With Universal McCann guru Bob Coen predicting that local radio ad revenues will be up 1% in 2007 and national radio (network & spot) up 4%, let's look at his track record for the current year. Coen started out rather optimistic, but had to ratchet down his expectations, particularly for local radio. As local ad sales proved to be tough for most media. He dropped his local radio forecast from the original 4% gain to flat and then to a 1% decline. As national spot/network went through a decline and then recovery in the course of 2006, Coen went from forecasting a 4% increase to only 1% and then back up to 3%. It was even a more dismal year for the newspaper business, particularly at the national level, where Coen's original forecast of a 3.5% gain ended up at a 3% loss. Local newspaper ad sales also came in well below his original projections. Here is a look at Coen's forecast and revisions for all major media throughout 2006.

Bob Coen's advertising forecast for 2007

Media	Dec. '05 Forecast	June '06 Forecast	Dec. '06 Final	Ad spend (millions)
Four TV networks	6.5%	6.5%	5.0%	$16,934
National spot TV	8.5%	10.0%	11.0%	$11,144
Cable TV	7.0%	4.5%	4.5%	$19,119
Syndication TV	4.5%	5.5%	5.0%	$4,058
National radio (net & spot)	4.0%	1.0%	3.0%	$4,411
Magazines	5.5%	4.5%	4.5%	$13,425
National newspaper	3.5%	0.0%	-3.0%	$7,241
Direct mail	7.5%	8.0%	8.5%	$59,912
National yellow pages	3.0%	2.0%	1.0%	$2,185
Internet	10.0%	25.0%	20.0%	$9,317
Other national media	6.4%	6.3%	6.4%	$36,950
TOTAL NATIONAL	6.8%	7.1%	6.9%	$184,696
Local newspaper	3.0%	2.0%	1.5%	$40,468
Local TV	4.5%	7.0%	5.0%	$14,973
Local radio	4.0%	0.0%	-1.0%	$15,203
Local yellow pages	3.0%	1.0%	1.0%	$12,187
Other local media	6.8%	5.8%	7.5%	$17,579
TOTAL LOCAL	4.0%	3.1%	2.2%	$100,410
GRAND TOTAL	5.8%	5.6%	5.2%	$285,106
Source: Universal McCann