Up until now, most of the prognosticators have been expecting modest increases in holiday spending, but now Prosper Insights & Analytics has introduced a minor chord into the song – and it also has predictions on which retailers will and will not fare well competing for a piece of a shrinking pie.
PI&A says this is the first time that a decrease in spending is in the offing since the recession began, but notes that it still is full of opportunity. The key is to “have an effective omnichannel strategy,” go heavy on promotion, and do whatever you can to attract Gen-X’er business, since they are expected to be this year’s big spenders.
The research firm has a lead on which retailers stand to do well and not.
Holiday 2013 Retail Winners
Target
Kohl’s
Costco
Macy’s
Old Navy
Honorable mention: JC Penney
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics
Holiday 2013 Retail Losers
Kmart
Walmart
Toys R US
Sam’s Club
Source: Prosper Insights & Analytics
“Knowing who your consumers are and how they are feeling is even more critical when you are grasping for a smaller piece of the pie in an off holiday season,” said Pam Goodfellow, Principal Analyst and Consumer Insights Director for Prosper. “We’ve identified a mix of key metrics that enables us to look at a holistic view of shoppers to predict which retailers may be positioned for a better holiday season this year.”
Describing the basis for its winner and loser selections, PI&A stated, “The list of select retailers was compiled using factors such as key demographic information, economic sentiment, loyalty/cross shopping, retail positioning, and proprietary Prosper analytics such as the Happiness Score, Impulsiveness Score and Mobile Aptitude.”
RBR-TVBR observation: Did you get that promotion remark? PI&A recommends heavy promotion – and a big part of promotion is advertising. Broadcast sales force, it is up to you to make winners out of your friends in the retail business by getting them to tout their omnichannel availability early and often over your airspace. They’ll thank you for it, and so will your management team and investors.
