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Volume 23, Issue 6, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
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Tuesday Morning January 10th, 2006
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Radio News ®
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 Emmis' guidance disappoints
Financial results for fiscal Q3, which ended November 30, 2005, were good, but it was guidance from Emmis Communications about its current quarter which worried Wall Street and sent the company's stock lower yesterday. Pro forma radio revenues were up 4% in fiscal Q3, but the company is only looking for 1-2% growth in fiscal Q4, running through the end of next month. At Bear Stearns, analyst Victor Miller immediately lowered the stock to "peer perform" from his previous "outperform." He now expects fiscal Q4 EBITDA to be only 16.7 million, rather than 19.3 million. Miller worries that Emmis faces "too many issues": slowing radio growth, higher-than-expected expense growth in Chicago (to launch a new morning show on WLUP-FM) and the need to sell its three remaining TV stations in Orlando, Honolulu and New Orleans.
Emmis execs cautious about ad market
National radio business was stronger than local in fiscal Q3 for Emmis Communications, but company officials told analysts in their quarterly conference call that the strength for national was due more to the company's collection of stations, rather than any trend for the industry. Also, the situation has now reversed, with local a bit stronger. Looking further ahead,  Emmis Radio President Rick Cummings said national is currently pacing flat for fiscal Q1, which begins in March. Since auto fell to #2 for the quarter, we wondered what was #1. Cummings told RBR it was Media, which jumped 19% for the quarter. However, he believes that's an anomaly and that auto will again be the #1 category in the current quarter.
RBR observation: We stated yesterday that the RBR eyes focus on Emmis as the temperature reading for the radio business and now we will have to take into account the wind chill factor. It is going to be a cold 2006 as many conference calls on the way will demonstrate that there is a cold wind blowing through Naples this year. Bear Sterns has already taken their first step and it will not surprise us at RBR to see others follow their recommendation and not just Emmis but many in the radio business. Radio will have to find new ways and use new media technology to face this problem with national spot giving the agency more accountability with ROI.
FM pirate unable to pass the buc
A Philadelphia man has been hit with the standard 10K fine for operating an FM station without a license. The pirate's notice of apparent liability was promoted to forfeiture order status in the face of his conflicting testimony. Following up on a complaint, FCC agents traced the 107.7 mHz signal to an Oakmont St. residence and confirmed that it was using power in the license-required range. They also said they received a confession from operator Louis Gentile, who "admitted that he operated a radio station on 107.7 mHz on May 6, 2004 without a license." Upon being notified that he owed the government 10K, Gentile responded that he never admitted to anything. The FCC decided his unsupported denial was not credible. The agents traced the signal to the residence - - Gentile's residence, and also noted the presence of a radio transmitting antenna on the roof and coaxial cable leading down to the basement.
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 Swann dives into PA governor's race
ABC football commentator Lynn Swann, who is considerably more famous for his role on powerhouse Pittsburgh Steeler NFL teams in the 70s and 80s, is looking to turn his statewide fame into a plus as he seeks the Republican nomination for governor. Swann did well in a party caucus, one of several which will be held before primary elections are held. Observers are watching to see if the party will go with Swann or main challenger ex-Lt. Gov. William Scranton, thus avoiding a big primary battle. Whoever prevails - - Swann, Scranton or someone else - - will be going up against an entrenched and well-financed sitting Democrat in Ed Rendell, who is thought to be sitting on a warchest in the tens of millions and who raised about 40M last time out, according to the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.
RBR observation: Two big races at once in PA may be good news for radio, as extra competition for TV time could lead to radio use as a quick-strike alternative. And a high-profile gubernatorial race will only add to the tsunami of political cash flowing over the Keystone State, which is already home of the biggest US Senate battle of the year as Bob Casey (D) attempts to unseat Rick Santorum (R-PA) in what is expected to be a 50M battle. Many state Republicans are not anxious for a protracted primary battle - - they'd rather spend campaign cash going after Rendell, not one another - - but for broadcasters, either scenario will probably result in the same political windfalls, and the same danger of choking traditional clients off the airwaves, at least during the campaign's peak weeks.
Lighting a fire under Mark Mays
 Will he be roasted to a crisp...or merely well done? The John Bayliss Broadcast Foundation has announced the line-up of roasters for its March 23rd roasting of Clear Channel CEO Mark Mays to raise money for the foundation's scholarship program. One is brother Randall Mays, CFO of the company, who presumably has some tales of his elder sibling's younger days. Also participating in the roasting process from Clear Channel will be CC Radio CEO John Hogan and talk host Glenn Beck. Since he doesn't get a paycheck with Clear Channel written on it, roaster Peter Smyth, CEO of Greater Media, could be the evening's wild card. Once again, Regent Communications CEO Bill Stakelin will be master of ceremonies.
The end of an era
One of the pioneers of talk radio is leaving his place behind the microphone. Bob Grant announced his retirement after 58 years in radio, most recently spending nearly 10 years at WOR-AM New York. Grant began in radio in Chicago and later worked in LA, but became most famous after he moved to New York and became a talk host - - never afraid to voice his opinion - - first on WMCA-AM, then WABC-AM and finally WOR-AM. His last show will be this Friday (1/13). "The legendary Bob Grant will always enjoy the utmost respect and sincere gratitude of WOR/Buckley Radio for a job well done," said WOR VP/GM Bob Bruno.
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| Wall Street Media Business Report TM |
Emmis beat expectations for fiscal Q3
Publishing was the surprise powerhouse for growth at Emmis Communications in fiscal Q3, which ended November 30, 2005, while radio results were in line with expectations. (TV is now reported as a discontinued operation as Emmis sells off its stations.) Thus, acting CFO David Newcomer was proud to announce that the company beat expectations for earnings per share from continuing operations by two pennies, with a single cent to the positive side. Pro forma radio revenues were up 4% to 76.4 million. Publishing revenues (Emmis owns several city and regional magazines) shot up 18% to 24.5%.
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Ad Business Report TM
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Cox Target Media, Chrysler Group
partner for female campaign
Cox Target Media (CTM), a direct marketing company, announced it has partnered with the DaimlerChrysler MarketCenter division to promote new car sales among female consumers. An ad sales program has been launched between the 3,900 U.S. Chrysler Group automotive dealers and the nearly 200 U.S.-based Valpak ad sales franchise owners as well as the national Valpak sales department. The full-line of Valpak products are offered to Chrysler Group dealers through this new, special program and partnership. Valpak was selected for its reach to women, the direct marketer's primary audience for nearly 40 years. Through this special program, Valpak products are available via a customized Web site linked into Chrysler Group's Intranet site for Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge dealers. Presently, nearly 40 million Valpak households are located within a five-mile radius of U.S. Chrysler Group dealerships. This program is a new, cooperative advertising partnership established by CTM and rolled out nationally to the direct marketer's Valpak franchise network. Templated new car ads, designed by the direct marketer, and pre-set recommended targeting tools have been developed for Chrysler Group dealers to use in their Valpak advertising. Rates and detailed mailing information broken down to mail-carrier routes are available as well. Via zip codes, Chrysler Group dealers will be directed to their local Valpak offices. Customized Geographical Information Science (GIS) audience research is an essential feature of CTM's service and this program. Daimler Group dealers will identify and target key demos within the Valpak audience by Neighborhood Trade Areas (NTA), a single zone of 10,000 households. Dealers will choose from among several audience profiles to tie into the line or model of automobiles they wish to feature in their advertising campaigns.
 Stern: inventory will be limited
Sirius Satellite Radio went commercial free for Howard's first day yesterday. The satcaster is telling advertisers it will air no more than six spots per hour to avoid clutter and keep audiences tuned in. Infinity stations had been playing upwards of 18 minutes of ads per hour. Vermont Teddy Bear, which has signed on for a full year with Stern on Sirius. Comedy Central, also expects to advertise on his new show, reported The NY Post. Advertisers are reportedly spending 10,000-15,000 bucks for a Stern live read - - substantially less than what it cost for airing on his terrestrial radio show (20,000). A pre-recorded spot sells for as much as 6,500.
RBR observation: Even though Sirius only has 3.3 million subscribers - - many of which aren't going to listen to Stern - - the rate he's getting isn't too bad. More Direct Response advertisers - - which traditionally find ROI tough to achieve with the medium - - will likely want to test the show at the lower rate. The buy will be quick and easy to measure effectiveness and ROI - - it's a completely national footprint now and may be easier to plan and buy (another issue which spooks DR advertisers is the complexity of buying national spot).
A look at Super Bowl ad stats
The final teams for Super Bowl XL have yet to be determined but one thing is for sure...no matter who is playing, there will be a substantial number of viewers tuning in to see the year's hottest commercials.
| Read More... |
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| Washington Media Business Report TM |
 More decency on Capitol Hill agenda
The Senate Commerce Committee is set to hold its third hearing on broadcast indecency, with cable and satellite TV guys added to the hot seats this time. Here's the witness list for the January 19th hearing:
Panel 1:
Jack Valenti, Motion Picture Association of America
Charles W. Ergen, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, EchoStar Communications Corporation
David Cohen, Executive Vice President, Comcast Corporation
Panel 2:
Bruce Reese, Joint Board Chairman, National Association of Broadcasters, Chief Executive Officer, Bonneville International
Brent Bozell, President, Parents Television Council
Martin Franks, Executive Vice President, CBS
Alan Rosenberg, President, Screen Actors Guild
Jeff McIntyre, Legislative and Federal Affairs Officer, Public Policy Office, American Psychological Association
Listeners engage in noncom combat
Non-profit WDET-FM Detroit, licensed to Wayne University, ran its public pledge drive as usual last fall. Then, six weeks after its conclusion, it announced programming changes. The result - - a group of disgruntled listeners who pledged their support based on the old schedule want their money back, and they're going to court to get it, according to reports. The station is said to get 90% of its operating budget from private contributions. Station management said there was no deliberate timing for the changes. The protesting listeners want music programming returned to the schedule, and is scheduling a 1/13/06 demonstration to get their point of view before the public. According to the New York Times, the station is replacing music with NPR fare, but says it added the music itself as a replacement for other noncommercial syndicated talk programs.
RBR observation: It's the non-profit version of a format flip that sends advertisers scrambling for make-goods. Our take: A station cannot be expected to consult its entire audience when making program decisions. Although NYT notes a precedent of a noncom station holding public hearings before making major program changes, at some point station management must have the ability to make decisions about what does and does not go on the air.
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| Media Markets & Money TM |
Changing of the 'gaard at KBID
John Pierce has checked in with another closing. Gore-Overgaard has taken the keys to KBID-AM Bakersfield from American General Media for 925K. The acquisition marks the third outpost for the group, which has been both a buyer and a seller over the past decade or so.
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| Entertainment Media Business Report TM |
MSpot launches Sports mobile radio service
MSpot officially kicked-off the first streaming mobile radio service created for sports fans, MSpot Sports. MSpot Sports is the latest addition to MSpot's line-up of mobile radio services, which currently includes an all-music service with more than 30 commercial-free channels. Through partnerships with Sporting News Radio, Fantasy Planet, sports radio stations and others content providers, MSpot Sports features live news and up-to-the-minute scores as well as on-demand highlights, feature insights and analysis sports celebs and experts.
| See the lineup here |
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| Internet Media Business Report TM |
 KCRW to video podcast, too
Beginning today, KCRW will offer video podcasts of live sessions performed by unsigned, independent, and select established bands on its signature music show, Morning Becomes Eclectic, hosted by Nic Harcourt. The first video podcasts will made available on iTunes, AOL Music and KCRW.com. KCRW began offering podcasts of Morning Becomes Eclectic live sessions in August 2005.
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| Ratings & Research |
Council for Research Excellence issues RFP
The Council for Research Excellence, created by Nielsen Media Research in 2005, serves as an independent forum for Nielsen to gain greater insight into industry perspectives on R&D development and collaborate further with its clients in R&D efforts. The issues identified for this RFP by the Media Consumption committee include media satisfaction and engagement, map of consumers' use of media by time of day and season of year, use of new technologies such as DVRs, VOD and video consumption both in-home and out-of-home. The Council committee charged with addressing Media Consumption is co-chaired by Shari Anne Brill, VP/Director of Programming at Carat USA and Steve Sternberg, EVP/Director of Audience Analysis at Magna Global.
"The very definition of television viewing, and the landscape overall, is rapidly changing as DVRs and related time-shifted viewing, VOD, and a host of new mobile content providers are about to have a major impact on how, where, and when people receive and watch video content. Through this RFP, the Council for Research Excellence is attempting to gauge the effects of these evolving changes on overall media habits, media engagement, and other media dynamics as they occur," said Sternberg. In regard to the availability of the RFP, Howard Shimmel, SVP/Client Insights at Nielsen said, "We look forward to the results of this study, which should provide Nielsen Media Research and the industry with greater insights on media consumption and help decide priorities for the measurement of emerging and new technologies." All proposals are to be submitted by February 10, 2006. Moving ahead in 2006, The Council will be launching additional RFPs from its other committees, including Non-Response and Valid Use of Data.
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| Traffic |
What's new for 2006? - Part I
As many GMs and traffic managers will be looking to update their traffic and billing systems this year, RBR/TVBR asked a few current (and new) vendors to detail their latest and upcoming offerings. As well, what sets their systems apart from the rest.
| Read More |
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| RBR Stats |
Digital radio shipments to top 22 million by 2009
Worldwide, the combined market of both digital satellite and terrestrial radio will grow from approximately 5 million unit shipments in 2004 to 22 million unit shipments in 2009, reports In-Stat. The primary drivers for this growth will be new and compelling content, data services, price erosion for digital radio receivers, and digital radio provider partnerships with new car manufacturers, the high-tech market research firm says. "In the US, satellite radio is driving the digital radio market," says Stephanie Guza, In-Stat analyst. "In other markets, most notably in the UK, terrestrial digital audio broadcasting is driving it. The launch of Digital Multimedia Broadcast (DMB) services in Japan and Korea, along with Increased promotional activity in Singapore, Australia and Taiwan over the next year, will drive digital radio shipments in Asia."
RBR observation: While 600+ stations may now broadcast in HD, the numbers of HD Radio receivers is still appalling. Broadcasters are trying to hype it the best they can on their end with the HD Radio Digital Alliance and donating on air spots, but the receiver price is still too high-especially for the HD multicast receivers which are just coming out now. If the price doesn't come down soon and auto deals made, HD Radio will be somewhat meaningless to the average consumer. Only BMW offers the OEM HD option so far.
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| Transactions |
1.2M KCLE-AM Dallas-Ft. Worth (Cleburne TX); KEOR-AM Atoka OK; KJSA-AM Mineral Wells TX; and KREL-AM Quanah TX from First Broadcasting Capital Partners, a subsidiary of First Broadcasting Investment Partners (Hal Rose, SVP) to M&M Broadcasters Ltd. (Gary L. Moss, George W. Marti). 60K escrow, balance in cash at closing. Price will increase 500K if FCC grants CP to upgrade KCLE-AM. Duopoly with KHFX-AM Burleson TX, and KTFW-FM Glen Rose TX, although sale of FM to LKCM Radio Group is said to be pending. [File date 12/19/05.]
100K KLDS-AM Falfurrias TX from The Evangelistic Worship Center (Lee de los Santos) to La Radio Cristiana Network Inc. (Paulino Bernal). 10K down payment, balance in cash at closing. Duopoly with KFGM-FM Falfurrias TX, KMFM-FM Premont TX. Seller is non-profit, buyer is for-profit, although it also is licensee under other names as a non-profit. LMA 10/1/05. [File date 12/16/05.]
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| Stock Talk |
Dow shoots up; Radio stocks uncertain
General Motors led the way as blue chip stocks advanced on Monday. The Dow Industrials rose 53 points to 11,012 - - breaking the 11,000 barrier for the first time since 2001.
Meanwhile, soft guidance from Emmis held back radio stocks and sent Emmis' stock down 7.3%. The Radio Index declined 0.830, or 0.5%, to 183.646. Other down stocks included Saga, down 4.9%, and Salem, off 3.3%.
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| Radio Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Monday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Arbitron
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ARB
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38.85
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+0.23
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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24.15
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+0.05
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Beasley
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BBGI
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13.76
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+0.31
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Interep
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IREP
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0.39
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+0.02
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| CBS CI. B |
CBS |
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27.03
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-0.20
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Jeff-Pilot
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JP
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58.07
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-0.15
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| CBS CI. A |
CBSa |
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26.98
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-0.17
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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10.80
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+0.03
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| Citadel |
CDL |
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13.48 |
-0.08 |
Radio One, Cl. A
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ROIA
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10.83
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+0.19
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Clear Channel
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CCU
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32.47
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-0.16
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Radio One, Cl. D
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ROIAK
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14.18
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+0.22
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Cox Radio
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CXR
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14.30
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+0.12
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Regent
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RGCI
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4.78
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+0.12
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Cumulus
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CMLS
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13.00
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+0.15
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Saga Commun.
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SGA
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10.40
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-0.54
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Disney
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DIS
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25.00
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+0.26
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Salem Comm.
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SALM
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17.09
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-0.59
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Emmis
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EMMS
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19.18
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-1.51
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Sirius Sat. Radio
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SIRI
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6.57
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+0.03
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| Entercom |
ETM
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30.83
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-0.08
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Spanish Bcg.
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SBSA
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5.21
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-0.01
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Entravision
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EVC
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7.18
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+0.16
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Univision
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UVN
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31.62
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+0.58
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Fisher
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FSCI
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42.04
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unch
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Westwood One
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WON
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16.38
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-0.20
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Gaylord
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GET
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44.40
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-0.09
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XM Sat. Radio
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XMSR
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29.94
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+1.99
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to radionews@rbr.com
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Below the Fold
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Ad Business Report
Cox Target Media
Chrysler Group partner for female campaign...
A look at Super Bowl ad stats
Teams for Super Bowl XL have yet to be determined but...
Washington Media Business Report
Listeners engage in noncom combat
Non-profit WDET-FM Detroit runs drives then changes format, Oh Boy...
Media Markets & Money
Changing of the 'gaard at KBID
Gore-Overgaard has taken the keys...
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Radio Media Moves
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 Knight upped
at Greater Media
Buzz Knight, who was already Operations Manager for WROR-FM & WBOS-FM Boston and WMGK-FM & WMMR-FM and advisor for all of Greater Media's rock-based stations, has been given even more responsibility. He's now Vice President of Program Development for the company, charged with developing innovative content for all of its stations and new HD-2 channels.
Programmers upped
Tom Land, Operations Manager at Journal Broadcast Group's Omaha radio stations and Rick Belcher, VP/Operations at Journal's Milwaukee radio stations, have been named Senior Group Programmers for the company.
Bressler lands new gig
We now know what former Viacom CFO Richard Bressler is going to do after deciding early last year not to stay around for the company's split (2/2/05 RBR #23). He's now surfaced as a Managing Director of Thomas H. Lee Partners, one of the nation's oldest private equity firms, and will head its Strategic Resource Group, providing various services to companies that the firm chooses to invest in.
Monroe
managing KPIG
Mapleton Communications has promoted Ed Monroe to Vice President of National Sales for California and also Market Manager for KPIG-AM San Francisco. |
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Stations for Sale
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Atlanta & Charlotte
New AM CPs Available
Daytimers/Great Dial Positions
Call Gordon Rice Associates
(843) 884-3590, or email
gordon@gordonriceassociates.com
Suburban NYC AM
Time Leased, profitable.
Comes w. 14 acre T/studio
site. 1.6M firm.
salesgroup@beld.net or
lv msg @ 781-848-4201
NYC Prime Radio
Time for Lease
7 days a week available p/t-f/t Business, Foreign language, religious, Health, Infomercials accepted. 212-769-1925 tcntalk@aol.com
TV & Satellite time also available. Station Inquiries welcome
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More News Headlines
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Service to America
call out
The NAB Education Foundation (NABEF) is seeking entries from local stations for the 2006 Service to America Awards, which recognizes outstanding community service by radio and TV stations. "Local radio and television stations generate an astounding nine billion annually in community service.In 2005, broadcasters were widely praised for our life-saving coverage of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and for raising more than 200 million in victim relief," said NAB President and CEO David K. Rehr. Finalists and winners will be honored at the Service to America Awards Gala, June 12th in Washington, DC. Info at www.nabef.org.
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January RBR/TVBR Digital Magazine
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2006 - Time Waits
For No One!
Exclusive on Clutter
What have we done???
Ms Jean Pool, EVP/Director of North American Operations for Universal McCann and Chairman of the Media Policy at the AAAAs outlines and truly kicks all in gear - "Just why is it we're hell bent on irritating the very people that we are trying to sell our products and services to? Clutter is the death of the media." - page 12 Solutions Magazine
Read RBR/TVBR in 2 simple steps:
1.Create a simple account with Zinio and download the Zinio Reader.
2. You can then download the
January Issue of RBR/TVBR
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RBR Radar 2005
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Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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Negative on Radio continues;
Lehman Brothers official coverage of the radio stock sector - - and doesn't see much to excitement except for CBS, Univision and Radio One, analyst Anthony DiClemente isn't recommending the other radio stocks. After seeing only flat revenues for radio in 2005, he's looking for only 1% growth in 2006.
RBR observation: There has been plenty of negative to go around from '05 and the Wall Street saying applies - The Fish Stinks at the Head. Radio CEO's now must be held accountable.
01/09/06 RBR #5
XM facing Sirius challenge
XM fell just short of its 2005 subscriber goal of six million, but says it's now over the mark. The explanation from the company is that sales through the holidays would have put XM over the target, but some units weren't actually activated until after the New Year began.
RBR observation: Note that both satellite radio companies are predicting that they'll add about three million subscribers this year. But given their relative positions, that means that Sirius is expecting to have twice the growth rate of XM, just as it did last year. Of course, we at RBR will be watching another metric even more closely. Both companies have also told Wall Street that they'll reach cash flow break even this year. We wait to see if that happens. But don't you just love how Wall Street gulps down the excuses of both XM and Sirius. Time to hold Wall Street gurus accountable and their firms.
01/06/06 RBR #4
How much growth in 2006?
Not much
After her previous comments that there is no light at the end of the tunnel for radio it's not surprising that Wachovia Securities isn't looking for a lot of growth in 2006. Forecast for radio revenues to rise 2.3%. Only one percentage point (100 basis points) is attributable to growth in core business, with the remainder split between Clear Channel - - 80 basis points as it laps a full year of LIM comps - - and political, good for 50 basis points. As for that core growth, it is coming from "slight increases in advertising rates" - - but that assumes stable inventory levels. That could fall if stations lard up on inventory, but might rise if spot loads are cut further.
RBR observation: 2.3% ain't great, but it's a lot better than the flat showing that radio is almost certain to post for 2005 when the final month is tallied. And we have to admit that 2.3% is a lot more realistic than the 4% growth that Universal McCann's Bob Coen is forecasting for radio in 2006. Remember back when we were discussing when radio would get back to "normal" growth of around 7% a year? Anyone want to place a bet on what year that's going to happen? Be prepared for a hard year and stay with RBR as we will be by your side every inch of this long walk.
01/05/06 RBR #3
'05 - Tough year for radio stocks
Wall Street traders beat up on radio stocks in 2005 - - and not without justification. Clear Channel went through some major restructuring in 2005. RBR's Radio Index began falling in January and never looked back. By the time the year was over, our index of 15 companies whose main business is radio had fallen 21.1%. The year's worst performers were Spanish Broadcasting System, which plunged 51.6% as investors punished the radio company severely for announcing plans to enter TV as well, and Interep, a penny stock which dropped 52% in the face of a terrible year for national sales and some prominent client defections.
01/04/06 RBR #2
'06 No light at the end of the tunnel
RAB's report that radio revenues were flat in November was no surprise, but the issue now is figuring out when things will get better. Wachovia Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker is looking for that light at the end of the tunnel, but she doesn't see it yet.
12/29/05 RBR #252
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Sales Manager
Reno Radio Representatives is seeking candidates. The FM station is one of the markets best rated and the company encourages both women and minorities to apply.
See Radio Careers
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