Coen sees more of the same in 2008

Aside from TV, which stands to gain from political spending and the Olympics in 2008, Universal McCann Sr. VP and Director of Forecasting Bob Coen doesn’t see much to get excited about in the coming year. “As we look ahead from a past that doesn’t look to good, we don’t see a lot of high expectations,” Coen said as he unveiled his US ad forecast for the next year. In his annual appearance before the UBS 35th Annual Global Media and Communications Conference in New York, Coen said his original forecasts for 2007 missed the mark because big marketers became more focused on global corporate profits and tightened the reins on ad spending. That trend, he said, will continue in 2008, so he is not expecting to see much growth in ad spending, other than the political/Olympics windfall for TV. For 2008, Coen predicts that total US ad spending will be up 3.7% to 294.4 billion bucks, with local barely better than flat and national up 5.5%.

In line with his prediction that most types of media will see little change in 2008 over 2007, Coen predicts that national radio ad sales (network and national spot combined) will be up only 1% next year. But that’s better than his forecast for local radio, which he forecasts will be flat with 2007.

Coen was asked by one Wall Streeter just what hit radio and newspapers in September, when both took unexpected hits in ad spending? Coen noted that both get 75-80% of their ad revenues from local. “Retailers and local entrepreneurs don’t spend a dime unless they think they’re going to get something immediately,” Coen said, so they cut back at the first sign of weakness, such as what we saw in September.