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Bear Stearns bullish on Stern, bearish on radio

Whether it happens in 2006 or sooner, 48 radio stations in 46 markets are going to have to replace "The Howard Stern Show" with something else in morning drive when Stern makes his much-ballyhooed move to Sirius Satellite Radio. After doing some number-crunching, Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller has concluded that there is only one sure winner in this game - - Howard Stern.

Of the $100 million that Sirius says it will pay out for each of the five years of Stern's contract, Miller estimates that Howard himself is getting $80 million. That's up significantly from his estimated $25 million per year for his current radio show. The analyst figures that Sirius and new CEO Mel Karmazin, who helped build Stern's terrestrial radio empire, will also help Stern expand his franchise in cable, movies and such - - perhaps to the tune of an additional $45 million per year.

So Howard does well. What about his new employer, Sirius, and his former radio affiliates? Miller notes that Stern plays best in the so-called "blue" states from the recent election and questions whether he'll play well for Sirius in the heartland. Further, the analyst says Stern's CUME is really around 6.3 million, not the 12 million being touted by Sirius. And he notes that 10% of Sterns fans account for 37% of total listening, which calls into question whether adding Stern will really get Sirius the one million additional subscribers that it is banking on to justify its investment.

Back on planet earth, those terrestrial stations that currently carry Stern take in about $110 million in ad revenues from his show, with $90 million of that at Infinity's stations. Miller notes that there are arguments on both sides as to whether or not most stations will be able to easily replace those revenues, since a lower-rated show may be easier to sell that the controversial Stern. In his view, the real fallout for the affiliates will be on the ratings side, since losing its highly rated morning show may hurt a station's ratings in other time periods. After looking at the six Clear Channel stations which cancelled Stern early this year, Miller found that audience losses in the key target demo of Men 18-34 ranged from 68% in Miami to 28% in Rochester, NY. Thus, he expects current affiliates to see a ratings impact when Stern makes his exit.


Howard Stern Show affiliates

Owner

Station

Rank

Market

Infinity

WXRK-FM

1

New York

Infinity

KLSX-FM

2

Los Angeles

Infinity

WCKG-FM

3

Chicago

Infinity

KITS-FM

4

San Francisco

Infinity

KLLI-FM

5

Dallas

Infinity

WYSP-FM

6

Philadelphia

Infinity

KIKK-AM

7

Houston

Infinity

WJFK-FM

8

Washington

Infinity

WBCN-FM

9

Boston

Infinity

WKRK-FM

10

Detroit

Beasley

WQAM-AM

12

Miami

Entercom

KISW-FM

14

Seattle

Infinity

KZON-FM

15

Phoenix

Infinity

KPLN-FM

17

San Diego

Infinity

WXYV-FM

19

Baltimore

Emmis

KPNT-FM

20

St. Louis

Infinity

WQYK-AM

21

Tampa-St. Pete

Infinity

WBZZ-FM

23

Pittsburgh

Infinity

KUFO-FM

24

Portland, OR

Infinity

WNCX-FM

25

Cleveland

Infinity

WAQZ-FM

26

Cincinnati

Infinity

KHWC-FM

27

Sacramento

Citadel

WWKX-FM

34

Providence

North American

WBZX-FM

35

Columbus

Infinity

WOCL-FM

38

Orlando

Infinity

KXTE-FM

39

Las Vegas

Infinity

KQBT-FM

42

Austin

Infinity

WPBZ-FM

47

West Palm Beach

Infinity

WMFS-FM

48

Memphis

Marlin

WCCC-FM

49

Hartford

Infinity

WBUF-FM

52

Buffalo

Infinity

WZNE-FM

54

Rochester

Regent

WQBJ/WQBK-FM

64

Albany-Schenectady

Citadel

WBBL-AM

66

Grand Rapids

Beasley

WRXK-FM

67

Ft. Myers-Naples

Infinity

KRNC-FM

68

Fresno

Citadel

WQXA-FM

79

Harrisburg

Citadel

WAQX-FM

80

Syracuse

LM Communications

WYBB-FM

89

Charleston, SC

LM Communications

WLXO-FM

102

Lexington

Americom

KBZZ-AM

127

Reno

Parinello

WJSE-FM

136

Atlantic City

Burlington Bcstrs

WIZN-FM

139

Burlington

Nassau

WHXR/WHXQ-FM

165

Portland, ME

Citadel

WKKB-FM

174

New Bedford-Fall River

Qantum

WPXC-FM

182

Cape Cod


Source: BIAfn Media Access Pro, The Howard Stern Radio Network




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