Welcome to TVBR's Daily Epaper
Volume 21, Issue 154, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
Monday Morning August 9th, 2004

TV News ®

Powering up the DTV plant
Stations operating a DTV station along side their traditional analog station have been thus far allowed to operate at reduced power. The time for that to change is now upon us. Here, straight from the FCC, are the parameters for getting your DTV station up to regulatory snuff. It comes under the heading "Replication and Maximization Deadlines." (see Radar column for a choice proposition on DTV) Editor's note: Best print this out as your rule book because if you ask your FCC Lawyer it will cost you but our observations are free. | More... |

Senators step up to the plate for Adelstein
A bipartisan group of Senate Commerce Committee members are making a third attempt to shake the proposed nomination of FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein out of the White House cubby hole wherein it is entrenched, and get it to the floor for a vote. 17 members of the committee signed a letter asking that President George W. Bush submit his name, as requested by Tom Daschle (D-SD) way back in February 2003. "During the Executive Session held on Thursday, July 22nd, the Members of the Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee expressed support for Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein's re-nomination to the Federal Communications Commission," reads the letter. "As a result, we are writing together to urge you to nominate Commissioner Adelstein to an additional term at the FCC. His term expired last year." Byron Dorgan (D-ND) said at that Executive Session that he had discussed the matter with the White House and that Adelstein's nomination was being held up for political reasons. Since his seat belongs to the Democrats, and he has wide support among Republicans, Bush's refusal to submit his name was seen as outside the normal way the executive and legislative branches do business with one another.

TVBR observation: Who's FCC it will be? - will be determined after November. A piece of history as RBR has the letter, dated last Thursday (8/5/04), showing the who's who inside the beltway. Have an open space on your office wall then you probably should print it out, frame it, and hang it - just to say you have a piece of political history.
Here's the letter.


Proxies waging campaign ad wars
Groups not affiliated with neither the campaign of George W. Bush nor John Kerry have been, and are continuing to be particularly active this year. And while the candidates must appreciate the support, the support is not without a certain amount of danger. Several groups, most importantly the Democratic National Committee, are carrying John Kerry's message into the battleground states. It comes at a time during which Kerry has elected to sit on his war chest, riding out the month-long gap during which the Bush campaign can spend freely while he cannot. This is because both candidates have agreed to accept $75M in federal campaign funding, conditioned on their pledge to spend no more than that. Kerry is nominated so he has to either save the money or spread it more thinly over time. Meanwhile, Bush can spend at will until he's nominated in the beginning of September.

TVBR observation: Show you the money the problem with the proxy or surrogate campaigns is control. Read it to fully understand where the money is.

Bloomberg sees bounce back
for radio stocks

Radio stocks have been taking it in the teeth all year - - Bloomberg.com says on average, 22 such issues they follow have dropped 16% this year compared to a 2% drop in the S&P 500. But the good news is, Bloomberg also says it sees signs of a turnaround. The key factor analysts are looking at is growth in employment. Employment numbers are finally growing after three straight years of losses. This is key for radio, which relies on local advertising for its own financial well-being. Local advertisers need to see people with money coming in the door - - otherwise, they aren't going to open their own wallets. They aren't going to spend money to make a pitch to people who don't have any money of their own to spend. The political category is expected to heat up, too, especially for radio. A $1B political pot is predicted by November. Of course, location is everything, as national campaigns stay out of sold red and blue states to what RBR is now officially dubbing the "purple" states - - states with enough red and blue to go either way. mAlthough some say that the Internet may be taking a bite out of radio's pie, at least one venerable analyst, Universal McCann's Robert Coen, is expecting the two media to grow in tandem, at least for the remainder of this year. RBR Closer Look recommends a click look back last week to our Winds of Naples, FL--Bending the Palm Trees 08/03/04 RBR #149.

TVBR observation: A prism through which Bloomberg spied radio's silver lining was an expected announcement that the economy produced 240K new jobs in July. The actual number turned out to be 32K, fueling a Wall Street sell-off, and possibly putting off radio's recovery by at least another month.


Conference Calls, Q2 2004

Entravision supports guidance
with strong Q2
Hispanic radio and TV operator Entravision Communications Corporation brought home a pro forma Q2 gain in net revenue of 8%, meeting the high end of its prior guidance for the quarter. Overall, it picked up a 7% gain in net revenue, a 17% gain in broadcast cash flow, and a 50% gain in free cash flow. "Our company generated improved results in the quarter as we capitalized on our growing ratings and an aggressive effort by our sale teams," said Chairman/CEO Walter Ulloa. "As we continue to capitalize on the significant growth of Spanish-language media, we are making inroads into attracting new advertisers who wish to penetrate our fast growing audience." Ulloa said the company has its eyes peeled for further strategic station investments, continuing to focus on markets with a high-density Hispanic population. Looking ahead, Entravision is aiming for a Q3 net revenue gain in the 9%-10% range. It expects television to lead the charge with a 12% gain, while radio and outdoor hit in the vicinity of 7%-8%. This guidance is pro forma, taking into account the sale of assets in Chicago and Fresno.

Skies are blue for Gray
Gray Television posted impressive gains in Q2 2002, and its comps look even better on a YTD basis. For the quarter, total broadcast revenue is up 12%, producing a whopping 73% gain in net income. The numbers for those two categories YTD are 15% and 146%. Gray sensibly broke out the on-again, off-again category of political advertising in breaking out some of its numbers. Doing show yields a 9% gain in local advertising for the quarter and an 11% gain YTD. Political has nonetheless been a healthy source of income. The group brought in $5.4M in Q2, and has banked $9M so far this year, thanks primarily to Mr. Bush and Mr. Kerry. The numbers above are for broadcasting and newspaper operations combined. Pure broadcast revenues, fueled by political, are up 15% YTD. Otherwise, local advertising is up 11%, with a modest 2% gain in national.


Adbiz ©

"Visible World" getting some attention at PHD
Pat McNew, PHD's EVP/Local Media Network Director of Operations, was invited last week to learn more about Visible World's digital IntelliSpot technology which was introduced to the marketplace last year. "There's a pretty large creative element involved in it, so I've got to have a drill-down with the creative guys and with the media people to decide what we're going to do with it. As soon as we get our heads around it, we'll have more to say." IntelliSpot is a customization solution for TV advertising that brings the ability to target demographic or geographic segments of the viewing audience to a whole new level. The technology allows advertisers to customize their messages and make them directly relevant to their target viewers by dynamically updating and automatically assembling television commercials specific to the audience. Advertisers are able to create and send hundreds of variations of a single campaign to different viewers with one media buy and without creating multiple ad versions. As a fully automated and streamlined process, IntelliSpot also enhances advertiser's ROI by reducing many of the costs associated with creating and distributing multiple versions of commercials while providing more timely ads by allowing spots to be quickly updated or modified. Current include New York Interconnect, National Cable Communications and Los Angeles-based interconnect Adlink.

Gaming integration boosts brand awareness
at DaimlerChrysler
Jeff Bell, VP of Chrysler/Jeep Marketing, talked up the effects of product integration in gaming for Chrysler brand awareness during his keynote address last week at the Jupiter Media Advertising Forum in NYC. The "Race the Pros" game garnered a 27.6% lift in Dodge brand awareness; a 19.6% purchase intent and a 24.7% rise in overall brand awareness for DaimlerChrysler among users who played/downloaded the game. It was promoted online at MSN and FoxSports.com and on Fox TV. The "Jeep 4x4 Trail of Life" game drew 383,403 participants. 39% of those who played expressed interest in purchasing a Jeep. Bell told attendees Jeep sold more than 1K 4WDs to people who had registered for the game over the last 18 months. "Chrysler Golf" drew 124,732 registrants; each was required to give geographic as well as car preference information prior to playing. Bell reportedly said the result was a 33% rise in purchasing intent over the next six months.

Pat McNew, PHD's EVP/Local Media Network Director of Operations, talks about the phenomenon in RBR/TVBR Solutions Magazine October issue. An excerpt: What non-traditional advertising have you explored with success? "Gaming has become a big initiative for us. We have developed several games with product integration. The response has been great, and there is considerable measurement of actual sales coming from users. Jeep has done several interactive games. Jeff Bell, VP of Chrysler/Jeep Marketing, is very much interested in trying to embed the brand at a much younger age if possible. So he feels that integration with video gaming is the way to go."

Bush campaign unveils new Spanish ad
President George Bush's re-campaign has launched a new Spanish TV spot, "Our Country, Our President, and "showing that"all the Latinos are together, no matter where we come from," said Lionel Sosa, an advertising adviser in the Bush re-election campaign. Nearly 40M Hispanics live in the US, making it the country's largest minority group. The ad begins with Bush, wearing a shirt without a tie, saying in Spanish: "I am President George W. Bush, and I approved this message." The spot, which features the flags of such countries as Cuba, Venezuela and Mexico, will be broadcast in the key states of Florida, New Mexico, Nevada, Arizona and Colorado, all with large Hispanic populations. During the ad, a voice-over says in Spanish: "We live in a country that has opened up its heart to us and has given us a real opportunity: the United States, our country; George W. Bush, our president."


Media, Markets & Money tm

Pegasus pulls a twofer
Pegasus Communications, fresh off a landmark agreement with DirecTV which should end a long-term dispute with the $938M sale of Pegasus' DirecTV-related assets to that company, has just announced a two-for-one stock split for shareholders of both Class A and Class B common stock. The purpose to the move is to keep the company in line with NASDAQ issue standards. The problem is on the Class A side, where about 4.8M of 5.7M shares are held by Pegasus directors, and officers, and by individuals with a 10% stake or greater. There are only 916K shares of Class B. NASDAQ wants at least 750K out there. That puts the company only a little more than 250K over the threshold. Therefore, the ultimate purpose of the move is to create some breathing room.

For sale: National company, rustic setting
Feel like going to tiny, remote Coudersport PA to kick the tires of one of the nation's largest cable companies? That chance may soon present itself, as troubled, bankrupt Adelphia gets ready to go on the block. The scandal-wracked company is said to be the fifth-largest multiple cable system operator in the US. UBS Investment Bank and Allen & Co. will handle the sale. And you won't have to journey to the wilds of Pennsylvania, either - - Adelphia is now conducting business from the Denver suburb of Greenwood Village CO. A final decision to sell all or part of the company, which operates in some 30 states won't be made for some time yet. Interested parties should make themselves known by October.


Washington Beat

Lieberman earns
Porker of the Month award
Let's pose a question. Is it good for children to spend a great deal of their time watching TV? You said no, didn't you? Didn't cost you a penny. However, Sen. Joe Lieberman (D-CT) wants to spend $90M of our taxpayer dollars to arrive at what we pretty much know in advance will be the same answer. That's the opinion of Citizens Against Government Waste (CAGW), which awarded Lieberman the Porker of the Month Award for introducing S. 2447 the Children and Media Research Advancement Act (CAMRA). Although Lieberman said, "...no one is looking out, in a systematic way, for what our children are looking at...," CAGW pointed out numerous examples of citizens groups which are on the job daily, and quotes a representative of one of them, Lara Mahaney of the Parents Television Council, who said, "To spend $90M on something we already know is just a waste of money."


Programming

PTC's new best and worst TV lists are out
The Parent's Television Council has put out its 2004 Top Ten lilts for the 2003-2004 TV seasons, listing the best family-friendly shows and the worst. In fact, the degree of propriety for children is the basis for the rankings. Here are the top winners and losers:

Best shows:
1. Joan of Arcadia (CBS); 2. Doc (PAX); 3. Sue Thomas F.B. Eye (PAX); 4. Reba (WB); 5. 7th Heaven (WB); 6. Extreme Makeover (ABC); 7. Everybody Loves Raymond (CBS); 8. American Idol (FOX); 9. American Dreams (NBC); 10.
Bernie Mac Show (FOX).

Worst shows:
1. Everwood (WB); 2. That 70s Show (FOX); 3. Fear Factor (NBC); 4. Two and a Half Men (CBS); 5. C.S.I. (CBS); 6. The Surreal Life (WB); 7. Girlfriends (UPN); 8. Las Vegas (NBC); 9. Will & Grace (NBC); 10. Cold Case (CBS).

How'd the networks fare? Here are the rankings: 1. PAX (2-0); 2. ABC (1-0); 3. FOX (2-1); 4. WB (2-2); 5. CBS (2-3); 6. NBC (1-3); 7. UPN (0-1).

TVBR observation: We disagree on two of the PTC's worst - Las Vegas is good entertainment and Cold Case is solid programming growth content.

Oprah Winfrey renews to 2011
A contract that will take her top-rated daytime show to 2011. The new three-year deal with distributor King World Productions starts in 2008 and will take "The Oprah Winfrey Show" to its 25th year of syndication. Since its national premiere in '86, the show has won 38 Emmy awards, been distributed to 107 countries and been a top-rated talk show in the US for the past 18 years. "The thought of taking the show to its 25th anniversary is both exhilarating and challenging," Winfrey said in a statement.

TVBR observation: The announced by Winfrey's Harpo Productions, CBS Enterprises and King World Productions has made a lot of affiliates breath easier since Oprah in many cases is a lead into many local news programming blocks that lead into their network national like NBC's Brokaw etc.


Research

Study takes a new look at tots and TV
TV watching is common among babies and toddlers in the US, but middle-class parents may be limiting the fare to educational shows and videos. "We don't know if all these parents are telling the truth, and we don't know the long-term effects on kids of starting this so young," says Yale University psychologist Dorothy Singer, who reported on her study at a recent American Psychological Association meeting. However, she says there could be positive effects from the high teaching content of videos and programs chosen, along with the frequent parent-child interaction as tots watched. | More... |


Monday Morning Shakers & Makers

Deals: 6/28/04-7/2/04
Did somebody say doldrums? Yeah, Saga's Ed Christian used that term to describe the current trading environment. This week barely made it into the eight-figure threshold. Of the paltry nine stations traded, two were FM CPs, for a total of $10,601 total (one was sold for a buck) and two were swapped noncoms we couldn't assign any value to at all. Yawn....

6/28/04-7/2/04

Total

Total Deals

8

AMs

3

FMs

5

TVs

1
Value
$10,395,601
| Complete Charts |
Radio Deal of the Week
Douglas doubles down in Sin City
| More...
|
TV Deal of the Week
Driving 55 in the Houston fringe
| More...
|


Stock Talk

Look out below redux
It was another rugged day on Wall Street Friday, as companies in general had to labor to hold value thanks to the Department of Labor and its disappointing news on job creation. Bloomberg, which just noted a possible turnaround for radio stocks because of the improving employment situation, seems to have spoken too soon. On the plus side, Hispanic stalwart Entravision managed to pick up 2/3's of a buck on an otherwise dismal day.


TV Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Friday

Company Symbol Close Change Company Symbol Close Change

Acme

ACME

$6.10

-$0.05

McGraw-Hill

MHP

$73.45

-$1.07

Belo

BLC

$21.55

-$1.66

Media General

MEG

$58.02

-$1.29

Clear Channel

CCU

$36.39

-$0.39

Meredith

MDP

$50.40

-$1.00

Disney

DIS

$21.99

-$0.29

News Corp.

NWS

$32.29

-$0.21

Emmis

EMMS

$19.69

-$0.08

Nexstar

NXST

$8.51

+$0.07

Entravision

EVC

$8.08

+$0.67

NY Times

NYT

$40.82

-$0.50

Fisher

FSCI

$46.75

-$2.46

Paxson

PAX

$2.63

-$0.15

Fox

FOX

$25.72

-$0.41

Saga Commun.

SGA

$17.36

-$0.10

Gannett

GCI

$80.86

-$2.24

Scripps

SSP

$101.32

-$1.99

Gen. Electric

GE

$31.52

-$0.70

Sinclair

SBGI

$8.15

-$0.82

Granite

GBTVK

$0.67

$0.00

Time Warner

TWX

$16.33

-$0.31

Gray

GTN

$11.51

+$0.05

Tribune

TRB

$40.95

-$0.45

Gray, C1. A

GTNa

$10.84

+$0.03

Univision

UVN

$34.16

+$0.16

Hearst-Argyle

HTV

$23.55

-$0.09

Viacom, Cl. A

VIA

$33.72

-$0.55

Jeff-Pilot

JP

$48.07

-$0.05

Viacom, Cl. B

VIAb

$33.11

-$0.76

Journal Comm.

JRN

$16.16

-$0.51

Wash. Post

WPO

$857.25

-$5.75

Liberty Corp

LC

$41.40

-$0.92

Young

YBTVA

$9.70

-$0.40

LIN TV

TVL

$19.15

-$0.26

- - - -

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TVBR Radar 2004
Click on these issues for TV News you won't read any where else. TVBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

A choice proposition on DTV
Most television broadcasters are currently operating on two channels, with one broadcast going out in analog and the other in digital. The time is rapidly approaching when final decisions must which channel - - perhaps one the two already occupied or perhaps a third option - - will become the permanent home when the station is digital-only. Here, straight from the FCC, are the channel election parameters.
08/06/04 TVBR #153

TVBR economic snapshot
The economic recovery continues to caterpillar forth, with each new day providing a freshly mixed bag of signs for the tea-leaf rewders to ponder. This time, while jobless claims were down, so were retail sales. But there is something which may be going up - - interest rates. Various prediction is Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan is going to put another quarter of a percent onto the prime ! rate, moving it from 1.25% to 1.5%. This is because for all the sluggishness, there are also positive signs, such as renewed consumer confidence and a jump in auto sales. Editor's note: Best have your business model in place after November 2nd. For whom the bell tolls rings 01/01/05.
08/06/04 TVBR #153

Nexstar CEO Sook says
JSA NPRM is a long shot
Major issue facing TV broadcasters addressed by Perry Sook is - The FCC's Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on TV station JSAs. We feel this is the start of a process. And with changes in the Commissioner ranks at the FCC, we think regardless of the outcome of the election we think this process will take a substantial amount of time to play out-perhaps years.
08/05/04 TVBR #152

TVB: cable penetration drops, satellite rises
Nielsen figures showing a nine-year low in cable penetration thanks to the growth of alternative delivery systems (ADS), which are mostly, satellite DBS. See the list.
08/05/04 TVBR #152

FCC puts the cattle-prod
to DTV process
The FCC has taken several steps toward bringing the conversion to digital television to a conclusion. All of them are aimed squarely at broadcasters. 08/05/04 TVBR #152

TV/DTV allotment requests on ice
The FCC is putting a freeze on all requests to make allotment and/or service area changes to existing analog and/or digital television stations. It goes into effect immediately and will stay in effect until further notice. The action is being taken to further the DTV transition. TVBR observation: Annoyed? Wanna comment? Forget it. The FCC explains that, too, saying that "...this freeze is procedural in nature and therefore the freeze is not subject to the notice and comment and effective date requirements..." most such dictates require.
08/04/04 TVBR #151

Another FCC light bulb idea
May see light as the commission is thinking of dimming the light on Joint Sales Rules (JSA) on the TV side. Big area of concern here but few years away. TVBR observation: When was the last time - first time - any FCC commissioner hit the streets at 8:30am and sold a spot in any competitive environment? Answer? Idle hands in an election year - you know the saying. 08/04/04 TVBR #151

RBR Closer Look
The Number two radio group in size
Cumulus Media and their CEO Lew Dickey went under the RBR microscope from - Survived "the perfect storm" - - Confluence of disparate events, all of which conspired to inflict particular damage on the radio image. - Not part of the spot clutter problem and welcomed Clear Channel's upcoming spot diet, - Somewhat-embattled ratings giant Arbitron a vote of confidence.
RBR observation: See the total report. 08/04/04 RBR #151

TVBR Closer Look
Winds of Naples, FL
Bending the Palm Trees

Hurricane season doesn't officially end until Nov. 30th. but they are coming; just wait. Key forecaster Bob Coen from Universal-McCann media revenue forecast sees these storms for the balance of 2004. This is just the short term picture. We have heard many new buzz words and phrases hanging around: Spot Load Diet, Forward Guidance ending, Weekly Pacing canned, Reality Show is charted to pace your individual station(s) by to hit your budget compliance.
08/03/04 TVBR #150

Veronis Suhler takes stock of communications
Has dusted off its crystal ball, and sees a turnaround in communications and advertising businesses which should carry forth into 2008. TVBR observation: Does this mean we can all just sit back, try not to screw up and watch the money roll in?
08/03/04 TVBR #150

Veronis Suhler Stevenson
sees radio growth returning
Defend and remain convinced that radio is going to return to its normal pattern of 6%+ growth. The question is when? At this point, it appears that the VSS forecast out today of 6.7% growth for 2004 is extremely bullish. TVBR observation: Again, no forward pacing so for your guidance we suggest you print the chart attached inside. 08/02/04 TVBR #149

Concentrating on men
Reaching men included a great chart ranking programming elements of both radio and television side-by-side in terms of their ability to find high concentrations of men, without wasting impressions on women, if that is germane to your particular advertising campaign. In general, a number of radio formats do a better job than any television format in delivering a high concentration of men. TVBR observation: When viewing the TV list this is a place for cross marketing and if radio markets on TV then it seems logical to buy that 15 or 30 second promo spot for your morning drive on Leno or Letterman plus don't forget cable and guys like Dennis Miller etc. View this as a good research programming tool. 08/02/04 TVBR #149

Who gets the FCC FINE?
Well, the 'F' word slipped out plus others choice phrases from the mouth of DNC Don Misher when all was happy except the balloons didn't fall as planned. Misher caught on-air by CNN saying: We need balloons... I want all balloons, 'God---' no balloons. Then the slip of that great 'Fudge' word - just over a few crummy balloons. TVBR observation: Who does FCC fine? The balloon maker, the balloon blower upper, the balloon cord puller, Misher, the DNC, John Kerry since those balloons were for him, or CNN? Na on CNN that is cable. Ah, what the 'Fudge', nobody cares. It was a slip of the, ahhh, tongue. 07/30/04 TVBR #148

Radio Look see - Local gains lead to modest June increase
The radio industry picked up the pace with local advertising in June, bringing in 5% more cash than in the same month in 2003. National business, on the other hand, was an anchor that slipped out of the boat, dragging the total business increase to a gain of 3%. But at least it was a gain! RBR observation: Most of the mid-level radio group dog and pony shows have featured reports of a more robust Q2 and YTD. Some one must be having problems!
07/30/04 RBR #148

DTV transition:
Fritts offers an olive branch
Acting on the advice of Rep. Billy Tauzin (R-LA), has fired off a letter to his opposite number at the NCTA, Robert Sachs, proposing that representative of the broadcast and cable businesses sit down soon to hash out details of the DTV transition. TVBR observation: Tauzin is absolutely right - - to begin with, legislators are not experts in broadcasting or cable. They do not necessarily know when they are monkeying with a trifle or with a cornerstone of either business. To top it off, their broadcast vote may be little more than a bargaining chip - - something to trade in return for a vote to get a new cloverleaf built in their district! If the broadcasting and cable industries want a resolution that is businesslike, they will be much better off doing it themselves. 07/28/04 TVBR #146

Another analyst weighs in on Clear Channel's "more is less"
"Reading between the lines of management comments, we believe inventory reduction heavily involves inventory unit sales shift from 60 second units to 30 second units without significant unit price discount," RBC Capital Markets analyst David Bank. But he says details of just how that will be accomplished remain "elusive."
RBR observation: Interesting question Mr. Bank raises: Cutting spots in overnights might reduce clutter and even increase average unit prices, but if nobody's listening, does it matter? On the other hand, it is hard to see how CCU can cut inventory in its most important day-parts... 07/28/04 RBR #146


TV editor
Do you know the business of television? While other trade publications are cutting back, we're growing. Television Business Report (TVBR) is the hottest new electronic daily, backed by over 21 years of success at Radio Business Report. If you know who's who and what's what in TV & Cable, send resumes to CJCarnegie@rbr.com
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