Breaking down the 2010 Census

They say that the new standard 10-question census questionnaire is in the mail. As of this writing, we haven’t received ours yet, but we don’t doubt that it will be here soon. The Census should be a concern to all broadcasters, and just like the challenge of getting citizen cooperation when generating ratings, there are trouble spots within the community that should be a matter of special concern for certain broadcasters.

If you think about it, an accurate 2010 Census is not necessarily to the advantage of every broadcaster. It all depends on whether or not the broadcaster’s community and particular audience gains or loses population. But it is definitely in every broadcaster’s advantage to serve a group that is gaining population (or appears to be) rather than the opposite.

Therefore, every single broadcaster in the USA should be doing their level best to encourage full Census participation within their community.

A fresh Pew Research Center report on citizen attitudes towards the Census shows that most are willing to participate out of a sense of community.

Only 33% figure that they will personally benefit from an accurate census. However, 57% figure there will be no personal harm, if there is no personal benefit. 5% are clueless, leaving only 5% that fear it (along with 1% that see both benefits and harms).

Even better than the news that there is little fear of the Census is that fact that 62% do see a benefit at the community level, a huge increase over the personal benefit crowd. 29% see it as a neutral operation, apparently the same 5% remain clueless, 3% see it as harmful to the community and 1% of the population sees benefits and harms.

But the numbers do not hold when you break down the demographics. And this is a particular problem for stations that serve one of the hard-to-reach demos.

Ratings companies start with Census figures and come up with percentages and projections. The starting number is very important, and the numbers the Census Bureau comes up with this year will be hanging around as a baseline for ten years.

In short, if your station tends to serve an older, White, affluent audience, don’t sweat it. That group is likely to respond and be counted.

After that, it gets dicey.
The age breakdown: The most solid group of definite responders is the 50-64 bracket, at 85%, followed closely by the 65+ group at 81%. 30-49s only score 70% on this count, and 18-29s are an extremely troublesome 45%.

The racial divide is not nearly as stark, which should come as good news to minority broadcasters. Nevertheless, it is there, and minorities remain on the short end of the stick. Definite responders among Whites come home at 73%, followed by Blacks at 67% and Hispanics at 65%.

Education is a factor. College grads come home at 82%; those who went but didn’t graduate come home at 77%; those with a high school diploma or less are a problem at 61%.

Household income has a similar spread: $75K+ annually scores 81%; $30K-$74,999 scores 73%; and less than $30K scores 65%.

RBR-TVBR observation: No matter what your format or programming style, you want to make sure that everybody in your target audience is counted. The baseline figure for your market is going to be used to calculate the projection upon which your ratings will be calculated and your rate card set. We don’t operate a broadcast station, but if we did, we’d be pushing the Census for all we were worth right now.

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