Bear Stearns bullish on Stern, bearish on radio
Whether it happens in 2006 or sooner, 48 radio stations in 46 markets are going to have to replace "The Howard Stern Show" with something else in morning drive when Stern makes his much-ballyhooed move to Sirius Satellite Radio. After doing some number-crunching, Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller has concluded that there is only one sure winner in this game - - Howard Stern.
Of the $100 million that Sirius says it will pay out for each of the five years of Stern's contract, Miller estimates that Howard himself is getting $80 million. That's up significantly from his estimated $25 million per year for his current radio show. The analyst figures that Sirius and new CEO Mel Karmazin, who helped build Stern's terrestrial radio empire, will also help Stern expand his franchise in cable, movies and such - - perhaps to the tune of an additional $45 million per year.
So Howard does well. What about his new employer, Sirius, and his former radio affiliates? Miller notes that Stern plays best in the so-called "blue" states from the recent election and questions whether he'll play well for Sirius in the heartland. Further, the analyst says Stern's CUME is really around 6.3 million, not the 12 million being touted by Sirius. And he notes that 10% of Sterns fans account for 37% of total listening, which calls into question whether adding Stern will really get Sirius the one million additional subscribers that it is banking on to justify its investment.
Back on planet earth, those terrestrial stations that currently carry Stern take in about $110 million in ad revenues from his show, with $90 million of that at Infinity's stations. Miller notes that there are arguments on both sides as to whether or not most stations will be able to easily replace those revenues, since a lower-rated show may be easier to sell that the controversial Stern. In his view, the real fallout for the affiliates will be on the ratings side, since losing its highly rated morning show may hurt a station's ratings in other time periods. After looking at the six Clear Channel stations which cancelled Stern early this year, Miller found that audience losses in the key target demo of Men 18-34 ranged from 68% in Miami to 28% in Rochester, NY. Thus, he expects current affiliates to see a ratings impact when Stern makes his exit.
Howard Stern Show affiliates
Owner
|
Station
|
Rank
|
Market
|
Infinity
|
WXRK-FM
|
1
|
New York
|
Infinity
|
KLSX-FM
|
2
|
Los Angeles
|
Infinity
|
WCKG-FM
|
3
|
Chicago
|
Infinity
|
KITS-FM
|
4
|
San Francisco
|
Infinity
|
KLLI-FM
|
5
|
Dallas
|
Infinity
|
WYSP-FM
|
6
|
Philadelphia
|
Infinity
|
KIKK-AM
|
7
|
Houston
|
Infinity
|
WJFK-FM
|
8
|
Washington
|
Infinity
|
WBCN-FM
|
9
|
Boston
|
Infinity
|
WKRK-FM
|
10
|
Detroit
|
Beasley
|
WQAM-AM
|
12
|
Miami
|
Entercom
|
KISW-FM
|
14
|
Seattle
|
Infinity
|
KZON-FM
|
15
|
Phoenix
|
Infinity
|
KPLN-FM
|
17
|
San Diego
|
Infinity
|
WXYV-FM
|
19
|
Baltimore
|
Emmis
|
KPNT-FM
|
20
|
St. Louis
|
Infinity
|
WQYK-AM
|
21
|
Tampa-St. Pete
|
Infinity
|
WBZZ-FM
|
23
|
Pittsburgh
|
Infinity
|
KUFO-FM
|
24
|
Portland, OR
|
Infinity
|
WNCX-FM
|
25
|
Cleveland
|
Infinity
|
WAQZ-FM
|
26
|
Cincinnati
|
Infinity
|
KHWC-FM
|
27
|
Sacramento
|
Citadel
|
WWKX-FM
|
34
|
Providence
|
North American
|
WBZX-FM
|
35
|
Columbus
|
Infinity
|
WOCL-FM
|
38
|
Orlando
|
Infinity
|
KXTE-FM
|
39
|
Las Vegas
|
Infinity
|
KQBT-FM
|
42
|
Austin
|
Infinity
|
WPBZ-FM
|
47
|
West Palm Beach
|
Infinity
|
WMFS-FM
|
48
|
Memphis
|
Marlin
|
WCCC-FM
|
49
|
Hartford
|
Infinity
|
WBUF-FM
|
52
|
Buffalo
|
Infinity
|
WZNE-FM
|
54
|
Rochester
|
Regent
|
WQBJ/WQBK-FM
|
64
|
Albany-Schenectady
|
Citadel
|
WBBL-AM
|
66
|
Grand Rapids
|
Beasley
|
WRXK-FM
|
67
|
Ft. Myers-Naples
|
Infinity
|
KRNC-FM
|
68
|
Fresno
|
Citadel
|
WQXA-FM
|
79
|
Harrisburg
|
Citadel
|
WAQX-FM
|
80
|
Syracuse
|
LM Communications
|
WYBB-FM
|
89
|
Charleston, SC
|
LM Communications
|
WLXO-FM
|
102
|
Lexington
|
Americom
|
KBZZ-AM
|
127
|
Reno
|
Parinello
|
WJSE-FM
|
136
|
Atlantic City
|
Burlington Bcstrs
|
WIZN-FM
|
139
|
Burlington
|
Nassau
|
WHXR/WHXQ-FM
|
165
|
Portland, ME
|
Citadel
|
WKKB-FM
|
174
|
New Bedford-Fall River
|
Qantum
|
WPXC-FM
|
182
|
Cape Cod
|
Source: BIAfn Media Access Pro, The Howard Stern Radio Network