Coen lowers expectations for 2007 ad spending

Advertising guru Bob Coen is less optimistic now than he was back in December when he issued his ad spending forecast for 2007. The Universal McCann forecaster now expects US ad spending to grow only 3.1% this year, down from his previous prediction of 4.8% growth. "The recent dismal state of advertising demand among local marketers worsened in the opening months of 2007," Coen noted in his mid-year update, saying that consolidation of many retailers has hurt local ad spending.

But he'd been so negative about local radio going into this year, that it is one of only two local media categories (yellow pages is the other) where he has boosted his forecast. He now expects local radio revenues to be up 2% this year, rather than 1%, while local ad spending across all media rises only 1.1%, down from his previous forecast of 2.7%.

Coen is not so upbeat about national radio ad sales (network and national spot combined), which he sees gaining 2.5%, down from his initial forecast of 4%. Overall national ad spending is expected to rise 4.2%, rather than 5.7%. But Internet advertising by national advertisers is expected to jump 17%, even more than his initial call of 15%.

Bob Coen’s advertising forecast for 2007

	Dec. '06	June '07	Ad spend
Media	Forecast	Revision	(millions)
Four TV networks	3.0%	3.0%	$17,175
National spot TV	0.0%	-1.0%	$11,510
Cable TV	6.5%	4.5%	$20,190
Syndication TV	6.0%	-2.0%	$3,615
National radio (net & spot)	4.0%	2.5%	$4,550
Magazines	5.0%	4.0%	$13,595
National newspaper	1.0%	1.0%	$7,015
Direct mail	7.5%	5.0%	$61,575
National yellow pages	3.0%	2.0%	$2,205
Internet	15.0%	17.0%	$10,640
Other national media	5.7%	4.0%	$38,010
TOTAL NATIONAL	5.9%	4.2%	$190
Local newspaper	2.0%	-1.5%	$38,880
Local TV	4.0%	3.0%	$15,335
Local radio	1.0%	2.0%	$15,505
Local yellow pages	1.5%	2.0%	$12,430
Other local media	5.6%	3.7%	$18,070
TOTAL LOCAL	2.7%	1.1%	$100,220
GRAND TOTAL	4.8%	3.1%	$290,300
Source: Universal McCann

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