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Volume 24, Issue 228, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
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Wednesday Morning November 21st, 2007
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Happy Thanksgiving
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 RBR returns Monday, November 26.
The RBR/TVBR offices will be open regular business hours on Wednesday, then closed Thursday and Friday so our employees and their families can enjoy Thanksgiving.
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Radio News ®
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 Jacoby sounds almost
like a bull on October results
Who will be right? CL King analyst Jim Boyle is out with his view, after checking his sources in various markets, that October radio revenues were down about 5% (11/19/07 RBR #226), which would be worse than the Wall Street consensus of -3%. But Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby has been checking with his own sources and comes to a different conclusion. He thinks that when the numbers come in from RAB, radio will be down only about 3% for the month, a tweak to the positive side from his earlier estimate of -4%. Jacoby says his data from most of the large markets show that spot sales were down 3.1%, with national continuing to be soft. But NTR, led by online, was strong in October, up 20-25%. So he sees the big markets down only 1% year over year. Those markets account for about 30% of total industry revenues. He figures medium and small markets will not have as much strength on the NTR side, so when all markets are added in Jacoby expects total radio revenues for October to be down about 3%.
CBS comments on WGA vote to authorize strike
CBS has issued a statement regarding the WGA East vote to authorize a strike. 500 CBS News TV and radio writers in NY, LA, DC and Chicago have been working under an expired contract since 4/05. In a vote, the WGA said 81% of the writers who participated gave WGA negotiators the power to call a strike.
Said CBS: "It is unfortunate that our WGA news writers have voted to authorize a strike. The offer we presented nearly a year ago was fair and reasonable, and remains on the table. It not only includes one of the best medical plans in the country with minimal employee contributions, but fair salary increases to all WGA employees as well. In fact, contrary to what the WGA contends, CBS proposed an annual increase of 3% for television and network radio, and 2% for the radio stations covered by this agreement. The lower percentage increases the WGA continues to cite are based on spreading the increases as if they were retroactive to April 2005; the offer of retroactivity expired after CBS had made numerous attempts over a long period of time to conduct and conclude negotiations. As to the issue of assigning current WGA responsibilities at KNX radio to non-WGA employees, here are the facts: we are simply asking that some writing duties be shared with those from another professional talent union (AFTRA) at a sister station in Los Angeles. This request seems fair given that AFTRA employees had already agreed to it, and that we are offering layoff protection to any worker at KNX affected by the change. We hope there is no strike. Should there be, however, CBS News, CBS Television Stations and CBS Radio remains fully prepared, and ready to continue producing the highest quality news programming for our viewers."
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Arbitron says clients were involved in PPM all along
Arbitron CEO Steve Morris' proposal to have President of Sales and Marketing Pierre Bouvard meet with the four radio group heads demanding immediate changes to improve PPM in-tab performance (11/20/07 RBR #227) didn't do much to placate the angry broadcasters. They've already signed PPM contracts and they want Arbitron to deliver what was promised. There was also some astonishment at Morris' reference to past debates over "trade-offs vs. cost," with the broadcasters asking what debates he was talking about, since they and the Radio Advisory Council weren't involved. Rather, Arbitron laid out how it would cost 65% more than diaries to switch to PPM. The broadcasters are paying the increased cost and, at least some of them, don't think Arbitron is delivering what they paid for. Arbitron Sr. VP Thom Mocarsky late yesterday explained to RBR what Morris was referring to. He said the RAC, MRC, COLRAM, 4As, ANA and radio groups, along with others, were all involved in discussions that started in June 2000 when Arbitron announced the first US PPM trial in Wilmington, DE.
"In particular, radio broadcasters and the Advisory Council were most influential in discussions that took place once we first proposed our 'radio first' rollout schedule in the summer of 2006. As a direct result of those discussions with clients we sped up the full course of the proposed implementation schedule by 18 months and moved New York and LA to the top of the rollout list," Mocarsky said, adding, "We had originally proposed that we get a few more markets under our belt before we tackled NY and LA."
RBR observation: Arbitron is under attack now on numerous fronts and it remains to be seen how the company can simultaneously put out all these fires and continue full-tilt on its PPM roll-out schedule. In addition to the four major broadcasters demanding changes, Arbitron has agreed to have another independent analysis of PPM to answer claims by NABOB, civil rights groups and the New York City Council that PPM undercounts minority listeners. Meanwhile, there is no sign that Media Ratings Council (MRC) accreditation of PPM in Philadelphia or New York is at hand. The ultra-secretive MRC hasn't said what the holdup is, but there are whispers that telephone recruiting for PPM panelists isn't passing muster. That's what is being used in Philly and New York - and all future markets under the Arbitron plan. Houston alone has MRC accreditation for PPM - the only market where a different recruitment method, based on addresses, is used. It is more expensive and dates back to Arbitron's unsuccessful effort to interest Nielsen in a joint venture to use PPM for both radio and TV measurement. We have to wonder if Arbitron set the bar in Houston and now the MRC won't let them lower it.
 Big doings at the FCC next week
Kevin Martin said he had a lot on his broadcasting plate in his conference call with reporters last week, and he wasn't kidding. The 11/27/07 FCC Open Meeting will feature a smorgasbord of items of interest -- and concern -- to members of the broadcasting community. After dealing with a wireline issue, the FCC will look at:
* One omnibus item touching on "diversification of ownership, the 2006 Quadrennial Review on ownership, cross-ownership, multiple-station ownership in a local market, defining radio markets, and more (this is where Martin's new permission for cross-ownership in the top 20 markets should appear);
* A look at LPFM;
* Standardized and enhanced disclosure requirements for TV public interest requirements;
* Assessment of the state of competition in the delivery of video programming;
* Assessment of the state of competition in the market for video programming;
* a look at leased commercial access for video programmers, development of competition and diversity in video programming distribution and carriage.
RBR observation: Many in television would consider duopoly rights, especially in smaller markets, to be an early holiday present. Instead, they may be facing new reporting requirements on the subjective topic of serving the public interest. Radio appears to have dodged that bullet (although we won't believe that until we see it), but may well face a new onslaught of potential interference from LPFMs. Next Tuesday could be a rough ride at The Portals in Southwest Washington DC. We suggest you strap in.
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Arrows continue to fly in Martin's direction
Almost the entire Republican roster of the House Energy and Commerce Committee joined a coalition of religious programmers in trying to head off an expected attempt by FCC Chairman Kevin Martin to impose a new layer of regulation on the cable industry. Meanwhile, members of the Senate looked to dual carriage provide relief for small systems. The House posse was led by Ranking Member Joe Barton (R-TX) and former Speaker and soon-to-be-retired Dennis Hastert (R-IL). According to the Wall Street Journal, they object to the FCC bestowing upon itself the right to increase regulation of the industry. The Faith and Family Broadcasting Coalition also objects, specifically to Martin's known desire to force an a la carte channel menu offering on cable operators. They "...believe an a la carte retime will limit and reduce the distribution of religious and faith-based inspirational programming," echoing the worries of lost access to viewers expressed by other niche and minority programmers. The bipartisan roster of senators were expressing concerns that a dual-carriage order from the FCC requiring side-by-side analog and digital carriage of broadcast signals for a minimum of three years after the digital transition would be too expensive for small cable operators and would put too much of a burden on limited capacity.
RBR observation: Once again, communications issues demonstrate their ability to blur ideological boundaries. One of the big reasons for promoting a la carte is to honor the wishes of anti-indecency organizations like Parents Television Council, who think parents should be able to simply refuse objectionable channels, paying only for those they intend to watch. It sounds reasonable enough, but it is very damaging to the cable business model, and small religious broadcasters are very much afraid they will casualties in the war against edgier material.
 Three (percent) for the road
You've heard of the terrible twos? How about the ubiquitous threes? No less than six stories made the Project for Excellence in Journalism coverage chart for the week of 11/11/07-11/16/07 with a 3% share, a sure sign of another week with out a dominant news event. With most of the top stories getting even-handed and modest coverage, the running interest in the 2008 campaign was more than enough to propel it to the top of the chart with seven times that much coverage (21%). The unstable situation in Pakistan was still good enough for a 7% share of the newshole (down from #1 17% the previous week), and coverage of events in Iraq edged out the three-percent brigade with a 5% share. The indictment of tainted baseball slugger Barry Bonds was in the mix, as was continuing interest in O.J. Simpson's latest travails -- although once again that was almost entirely due to cable's focus on the story (while mostly passing on Pakistan). The biggest story to exit the overall chart was the burgeoning price of oil and gasoline, although radio was still on the story. As consumers ourselves, we fear that one will be back on the chart soon enough.
| Top ten lists here |
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Broadcast Electronics and iTunes...
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Advertisement
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| Wall Street Business Report TM |
October declines for Journal
Advertising was down across the board in October at Journal Communications, although that should hardly come as a surprise to anyone. Radio was down 7.9% to 6.56 million, with no repeat of 180K in political spending from last year, but also weakness in both local and national spot sales. Television revenues declined 18.4% to 11.55 million, with local and national up, but 3.63 million less from political. Publishing ad revenues were down 9.6% to 15.64 million.
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Ad Business Report TM
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Article looks at radio benefiting from WGA strike
Looks like the idea is catching on: Radio-and other media-may soon benefit from the WGA strike. We first took an in-depth look at it early this month with buyers (11/1/07 RBR #214), and now Ad Age is seeing the possibilities emerge as well in an article yesterday, "Buyers Look Beyond TV as Strike Rolls On" Excerpts from the story: "The writers strike has media buyers growing cautious about the efficacy of TV advertising in the weeks ahead and in the first quarter of 2008 -- and mulling strategies for possible reallocation of marketers' ad spending. The fourth quarter is an especially fraught time for marketers to not be able to count on TV as a reach vehicle, as many are pushing products for the holidays. "The strike has clearly challenged us to approach the TV world a little differently over the next weeks," said Eric Blankfein, senior VP-channel insights director at Horizon Media. "We are looking to provide our clients with alternatives in reaching their audiences at a crucial time of year. Retail is so focused on fourth-quarter results that we can't afford to have a drop-off in audience delivery."
The strike offers good reason to evaluate and consider moving some clients into venues such as cinema, radio, digital and print, Mr. Blankfein added. No doubt the strike has other media outlets licking their chops at the idea of getting a piece of broadcast TV's billions. "We don't want to exploit the writers strike, but we want to be able to be a partner the industry can look to if they're concerned about television underdelivery," said Mark McLaughlin, VP-audience strategies at Yahoo. A spokeswoman for Univision said the Spanish-language network is emphasizing its 52-week schedule of original programming to media buyers."
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| Media Business Report TM |
 Q3 newspaper ad revenue falls 7.4%; online ad revs up
Advertising at U.S. newspapers fell 7.4% in Q3, the Newspaper Association of America reported Tuesday. Revenues from print ads fell 9% to 10.1 billion in the quarter, led by a 17% drop in classified advertising. Among the major print components in Q3, classified advertising fell 17% to 3.4 billion. Retail declined 4.9% to $5.1 billion and national was down 2.5%, coming in at $1.7 billion. Help-wanted ads fell 19.7% and ads for cars fell 17.7%. "Newspaper Web sites continue to generate substantial revenue by offering advertisers access to the nation's most desirable group of consumers," said NAA President and CEO John Sturm. "At the same time, broader economic issues are impacting our industry the same way they are impacting other media - the continued fallout from declines in the housing market clearly affects real estate, recruitment and retail advertising. Newspaper companies continue to take aggressive measures to prepare for the future during a period of economic challenges for the industry."
Newspapers are also feeling the pinch from online alternatives such as eBay, Craigslist, Web sites run by real estate brokers or help-wanted postings on places like Monster.com. Nonetheless, online ad revenues at newspapers climbed 21% to 773 million in the latest period compared with a year ago. Online ads now make up about 7.1% of the industry's revenue, versus 7.0% in Q2 and 5.4% in Q3 2006.
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| Media Markets & Money TM |
AM, LMA partner figure in small sale
KMCL-AM in Donnelly ID is going from Brundage Mountain Air, headed by David S. Eaton, to Holly Larsen's Mountain Aire LLC. The 50K pricetag (placed in escrow in its entirety for release on closing day) is only part of the story, however. Larsen will also pick up Eaton's LMA of KMCL-FM in McCall ID, making this a de facto combo transaction. McCall and Donnelly are in unrated territory about 100 miles north of Boise.
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| Washington Business Report TM |
Feingold joins the chorus for rulemaking brakes
Russ Feingold (D-WI) is the latest to fire off a letter to FCC Chairman Kevin Martin urging him to take some more time, complete some more studies and initiate some more proceedings before moving on to a vote of any kind on media ownership regulation. Feingold said the FCC's motives were suspect and that further study of localism and minority/female ownership was warranted before proceeding to a vote. He said he would push for adoption of the Byron Dorgan (D-ND) measure forcing a slowdown and study of the aforementioned topics.
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| Entertainment Business Report TM |
 Mike Greenberg
gets reality TV gig
ESPN Radio's Mike Greenberg, of "Mike and Mike in the Morning," has been tapped to host "Duel," an adrenaline-charged reality show which will get a six-night run beginning Monday, December 17th on ABC. The high-stakes tournament-style competition will air for an hour nightly over six nights with a guaranteed final winner. It will go into production after Thanksgiving. "Duel," from BermanBraun and Rocket Science Laboratories, features head-to-head matches with nerve rattling game play rewarding contestants who embrace shrewdness and manipulation to win. If contestants can react quickly under pressure and outsmart their opponents using strategy and deception, intellect and skill, they could walk away with a life-changing prize potentially more than 1.5 million. One of 20 contestants is guaranteed to win the jackpot.
According to the producers, the formula combines trivia challenges like those on "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire" with the strategy played in the "World Series of Poker." Contestants in "Duel" have been chosen for their confidence and charisma, a love of trivia and an obsession for competition. The 20 people will become characters to root for (or against) during the six night run. An online game of "Duel" is currently being developed by BermanBraun to launch on December 17th on ABC.com. Online gamers can choose to play either against the computer, or challenge other players' duels from around the country. Diet Pepsi Max is a key sponsor of the television show and the online game.
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| Ratings & Research |
Convenience drives online Holiday shopping
Nielsen Online reported online shopping's primary appeal is the convenience it offers. In an online survey, out of nearly 1,000 respondents, 81% indicated that the ability to shop anytime during the day was why they chose to shop online during the holiday season. Saving time was the next most popular reason to shop online, with 77% of respondents, followed by the ability to comparison shop and find things easily, with 61% and 56%, respectively. Only a minority of respondents, 46%, listed low prices as a reason to shop online rather than in-store. Even fewer respondents, 24%, cited low shipping costs. Respondents said that their 2007 online holiday spending would compose about the same share of their total holiday budgets as in 2006. 35% of respondents, the largest group, reported they will spend between 25 and 50% of their holiday budget shopping online. 33% of respondents expect to spend less than 25% of their overall holiday budget online.
Shoppers to make their mark on Black Friday
With Black Friday fast approaching, retailers are bracing for one of their busiest weekends of the year. According to the latest survey conducted by BIGresearch for the National Retail Federation, up to 132.9 million Americans will shop Friday, Saturday or Sunday this weekend. While 55.1 million people said they definitely plan to shop this weekend, 77.8 million said they may shop. Many of this year's post-Thanksgiving shoppers will be young adults 18-24, as nearly half of them (47.2%) said they definitely plan to shop the weekend after Thanksgiving.
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| Transactions |
608,230 WLTQ-AM Charleston SC from Citicasters Licenses LP, a subsidiary of Clear Channel Broadcasting Inc. (Mark Mays et al) to Indigo Radio LLC (Mark W. Jorgenson, Faith Jorgenson). Promissory note. [File date 11/1/07.]
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| Stock Talk |
Rocky day ends on the up side
Stock prices pitched up and down on Tuesday, but finally finished the day with small gains. That was based on hints from minutes of the last Fed meeting that another rate cut could be coming, even though the last one was termed "a close call." The Dow Industrials rose 52 points, or 0.4%, to 13,010.
Radio stocks were modestly higher as well. The Radio Index gained 0.670, or 0.7%, to 103.058. Emmis had a rebound, up 5.9%. Salem rose 3.8%.
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| Radio Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Tuesday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Arbitron
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ARB
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51.13
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-0.23
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Google
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GOOG
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648.54
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+22.69
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Beasley
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BBGI
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6.97
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-0.06
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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19.76
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-0.16
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| CBS CI. B |
CBS |
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26.28
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-0.29
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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8.74
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-0.03
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| CBS CI. A |
CBSa |
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26.34
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-0.33
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Lincoln Natl.
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LNC
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58.60
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+0.31
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| Citadel |
CDL |
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2.26 |
+0.02 |
Radio One, Cl. A
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ROIA
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2.06
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-0.10
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Clear Channel
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CCU
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33.80
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+0.30
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Radio One, Cl. D
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ROIAK
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2.10
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-0.08
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Cox Radio
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CXR
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12.13
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+0.08
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Regent
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RGCI
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2.11
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-0.04
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Cumulus
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CMLS
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9.13
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-0.16
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Saga Commun.
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SGA
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7.11
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+0.28
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Debut Bcg.
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DBTB
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0.80
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unch
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Salem Comm.
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SALM
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7.77
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+0.28
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Disney
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DIS
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31.55
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+0.30
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Sirius Sat. Radio
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SIRI
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3.48
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-0.03
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Emmis
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EMMS
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4.16
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+0.23
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Spanish Bcg.
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SBSA
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2.00
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+0.10
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Entercom
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ETM
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17.16
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-0.04
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SWMX
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SMWX
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0.02
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unch
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Entravision
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EVC
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7.30
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unch
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Westwood One
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WON
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2.09
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+0.03
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Fisher
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FSCI
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43.18
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+0.18
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XM Sat. Radio
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XMSR
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14.06
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-0.05
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]
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Below the Fold
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Ad Business Report
Article looks at radio
Benefiting from WGA strike...
Media Business Report
Q3 newspaper ad revenue
Falls 7.4%; online ad revs up Revs from print ads fell 9% to...
Media Markets & Money
AM, LMA partner
Figure in small sale as KMCL-AM in Donnelly ID is going...
Washington Business Report
Feingold joins the chorus
For rulemaking brakes, latest to fire off a letter to FCC Martin urging him...
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Stations for Sale
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Seller Financing Available
Mississippi FM
Buy or Lease Studios, Tower
Gordon Rice Associates
(843) 884-3590
or E-mail Gordon Rice
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in our daily epapers.
Contact
June Barnes
[email protected]
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Radio Media Moves
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WFAN signs Girardi
New York Yankees manager Joe Girardi has signed a three-year deal with WFAN-AM New York to appear on the Mike and the Mad Dog Show. Throughout the championship season, Joe Girardi will appear with Mike & the Mad Dog Thursday afternoons at 5:05. During the off-season, Joe Girardi will do monthly updates from November through March. In addition to appearances on WFAN, Joe Girardi will also do a pre-game Manager's Report before all Yankees games on WFAN's sister station, WCBS-AM, the flagship station for the New York Yankees.
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RBR Radar 2007
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Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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Morris wants to talk trade-offs
Arbitron has yet to say anything publicly about the letter sent last week by four large radio groups demanding larger sample sizes to get PPM in-tabs up to targets (11/16/07 RBR #225), but RBR has received a copy of an email that Arbitron CEO Steve Morris sent to the four group heads. In it, Morris proposes having Arbitron President of Sales and Marketing Pierre Bouvard meet with them to hear just what they want in the new ratings service "and how you would rebalance the trade-offs." Morris's email stated that "trade-offs vs. costs" were among the things discussed extensively during the time that PPM was being developed. "It seems clear from your letter, however, that we need to go back and revisit previous assumptions about how the! service is to be built, and to make sure that we are doing this in a way that serves your needs," At least one of the broadcasters is not impressed by the response from Morris, and that is Cox Radio's Bob Neil who puts it on the line in an email sent to RBR. "We don't need to have a meeting.."
RBR observation: Have to agree with this statement from Bob Neil, "Again, I stress....no one is fighting electronic measurement. That train is gone." The time is right now to slow this train down before there is a massive accident which will not be pretty to watch. From the seat we are sitting in the legal department at Arbitron is working overtime. Recommend for all to read the email as this issue is not going away any time soon. Read the email in this issue page of RBR.
11/20/07 RBR #227
Martin has Trib scratching its head
Sam Zell, pictured, is trying to save potential fees and tax benefits by getting the Tribune privatization done by year's end. His crew is said to be "bafffled" at the unforeseen resistance coming from FCC Chairman Kevin Martin. Zell needs waivers in place to keep the company's existing broadcast/print combinations together. But Martin has balked at issuing them.
RBR observation: The rule change, or at least the timetable for it, may be in trouble anyway. It has attracted almost no unqualified support that we're aware of, instead drawing attacks from all sides, including those who think it goes to far and those who think it does not go far enough. It faces threatened stalling action from Capitol Hill and is a strong bet to head back to court, one way or the other. The issue is far from decided, and likely will still be far from decided, on 12/18/08. Tribune should not be held hostage, as even Democratic Commissioners Michael Copps and Jonathan Adelstein have said. Zell should be able to pursue his proposed transaction based on its merits, not Kevin Martin's tactical needs.
11/20/07 RBR #227
Ferguson back to Arbitron
I read Arbitron Sr. VP Thom Mocarsky's comments (11/15/07 RBR #224) about the issues we've had with Arbitron in Northern Michigan with great interest. His response was, in short, pure double speak. The central issue is Arbitron has a responsibility to insure the purity of its data sample and provide software that works properly. (see RBR Executive Comment)
11/19/07 RBR #226
How bad can it get?
The current Wall Street consensus is that October radio revenues fell about 3%, but CL King analyst Jim Boyle now thinks the drop will be more like 5%. He says the long-time weakness in the top 25 markets continues, with mid-size markets down 6% and small markets off 3%. The gap that Boyle had been tracking for some time between the large and small markets continues, but it has become narrower - and not because business got better in the big markets, because it got worse in the smaller ones.
RBR observation: What! Hard work, good programming, investment and promotion? Say it ain't so, Jim! We would also add sales training, recruitment and retention. It really comes down to getting back to the basics that built radio in the first place. Everyone pays lip-service to the need to invest in the product and people, but some of the largest companies haven't been doing much more than the lip-service part.
11/19/07 RBR #226
Uncertainty in cross-ownership land
When FCC Chairman unveiled his cross-ownership proposal, it looked like good news for combos in the top 20 markets, but we also noted its potential problems for similar pairings in the vast majority of markets outside of the elite group. It turns out we weren't the only ones with questions: Multimedia company Media General is also waiting "for the FCC to provide clarity." The rub comes from Martin's comments to reporters that even as the rules are relaxed in big markets, in smaller markets with generally fewer media voices, the current restrictions would remain on the books and when waiver applications are before the commission in those locales, the presumption would be against approval.
11/19/07 RBR #226
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RBR Classifieds
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Ad Sales Rep
Imagine Media Ad Sales Without - Long Commutes, 8:30 Sales Meetings, Bonus Spots, or selling Print in an Electronic medium. More Reasons to consider Selling Advertising with RBR. Honestly, we are so busy we can not service all the accounts. Can you help us? Our Budgets Are Realistic. Compensation plan is good. If you are good, our Compensation plan is Great. If you are Great, our Compensation plan is Unbelievable! In confidence, contact Publisher Jim Carnegie at [email protected].
Associate Web Editor
Ideal candidate will work with our News Team developing / delivering quality web & e-paper content on a daily basis requiring a tremendous amount of creativity, flexibility and an ability to work on a deadline. Skills: Intermediate understanding of how websites, web pages are constructed and ability to write "News" ready copy. Plus, important, must be a strong communicator both Verbal / Written and able to manage multiple tasks. See Radio Careers
Additional Positions
Available in RBR Classifieds.
See Radio Careers.
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