Analyst lowers TV revenue expectations

Mark Fratrik

BIA/Kelsey VP Mark Fratrik has knocked another billion off his final forecast for 2009 TV station revenues, now put at $15.6 billion. He sees things getting a little better going forward, but only a little.

That $15.6 billion forecast for over-the-air revenues is down 22.4% from $2008. That includes $518 million in TV station revenues from the Internet, up 12% from $463 million last year. Back in July the analyst had been looking for a drop of 17.3%.

The picture looks a little better for 2010. Fratrik now predicts that TV station revenues will rise 3% to $16.1 billion, including a $130 million increase in Internet revenues.

"While television's numbers are tapering down due to audience erosion from other media delivery options, we continue to see that local TV remains a valuable way to reach relatively larger audiences, critical for mass communications in political campaigns. Additionally, online revenues are expected to grow as stations get more sophisticated in the way they sell to advertisers and integrate their mobile and Internet offerings with their broadcasting operations," Fratrik said as he released his updated forecast.