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Welcome to RBR's Daily Epaper
Volume 23, Issue 7, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
Wednesday Morning January 11th, 2006

Radio News ®

Fallout continues for Emmis
More Wall Street analysts have reduced their forecast numbers for Emmis Communications, based on the guidance the company gave Monday (1/10/06 RBR #6). "Fiscal Q4 radio revenue growth guidance of 1-2% is below our 3.3% forecast and signals a weak start to 2006 for the radio industry," noted Marci Ryvicker at Wachovia Securities. She said that while Emmis continues to outperform its competitors in its radio markets, she's concerned that that overperformance gap is narrowing. She also warns that if CEO Jeff Smulyan and his investment team, which includes a financial investment by Emmis, wins the bidding for the Washington Nationals baseball team, it will be negative for the stock. And she wants to see the TV station sell-off completed, which she estimates will bring 310 million for the remaining three stations. So, while not changing her "Market Perform" rating on the stock, Ryvicker has reduced her radio revenue target for fiscal Q4 (December-February) to 65.4 million from 66.2 million and total revenue for the company to 86.4 million from 86.8 million. At Goldman Sachs, analyst Mark Wienkes is also maintaining his "In Line" rating for Emmis. He too sees a successful baseball bid as a bad thing for the stock and has cut his fiscal Q4 expectations based on the company's soft guidance. He's now expecting radio revenues of 65 million, up only 1% over a year ago.

Could broadcast stocks fall double digits this year?
That's the warning to investors from Harris Nesbitt analyst Lee Westerfield, who says new mobile tech and advertising risks create an equity downside of 15-20% in 2006 for broadcast stocks. That's on top of the losses that almost all radio and TV stocks suffered in 2005. Just back from the Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas, Westerfield sees threats from mobile broadband and PC-to-TV video convergence. "Announcements at CES foreshadow events ahead in 2006, such as a) deepening web media partnerships between mobile broadband players and the likes of Yahoo! and Google; and b) launch of Microsoft Vista [new operating system] with its media functionality this coming fall," the analysts said in a note to investors. As such, Westerfield is maintaining his "Negative" rating on the broadcasting sector (although he does like the Hispanic specialists). He expects pure-play radio company values to contract from their current multiples of around 11.5 times EBITDA to 10 times and pure-play TV from 10.5 to nine times.

RBR observation: We and a few others have been saying for years that mobile broadband, not satellite radio, is the big threat that terrestrial radio is going to have to deal with. In fact, we don't see how either XM or Sirius will be able to stay in business once mobile broadband becomes widespread. Terrestrial radio broadcasters will have to figure out how to compete with their own broadband offerings, as well as HD Radio, to compete as thousands of Internet audio streams become available to every car driving around in their local market.

Piece of pie for everyone
as air wars heat up

Campaign for America's Future and Public Campaign Action Fund are combining their resources, and are taking their case directly to the home districts of a pair of Republican legislators - - Tom Delay (R-TX) and Bob Ney (R-OH). They're using 115K worth of radio, TV, cable and billboards to make their point. In Ohio, radio is being used to put pressure on Ney in his district east of the state capital of Columbus. A billboard is also being purchased on the Heath OH exit of I-70, literally targeting the rep where he lives. In Delay's district in the suburbs of Houston, TV and cable are the media of choice as they pressure the former majority leader to resign. Four Houston network affiliates and four cable news channels are in on the buy. Meanwhile, Sen. Lincoln Chaffee, who is on the Senate Judiciary Committee and will help decide the fate of Samuel Alito, has already been the target of liberal groups. Now, he's getting it from the other side, in the form of a radio barrage from Family Research Council urging him to give the judge a fair hearing.

RBR observation: Notice that, despite the fact that this story represents a tiny sliver of what figures to be a huge political year, four media categories were able to belly up to the table for some of the action. And size is not necessarily a factor - - if you happen to be located in a hot spot - - notice that today one of them is large, one is small and one is in between - - then it may show up on your traffic list and your bottom line. Like we've been saying, location is everything, especially the way the nation's politics are going.


Major mod knocks AM out of auction
Koch Broadcasting Corp. participated in AM Auction No. 84, hoping to upgrade its WSDS-AM Salem Township MI, moving it from there to Plymouth MI. In more recognizable terms, the move would take the station from Ann Arbor to Detroit. However, Koch's plans for the 1480 kHz facility turned out to be mutually exclusive with plans of other would-be change-makers, throwing it into an auction scenario. Under that scenario, Koch was prohibited from making any major modifications to its FCC Form 175. Koch subsequently closed on an announced 1.5M sale of the station to Birach Broadcasting (10/22/04 RBR #207), which pressed to participate in the auction. But guess what? Selling the station, and changing the name on the licensee blank of Form 175 constitutes a major modification. Quoting the rules and regs, the FCC explained, "Major amendments include changes in ownership of the applicant that would constitute an assignment or transfer of control..." Birach argued that surely it was in the public interest to allow more bidders into the process - - something which would tend to give the US Treasury a bigger payday. No, countered the FCC, which said that any public benefit is outweighed by providing "...all auction applicants with reasonable certainty as to the fair and predictable application of our auction rules and procedures."

RBR observation: In other words, you can't get into a mutually-exclusive bidding situation and suddenly decide to sell your interest to King Midas or Richie Rich or Bill Gates, or anyone else who may be able to disrupt the odds for the other bidders. If you're in the midst of such a situation, it is imperative to keep your M&A gunpowder dry until the process is concluded.

NABEF to honor Gulf
Coast Broadcasters

Hurricane Katrina is a natural disaster that will be remembered for decades to come - - perhaps for centuries. Right in the middle of the storm were the radio and TV broadcasters of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama's Gulf Coast regions, struggling to provide emergency communications to their hard-hit communities, even as many of them lost their own homes and possessions to the storm. Indeed, it also brought unprecedented cooperation between broadcasters, as those knocked off the air worked with those still on the air and those on the air helped to get their damaged competitors back on the air. Now those broadcasters are going to be recognized for their public service efforts before, during and after Katrina at the 8th annual NAB Education Foundation's (NABEF) Service to America Celebration, June 12th in Washington, DC. On hand to accept the Service to America Samaritan Award will be Louise Munson, Louisiana Association of Broadcasters President and CEO; Jackie Lett, Mississippi Association of Broadcasters President; Sharon Tinsley, Alabama Broadcasters Association Executive Director; and Whit Adamson, National Alliance of State Broadcasters Associations President-elect. "At great personal risk, Gulf Coast broadcasters stayed on air and provided critical life-saving information to citizens affected by Hurricane Katrina. Employees lost homes and waded through alligator and snake-infested waters to keep their signal on air and their communities informed. We salute these broadcasters for their heroic service and dedication in response to the worst natural disaster in our nation's history," said NAB President and CEO David Rehr.

RBR observation: The stories out of the New Orleans area were truly amazing - - and a reminder of why broadcasting is more than just a business. If you didn't get around to reading it, pull out your copy of the November 2005 issue of Radio & Television Business Report for "Vigilance in a time of crisis." If anyone deserves an award, the radio and TV folks in the Gulf Coast do.


Ad Business Report TM

Search engine marketing
revs up online advertising

Advertisers in North America spent 5.75 billion on search engine marketing in 2005, a 44% increase over 2004, according to a report from the Search Engine Marketing Professional Organization. SEMPO projected that this spending in North America will reach 11 billion in 2010. The survey found that Google and Yahoo still command the biggest share of Internet advertising. The annual totals include payments to search engines and search-related media companies, marketing agencies and in-house expenditure in support of such programs, paid placement, paid inclusion, organic search engine optimization and marketing technology platforms, says VNUNet. "This report confirms our belief that search engine marketing has almost single-handedly revived a flagging online advertising marketplace after the stock market crashed in 2000," said Sempo chairman Kevin Lee. "As consumers have become increasingly reliant on search engines to navigate the web, investors have shown a renewed interest in the digital technologies and in search marketing in particular." The bulk of the spending during 2005 was on paid placement, accounting for 83%, or 4.7 billion. While four out of five advertisers engaged in organic search engine optimization, this accounted for approximately 11% of overall spending. Paid inclusion accounted for just 4% of overall spending, and leasing, agency offerings and in-house development accounted for less than 2%. "The data shows that 2005 was a good year for search, but 2006 should be a great year," said Gord Hotchkiss, research committee co-chairman at Sempo. "The growth has largely been driven by maturation in existing segments, but future growth will be fuelled by an increased search presence from major advertisers and new monetization strategies from the major engines. The increased competitiveness in the marketplace will really drive the industry forward in the coming year."

GM cuts prices on most models
At the Detroit Auto Show yesterday, GM announced nearly across-the-board price cuts on 80% of its models. Starting today, sticker prices will fall on all Chevrolet, Buick and GMCs, and most Pontiac products, allowing GM to step back from the promotions and buyer incentives it used in recent years. An ad campaign is likely to follow. "We are going to be more, let me say, judicious in our use of incentives. And we think this is going to get the focus back on the product," Rick Wagoner, (pictured) Chairman and CEO, told reporters. "It's a move that dealers want. Hopefully, we can take some of that edge off the boom-bust cycle of sales." "If anything, we weren't aggressive enough," Mark LaNeve, GM VP for North America vehicle sales, service and marketing, told reporters. "Over time, people will perceive that we have the best products at the best prices. That's what we want them to perceive over time." GM's Saab and Hummer lineup were spared the price cuts while at Saturn, only the Relay's price was reduced, reported MarketWatch. A Chevrolet Impala LS will see its sticker price reduced by 1,000 to 20,990, which is lower than a comparable Toyota Camry LE V6 at 23,320, GM said. In the truck market, the Silverado crew cab work truck will see one of the biggest price reductions at 25,490, down from 27,990. That price compares with 31,000 for a F-150 pickup from Ford. The 2007 Chevy Tahoe LS with a V8 will carry a sticker price of 33,900, fully 2,000 less than the 2006 version.

TicketsNow launches radio effort
TicketsNow, the marketplace for premium event tickets, is introducing a new series of radio ads themed on the positive personal experiences associated with having great seats at big events as part of a new marketing push in the competitive online ticket industry. The spots were written and produced by Chuck Blore, winner of more 500 major radio and television industry awards. The recently launched campaign was conceived following the analysis of focus group results and other research that provided insight to the public's attitudes toward desirable entertainment options and the importance of quality seat locations. A total of 12 60-second and 30-second spots of varying tone and style were produced and will be placed in accordance with formats and target demos.


Media Markets & Money TM
TV dealing: Where radio was over a decade ago
Young Broadcasting, which has the CBS network franchise in the Lansing DMA, will add certain elements of the other Viacom network, UPN, to its local operation via an Shared Services Agreement (SSA) with Spartan TV LLC. Young owns and operates CBS WLNS-TV 6 in the market, and under terms of the SSA, will be taking over "...advertising sales, traffic and engineering functions including operation of master control..." for Spartan's UPN WHTV-TV 18. Spartan will maintain control of WHTV's programming, which includes rights to broadcast games of the NBA Detroit Pistons and NHL Detroit Red Wings. This dovetails with the Young station, which gets NFL games due to its CBS affilation and also carries Michigan State football and basketball.

RBR observation: For those of you who may be unfamiliar with the term SSA, it is basically just another name for LMA, or local marketing agreement. Such arrangements are often used where an outright station acquisition is not possible do to local ownership caps. It allows stations to enjoy economies of scale by combining back room functions, or to maximize the efforts of a sales staff, while essentially retaining two separate owners. Spartan must clearly show that it is ultimately in control of WHTV to avoid regulatory problems. Such arrangements were commonly used in radio prior to the 1996 Telecom Act, at which time most of them were converted into full-fledged acquisitions (or mergers). Look for the same thing to happen to most TV SSAs if Kevin Martin is successful in his expected attempt to loosen the ownership ceiling for television broadcasters.

Weston puts Crockett in its pocket
...and Nicol Broadcasting puts 1.425M in its pocket, as Gregg Weston's group closes on its acquisition of KBHT-FM, according to Bill Whitley of Media Services Group, who handled brokerage chores. Weston already owns KVRP AM & FM in Stamford/Haskell TX in an unrated part of the state north of Abilene. Those stations have nothing whatsoever to do with KBHT-FM (7/28/05 RBR #147). Crockett is a crossroads town, also in an unrated portion of the state, about halfway between Lufkin-Nacogdoches to the east and Waco to the west.


Washington Media Business Report TM
Commerce Committee flips its sked
It can now be said that Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Dan Inouye (D-HI) are a couple of flip floppers, at least insofar as their Commerce Committee's extensive 2006 media hearings schedule is concerned. The duo announced that a 1/31/06 session has been moved to 1/24/06; likewise, a pair of hearings scheduled for the earlier date has moved to the later. A 10 AM session on Broadcast and Audio Flag moves from 1/31 to 1/24, while the two 1/24 sessions both go to 1/31. Video Franchising will take place at 10 AM, and Video Content at 2:30 PM.

| Here's the revised Committee's announced 2006 sked |


Internet Media Business Report TM
Chrysler Group to integrate iPods in cars
And you thought satellite was a big threat to traditional radio in the car: Eliminating the need for cords and mini RF-transmitter, The Chrysler Group announced it will be the first American automaker to provide full iPod integration as an option in most of its 2006 Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge models beginning this spring. Drivers will be able to listen to their iPod through the car's audio system, select their music by artist, album or playlist with radio or steering wheel controls and view selections on the radio's display. "We're thrilled that over three million Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge automobiles will offer great iPod connectivity in 2006," said Greg Joswiak, Apple's vice president of Worldwide iPod Product Marketing. "Over 40 percent of all cars sold in the US in 2006 will offer iPod connectivity." The optional iPod Integration Kit for Chrysler, Jeep and Dodge model lines will be available to customers for the MSRP of 175 bucks plus installation from authorized dealerships. In addition, the solution can be retrofit to many model year 2005 vehicles.

AOL buys video search company Truveo
AOL has closed a deal to purchase Truveo, a video search company, to provide better video search features on AOL.com, which recently launched a In2TV with companies like Warner Bros., which is a video service that will offer thousands of vintage TV episodes from old favorites. Truveo uses a technology called Visual Crawling, which automatically discovers video files and related info on web pages.

Apple unveils IPod radio remote
Apple has debuted a new remote control with FM radio capabilities for the iPod music player. The iPod Radio Remote enables users to skip tracks and adjust the volume of their iPod even when it's in a pocket or backpack and listen to FM radio stations while displaying station and song information on their iPod screen.


Entertainment Media Business Report TM
Sally Jessy Raphael launches 2/6
RBR Sources say Lifestyle Radio Network is about to finally sign Sally Jessy Raphael for the two hours immediately before Bruce Williams, 5pm to 7pm Weekdays. Start date looks like February 6th.


Ratings & Research
Dr. Tom Evans named NRRC Chairman
At its recent meeting, the Network Radio Research Council (NRRC) announced the selection of Dr. Tom Evans, SVP/Research, ABC Radio Networks as Chair for a one-year term. Charles Steinhauer, SVP, Research/Operations, Dial Communications-Global Media will serve as Vice Chair. The NRRC was created in 2001 to promote valid, reliable, and effective national radio audience measurement research. Its four original charter members include ABC Radio Networks, American Urban Radio Networks, Premiere Radio Networks, and Westwood One. In 2003, the NRRC welcomed Dial-Global to Council membership. In 2004, Jones MediaAmerica and Crystal Media Networks joined the NRRC.


Traffic
What's new for 2006? - Part II
As many GMs and traffic managers will be looking to update their traffic and billing systems this year, RBR/TVBR asked a few current (and new) vendors to detail their latest and upcoming offerings. As well, what sets their systems apart from the rest.
| Read More... |


Transactions
1.3B WQXI-AM & WSTR-FM Atlanta (Atlanta, Smyrna GA); WLYF-FM, WAXY-AM & WMXJ-FM Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-Hollywood (Miami, North Miami, Pompano Beach FL); KSON-AM & FM/KIFM-FM/KBZT-FM & KSOQ-FM San Diego (San Diego, Escondido CA); KKFN-AM/KYGO-FM, KCKK-AM/KQKS-FM & KJCD-FM Denver (Denver, Lakewood, Longmont CO); WBTV-TV, WBT-AM/WLNK-FM & WBT-FM Charlotte-Gastonia NC-Rock Hill SC (Charlotte NC, Chester SC); WWBT-TV Richmond VA; and WCSC-TV Charleston SC. 100% of Jefferson Pilot Corp. from Jefferson Pilot Corp. (Dennis R. Glass et al) to Lincoln National Corp. (Jon Boscia et al). Merger. Price of broadcast portion is RBR estimate, with estimated 820M allocated to radio properties and estimated 480M allocated to television properties. Duopolys in Miami, superduopolies in Denver, San Diego & duopoly-cross-ownership in Charlotte, all existing. [File date 12/13/05.]

2.911M KSPD-FM CP & KISI-FM CP Twin Falls--Burley-Jerome ID (Hazleton, Twin Falls ID) from College Creek Broadcasting Inc. (Bruce Buzil) to FM Idaho Co. LLC (Wendell M. Starke). 1,455,500 initial payment, balance in cash at closing. KTPD-FM CP is for Class C3 on 94.3 mHz with 4.9 kw @ 741'; KISI-FM CP is for Class C3 on 102.1 mHz with 5.2 kw @ 722'. LMA until closing. Market rated by Eastlan. [File date 12/13/05.]


Stock Talk
Emmis takes down radio stocks
Another big drop for Emmis - - 4.6% - - put downward pressure on other radio stocks. And it wasn't a great day for the rest of the market, either, with the Dow Industrials holding steady at 11,012.

The Radio Index fell 1.907, or 1%, to 181.739. Besides Emmis, Radio One fell 3.4% for its Class A stock and 3.5% for Class D. Beasley was off 2%.


Radio Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Tuesday

Company Symbol Close Change Company Symbol Close Change

Arbitron

ARB

39.65

+0.80

Hearst-Argyle

HTV

23.96

-0.19

Beasley

BBGI

13.49

-0.27

Interep

IREP

0.39

unch

CBS CI. B CBS

26.56

-0.47

Jeff-Pilot

JP

58.29

+0.22

CBS CI. A CBSa

26.49

-0.49

Journal Comm.

JRN

14.01

-0.05

Citadel CDL
13.30 -0.18

Radio One, Cl. A

ROIA

10.43

-0.37

Clear Channel

CCU

32.00

-0.47

Radio One, Cl. D

ROIAK

10.45

-0.38

Cox Radio

CXR

14.19

-0.11

Regent

RGCI

4.73

-0.05

Cumulus

CMLS

13.27

+0.27

Saga Commun.

SGA

10.20

-0.20

Disney

DIS

25.32

+0.32

Salem Comm.

SALM

16.96

-0.13

Emmis

EMMS

18.29

-0.89

Sirius Sat. Radio

SIRI

6.50

-0.07

Entercom

ETM

30.49

-0.34

Spanish Bcg.

SBSA

5.22

+0.01

Entravision

EVC

7.13

-0.05

Univision

UVN

31.20

-0.42

Fisher

FSCI

42.05

+0.01

Westwood One

WON

16.25

-0.13

Gaylord

GET

43.93

-0.47

XM Sat. Radio

XMSR

29.58

-0.36



Bounceback

Send Us Your OpinionsWe want to
hear from you.

This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]

Just to follow up on your Jan. 9th story on the proposed legislation that would enact a shield law in Washington State (1/9/06 RBR #5). Current protection is minimal, at best, based on case law and provides only for a qualified privilege for confidential sources. There has been no definitive decision on reporter's work product, so the protection there is speculative. It is certainly understandable that the Society of Professional Journalists would be disappointed that the legislation does not propose an absolute privilege for both confidential sources and reporter's work product. Unfortunately, the political realities require us to frame legislation that will not be dismissed as "dead on arrival" immediately upon introduction, which would be the fate of a full absolute privilege bill. Washington Attorney General Rob McKenna has gathered an impressive roster of bi-partisan legislators, including a former TV news anchor, who are committed to sponsoring and moving the bill to passage. The Washington State Association of Broadcasters supports this major improvement in the protection our state affords to reporters and their sources. We have already begun working closely with Attorney General McKenna and Members of the Washington Legislature on behalf of the broadcast journalists in Washington to pass this landmark legislation.

Mark Allen, Esq.
President & CEO
Washington State Association of Broadcasters - Olympia, WA




Below the Fold

Ad Business Report
Search engine marketing
Revs up online advertising and this is your former money...

Internet Media Business Report
Apple's iPods to be integrated
Into Chrysler Group cars...

Washington Media Business Report
Flip floppers at the Commerce Committee
Ted Stevens (R-AK) and Dan Inouye (D-HI) are a couple of flip floppers...

Media Markets & Money
Weston puts Crockett in its pocket
1.425M in its pocket, as Gregg Weston's group closes its acquisition of...


Radio Media Moves

Pyle packs it in
CBS Radio's KNX-AM Los Angeles announced that News Director Ed Pyle has decided to retire after 47 years in broadcast journalism. Pyle spent the past 20 years at KNX, including the past five as News Director. Beginning next week, Assistant News Director Ronnie Bradford will run the shop until a permanent replacement is named.

Beasley
ups Davis

Tom Davis has been promoted to Market Manager of Beasley's three-station Las Vegas cluster, moving up from Director of Sales. He succeeds Harry Williams, who has left the company.

Peters joins ABCRN
ABC Radio Networks announced that Carlette Peters has joined the New York Sales office. Peters assumes the role of Account Executive, and reports to Chip Gedney, Senior Director of New York Sales for ABC Radio Networks. In her new position, Peters is responsible for the sales efforts for ABC Radio Networks properties in the New York region. Prior to joining ABC Radio Networks, Peters was a Senior Account Manager at WQCD-FM New York, and the National Sales Manager for WRKS-FM New York.

Spencer now
President of PARC

Greg Spencer, General Sales Manager for KNRK-FM Portland will lead the 26-year old Portland Area Radio Council, comprised of the general managers and sales managers of the 25 leading commercial Portland radio stations. Spencer has been at KNRK since 2001.


Stations for Sale

WOLF Call Letters For Sale
WWOF-AM/WWOF-FM
AM-$10,000 FM-$50,000
Both-$54,000
Contact [email protected]

Atlanta & Charlotte
New AM CPs Available
Daytimers/Great Dial Positions
Call Gordon Rice Associates
(843) 884-3590, or email
[email protected]

Northern NewEng
AM & FM stations. Separate
operations. Gross 450K+-.
Good upside. 850K.
[email protected] or
lv msg @ 781-848-4201


More News Headlines

Entries open
for Mercurys

The 2006 Radio-Mercury Awards call for entry has begun with automated online entry registration available at RadioMercuryAwards.com. The entry forms can also be downloaded from the website. Entries are due by March 10th and must have aired for the first time in 2005. Commercials can be uploaded to the site as MP3 files, or submitted through regular mail on a CD, DAT, or cassette. A total of 165K in prize cash is on the line, including the 100K grand prize.

Pattiz resigns from government board
According to the Wall Street Journal, Westwood One founder and Chairman Norm Pattiz has resigned from the US Government's Broadcasting Board of Governors, where he was credited with launching Radio Sawa to reach Arab youth in the Middle East and a satellite TV service, Alhurra, also aimed at the Middle East. President Bush had failed to reappoint Pattiz, a Democrat, after his term expired in 2004, but he also never named a replacement, allowing Pattiz to stay on. Pattiz told the WSJ his decision to resign had nothing to do with politics.


RBR Radar 2005
Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Winds of Naples hit Emmis
Emmis execs cautious about ad market as National radio business was stronger than local in fiscal Q3 for Emmis Communications, but company officials told analysts in their quarterly conference call that the strength for national was due more to the company's collection of stations, rather than any trend for the industry. Also, the situation has now reversed, with local a bit stronger. Looking further ahead said national is currently pacing flat for fiscal Q1, which begins in March. Since auto fell to #2 for the quarter, we wondered what was #1. Cummings told RBR it was Media, which jumped 19% for the quarter. However, he believes that's an anomaly and that auto will again be the #1category in the current quarter.

RBR observation: We stated that the RBR eyes focus on Emmis as the temperature reading for the radio business and now we will have to take into account the wind chill factor. It is going to be a cold 2006 as many conference calls on the way will demonstrate that there is a cold wind blowing through Naples this year. Bear Sterns has already taken their first step and it will not surprise us at RBR to see others follow their recommendation and not just Emmis but many in the radio business. Radio will have to find new ways and use new media technology to face this problem with national spot giving the agency more accountability with ROI.
01/10/06 RBR #6

Negative on Radio continues;
Lehman Brothers official coverage of the radio stock sector - - and doesn't see much to excitement except for CBS, Univision and Radio One, analyst Anthony DiClemente isn't recommending the other radio stocks. After seeing only flat revenues for radio in 2005, he's looking for only 1% growth in 2006.

RBR observation: There has been plenty of negative to go around from '05 and the Wall Street saying applies - The Fish Stinks at the Head. Radio CEO's now must be held accountable.
01/09/06 RBR #5

XM facing Sirius challenge
XM fell just short of its 2005 subscriber goal of six million, but says it's now over the mark. The explanation from the company is that sales through the holidays would have put XM over the target, but some units weren't actually activated until after the New Year began.

RBR observation: Note that both satellite radio companies are predicting that they'll add about three million subscribers this year. But given their relative positions, that means that Sirius is expecting to have twice the growth rate of XM, just as it did last year. Of course, we at RBR will be watching another metric even more closely. Both companies have also told Wall Street that they'll reach cash flow break even this year. We wait to see if that happens. But don't you just love how Wall Street gulps down the excuses of both XM and Sirius. Time to hold Wall Street gurus accountable and their firms.
01/06/06 RBR #4


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