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ZenithOptimedia sees Internet overtaking outdoor, radio
Zenith Optimedia Group has revised its global ad spend outlook, predicting now that the Internet will overtake worldwide outdoor ad spending next year, and will catch up with radio in 2008: "We have revised our internet forecasts upwards once again as it has continued to exceed expectations. We now predict it will attract 6.5% of all advertising in 2008, up from 4.5% in 2005 (and up from the 6.0% we predicted for 2008 back in December). The internet is now firmly established as a mainstream advertising medium in developed markets, and in many developing markets too. We predict it will overtake outdoor in volume in 2007, even though outdoor is gaining share itself, and that by 2008 it will be catching up with radio too (which will have a 7.9% share, down from 8.5% in 2005)."
ZenithOptimedia revised its 2006 outlook up slightly, calling for a 6% increase in global ad spend--up from 5.9% in its December 2005 forecast. US ad spend is now projected to grow 5.2% this year, vs. 5.1% in December.
Advertising expenditure
Major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet)
US$ million, current prices. Currency conversion at 2004 average rates.
|
2004
|
2005
|
2006
|
2007
|
2008
|
North America
|
168,250
|
173,271
|
182,209
|
189,878
|
197,369
|
Europe
|
104,567
|
108,448
|
113,010
|
117,726
|
122,657
|
Asia/Pacific
|
78,802
|
83,162
|
88,819
|
95,420
|
101,816
|
Latin America
|
15,546
|
18,021
|
19,754
|
21,090
|
22,244
|
Africa/M. East/ROW
|
18,160
|
21,206
|
24,581
|
28,043
|
32,190
|
World
|
385,324
|
404,108
|
429,373
|
452,157
|
476,276
|
Source: ZenithOptimedia
Year-on-year change (%)
Major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet)
|
2004 v 03
|
2005 v 04
|
2006 v 05
|
2007 v 06
|
2008 v 07
|
North America
|
6.1
|
3.0
|
5.2
|
4.2
|
3.9
|
of which USA
|
6.0
|
2.9
|
5.2
|
4.2
|
4.0
|
Europe
|
6.4
|
3.7
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
4.2
|
Asia/Pacific
|
6.5
|
5.5
|
6.8
|
7.4
|
6.7
|
Latin America
|
13.4
|
15.9
|
9.6
|
6.8
|
5.5
|
Africa/M. East/ROW
|
27.7
|
16.8
|
15.9
|
14.1
|
14.8
|
World
|
7.4
|
4.9
|
6.0
|
5.6
|
5.3
|
Source: ZenithOptimedia
Top ten contributors to advertising expenditure growth 2005-2008
US$ million, current prices
|
Contribution US$m
|
% of market 2005
|
% of market 2008
|
USA
|
23,318
|
41.9
|
40.5
|
China
|
6,441
|
2.4
|
3.5
|
Russia
|
5,968
|
1.3
|
2.3
|
Japan
|
4,444
|
10.3
|
9.7
|
UK
|
3,118
|
5.4
|
5.2
|
Indonesia
|
2,512
|
0.8
|
1.2
|
Brazil
|
1,661
|
1.6
|
1.7
|
Spain
|
1,443
|
2.1
|
2.1
|
Mexico
|
1,382
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
Poland
|
1,239
|
0.9
|
1.0
|
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