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ZenithOptimedia sees Internet overtaking outdoor, radio

Zenith Optimedia Group has revised its global ad spend outlook, predicting now that the Internet will overtake worldwide outdoor ad spending next year, and will catch up with radio in 2008: "We have revised our internet forecasts upwards once again as it has continued to exceed expectations. We now predict it will attract 6.5% of all advertising in 2008, up from 4.5% in 2005 (and up from the 6.0% we predicted for 2008 back in December). The internet is now firmly established as a mainstream advertising medium in developed markets, and in many developing markets too. We predict it will overtake outdoor in volume in 2007, even though outdoor is gaining share itself, and that by 2008 it will be catching up with radio too (which will have a 7.9% share, down from 8.5% in 2005)."

ZenithOptimedia revised its 2006 outlook up slightly, calling for a 6% increase in global ad spend--up from 5.9% in its December 2005 forecast. US ad spend is now projected to grow 5.2% this year, vs. 5.1% in December.

Advertising expenditure
Major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet)
US$ million, current prices. Currency conversion at 2004 average rates.

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

North America

168,250

173,271

182,209

189,878

197,369

Europe

104,567

108,448

113,010

117,726

122,657

Asia/Pacific

78,802

83,162

88,819

95,420

101,816

Latin America

15,546

18,021

19,754

21,090

22,244

Africa/M. East/ROW

18,160

21,206

24,581

28,043

32,190

World

385,324

404,108

429,373

452,157

476,276

Source: ZenithOptimedia

Year-on-year change (%)
Major media (newspapers, magazines, television, radio, cinema, outdoor, internet)

2004 v 03

2005 v 04

2006 v 05

2007 v 06

2008 v 07

North America

6.1

3.0

5.2

4.2

3.9

of which USA

6.0

2.9

5.2

4.2

4.0

Europe

6.4

3.7

4.2

4.2

4.2

Asia/Pacific

6.5

5.5

6.8

7.4

6.7

Latin America

13.4

15.9

9.6

6.8

5.5

Africa/M. East/ROW

27.7

16.8

15.9

14.1

14.8

World

7.4

4.9

6.0

5.6

5.3

Source: ZenithOptimedia

Top ten contributors to advertising expenditure growth 2005-2008
US$ million, current prices

Contribution US$m

% of market 2005

% of market 2008

USA

23,318

41.9

40.5

China

6,441

2.4

3.5

Russia

5,968

1.3

2.3

Japan

4,444

10.3

9.7

UK

3,118

5.4

5.2

Indonesia

2,512

0.8

1.2

Brazil

1,661

1.6

1.7

Spain

1,443

2.1

2.1

Mexico

1,382

0.9

1.0

Poland

1,239

0.9

1.0






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