Slim silver lining in what looks hot

It appears that consumers haven't completely retreated from considering major purchases, as six month purchase intentions for many high-dollar durables are relatively stable from '07.  Computers, furniture, and digital cameras are up slightly...housing, RV/boat flat, while jewelry/watch, home appliances, major home improvements, stereo equipment, and DVD/VCR are down half a point or less.  While autos improve from last month (to 9.6%, from 8.9% in August), 11.1% planned to purchase in September '07.  The shining star continues to be TVs.

While confidence did increase in September, it appears that rising practicality is squashing consumers' urge to spend, resulting in a mixed 90 Day Outlook, according to the BIGresearch Diffusion Index (those who say they'll spend less subtracted from those who will spend more).  Look closely and you'll be able to spot planned gifting categories for the coming months - Toys, Electronics, CDs/DVDs, and Apparel are up from last month...however, with these categories down compared to September '07, it's likely that consumers will be buying with less enthusiasm this year:

Retail Merchandise Categories - 90 Day Outlook (September 08 compared to August 08 and September 07)

We've dished a lot of dismal news to retailers this month, but here's a slim silver lining...it appears that consumers haven't completely retreated from considering major purchases, as six month purchase intentions for many high-dollar durables are relatively stable from '07.  Computers, furniture, and digital cameras are up slightly...housing, RV/boat flat, while jewelry/watch, home appliances, major home improvements, stereo equipment, and DVD/VCR are down half a point or less.  While autos improve from last month (to 9.6%, from 8.9% in August), 11.1% planned to purchase in September '07.  The shining star continues to be TVs...10.6% plans to buy, compared to 9.3% last year (perhaps fueled by the upcoming digital conversion).

(source: BIGresearch, executive briefing - www.bigresearch.com)