WSJ peeks into its election-night crystal ball

The Wall Street Journal did not so much predict how the two major political parties would fare in today's mid-term election. However, an article (11/4) by Erin Schulte looked at the possibilities for certain sectors of the American business landscape, depending on election results.

Broadcast issues were a part of the article. "Media companies like Viacom and Clear Channel could benefit under Republican power as Democrats could move to squelch mergers in the space by either passing new legislation or putting the screws to the FCC not to loosen merger rules," wrote Schulte. "Still, the government doesn't seem totally gung-ho on merger mania in the sector," she continued, noting the opposition to the EchoStar-Hughes merger. "Still, analysts say that under a Republican Congress, media companies viewed as possible takeover targets could see their stocks benefit from speculation about mergers."

RBR Observation:

On the radio side, the merger cat is pretty much out of the bag - - although there is plenty of room for further consolidation, the heavy lifting has been done and the rules for more are in place. However, the much-discussed next consolidation wave is shy a few critical elements, like financing and/or a viable IPO market, willing sellers and realistic pricing.

Broadcast/newspaper crossownership and the network audience cap are the two biggest issues under review at the FCC right now, and a big part of the impetus - - besides a Congressional mandate to thoroughly evaluate all rules on the FCC's books - - comes from the courts, not Congress. The courts have found fault with the rules as written, and the FCC must respond to the courts regardless of what Congress thinks.

And what does Congress think? Not all that much, it would appear. As near as we can tell, the items under consideration at the FCC are not among the burning issues being bandied about in the final days of this election season. That tells us that Congress is unlikely to have a major affect on the media regardless of who wins this election.