Radio revs post up in November
According to the Radio Advertising Bureau, local revenue continued to hover around the break-even point, finishing November on the black side by 2%. National's second month in a row on the plus side of the mid-to-upper single digit range - - an uptick of 7% - - brought the monthly total to a positive 4%. But it may be too early to start popping champagne corks.
Combined YTD local and national revenues remain at the 2% level. The addition of non-spot revenue adds another percentage point of black ink.
Here are the local numbers month-by-month: Jan: 0%; Feb: +3; Mar: +11; Apr: +4; May: +1; Jun: +5; Jul: +1; Aug: 0; Sep: +5; Oct: -1; Nov: +2. March is the only real high-water point.
National: Jan: 0; Feb: -4; Mar: +5; Apr: +6; May: -1; Jun: -3; Jul: -15; Aug: -5; Sep: +1; Oct: +6; Nov: +7. The entire summer was rugged, with a bottom-out in July.
Total, not counting non-spot: Jan: 0; Feb: +1; Mar: +10; Apr: +4; May: +1; Jun: +3; Jul: -3; Aug: -1; Sep: +4; Oct: +1; Nov: +4.
The glacial growth pace exhibited by radio in Q3 has essentially been extended into Q4. This contrasts with results experienced by broadcast television, which enjoyed low-double-digit gains in local advertising during Q3, largely thanks to record-breaking political spending.
"This is significantly better than last year, not only in the numbers themselves but in the composition of the numbers," RAB CEO Gary Fries tells RBR/TVBR. "It's good, solid growth and pretty much indicative in my opinion of the beginning of some real stabilization as we go forward into '05"
What do you attribute the up numbers to?
"I think the entire feeling of the economy, even though it has not returned to total optimism, it's starting to stabilize and the consumers are starting to react in more of a normal pattern. That's gaining confidence, I think the advertisers are gaining confidence in the ability to motivate the consumer."
We can't credit these numbers to political anymore...
"In fact, the political was really holding things back. November really took off after the elections--we can actually see it. In my opinion, the retailers were holding back during the political, because of the volume of noise that was out there. And as soon as the election was over, categories started strengthening and everything started getting stronger."
Fries adds: "I think there's a reason to have some cautious optimism here. I think we're seeing a gradual slow recovery and the signs point to a more stable environment than what we've seen in the past. It's very positive, but it's not like somebody has opened floodgates or anything like that."
And Fries' quick take outlook for '05 (see our yearly full-fledged outlook from the ad chiefs at RAB, TVB, NAA, SNTA, CAB, IAB, OAAA in our January print feature-call April McLynn to reserve your copy 703-492-8191): "My crystal ball projection for '05 is currently mid single digits, but I feel there is strong opportunity for that to change in a positive way. We just have to get further down the road to really get a clear picture of the future. Long-term, I am quite optimistic."
RBR observation:
Black ink is black ink, but there are a couple of factors graying November's positive if lackluster results. One is the fact that it reconfirms the notion that radio was largely bypassed by both national and local political campaigns. The other is the warning from analyst Jim Boyle that the modest November bump is but a prelude to a flattish December. In other words, it does not appear to be the start of a steady climb, merely another small rise before another drop on the revenue roller coaster.
Are you reading this from a forwarded email?
