Measuring newspaper’s decline

The Pew Research Center has outlined twin trends with new stats showing a decline in the use of newspapers, and the continued migration of what use there is to the internet. A study in which respondents were asked if they used a newspaper or its website “yesterday” found an overall usage decline from 43% in 2006 to 39% in 2008. Meanwhile, the percentage using a newspaper’s website increase from 9% to 14%.

In the 2006 study, 34% used the print version only, 5% the website version only and 4% used both. In 2008, the print only number shrank alarmingly to 25%, the web only number rose to 9% and the number of those using both moved up one click to 5%.

The bad news continues when looking at the demos. Newspapers in 2008 still enjoyed 55% penetration among those born prior to 1946, with 52% wanting a paper version to hold. Contrast that with those born in 1977 or later (Generation Y), where total penetration amounts to barely a quarter of the demo at 27%. Only 16% touch paper, and with 14%, the preference for a newspaper’s website over the print version is almost at par.
Overall newspaper use for Generation X (1965-1976) is a weak 33%, and also shows web users (18%) catching up to print users (21%).

Newspapers have a total 42% penetration among Boomers (1946-1964), with print retaining a healthy advantage over web uses by a 34%-14% margin.

Print use is down in all categories, and web-only use is up in all, even among the old-timers, who went from 1% to 3% in that category from 2006 to 2008.

Although the online numbers could be taken as a positive sign, there is more bad news from Pew. The study found that only 13% of individuals looking for news on the internet head directly to a newspaper website. That compares to 28% who mentioned Yahoo, 19% who mentioned MSN, and 17% who mentioned CNN. Many do wind up reading newspaper stories by following links discovered elsewhere from the newspaper’s own site.

RBR/TVBR observation: Newspaper and broadcast have always been the Tom and Jerry of the local advertising wars, so the massive problems afflicting newsprint right now should be providing a natural vacuum which broadcasters should be able to swoop into and exploit. This is especially true when looking at age groups – the younger the target group, the more opportunity for newspaper’s competitors.

You can almost think of it as competing against the market’s Adult Standards station.

The problem, of course, is that broadcasters are facing some steep speed bumps of their own right now, and they are also most acute in the younger demos. But any station, radio or television, which can find a viable path into the hearts and minds of anybody under the age of 55 has a massive potential audience to exploit -- and sell.

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