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Volume 23, Issue 127, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
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Thursday Morning June 29th, 2006
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TV News ®
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 Coen raises TV forecast,
but really boosts Internet number
TV is doing better than most other old line media. Ad guru Bob Coen, Sr. VP and Director of Forecasting at Universal McCann, has boosted his 2006 growth forecast for both local and national spot TV and hung firm on his network prediction, while slashing his cable and radio numbers. But the big, really big, gainer was the Internet. Internet advertising growth is far outstripping Coen's 10% growth forecast, so he has dramatically increased that to 25%. That and increases in his forecasts for national spot TV and syndicated TV more than countered decreases for most other national media, so his forecast for national ad spending rose to 7.1% form his previous 6.8%. Local, however, fell to 3.1% from 4%. That reduced Coen's overall forecast for US ad growth to 5.6% from his previous 5.8%. After seeing pricing resistance stiffen for network TV last year after "soaring demand" in 2004, Coen says the growth so far this year has been virtually all attributable to the Winter Olympics and Super Bowl, so he is sticking with his "moderate" growth forecast of 6.5% for the Big Four nets. "Back in December we expected National Spot TV ad revenues to re-accelerate in 2006 primarily as a result of intensifying political activity. The results so far this year suggest that the expected rising trends are developing, and the gains should be equal to or perhaps a little stronger than the 8.5% gain we had expected at the end of last year," Coen said, so he has raised his national spot TV growth number to 10%. At the local level, Coen said growth early this year was better than expected because political ad demand was pushing prices up for other advertisers, so he has raised his 4.5% growth prediction to 7%. TVBR's chart compares Coen's original forecast and yesterday's revision for all media.
| View Coen's Numbers |
 Azcarraga assessing his options
Can Emilio Azcarraga Jean snatch victory from the jaws of defeat? The Televisa CEO insists that he isn't giving up after Univision agreed to a 12.3 billion buyout by Haim Saban's group (6/28/06 TVBR #126), but short of coming up with a lot more cash in a hurry, Azcarraga's options are limited. With a 300 million bucks break-up fee to cover, the Televisa group would have to come up with a bid of 38 bucks a share or maybe more to get Univision Chairman Jerry Perenchio to cut short his European vacation and return to the bargaining table. And don't forget what a tough time Azcarraga had in putting together a bid of 35.75. Where can he find more cash and, at the same time, keep Bill Gates' Cascade Investments and Bain Capital from taking a hike over pricing as other original members of the Televisa bidding group did? Those are the hurdles to clear in option one. Option two is to vote down the Saban deal and start again. Televisa and/or Venevision can veto the sale under their special stock rights, but that can be overridden by a 60% shareholders vote - so they would need to draw another 20% or so to their cause, which could only likely be done with a higher bid on the table. That brings us back to the same hurdles as option number one. Option number three is to try to derail the deal with objections to US regulators. The problem there is that a Televisa deal would pose more regulatory problems over foreign ownership than anything they can raise about the Saban group. We understand that the buyer is structured so that the equity backers who have interests in other US FCC licensees won't be attributable owners in the eyes of the FCC. Saban, a US citizen, has no other attributable interests to worry about. Of course, the simplest solution would be for Azcarraga to join the Saban group, but his ego will not allow that. Meanwhile, Televisa can continue its legal fight to get out of its programming contract with Univision, which runs through 2017, and start a new US network, but that is a long-shot at best. Televisa has indicated that it, not Univision, owns the Internet rights to its programming in the US - a claim that Univision disputes. So, could Televisa do an end-run and distribute its programming via the Web into the US? It is questionable how much of an impact that would even have on Univision. The telenovelas that air in primetime now on Univision have already aired in Mexico on Televisa, so it would be simple for friends and relatives to send videos and DVDs north, but that doesn't seem to have had any impact on ratings for Univision. Azcarraga is clearly frustrated and wants to make a move - but it is not going to be easy to move forward on his desire to buy or build his own US network.
TVBR observation: The silliest suggestion we've seen put forward is that Saban's group would sell the Univision TV network business to Televisa and keep only the TV station group. Saban, who made his fortune on the Mighty Morphin' Power Rangers, is a programming guy. There is simply no way he did this deal so he could sell off the programming assets and keep only the distribution platform. Would he consider selling off the Univision Radio group? Maybe, but in recent conference calls Univision President Ray Rodriguez has been crowing about the success of the radio-TV synergy, with radio promoting the TV network programs and the tie to TV bringing new advertising accounts to the radio group. The least synergistic assets at Univision are the record labels, but how much would anyone be willing to pay for them? Pricing would be a major issue in any asset sale. Having paid 17 times projected 2006 EBITDA for the whole Univision package, that multiple increases if any pieces are sold off at anything less than 17 times - and that is not the way equity investment firms like to do business.
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 Pepper gets Disney Chair
Directors at The Walt Disney Company looked around the table and selected one of their own to be the next Chairman - John Pepper, a former CEO of Procter & Gamble who only joined the Disney board earlier this year. Pepper currently serves as CEO of the National Underground Railroad Freedom Center. Like the current Chairman, former Sen. George Mitchell, Pepper will be non-executive Chairman, leaving President & CEO Bob Iger as the top member of fulltime management. The titles have been split since a shareholder revolt against former Chairman & CEO Michael Eisner. Mitchell will be retiring at the end of this year - a retirement he had agreed to delay beyond the recent annual shareholders meeting - and Pepper will take the Chair effective January 1, 2007.
FCC on notice to provide notice
Byron Dorgan (D-ND) has been watching the FCC like a hawk ever since 6/2/03. His Resolution of Disapproval concerning the FCC's actions on that date won approval by the Senate and failed to become law, many feel, only because Republican leadership in the House of Representatives sat on it. Then it was rendered somewhat moot by remand of the rules back to the Commission by the Third Circuit Court. Dorgan had been talking about putting language into the S. 2686, the Communications, Consumers' Choice, and Broadband Deployment Act of 2006 concerning media ownership. What passed by voice vote is a simple requirement that the FCC report any changes to the rules in public before final adoption. The full bill was passed out of committee late yesterday after an 11-11 vote (which means it is not adopted) on a contentious issue to require net neutrality, opening broadband connections to all comers on an equal basis. The final vote on passage was 15-7, sending the bill to the full Senate for a vote.
TVBR observation: This strikes us as a fairly tame requirement. However, it is true that the full nature of the 6/2/03 rulemaking was not revealed until, well, 6/2/03. It was, until pulled back by the Court, and if not the law of the land, the regulation of the land, by 3-2 party-line vote, pending publication in the Federal Register, before anybody except the Commissioners and certain FCC employees even knew what was in it. This amendment, if it survives the long road ahead, which includes stops on the Senate floor, conference committee and the President's desk, would at least prevent FCC Chairman Kevin Martin from springing a similar surprise on interested parties like Michael Powell did. The question is, what will move faster, Martin's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking or this bill?
Senate panel wants to limit broadcast consolidation
A Senate committee last week found it to be problematical when news sources within a media market are limited to one, two or three ownership groups. It said that in general, citizens are getting useful and reliable news services, but that in some areas of the country a lack of diverse sources was beginning to be of concern. The Committee was the Transport and Communications Committee, which, if may seem somewhat unfamiliar to regular readers of this space. That's because it's in Canada. The committee's report was based on a three-year study, according to north-of-the-border media trade Broadcaster Magazine. The committee had good news for broadcasters in one area. It wants government owned service CBC to get out of competition with them. For starters, it would eliminate CBC broadcasts of professional sporting events and the Olympics. More importantly, it would fully-fund the service, which now sells advertising worth approximately 400M, in direct competition with commercial broadcast operations.
 MyNetworkTV fills a top 20 slot
MyNetworkTV now has only three markets in the top 20 to fill for its September launch. Hearst-Argyle's KQCA-TV (Ch. 58, currently WB) has signed to be the newbie net's affiliate in Sacramento, market #19. That leaves only Boston (#5), Miami (#17) and Denver (#18) as top 20 markets without an announced MyNetworkTV affiliate. The net, owned by News Corporation/Fox, now claims clearance in 151 markets, covering nearly 87% of US TV households.
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| Wall Street Media Business Report TM |
Sale delay cuts News Corp. guidance
News Corporation announced yesterday that a printing plant sale in the UK that had been expected to close this fiscal year will be delayed into fiscal 2007 because of the timing of needed regulatory approvals. As a result, the company says operating income growth for the current year should come in at 8%, not the previously announced 12%, solely due to the sale delay. The company's 2006 fiscal year ends this Friday (6/31).
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Ad Business Report TM
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DirecTV campaign hits the gridiron
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning will appear in the latest series of DirecTV ad spots featuring celebrities who appear to step out of a well-known film or television scene to educate consumers about DirecTV. Manning, a long-time DirecTV spokesman, will be seen stepping away from game action into the living rooms of viewers to promote DirecTV's exclusive NFL Sunday Ticket service as the only way for fans to catch their favorite teams and biggest games every Sunday during the regular season. The ads begin running this week. The campaign, via Deutsch, uses digital production technology, allowing actual feature film, or in this case NFL game film, to be inter-woven seamlessly with produced footage. The resulting effect has Manning directly addressing the viewing audience while in the middle of an actual NFL game. This same technology was employed in DirecTV's recent spots using footage from the popular action film "Twister," the '80s classic "Ferris Bueller's Day Off" and the blockbuster comedy "Austin Powers."
IPG and Facebook partner for marketing programs
The Interpublic Group (IPG) has entered into a strategic partnership with Facebook, the social utility that allows people to share information online to participate in marketing programs on the website, including online advertising and promotions, sponsorships, consumer research and content creation on behalf of its clients. Interpublic has also agreed to acquire less than one-half of one percent of Facebook. "The strategic partnership will give us access to the youth market and a platform from which to learn about the dynamics of social networks and participate in this increasingly important medium," said Michael Roth, IPG CEO. "Facebook's users represent a difficult-to-reach - but very key - audience for many of our clients. Young and tech-savvy consumers are increasingly shunning traditional media vehicles and defining themselves and their community online. Facebook is among the top ten most-trafficked sites in the United States. More than 65% of all college students have made it an important part of their lives and it is gaining popularity with the high school market. That's why this alignment makes so much sense for us." The agreement is of recent initiatives to help IPG clients better understand and become involved in the changes in consumer behavior being driven by digital media. These initiatives include the launch of the company's Emerging Media Lab, its Consumer Experience Practice and the User-Generated Content Practice announced at Cannes.
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| Media Markets & Money TM |
Fisher buys second Hispanic duop station
With a deal already pending to buy a duopoly station in Portland, OR, Fisher Communications announced a second duopoly buy, this time in its home market, Seattle. For 16 million bucks it will acquire KWOG-TV (Ch. 51, Ind.) from African-American Broadcasting of Bellevue and, like the duop station in Portland, it will become a Univision affiliate. Fisher has already closed on buying 25% of the stock of the seller and will LMA the station pending FCC approval to buy the remaining 75%. "This station will provide Fisher the opportunity to obtain duopoly economics in a market in which we currently operate as well as serve our fast growing Hispanic population," said Fisher CEO Colleen Brown. Fisher's flagship station in Seattle is KOMO-TV (Ch. 4, ABC). It also owns three radio stations in the market.
Close encounter in Denver
The 155M transfer of Channel 20 KTVD-TV in Denver from Twenver Broadcast to Gannett is a done deal. The station goes into a duopoly with NBC 9 KUSA-TV. It'll be Gannett's third TV duop, joining one up-and-running in Jacksonville and one awaiting closure of another deal in Atlanta.
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| Washington Media Business Report TM |
 McCain pushed through
LPFM amendment
Work on the S. 2686, the Communications, Consumers' Choice, and Broadband Deployment Act of 2006 continued to move forward, and yesterday it was the turn former Commerce Committee Chairman John McCain (R-AZ) to offer some amendments. And he scored a 14-7 win which if it survives all the way to bill signing would open third adjacent FM channels up to LPFM stations. McCain has been pushing for opening the door for more LPFMs for some time, and this time prefaced his remarks with the tale of the temporary LPFM which provided specific news and info for people hiding out in the New Orleans Superdome during Hurricane Katrina. He wondered why there aren't there more LPFMs, then responded to his own question "The answer is complex, but it has to do with the National Association of Broadcasters." McCain's attempt to get an amendment on a la carte didn't fare nearly so well. Under the Stevens bill, as in the House version, national franchise benefits will accrue to cable systems when they are subject to new competitive entrants into their franchise areas. Under McCain's amendment, they would only be eligible for these benefits if they are providing an a la carte menu option. It was considered to be hampered by flawed construction, and was thus opposed by many Republicans who said they supported the a la carte concept. It was soundly defeated 20-2. John Kerry (D-MA) and Barbara Boxer (D-CA) addressed the topic of build-out requirements by new entrants, and almost succeeded in altering Steven's bill. They would have allowed any new entrant freedom of entry, with no requirement to do anything until they successfully service 15% of a franchise area. At that point, they would be required to add coverage incrementally, and only when another success threshold has been reached. The amendment lost 12-10.
NCE forays into unreserved band shot down
The FCC is holding the line against noncommercial excursions into the upper portions of the FM dial. Living Proof Inc. wanted to set up shop on 95.7 mHz in Lake Isabella CA. American Family Association (AFA) was shooting for 97.3 mHz in Madison MO. Calvary of New Orleans was eying 106.9 mHz in Franklin LA. And Call Communications was looking to build on 92.7 mHz In Key West FL. Living Proof failed to bring new second NCE service to either 10% of the population in the proposed area or at least to 2,000 or more people (it reached 5%/704 respectively). AFA also failed to satisfy the 10% requirement, and was looking to go noncommercial on an allotment which had at least two interested (and comment-filing) commercial suitors. It was pointed out to Calvary that a reserved band possibility at 90.7 mHz was possible and preferable. Call claimed it would be providing second NCE service to Key West, which the FCC seemed to think represented a less than thorough NCE inventory, since it lists three such stations.
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| Entertainment Media Business Report TM |
 CBS airing "Big Brother: All Stars" online and on mobile
Big Brother: All Stars" will be on the air, online and on cell phones this summer when CBS launches a multi-platform campaign that will bring coverage of All-Stars from inside the Big Brother house. The show premieres Thursday, July 6 (8:00-9:00 PM, ET/PT). Entire episodes will be streamed on CBS.com's new broadband channel "innertube" beginning the morning after the episode airs on the Network. The episodes will be archived on "innertube" for viewing throughout the run of the summer series. For the first time, CBS will offer around the clock coverage of All Stars through a mobile subscription package, "Big Brother Mobile Pack." Special producers will be monitoring the action inside the house around the clock to keep fans in the know with video clips, photos, live breaking house alerts and daily insider summaries on their cell phones. Additionally, fans will have access to exclusive video, picture and text diaries of their favorite Houseguests. The service will be available on most major wireless carriers and fans will be able to subscribe via www.CBS.com and on-air callouts. Other wireless elements including voting and contesting will also be offered via Cingular.
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| Ratings & Research |
 Reality tops for TiVo users
NBC's "America's Got Talent" jumped out of the starting game as last week's most-watched program among TiVo owners. Another reality show, Fox's "So You Think You Can Dance," was also strong, relegating ABC's NBA Playoff game to third place.
| Tivo Top 25 |
Reality shows especially popular among VOD users
Scarborough Research released an analysis of VOD Users - those consumers who live in households that used VOD during the past month. The analysis found that VOD Users are 27% more likely than all consumers to cite reality programs as a television genre that they typically watch. Nationally, 7% of consumers live in a household that used VOD during the past month.
| Read More... |
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| Stock Talk |
Waiting for the Fed
Investors are still waiting to see what the Fed will do about rates as its meeting concludes today, but there was some interest in buying stocks yesterday. The Dow Industrials rose 49 points, or 0.5%, to 10,974.
TV stocks were mixed. SBS rose 3.6%, pulling back out of penny stock territory. ACME gained 1.8% and News Corp. rose 1.5%. Media General took a tumble, falling 5.6%. It was not clear whether the move was related to this week's acquisition of four TV stations from NBC.
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| Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Wednesday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Acme
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ACME
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5.05
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+0.09
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LIN TV
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TVL
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7.90
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-0.01
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Belo
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BLC
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16.14
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-0.11
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McGraw-Hill
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MHP
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48.66
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-0.01
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| CBS CI. B |
CBS |
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26.63
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+0.11
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Media General
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MEG
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41.17
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-2.44
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| CBS CI. A |
CBSa |
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26.62
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+0.09
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Meredith
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MDP
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48.15
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+0.22
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Clear Channel
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CCU
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29.81
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-0.13
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News Corp.
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NWS
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19.85
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+0.30
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Disney
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DIS
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29.38
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-0.03
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Nexstar
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NXST
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4.54
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+0.32
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Emmis
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EMMS
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15.72
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-0.05
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NY Times
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NYT
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23.73
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+0.10
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Entravision
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EVC
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8.06
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+0.09
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Ion Media
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ION
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0.94
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+0.02
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Fisher
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FSCI
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42.17
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+0.32
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Saga Commun.
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SGA
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8.61
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-0.23
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Gannett
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GCI
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55.20
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+0.59
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SBS
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SBSA
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5.13
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+0.18
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Gen. Electric
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GE
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32.93
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+0.05
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Scripps
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SSP
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43.27
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-0.09
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Granite
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GBTVK
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0.18
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unch
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Sinclair
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SBGI
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8.21
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-0.02
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Gray
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GTN
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5.35
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-0.04
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Time Warner
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TWX
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17.12
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+0.14
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Gray, C1. A
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GTNa
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5.81
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-0.08
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Tribune
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TRB
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32.43
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-0.04
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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21.85
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-0.02
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Univision
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UVN
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33.71
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-0.29
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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11.20
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+0.02
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Wash. Post
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WPO
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773.00
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-4.15
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Lincoln Natl.
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LNC
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55.62
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+0.29
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Young
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YBTVA
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3.02
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+0.01
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to tvnews@rbr.com
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TV Media Moves
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CFO exits Fisher
According to an SEC filing, Robert C. Bateman and Fisher Communications agreed that Bateman would resign from his position as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of the Company effective July 31, 2006. There is yet no word on a permanent successor. Jodi Colligan, Vice President Finance, will serve as interim CFO.
A seat at the board table
Petry Media Corporation announced that Christopher Dickens has been elected to its board of directors. Dickens heads an international media consulting business after a long career in advertising and broadcasting.
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Below the Fold
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Ad Business Report
DirecTV campaign
Hits the gridiron featuring Colts quarterback Peyton Manning...
Media Markets & Money
Close encounter in Denver
Twenver Broadcast to Gannett is a done deal...
Entertainment Media
Business Report
CBS airing "Big Brother
All Stars" online and on mobile and online is getting hotter...
Ratings & Research
Reality tops for TiVo users
People just Love Reality and it shows...
Speaking of Reality programming
Shows especially popular among VOD users...
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June RBR/TVBR
Digital Magazine
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Take a look at what's in the June RBR/TVBR Solutions Magazine:
Valerie Geller, President/Geller Media, writes, "Put resources back into News/Talk radio." Cutting it to the bone isn't working. If you want to win in the format, the "next big thing" will be to give news/talk radio back the resources it needs to win.
OneonOne: Jim Farley, VP/News and Programming, handles WTOP, Washington Post Radio and Federal News Radio (Bonneville DC). He talks about coordinating the news flow back and forth from WTOP, WFED and Washington Post Radio; How he finds and cultivates local talent; what he thinks about radio cutting news operations a bit too much across the country; and more.
GM Talk: What do GMs look for in talk programming-are they looking to fill a demo or are they looking for a certain personality? How do they choose one over the others?
These and other hot industry issues addressed in June.
Read RBR/TVBR in 2 simple steps:
1.Create a simple account with Zinio and download the Zinio Reader.
2. You can then download the
June Issue of RBR/TVBR
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TVBR Radar 2006
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Television News you won't read any where else. TVBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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Round Two may begin
in Univision auction
There are hints that a topper bid could still be coming from the Televisa group, despite Univision announcing that it had accepted a bid from Haim Saban's group for 13.7 billion, including 1.4 billion in debt assumption.
TVBR observation: Should Azcarraga come back with a higher bid that the 35.75 he had initially offered, he would need to go substantially above the Saban bid. According to Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes, the Univision contract with Saban is believed to include a 300 million bucks break-up fee, so just to be on par with Saban's price of 36.25, the Televisa group would have to bid 37.25. We await the next move, if there is to be one.
06/28/06 TVBR #126
Price to the max in Tribune buyback
Fewer than the maximum 53 million shares were tendered in Tribune Company's Dutch auction, so the company will buy back all 45 million shares tendered at the maximum price of 32.50 per share. Tribune will also buy 10 million shares at the same price from the foundations that are its largest shareholder group and then up to 20 million in the open market. Although the auction didn't snare the full 53 million shares sought when announced last month CEO Dennis FitzSimons was claiming victory.
TVBR observation: And now back to the battles in the board room. One effect of these stock buybacks is to increase the relative voting power of the Chandler Trusts, FitzSimons' key critics, while decreasing the voting power of the McCormick Tribune Foundation and the Cantigny Foundation, which have supported his management. Yep there is more if you missed it in
06/28/06 TVBR #126
FCC content to
sidestep content issue
Richard C. Young was mad. Raycom's KWWL-TV in Waterloo IA ran a pair of editorials he felt were self-serving to Raycom without revealing that fact to the viewers. The first, aired 9/30/05 on a "Reality Checks" news program feature, called for adherence to the 2/17/09 deadline for ending analog television broadcasts. Young said the hidden fact was that Raycom would be able to stop side-by-side analog/digital broadcasts, and thus had an undisclosed financial interest in cutting off the analog side of the operation. The second, aired 11/7/05 and there is more in
06/27/06 TVBR #125
Stop Big Media
Directed to FCC proceeding 02-277: "I am writing to express my strong disapproval of any relaxation or elimination of the public interest limits on media ownership. Localism and diversity are the cornerstones of a democratic media system, and we cannot afford to compromise them in any way....
TVBR observation: Did you like this? It's the comment prepared at stopbigmedia.com that will be heading to the FCC from any citizen motivated enough to contact the FCC about the upcoming ownership proceeding but not motivated enough to compose their own comment. If you plan on monitoring public commentary, get ready to read this and many posts just like it over and over and over and....
06/27/06 TVBR #125
RBR First
Sign with Arbitron &
CCU dumps you in RFP
Clear Channel radio, which founded and is leading the Next-Generation Electronics Ratings Evaluation Team RFP process for the radio medium maybe having an issue with a number of radio groups that have signed a contract with Arbitron for the PPM service. First reported by RBR Clear Channel does not want radio groups that have signed a PPM contract with Arbitron to be part of the RFP process any more. CBS Radio (which recently signed for Arbitron PPM for a number of years), was the first to get kicked off team.
RBR observation: We had wondered what was going to happen. RBR had heard that some of the groups who had already signed contracts for PPM still wanted to help evaluate the competing system from The Media Audit/Ispos. While it might have been good for the industry to try to keep everyone working together, we can understand Clear Channel's position as well. Should someone serve on a jury if they've already made a decision? We also hear, though, that CC Radio itself was in negotiations with Arbitron for its own PPM contract, but cut off talks when MRC accreditation didn't come as quickly as expected. This seems to be a game of chess where everyone is trying to figure out what works to their own advantage, rather than really trying to arrive at the best solution for the entire radio industry and its advertisers. Last the big question is: What does this all look like through the lens of Wall Street and Madison Avenue? Like radio is not coming together with one voice and more in-fighting. Almost like a title from a B rated movie: The gang that couldn't shoot straight.
06/26/06 RBR #124
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