Most TV stocks were slightly higher. Emmis led the modest advance, rising 2.4%. Scripps was up 2.3%.

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Boyle cuts radio outlook
You had to see this coming with his warning about industry bellwether Emmis (9/22/04 TVBR Daily Epaper #185). Wachovia Securities analyst Jim Boyle has now cut his Q3 and Q4 estimates for the entire radio sector. "The August monthly pacings came in flattish. Forward orders for September-October have fallen off more than we had expected," Boyle said in a note to clients. As a result, he's cut his Q3 estimate of radio revenue growth to 0% from his previous 2% and Q4 to 5% from his previous 8%. That drops his growth estimate for all of 2004 to 3% from his previous 4.2%.

TVBR observation: Boyle is not a total pessimist. He thinks the industry is on the right track with efforts to reduce clutter, such as Clear Channel's "Less is More" campaign. But he says the rate cutting epidemic that began last spring is still continuing in some places. He's optimistic that the efforts to bolster rates by reducing inventory - - something he says is "rational and long overdue" - - should begin to bear fruit by Q2 of 2005. In the meantime, he says the niche formats and niche groups are the place for growth in radio - - both Urban and Hispanic - - and Radio One is his top recommendation.

KVI-AM Seattle brands as Fox News station
KVI-AM Seattle and Fox News have partnered to provide the first Fox News branded radio station in the country. As you'll read, it's not an affiliation, but an INTEGRATION. Yesterday, KVI Talk Radio began featuring Fox News' top personalities and Fox News Radio news updates, in addition to its own line-up of local stars. The station's new moniker is "KVI Talk Radio 570...Fox News and talk radio." | More... |

Commissioners unanimous
but not eye-to-eye
The Commissioners voted 5-0 to nail Viacom for the Super Bow incident, but in so doing did not see things as one. Four of them, all but Kathleen Abernathy, appended personal comments to the NAL. A big area of disagreement was the decision to fine the 20 Viacom O&Os while letting some 200 additional affiliates off the hook. TVBR observation: NO guts Commissioners. What you call a whopper is something most buy in a drive thru fast food joint. A real fine would have been the 27 thousand to each CBS affiliate then you would have gotten peoples attention. Would have hurt the business but if you were looking for attention you didn't get ours just news outlets that wanted to take a shot at CBS. You should have fined the producers of the show like MTV and the NFL. 09/23/04 TVBR #186

McCain fails to get
hard DTV deadline
Attempt to get a hard deadline of 1/1/09 for the return of all analog television spectrum to the government for reallocation to public safety organizations was headed off in committee. However, if the amended measure does move forward, some of that spectrum could go to public safety groups even earlier, and money will be allocated to make sure poorer Americans make the digital transition with everyone else. 09/23/04 TVBR #186

Will Emmis miss its radio guidance?
That's what Wachovia Securities analyst Jim Boyle is warning of. Emmis, always the canary in the coal mine. is due to report results next Tuesday (9/28) for its fiscal Q2 - - June-August. Thinking is Emmis may hit its 10.5% revenue growth guidance for TV, but miss its 3% target for its larger radio group and issue conservative guidance for fiscal Q3. TVBR observation: Have we hit bottom? Answer is maybe not. Hang on this could be an unpleasant ride! 09/22/04 TVBR #185

Disney board to pick Eisner's successor by June 2005
The Board said now use that expensive luggage and get it packed. The directors said they would engage an executive search firm to aid them in making the choice, saying they would consider outsiders and one insider - - President and COO Bob Iger. To achieve its objective, the Board will: 1. Engage an executive search firm 2. Consider both internal and external candidates 3. Complete the process and announce a successor as soon as possible 4. Michael Eisner and the Board will work to assure a smooth and effective transition but are elected for a one year term. TVBR observation: The line bet goes to Iger.
09/22/04 TVBR #185

Which do we protect: 17M or 70M?
The battle lines are continually being drawn and redrawn on the bumpy road leading to the digital television conversion. The plan offered by Sen John McCain (R-AZ) to provide 1B dollars to some 17M unconnected TV households so that they can still receive a television picture when analog transmission goes bye-bye is already being challenged.
TVBR observation: With the clock ticking toward Election Day lawmakers are eager to get back home to campaign, so the smart money is against anything of significance happening real soon like until 2009? Reminds one of AM Stero.
09/22/04 TVBR #185

Sen. John 'Wayne' McCain looking for 1B in anti-blackout funds
Is preparing to ask for a significant taxpayer contribution to the televiewing of the unconnected when the digital television transition is finalized and analog broadcasts go away. McCain's plan would in effect be at least somewhat of an endorsement of the so-called "Ferree Plan," which would bring the end of analog broadcast about on 1/1/09, but would get there by counting analog receivers getting down-converted digital signals in the 85% digital-ready theshold which is the statutory target for the analog turn-off. 09/21/04 TVBR #184

Telecom 1996 up for review
Says Frank Blethen, the Seattle Times publisher took to the OpEd pages of the Washington Post 9/19/04 warning of the evils of excessive ownership concentration and media cross-ownership. Senate Commerce Committee is supposed to revisit the 1996 Telecommunications Act next year, an agenda item which could easily light off even more fireworks in the already incendiary history of the ownership debate. The Commerce Committee has already approved numerous reversals of the FCC 6/2/03 ownership rulemaking. Some of them have reappeared in other guises, such as the reversion to a 35% national potential audience reach cap for broadcast television group owners, down from the FCC's 45%. TVBR observation: This is great news if regulatory uncertainty is your cup of tea. People wishing to sit in on the Commerce Committee's proceedings should probably head over to the Russell Building on Capitol Hill right now and get in line. 09/21/04 TVBR #184

Campaign financing regs remanded
The US District Court in the District of Columbia has sent a slate of campaign rules written by the Federal Election Commission (FEC) back to be rewritten, saying that they opened up "an immense loophole" which Congress had no intention of putting on the books. 09/21/04 TVBR #184

HBO dominates the Emmys
Bada-Bing! Teaming up "The Sopranos," "Angeles in America" and other original fare, HBO, which used to be a cable network dependent on showing movies that had already run in theaters, ran rough-shod over the broadcast networks. In all, HBO took 32 Emmys. Compare that to Fox, which took second place with 10. Here's the list of winners of the major Emmys. TVBR observation: You answer the question - - What does this say for network TV programming and what the consumer wants and is willing to pay for? TA DUM. Content is King, people. Radio in many ways has lost that edge, Cochise, and soon that trend will come to TV as well - - so watch out for more product placement in place of creativity. 09/21/04 TVBR #184

TVBR Close-Up
Broadcast stocks: How low is low?
If you own radio or TV stocks, you know that they've fallen this year - - a lot. Most pure-play radio companies have lost at least a quarter of their value, many more than a third. TV stocks haven't done quite that badly, but are down double digits.
TVBR observation: The question now - have we hit bottom? TVBR's analysis chart inside tells the sad tale.
09/20/04 TVBR #183