Wells Fargo Equity Securities (Marci Ryvicker and Timothy Schlock) have been tracking political ad dollars up to the 11/2 elections. They provide a weekly snapshot of those companies with the greatest exposure to each week’s incremental spend (both in terms of absolute dollars and as a percent of overall market revenue). From the report:
We have tracked political TV spending through October 31 (the last full week before the November 2nd elections). As a corollary to our Political Update report published September 30 (entitled ”We Stick With Our $3.3B Political Forecast-Lower TVL Estimates”), we have been tracking political ad spend on broadcast TV on a weekly basis. Though the elections may be over, the data for political ad spending is still coming in. In this note we provide a weekly snapshot (for the week ending 10/31 – the last full week before the elections) of those companies with the greatest exposure to incremental political spend (both in terms of absolute dollars and as a percent of overall market revenue). We intend to provide a political summary analysis at a later date, once additional spending data has been collected, revised, and finalized.
Year-to-date, through October 31, political ad spend on broadcast TV totalled $1,968M. This represents a $276 million, or 16% increase, over the prior week (ending October 24). The pace of incremental spend evened-out at ~$275M, resulting in the final two weeks accounting for almost 30% of YTD TV political spending. We believe that ad buys for 11/1 and 11/2 will push total political spot TV revenue to or slightly above our $2B estimate.”
* TOP MARKETS THIS WEEK IN ABSOLUTE DOLLARS: Los Angeles, CA; Chicago, IL; New York, NY; Philadelphia, PA; and Boston, MA**.
* TOP MARKETS THIS WEEK AS PERCENT OF MARKET REVENUE: Tallahassee, FL; Panama City, FL; Wausau, WI; La Crosse, WI; and Wilkes-Barre, PA.
* TV COMPANIES WITH GREATEST EXPOSURE TO ABSOLUTE CHANGE: Multicultural TV, at 100%; NBCU/CMCSA, at 94.8%; DIS, at 91.3%; Tribune, at 83.8%; and CBS, at 82.7%.
* TV COMPANIES WITH GREATEST EXPOSURE TO CHANGE AS % OF MARKET REV: EVC, at 46.5%; JRN, at 26.2%; MDP, at 22.1%; NXST, at 16.3%; and GTN, at 14.8%.
* RADIO COMPANIES WITH GREATEST EXPOSURE TO ABSOLUTE CHANGE: SBSA, at 86.9%; ABC/DIS, at 83.9%; CBS, at 80.1%; Univision, at 74.2%; and SALM, at 69.9%.
* RADIO COMPANIES WITH GREATEST EXPOSURE TO CHANGE AS % OF MARKET REV: BBGI, at 9.0%; SGA, at 8.7%; EVC, at 7.2%; CDELA, at 5.8%; and CBS, at 5.4%.
