Welcome to TVBR's Daily Epaper
Volume 21, Issue 180, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
Wednesday Morning September 15th, 2004

TV News ®

BofA analyst
goes negative on TV
Belo, Hearst-Argyle and LIN all saw their stock prices fall yesterday after Banc of America Securities analyst Jonathan Jacoby cut them to "neutral" from "buy." Jacoby said this year's election dollars are already priced into the stocks and there's a risk that some groups not in battleground states could come up short on political revenue expectations. "While quite robust," Jacoby said political ad buys are more concentrated than in past elections and might not pressure the entire TV marketplace. Rather, inventories will be tight in some places, but not in others, so not all TV group owners will benefit to the same degree. He also sees a long-term shift in how political dollars are spent. "While local TV is still the gorilla for political advertising, cable is starting to pull in a larger percentage of political dollars," he said. "We expect broadcast TV remains to capture around 56% of all political advertising in 2004 - - the same level as in 2000 - - but cable is expected to grow to around 3% from 1.6% during the same timeframe. We now believe that in 2006 cable stands to gain more market share, benefiting from more targeted advertising technology." As for the three downgraded stocks, Jacoby said they have rebounded from their lows and are now near his price targets. So he's reducing growth expectations for the entire TV sector for Q3 to 12% (from 13.6%) and for Q4 to 15.1% (from 16.9%) and lowering his recommendation for the three TV stocks he previously had with "buy" ratings. "We do not believe they represent a compelling buying opportunity at this time," he said of Belo, Hearst-Argyle and LIN.

Look out Clear Channel and Viacom!
NBC is in the outdoor business
In a surprise move to expand into a new industry, NBC Universal has announced a joint venture from France's JCDecaux to bid for the street furniture advertising contract with the City of New York. The joint venture is called NBCDecaux. It has filed its bid for the city's contract to design, install and maintain up to 3,500 bus shelters, 330 newsstands and other public amenities throughout New York City. "NBC is to in-home advertising what JCDecaux is to out-of-home advertising - - we both create first-class environments that enhance the messages our advertisers want to deliver," said Bob Wright, Chairman and CEO of NBC Universal. "WNBC is the leading television station in the New York market. Putting the strength of WNBC and Telemundo's WNJU, our New York Spanish-language station, together with JCDecaux will allow NBCDecaux to better serve the public and give advertisers some extremely desirable settings in which they can reach a wide cross-section of New Yorkers."

Congressional races bring new turf into play
Seats up from grabs in the Senate and House of Representatives are hard to come by, and they do not necessarily parallel the states which are considered to be in play in the presidential race. Some races are attracting national dollars to places otherwise ignored by Bush and Kerry. According to the Center for Public Integrity, the election committees of both houses of both parties are funneling money into campaigns where they think they have a shot at an upset, or a defense to mount. Three states have had early infusions, only one of which is a presidential battleground. That is Florida, where the GOP has sent nearly 660K dollars. The Republicans have also sent 1M to California, where they are hoping to oust Sen. Barbara Boxer. The Democrats have sent even more money to the decidedly non-battleground state of Alaska. Although George W. Bush isn't expected to have any trouble carrying the state, the same cannot be said of GOP senatorial candidate Lisa Murkowski, who faces a spirited challenge from Tony Knowles, Alaska's former governor. The Dems have already invested 1.3M there. According to CPI, $13.5M dollars had flowed from Capitol Hill to local races. That number is expected to be a mere tip of the iceberg by the time November 2 rolls around.


Could Comcast's Stephen Burke
head Disney?
While the company's takeover bid was rejected, Comcast's Stephen Burke could still end up running Disney after Michael Eisner leaves. His father was part of the old Cap Cities, the #2 guy. According to the LA Times, Burke has ties to Disney that stretch back to the Resurrection Church in Rye, NY, where his family sat in a pew in front of Disney director Tom Murphy, his father's boss of 30 years. "He was my dad's boss, but we were good friends," Burke, 46, said in an interview. "I called him Uncle Tom." Burke's father, Dan, worked with Murphy at broadcaster Capital Cities/ABC before Burbank-based Disney bought it in 1996. Stephen followed his dad into the business and spent 12 years at Disney, the second-biggest U.S. media company. Burke's experience running ABC and the Euro Disney theme park helped Comcast formulate its 54.1 billion hostile bid for Disney. So, does all that make him a contender for the CEO post at Disney? We'll wait and see.

NABTP confab in the offing
The National Association of Black Telecommunications Professionals three-day session, "Telecommunications - - Moving Messages, Lifting Communities," is about to kick off. Emerging technologies and public policy and regulatory issues will be hot topics. It runs from 9/16-18/04 in Washington DC. Particular attention will be paid to the upcoming FCC FM Auction 37 and Wireless Auction 58. A seminar 9/17/04, from 8:30 AM-12:00 noon, will cover the following topics:

* Upcoming auctions and their economic potential
* FCC rules and procedures governing auctions
* Assembling and structuring a company to bid in an auction
* Raising capital for an auction bid
* Engineering to plan and support auction bids
* Bidding strategy

Speakers include the FCC's John Muleta and Thomas Nessinger, Francisco Montero of the Independent Spanish Broadcasters Association, Ari Fitzgerald of Hogan & Hartson, S. Jenell Trigg of Leventhal Senter & Lerman, Raymond Quianzon of Fletcher Heald & Hildreth and Jack Mullaney of Mullaney Engineering.

Brokaw to keynote RTNDA awards
As he prepares to retire from anchoring the "NBC Nightly News" after the November election, Tom Brokaw has been tapped to deliver the keynote speech to the RTNDA Awards Dinner October 4th in New York. And it looks like his friendly rivals will be there as well to wish Brokaw well. Both CBS' Dan Rather and ABC's Peter Jennings are also scheduled to speak.


Adbiz ©

Millward Brown:
Marketing, media budgets to be up in 2005
Millward Brown announced the results of Marketing & Media Snapshot: 2004, its industry study about marketing and media decision-making. The research, which was conducted among senior-level marketing executives across a wide range of industries, covers trends in marketing and media decision-making, perceptions about media and marketing channel performance, media and marketing spending patterns, and the integration of digital and online media into the marketing mix. The findings from the Millward Brown study, which was sponsored by Advertising.com, was presented by Mary Ann Packo, chief client and marketing officer, Millward Brown North America, at the iMedia Brand Summit in Deer Valley, Utah. | More... |

Lifetime launches new
Get-Out-The-Vote PSA effort

Lifetime Television is launching a trio of humorous new PSAs encouraging women to vote this November as part of its year-long non-partisan "Our Lifetime Commitment: Every Woman Counts" public education campaign to empower women of all ages and diverse backgrounds to become part of the democratic process as voters and future candidates. The 20 second spots, which run through 11/2, Election Day, focus on 'decisions' a woman might face: selecting a wedding gown, naming her baby or choosing a new hair style. In each situation, the woman allows someone else to make the decision and then regrets it later. In reality, few women would let someone else make these decisions for her and the PSAs stress that they also should not leave the critical decision of who will be President up to anyone else, either.


Media, Markets & Money tm

Hartstone at NABOB on the art of the deal
If you don't a thorough understanding of all aspects of a prospective broadcast deal before going to the money people, "You're going to miss the strike zone by a country mile." So said Joel Hartstone of Stonegate Capital at the National Association of Black Owned Broadcasters session of station trading and finance last week (9/10/04). Here are the ducks he feels need to be in their appropriate row.

TVBR observation: If you want to become a station owner, this is the kind of advice you need to pay attention to. Over the years we've seen many people who know a lot about radio run into a brick wall when they tried to become a station owner - - because they didn't learn how the finances of ownership work before they tried to put together a deal. Worse yet, we've seen some who managed to buy a station without really understanding the financial equation and, as a consequence, saw their dream implode. Don't let that happen to you. | More... |


Washington Beat

FM auction taking shape
There are 363 confirmed bidders eligible to participate in Auction No. 37, with another 308 applicants with a few more questions to answer. The possible pool of 671 will be competing for 288 available FM CP frequencies. The auction is scheduled for 11/3/04 (the day after Election Day). Another 26 applicants were rejected. The FCC noted that many of these were disqualified because they checked the "noncommercial educational" box on the application, an act which was prohibited in this particular auction. Noncoms were handled separately when the current crop of frequencies was put up for grabs. Filers of incomplete applications have been advised of their deficiencies and have been given an opportunity to correct them. They have until 9/24/04 to accomplish this.

Radio One deal under attack
Robin M. Rothschild has challenged the license renewals of several Radio One properties in Ohio, and while that challenge is lending, is further challenging the group's qualifications as a suitable assignee of WABZ-FM Albemarle NC, which it has filed to acquire from Susquehanna and move into the Charlotte market. | More... |


Stock Talk

All that buying and selling to go nowhere
Stock prices were little changed Tuesday, as traders digested the negative news of a disappointing retail sales report and higher oil prices. The Dow Industrials did manage to edge up three points to close at 10,318.

TV stocks were mixed. Top honors on the up side went to Paxson, up 4.9%, and News Corp., up 3.5%. After receiving downgrades from BofA Securities (see TV News), Belo was down 2%, Hearst-Argyle 0.6% and LIN1%.


TV Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Tuesday

Company Symbol Close Change Company Symbol Close Change

Acme

ACME

6.15

-0.11

McGraw-Hill

MHP

77.05

+0.37

Belo

BLC

22.63

-0.45

Media General

MEG

58.82

-0.33

Clear Channel

CCU

33.35

+0.16

Meredith

MDP

50.99

+0.02

Disney

DIS

23.25

-0.07

News Corp.

NWS

32.45

+1.11

Emmis

EMMS

18.60

-0.10

Nexstar

NXST

8.40

-0.06

Entravision

EVC

8.18

+0.05

NY Times

NYT

41.03

+0.03

Fisher

FSCI

48.29

-0.70

Paxson

PAX

1.70

+0.08

Fox

FOX

28.26

+0.45

Saga Commun.

SGA

17.92

+0.18

Gannett

GCI

86.78

+0.46

Scripps

SSP

49.66

-1.56

Gen. Electric

GE

33.82

+0.07

Sinclair

SBGI

8.00

-0.01

Granite

GBTVK

0.40

+0.01

Time Warner

TWX

16.80

+0.35

Gray

GTN

12.90

-0.03

Tribune

TRB

40.35

+0.35

Gray, C1. A

GTNa

12.04

-0.08

Univision

UVN

32.88

+0.54

Hearst-Argyle

HTV

25.00

-0.15

Viacom, Cl. A

VIA

35.29

+0.04

Jeff-Pilot

JP

49.49

-0.49

Viacom, Cl. B

VIAb

34.99

+0.20

Journal Comm.

JRN

17.70

+0.02

Wash. Post

WPO

910.02

+2.02

Liberty Corp

LC

40.13

-0.32

Young

YBTVA

12.10

-0.28

LIN TV

TVL

20.05

-0.20

- - - - -

Have a news story you'd like to share? tvnews@rbr.com

Bounceback

We want to
hear from you.

This is your column, so send your comments to tvnews@rbr.com

The story is in today's Washington Beat, but we already have a comment from a reader.

The FCC has finally released the list of applicants for the new FM channels in Auction 37. Well... sort of. The way the Public Notice is written, it can take hours of research just to find out how many applicants filed on a particular channel. Why couldn't they put out a list by market showing the applicants? And why is it that almost half of the applications are listed as incomplete? Could it be that the auction process is so convoluted that even high-priced D.C. attorneys can't figure it out? My application was listed as incomplete because it had a post office box. But that's the only addresses we have in American Samoa. There are no street names and no numbers. I guess I could put down "next to the big coconut tree", but that's not a deliverable address either. There has got to be a better way to do this!

Larry Fuss, President
South Seas Broadcasting, Inc.
KKHJ-FM & WVUV-AM
Pago Pago, American Samoa


Upped & Tapped

Mr. Meyrowitz
goes to Washington
OK, so he's already in DC as GSM, but Tribune has promoted Eric Meyrowitz to VP/GM of WBDC-TV (Ch. 50, WB). He succeeds Jerry Martin, who was recently sent to Indianapolis (8/11/04 TVBR Daily Epaper #156).

Wilk joins
Hearst-Argyle
Long-time WTTG-TV Washington Managing Editor Wendy Wilk has joined Hearst-Argyle as Washington Bureau Chief. She succeeds Fred Young, who is leaving to form a book publishing company.

Dolgin says yes to YES
Former Fox Sports Net executive Tracy Dolgin has been named CEO of YES Network, the cable outlet of the New York Yankees.


Competing Media

First reported here
in Tuesday's Bulletin
Consolidation within
the radio consolidator:
CCU merging Premiere and CC Advantage operations into Katz
You read it here first - - in Tuesday's RBR/TVBR Bulletin that Clear Channel is putting Premiere Radio Networks and Clear Channel Advantage under Katz Media Group CEO Stu Olds. Premiere will keep its name, but CEO Kraig Kitchin will report to Olds. CC Advantage will merge with Katz Dimension, with the whole thing to be called Clear Channel Katz Advantage. It's not really a complete merger, but a lot is changing. See inside for the details. TVBR Observation: Katz has no history in programming. The original TranStar Radio Network (now part of Westwood One) was lost on Stu Olds' watch. CCU has still never successfully consolidated all the pieces of their empire - - Outdoor, Internet, network radio, concerts and spot. Perhaps this is another attempt at it. CCU is the only company that has the potential to compete on a national level with the Yahoos, the MTVs, etc, in order to put demand-side pressure on the inventory. Until they can do this, this industry is going to flounder. The question: are Stu Olds and Bonnie Press the people who can do this? | More... |


August Digital Magazine

Complimentary Report
No more Forward Pacing Reports.
We have the economic, political, and close up look at your 4th quarter of business
and what must be done to hit budget by year's end.

GM of Cadillac,
Mark LaNeve
tells it like it is on where he
spends ad dollars.

Read RBR in 2 simple steps:
1.Create a simple account with Zinio and download the free Zinio Reader.
2. You can then download the free August Issue of RBR


TVBR Radar 2004
Click on these issues for TV News you won't read any where else. TVBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Olympics send Gannett
TV revenues soaring
Talk about getting a bump from the Summer Olympics! 13 of Gannett's 21 TV stations are NBC affiliates, so it saw TV revenues jump 36.9% in August, with local up 27.8% and national 54.5%. Including recently acquired Captivate (an elevator TV screen ad business), August revenues for the TV division were up 37.5% to 77 million dollars. Based on current pacings, Gannett said it expects Q3 TV revenues to be up in the mid to high teens.
TVBR observation: With those results wonder how NBC really made out on both sides of TV - their affiliates and O&O's plus the cable outlets. Viewers saw many events via cable that they only heard about before like badminton and lots of volleyball. But this bump is once every four years. But it demonstrates the need for content and presentation. 09/14/04 TVBR #179

RBC warns investors of
soft radio revenues
David Bank is warning investors that radio revenues are pacing behind his previous expectations for Q3 - - and that Q4 is worrisome as well. In a note which headlined that Q3 for radio came in "like a lamb" and appears to be going out the same way. RBR observation: Heads up people because the fourth Q is at risk. Now you can not point any finger at Naples, FL or Barron's or Forbes. Best read further on.
09/14/04 TVBR #179


TV editor
Do you know the business of television? While other trade publications are cutting back, we're growing. Television Business Report (TVBR) is the hottest new electronic daily, backed by over 21 years of success at Radio Business Report. If you know who's who and what's what in TV & Cable, send resumes to CJCarnegie@rbr.com
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