaller part of the deal, 115K for WFFM, is the portion which just closed.

Washington Media Business Report TM

Broadcasters gear up
for violence defense
Harvard Law School constitutional scholar Laurence Tribe is on the case. According to reports, a loose consortium of broadcast networks and media associations has hired him to mount a defense if need be. And the case is the potential First Amendment attack which may be coming from Congress on the issue of broadcast violence. A hearing in the Senate Commerce Committee has been scheduled, then postponed, Sen. Jay Rockefeller (D-WV) has been promising a bill on the topic, and the FCC has been cheerleading from the sidelines. On the other hand, academics have pointed out that the oft-claimed links between violence in the media and violence in society have never been scientifically demonstrated, making this a baseless assault on broadcast First Amendment rights, particularly when parents are giving better tools with which to control what their children can and cannot see on the home television set.

RBR observation: We don't believe Congress can successfully define violence - note that the FCC didn't even try, and since there is no smoking gun evidence, it would appear that Rockefeller faces an impossible task. But that probably won't stop him from trying, and neither will it stop a lot of other politicians from signing on to "protect our children." Stay tuned.

Entertainment Media Business Report TM

Free FM set free as K-Rock returns
New CBS Radio CEO Dan Mason is making his mark in New York. The company yesterday blew up the "Free FM" talk format on 92.3 after the Opie & Anthony morning show and brought back K-Rock at 5:00 pm. The WFNY calls are also being jettisoned, with the WXRK call letters, which have been warehoused in Cleveland, returning as well. O&A will continue in morning drive, but the rest of the air staff is gone, with new Rock DJs to be introduced after the station runs jockless through the Memorial Day weekend. ""Moving forward, you can expect the station to cater to its diverse audience through the use of interactive digital applications, local and national events and collaborations with some of the top names in the music industry. This is a station that made history in the past, and will write it once again," said VP/GM Tom Chiusano in his official announcement. Kevin Weatherly, Senior Vice President of Programming, CBS RADIO and Program Director of Los Angeles's KROQ-FM, the nation's leading rock station, is overseeing the launch of the station, with a new PD yet to be named to succeed Free FM PD John Manelli. Newly unemployed "Radiochick" Leslie Gold is taking the change in stride. "I was fired twice before from radio jobs, and getting fired always landed me an even better job someplace else," she said in a statement sent to RBR.

RBR observation: The more things change, the more they stay the same. David Lee Roth was a disaster as Howard Stern's replacement, but CBS eventually found that O&A weren't as awful bad boys as they thought when the company previously fired them. But the attempt at hip, young-skewing talk all day long didn't work out either. So now we are back to pushing the envelope, almost raunchy, but staying within the FCC's (ever-changing) limits in morning drive and DJs playing rock the rest of the time. Hey, it only worked before for about 20 years.

Product placement goes on the road
Pop music is the predominate topic on Fox's American Idol, and Kellogg's Pop Tarts are hanging on for the ride as the just concluded 2007 edition of the show heads out for a tour of the nation this summer. The breakfast pastry will be featured as the provider of web-streamed behind-the-scenes footage, and will get further exposure in the title of the tour: The 2007 Pop Tarts Presents American Idols Live! Tour. The American Idols section of poptarts.com is already up and running, as a matter of fact. There will be 15 "webisodes" of live on the road with the show's top 12 finalists. The event will come to 53 cities between 7/6/07 and 9/22/07.

RBR observation: We don't know about you, but if there's any chance some tie-in possibilities exist for your station, we'd be on top of the schedule right away.
Here, at TicketsPlus.com, is the schedule as it stands now.

Transactions

2.65M WDBZ-AM Cincinnati OH from Blue Chip Communications Inc. (L. Ross Love Jr.) to Radio One Licenses LLC (Catherine L. Hughes, Alfred C. Liggins III). Promissory note. Duopoly with WIZF-FM, WMOJ-FM. LMA 8/10/01. [File date 5/7/07.]

N/A KOKY-FM Little Rock (Sherwood AR) from Citadel Broadcasting Company (Farid Suleman) to The Last Bastion Station Trust LLC (Elliot B. Evers). Swapping KOKY-FM out of trust and replacing it with KARN-FM once the move of KOKY-FM into the trust is complete. Citadel also has KAAY-FM, KARN AM & FM, KIPR-FM, KURB-FM & KLAL-FM; Last Bastion also holds KPZK-AM, KVLO-FM. [File date 5/9/07.]

Stock Talk

Good news for housing sinks stocks
How's that, you ask? Well, Wall Street initially cheered a Commerce Department report that sales of single-family homes jumped an unexpected 16.2% percent last month. But then, after thinking about it, traders realized that the bullish housing news made a Fed rate cut less likely. In the end, the Dow Industrials were down 84 points, or 0.6%, to 13,441.

Radio stocks also tumbled. The Radio Index declined 2.357, or 1.5%, to 159.668. Salem had the worst day, falling 7.1%. Emmis fell 3.2%.

Radio Stocks

**Here's how stocks fared on Thursday**
Company	Symbol	Close		Change	Company	Symbol	Close		Change
Arbitron	ARB		49.86	-0.25	Hearst-Argyle	HTV		25.56	-0.46
Beasley	BBGI		8.79	-0.05	Journal Comm.	JRN		13.81	+0.09
CBS CI. B	CBS		33.04	-0.20	Lincoln Natl.	LNC		72.15	-0.95
CBS CI. A	CBSa		32.99	-0.20	Radio One, Cl. A	ROIA		7.50	-0.03
Citadel	CDL		8.31	-0.17	Radio One, Cl. D	ROIAK		7.53	-0.04
Clear Channel	CCU		38.30	+0.10	Regent	RGCI		3.36	+0.06
Cox Radio	CXR		14.59	-0.32	Saga Commun.	SGA		9.43	-0.06
Cumulus	CMLS		9.34	-0.02	Salem Comm.	SALM		11.75	-0.90
Disney	DIS		35.84	-0.64	Sirius Sat. Radio	SIRI		2.90	+0.04
Emmis	EMMS		10.27	-0.34	Spanish Bcg.	SBSA		4.61	-0.08
Entercom	ETM		27.01	-0.62	SWMX	SMWX		0.24	unch
Entravision	EVC		9.26	-0.12	Westwood One	WON		8.06	+0.09
Fisher	FSCI		49.07	-0.98	XM Sat. Radio	XMSR		11.90	+0.28
Google	GOOG		474.33	+0.36	-	-	-	-	-

Bounceback

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Below the Fold

Ad Business Report
Sears goes with MPG
MPG North America has just won the Sears Holding Corporation account...

Media Markets & Money
Close encounter in Ashburn
The second half of a two-FM buy in Georgia is officially in the books...

Washington Media Business Report
Broadcasters gearing up
For violence defense loose consortium of broadcast networks & media associations has hired...

Entertainment Media
Business Report
Product placement
Goes on the road with Fox's Idol and Kellogg's Pop Tarts...

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Radio Media Moves

AWRT
to honor
Stamberg
American Women in Radio and Television (AWRT) announced that legendary NPR journalist Susan Stamberg will receive the 2007 Gracie Allen Tribute Award, which is presented to an individual who embodies the same innovative and ground-breaking spirit as the legendary Gracie Allen. Stamberg is a special correspondent for NPR, where she has been bringing an international audience the news for 36 years.

Clark returns
Emmis Communications New York announced the return of Leon Clark as General Sales Manager of WRKS-FM "98.7 Kiss FM." Clark previously worked in the same capacity at the station in 2002. Since then he helped launch the Air America Radio Network where as General Manager and Vice President of Sales, and most recently was General Sales Manager for CBS Radio's WFNY-FM "Free FM."

More News Headlines

Corvus rules out
EMI bid
Corvus Capital confirmed that it had looked at making a bid for EMI Group, but has decided against it. That means that the deal announced to sell the record company to Terra Firma for approximately 4.7 billion (5/22/07 RBR #100) stands, barring someone else stepping in with a topper. The New York Post had reported that former EMI CEO Jim Fifield had been working with Corvus on a post-auction bid which would have topped the deal with the Terra Firma private equity group.

TVBR - TV News

FCC allows Apple TVs to explore temporary DTV solution
Broadcast television stations have been diligently getting ready for the DTV conversion, but there's been one market which has faced a particular challenge. New York City lost a primary tower site during the attacks of 9/11/01. The FCC has now granted an experimental authorization to try to get the Big Apple's stations up to speed. The stations involved, which all had antennae on the North Tower of the World Trade Center, are WCBS-TV, WNBC-TV, WNYW-TV, WABC-TV, WWOR-TV, WPIX-TV, WNET-TV, WPXN-TV WNJU-TV & WXTV-TV. The licensees have banded together under the name Metropolitan Television Alliance (MTA). Most of these have relocated to the Empire State Building (ESB), but existing tenants there forced digital antennae to be side-mounted, which led to a significant loss of coverage area. And all MTA members will eventually move to the new Freedom Tower, which will solve the coverage problem but which is not projected to be completed until 2011. The proposed interim solution is to use a Channel 12 transmitter on ESB and additional transmitters on Channels 12, 33 & 65 at four locations in Brooklyn. The FCC, seeing no apparent interference issues, has found the proposal to be in the public interest and has granted the go-ahead for a low power digital repeater network on these channels. The MTA has 30M to work with courtesy of the US Congress.

RBR Radar 2007

Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Shareholders take swipe at CCU
Clear Channel may be on the verge of becoming a private company, but shareholders got in a final swipe at management. They voted at their annual meeting to require greater independence of directors serving on the company's compensation committee, despite a unanimous recommendation by the board of directors that the proposal be voted down.

RBR observation: The obvious target of this measure is B.J. "Red" McCombs, who co-founded Clear Channel with Lowry Mays and has been a company director for every minute of its existence over the past 35 years. According to the CCU proxy, the company leases some office space in San Antonio from a company owned by the adult offspring of Lowry Mays and Red McCombs for just under 17K per month. (There is more detail on 'Red' in this issue of RBR)
05/24/07 RBR #102

Radio pay attention:
TV revenues dropped in Q1
No surprise, since there were no Winter Olympics this year, nor federal elections. TV station revenues were down 3%, syndicated TV 5.9% and network TV 6.5%. All in all, the industry was down 5.3% to 11.75 billion for the quarter.
05/24/07 TVBR #102

Internet ads growing like wildfire
You no doubt know already that Internet advertising was hot in 2006. Your own station's website ad sales likely grew double digits and your spot sales probably felt some new competition from various online enterprises. The Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) is out with its official tally by Pricewaterhouse Coopers.
05/24/07 RBR #102

Google pushes
spectrum subleasing
Google auctions its own online advertising, under terms of which companies control where their ads will appear on Google's search engine by how much they're willing to pay per click. The online giant thinks this model could lead to much more efficient use of the radio spectrum, and suggests that the FCC allow its auction winners to offer wholesale whatever spectrum it has but is not using. Also, a large chunk of prime spectrum is coming on the market as television broadcasters get set to turn in their analog licenses and begin digital-only transmission beginning 2/17/09. The spectrum auction will take place well before that date, and FCC Chairman Kevin Martin (R) has been talking about getting the auction under way as early as this Fall.

RBR observation: This appears to come in under the heading of an idea worth looking at, but not one to rush into headlong. One watchdog mentioned the ugly possibility of a small company investing heavily in a spectrum device only to find itself shut out of the spectrum once a private auction is completed. The big positive for broadcasters in all this is that they will be long gone from this portion of the spectrum while such issues are hammered out. There will no doubt be plenty of digital conversion issues, and it will be nice to let someone else worry about this one.
05/23/07 RBR #101

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