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Volume 22, Issue 231, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
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Monday Morning November 28th, 2005
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TV News®
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 "Black Friday" weekend
spend up 5 billion
With higher energy prices, consumer confidence ebbing and a general lackluster economy, shoppers still reached deep into their pocketbooks this weekend in very healthy numbers. Thanks largely to competitive deep discounting and extra promotional spend from retailers, a National Retail Federation (NRF) survey conducted by BIGResearch found the average shopper spent 302.81 this weekend, 14.2% higher than their 2004 survey average of 265.15. Total weekend spending was 27.8 billion, up a whopping 21.9% over last year's 22.8 billion figure. However, according to ShopperTrak RCT Corp., which tracks sales at 45,000 retail outlets, the overall sales on Black Friday itself were relatively unchanged compared to a year ago. The Chicago-based research group reported total sales Friday at 8 billion, down 0.9% from a year ago. We have to note, though, that ShopperTrak doesn't count big box retailers like Wal Mart and Best Buy. Its data is mostly concentrated on shopping mall retailer traffic. "This year, we saw most of the traffic going to the non-mall retailers like Wal-Mart and Best Buy who had heavy promotions," Phil Rist, Vice President of Strategy for BIGresearch told RBR/TVBR. The NRF said sales on Black Friday were strong and that it was "the most promotional in history.'' That included advertising and heavy in-store promotions on particular items. The goal was to get shoppers in the store and keep them there. Over the weekend, 145 million shoppers flooded stores and the Internet hunting for popular electronics, clothing, and books. As for brick and mortar-only shoppers, more than 60 million headed to the stores on Black Friday, an increase of 7.9% over last year. Another 52.8 million shopped on Saturday, a rise of 13.3% over 2004, according to the NRF/BIGresearch survey. In 2004, Black Friday saw 64.6% consumers shopping; Saturday 54.1% and Sunday 25.3%. Also in 2004, nine million people got a head start on the crowds by shopping on Thanksgiving Day.
| See the data and demos here |
The nation's retailers also brought consumers in this year with earlier openings than a year ago. There were also a number of newcomers to the early bird special scene, including Disney Stores and Wal-Mart's Sam's Clubs. At Wal-Mart, the deep discounts and expanded hours appeared to have paid off, reversing a mediocre Black Friday last year at the world's largest retailer. Wal-Mart expects to post a 4.3% gain in same-store sales for November. For "Cyber Monday," according to Shop.org, an NRF division, 58.9 million consumers are expected to shop online today, from home or at work, in what is expected to be one of the biggest online shopping days of the year. NRF continues to project that holiday sales will rise 6.0% this year to 439.5 billion.
TVBR observation: It isn't over yet, not by a long shot. Remember, as of Sunday, the average person has completed 35.6% of their holiday shopping, slightly less than a year ago (36.8%). Only one in 13 consumers has finished their holiday shopping. Local Account Execs should bring these numbers in hand and recommend to clients that shopping malls/mall merchant associations do some additional advertising and promotions to drive shopper traffic.
What and where they're buying
 Consumers were shopping for a variety of merchandise this weekend. According to the survey, 49.2% purchased clothing or clothing accessories while 46.7% bought books, CDs, DVDs, videos and video games. The electronics category saw the largest year-over-year jump, with 36.7% of shoppers buying in that category, up from 31.2% a year ago. Retailers benefited from seasonably cool weather and heavy discounting this weekend. According to the survey (see chart), the majority of shoppers headed to discounters (60.7%), though department stores (47.0%) and specialty stores (41.2%) also saw strong traffic. As expected, online retailers also had a solid weekend, with nearly one in three consumers (27.4%) choosing to do some of their holiday shopping over the Internet. For 2004 comps on the survey, Discounter Stores were down 1.1%; Traditional Department Stores were up 2.7%; Specialty Retailers were up 0.7%; Catalog shopping was down 3.7% and Internet shopping was down 1.9%.
| See chart -- 2005 vs. 2004 tab |
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 20 Television stations For Sale
No one should be complaining today about the lack of TV station inventory for sale. We count no less than 20 stations - - big four network affiliates all - - which are being publicly shopped. Liberty Corporation shareholders are set to vote next week (12/6) on Raycom's 987 million bucks bid to buy their company. But Raycom has already hung "for sale" signs on two of the 14 stations it's acquiring in that deal - - plus 10 others that it's decided to prune from its TV group tree. Raycom has to divest in four markets where both it and Liberty own stations, since none is large enough to qualify for a duopoly under the current ownership rules, but Raycom went farther and announced plans to part with eight others to remove some stations that don't really fit in its portfolio. "The sale of these properties, which either duplicate existing market holdings or lie outside our core geographies, will allow us to strategically reshape our holdings and provide the resources to reinvest in expanding our reach within priority markets," said Raycom President and CEO Paul McTear. Belmoro Corporate Advisors and Wachovia Securities are handling financial advisor chores. What else is for sale? Well, there are still three stations to go from the Emmis Television auction in Orlando, New Orleans and Honolulu. In addition, Nexstar Broadcasting CEO Perry Sook got a bit more specific in his Q3 conference call about his plans to pare the company's portfolio. He told analysts that the company is shopping five stations in four markets. A dozen from Raycom, three from Emmis and five from Nexstar - - that's 20 full-power, big four network affiliates being publicly shopped. So, if you're in the market for TV stations, it appears there is now quite a bit of inventory to look at.
TVBR observation: Suddenly, after several slow years of station trading, TV is hot. The early stages of the Emmis auction brought strong prices, perhaps encouraging others to think about pulling the trigger on station sales. Meanwhile, all of the attention in radio is on two big deals. Susquehanna Radio went for a measly 13 times cash flow (perhaps 15 if you add back the tax advantages of the structure to the seller - - but still weak for big market stations). Now everyone is holding their breath to see if Disney goes through with a sale of ABC Radio. If that happens - - and it commands a stronger multiple - - perhaps other properties will come to market. But if Susquehanna is the benchmark for the current market, there won't be much reason for anyone to sell who doesn't absolutely have to.
TVBR observation
ABC won't be a record-breaker
If Disney CEO Bob Iger does decide (should happen soon) to divest ABC Radio, the deal won't come close to being the top radio deal of all time - - or even in the top three. The question is, will it do much better than break the top 10? Based on our recent analysis of the potential price tag (11/16/05 RBR #225), if ABC Radio brings no more than the dismal 13 times cash flow multiple of the Susquehanna Radio sale, the price tag would only be a bit over 3.3 billion bucks. That would rank it #9 in our list of the all time biggest radio deals, just behind Univision's 3.5 billion bucks acquisition of HBC three years ago. Could you have imagined three years ago ever being able to buy ABC Radio for less than four billion? How times have changed.
| Here's our list of the deals to beat: |
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 Ready to bid goodbye to 2005
There's still more than a month left of 2005, but from listening to the Q3 Wall Street conference calls, it seems to us that many broadcasters would be happy to jump right into 2006 and put Q4 of 2005 behind them as quickly as possible. Pretty much everyone complained that the national spot market is soft, so they all touted how great their stations are doing on pushing local sales - - some better than others. Even the Spanish radio and TV specialists were singing the blues, but at least they're mostly still looking at positive revenue for Q4 - - albeit smaller gains than they've grown accustomed to. For TV groups, in particular, 2006 holds the prospect of another hit of crack cocaine - - those increasingly addictive political ad revenues that give you a big high in even years, but leave you struggling against tough comps in odd-numbered years - - compounded by Olympic revenues hitting on the same every-other-year schedule for NBC affiliates. But political is what it is. The cycles is set, and even then no station has any control over whether or not it will be sitting in a "battleground" state or one that draws only routine political spending of each election cycle. The bigger problem, though, for both radio and TV, is the automotive sector. Radio One COO Mary Catherine Sneed summed it up best: "The number one sector is auto and it has really crashed and burned in the last couple of months," she said in the company's Q3 conference call. Whether radio or TV, the story is much the same - - auto advertising is soft. Detroit's big three pushed hard to clear out bloated inventories with their "employee pricing" programs, which moved steel, but didn't produce much in profits for them or their dealers. Now, GM has introduced the next round - - it's "Red Tag" incentive program, knocking 3K off the sticker price of many models. We await the response from other automakers.
TVBR observation: The obvious solution is to build other business categories and not be so dependent on automotive. Easier said than done, but it must be done. Stations have to develop new business categories on the local level and the reps (along with RAB and TVB) have to do it on the national level. Don't forget this lesson when the auto and political revenues start pouring in again - - unless you want to repeat this painful history.
Taking stock of minority broadcasting
Global Investment Research/Goldman, Sachs & Co. guru Mark D. Wienkes sees a lot to like in one minority-targeted broadcasting company and a return to reality at another. In the first category is Hispanic giant Univision. It stands to benefit from strong increases in Hispanic audience shares, which as yet have not been accompanied by equivalent increases in revenue. In fact, it says 20 years of underperformance has left a 1.5B revenue gap which can be exploited not only by Univision but also by competitors Entravision and Spanish Broadcasting System. In fact, the competition between the three is believed to be a factor which will help attract cash to the Hispanic sector. However, of the three, Univision is the only one expected to outperform. Entravision is expected to be in-line with peers, while SBS may under perform. In the African-American sector, Radio One is said to have suffered a 30% decline in pricing since spring, a development which Wienkes believes has brought its price in line with the market realities facing the company. He has therefore upgraded it to the in-line with peer category. He applauded the company's forays into cable and the Internet, and said they need continued nurturing to make sure that their promise pans out.
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Adbiz©
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 Christmas wishes abound
For our December RBR/TVBR Solutions magazine, we took a quick survey across the industry on what some execs would wish for from the Media Claus this year. We invited serious answers, humorous answers and a combination of both. Said David Verklin, Carat Americas CEO: "I would like reasonably-priced, minute-by minute ratings in my stocking; I would like an upbeat and positive magazine industry; I would like a concerted effort within the industry to embrace the 'Less is More' project in radio; I'd like to see 15% PVR penetration by mid-year next year; and I'd like to see Santa's sleigh pulled by six procurement officers."
Nickelodeon study: influencers key to marketing success
Nickelodeon's 2005 U.S. multicultural kids study unveiled last week regarding children aged 6-14 emphasized advertisers should focus marketing efforts on people kids see as influencers in music, the Internet, sports, movies, fashion and video games. The research, presented to Nickelodeon advertisers, also detailed that kids today are more ethnically diverse than the overall U.S. population; are watching more television; consuming more media overall; 28% own their own cell phones. In fact, mobile phones, laptop computers and video game consoles were at the top of kids' technology wish lists. Reuters reported Nickelodeon's study also showed kids with access to digital cable watch about 24 hours a week of television, compared with about 23 hours for kids with satellite television, 22 hours for kids with analog cable and 15 hours for kids with broadcast only.
Other highlights:
* 44% of kids think blacks know the most about the latest music
* 34% of kids think whites know the most about the latest movies
* 34% think blacks know the most about the coolest fashions
* 35% think whites know the most about computers and the Internet
* 37% think blacks know the most about sports
* 33% think whites know the most about video games.
 Digital display mat creates new advertising medium
The IntelliMat is a point of sale digital media wireless computer embedded in a thin mat made of a lightweight thermoplastic alloy. It has with four LCD screens, creating a 30-inch diagonal display with full multi-media capability. IntelliMat is 1.5cm thick and designed to be used on the floor in retail environments to deliver multimedia and TV-quality ads with the potential to interact with, reports Gizmag. The IntelliMat was developed by The Egg Factory, an organization dedicated to the creation and development of significant consumer and industrial innovations. The company creates transformational technology and global innovative solutions and then sells or licenses them to Fortune 500 companies, and private equity firms for their commercialization. IntelliMat targets retailers whose store's offer limited space and brand advertisers who are becoming increasingly dissatisfied with TV advertising. The IntelliMat builds on the success of static floor advertising first launched in the early 1990s. Because of its position on the floor, IntelliMat does not displace products on shelves - or force consumers to look at TVs hanging from the ceiling. It lies in the consumer's natural line of vision and easily provides information to influence buying decisions. IntelliMat delivers a personal rather than a broadcast communication because it is in an individual's "personal space."
Visa: Card traffic up 12% over last year
Call it a sign of increased debt-laden shopping, more online purchases or both, but Visa USA said retail spending on its credit and debit cards rose 12% on Black Friday Weekend, led by purchases of electronics and computers. Spending increased to 2.2 billion for the weekend, Visa USA said. Purchases of personal entertainment devices, including Xbox and iPod as well as computers, accounted for 19% of all retail sales volume. About 27 million credit and debit transactions were made on Friday, the company said. Retail spending on credit cards alone rose 12% to 1.38 billion. Spending on debit cards also climbed 12% to 817 million, Visa USA said.
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| Media Markets & MoneyTM |
Gray Television buys WNDU-TV
Gray Television and the University of Notre Dame announced Gray will acquire all of the capital stock of Michiana Telecasting Corporation, the University-owned company that operates WNDU-TV, for 85 million cash. Founded by Notre Dame in 1955, WNDU is the NBC affiliate for South Bend-Elkhart, IN. The 85 million will be used for student and academic initiatives, with most of the money to be invested in the University's endowment. Student internships at WNDU will continue. With the completions of the acquisition of WNDU-TV and the previously announced acquisition of WSAZ-TV Charleston-Huntington, WV (NBC), Gray will own 35 stations serving 30 markets. Kalil & Co. was exclusive broker for the Notre Dame.
 MTV goes deeper into the game game
Viacom's MTV Networks is expanding its ancillary services armada with the acquisition of GameTrailers LLC, which comes with an Internet gaming site called GameTrailers.com. Chief Digital Officer Jason Hirschhorn explained, "The acquisition of the GameTrailers business represents a strong and unique step forward for MTV Networks into the growing world of video-game culture by delivering high quality broadband video content to consumers, and it complements our broad efforts in video-games media across our brands. The quality and credibility of GameTrailers' work has been rewarded with respect among gamers and the industry alike and will take MTVN to new heights in this dynamic space." It joins a number of similar products in the MTV universe, including Video Games on MTV.com, MTV Overdrive and others. Terms of the acquisition were not disclosed.
TVBR observation: What broadcasters used to consider distractions from the healthy consumption of traditional radio and television programming are now turning into M&A targets. Kids won't be watching MTV if they're clicking away over at GameTrailers. Increasingly broadcasters are being forced to chase their audience over to these new places. The changes are coming fast and furious. Old business models are being mangled in the process. All we can say is now is NOT the time to blink.
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| Washington Beat |
Commerce Committee casting a wide net
For years the federal government and the courts have held that it's just and proper that broadcast speech is not as free as that enjoyed by private citizens and most other industries. It is instructive, then, that so many witnesses are being called before the Senate Commerce Committee tomorrow at its "Open Forum on Decency." Broadcasters will be there, to be sure - - television and even more particularly radio have borne the brunt of the official wrath directed against edgy, borderline, racy and otherwise suspect programming. That is because broadcast material comes into the home unbidden and unfiltered, accessible by any child capable of turning on a television set. The need to protect children from material they are not yet mature enough to understand and process appropriately is the basis for the restrictions. Other communications industries have largely been immune from a full frontal legislative and/or regulatory assault, generally on grounds that they are purchased consciously by members of the public. A citizen can avoid objectionable material by simply not subscribing to a given service. However, Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Stevens (R-AK) and many others on Capitol Hill have made no secret of their desire to put some restrictions on other media. In particular, basic cable services such as MTV and Comedy Central generally come from cable companies in tiered packages, and to an unsupervised child with a remote, accessing them is no different than accessing the regulated broadcast offerings. It is unclear how much headway legislators can make on this without risking court reversals. However, it is interesting that the cable, satellite, motion picture and even the cellular industries have been asked to testify. Hmmmmm.....
 FEC treats blogger as journalist
Journalists have the right to report on political topics. They further have the right to comment on political comments - - including opinions about specific candidates both positive and negative - - without those comments being considered a contribution to the campaign of the candidate who benefits from them. According to the Reporter Committee for Freedom of the Press, the Federal Election Commission has now officially extended that right to at least one blog. According to RCFP, "Fired Up!, a left-leaning Web log, is a press entity and so is exempt from the campaign finance laws just as major media organizations are, the Federal Election Commission unanimously agreed in an advisory opinion last week." The blog had to meet a two-pronged test to gain the journalist exemption. It had to be completely independent of any political party, committee or candidate, and had to demonstrate that it was performing "legitimate press functions." The ruling was hailed by Robert Niles of Online Journalism Review, who said, "Would be Web-publishers ought to be encouraged to add their voice to the public debate, and not be intimidated by the threat of FEC fines for illegal campaigning. Here's hoping today's ruling does that."
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| Programming |
ABC's "Alias" to end production in May
"Alias", the ABC espionage thriller starring Jennifer Garner, will end in May after a five year run. Ratings have tanked a bit since it moved to a tougher time slot on Thursdays this season against CBS's "Survivor: Guatemala". As well, producers had to script the real-life pregnancy of Garner into the storyline. No word, though, that the pregnancy played any role in the cancellation. In a statement, ABC executive producer Jeff Pinkner said the show would "rev up" for the remainder of the season as it heads for to completion.
 NBC didn't report parade accident
During its live coverage of the annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade, NBC didn't inform viewers that the giant M&Ms balloon had caught on a street lamp and injured two sisters. Instead, when the balloon was supposed to have crossed the finish line, announcers Katie Couric, Matt Lauer and Al Roker stuck close to their scripts and the network ran footage of the balloon from last year's parade. They told the audience they were seeing old footage, but there was no mention of the accident. An NBC spokeswoman told The AP that producers knew something had happened with the balloon but didn't know exactly what. The accident happened in Times Square, where the balloon's tethers became entangled on the head of a street lamp and knocked part of it off. Sarah and Mary Chamberlain, 11 and 26, were hit by the debris. Sarah needed nine stitches to her head, and Mary, who uses a wheelchair, suffered a bump on her forehead. Their father, Stephen Chamberlain, called it a freak accident and said the family didn't plan to sue, said The AP. The daughters were offered VIP seating from Macy's for next year's parade.
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| TVBR Stats |
Restocking fees influence consumers' retail store choices
The "official" start of the holiday shopping is the Friday after Thanksgiving (Black Friday) and this year consumers in the market for electronics will be checking return policies before buying according to the opinions of over 8,000 consumers in BIGresearch's monthly Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey (CIA).
| Read More... |
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| Engineering |
Dielectric facility to resume operations
Dielectric Communications announced that its Newburgh, IN tower-manufacturing facility will resume production in approximately two weeks. On 11/6, a tornado touched down near the facility, damaging the main plant and support buildings. The company has developed and is implementing a plan to make repairs to the existing facility, which will allow certain production to resume in a very short timeframe. The Newburgh office building, which is located a short distance from the plant, was not impacted by the storm. The office is fully staffed and available to work with customers to resolve any issues that may arise.
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| Monday Morning Makers & Shakers |
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Transactions: 10/17/05-10/21/05
The Nassau-to-Access.1 transaction hit the FCC in mid-October, spiking the week past the prior one without the benefit of a TV contract, and with barely any activity at all in the top 50 markets. The week included one deal for 14 noncommercial Auction No. 37 CPs worth a little over 1.3M.
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Total
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Total Deals
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9
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AMs
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7
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FMs
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22
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TVs
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0
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| Value |
90.685M
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| Complete Charts |
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Radio Transactions of the Week
Access.1 accesses two PA markets
| More... |
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TV Transactions of the Week
Out to lunch
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| Stock Talk |
Shoppers shop as traders watch
Long lines at stores for the "Black Friday" kickoff of the holiday shopping season hinted at good news for retailers this year, but Wall Street traders were hesitant to make major commitments on Friday. In fact, stock prices hardly moved in what is traditionally one of the slowest trading days of the year, although the slight movement was to the upside, continuing a month-long trend. The Dow Industrials rose 16 points, or 0.1%, to 10,932.
Most TV stocks were slightly higher. Spanish Broadcasting System was the best performer, up 3.4%. Sinclair gained 1.1%.
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| Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Friday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Acme
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ACME
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3.95
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+0.01
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Media General
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MEG
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51.19
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+0.09
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Belo
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BLC
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22.07
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-0.04
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Meredith
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MDP
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51.39
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-0.14
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Clear Channel
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CCU
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33.22
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+0.08
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News Corp.
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NWS
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15.80
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-0.07
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Disney
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DIS
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25.05
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+0.09
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Nexstar
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NXST
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4.40
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+0.01
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Emmis
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EMMS
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20.44
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+0.04
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NY Times
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NYT
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27.89
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-0.01
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Entravision
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EVC
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8.00
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+0.01
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Paxson
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PAX
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0.94
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+0.05
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Fisher
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FSCI
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45.89
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+0.04
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Saga Commun.
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SGA
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12.45
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-0.06
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Gannett
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GCI
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61.70
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+0.09
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SBS
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SBSA
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5.25
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+0.17
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Gen. Electric
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GE
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36.20
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+0.26
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Scripps
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SSP
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46.95
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-0.10
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Granite
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GBTVK
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0.24
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unch
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Sinclair
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SBGI
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9.09
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+0.10
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Gray
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GTN
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8.99
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-0.14
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Time Warner
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TWX
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18.33
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+0.01
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Gray, C1. A
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GTNa
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8.86
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unch
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Tribune
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TRB
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32.16
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-0.02
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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23.90
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+0.12
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Univision
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UVN
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29.49
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-0.41
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Jeff-Pilot
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JP
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55.60
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+0.24
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Viacom, Cl. A
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VIA
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34.37
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+0.21
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
|
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13.58
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+0.01
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Viacom, Cl. B
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VIAb
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34.30
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+0.20
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Liberty Corp
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LC
|
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46.52
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-0.02
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Wash. Post
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WPO
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731.50
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-6.20
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LIN TV
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TVL
|
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12.93
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+0.06
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Young
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YBTVA
|
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2.02
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-0.03 |
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McGraw-Hill
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MHP
|
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53.02
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+0.13
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-
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-
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- |
-
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- |
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to tvnews@rbr.com
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TV Media Moves
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WAVY-TV and WVBT-TV names Hostetter News Director
WAVY-TV and WVBT-TV have tapped Kathy Hostetter for News Director of WAVY (NBC) and WVBT (FOX) Norfolk, VA. She comes from KNTV, the NBC owned station in the San Francisco / Oakland / San Jose market where she served as Executive Producer with oversight of the 6:00 and 11:00 PM newscasts.
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Below the Fold
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Ad Biz
Nickelodeon study: Influencers key to marketing success
Kids aged 6-14 focus marketing efforts in music, the Internet, sports and video games....
Media Markets & Money
Gray Television buys WNDU-TV
From the University of Notre Dame...
Rating & Research
More fingers on the
holiday shopper pulse
Hard to say if in broadcast terms is good news or bad...
Shakers & Makers
Radio
Access.1 accesses two PA markets
Television
Out to lunch
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Ratings & Research
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More fingers on the holiday shopper pulse
It's hard to say if in broadcast terms it's good news or bad, but a survey from IBM Business Consulting Services is predicting that over half of all holiday shoppers - - 55%, in fact - - have consumer electronics' on their shopping list. If they're spending on hi-def TV that'd be good. If it's on something that takes eyes and ears away from broadcast offerings, that'd be bad. IBM offered no specifics on what's to be bought, but said the trend is toward multifunctionality. "It's not just the device, but the game changing nature of combining new product technologies with accessories, services, and content to provide a simple but complete solution. A solution that changes the way the consumer lives his or her life," said IBM's George Bailey (whom we assume is having a seasonally appropriate Wonderful Life). Boston Consulting Group agrees that consumers will be splurging on luxury items, but that will be in context of "trading down" on other items. It expects over the next three months that 40% of consumers are going to tighten their belts, against only 23% increasing spending, a trend that will spill into holiday shopping. To make room in the budget for the splurges, BCG expects shoppers will select bargains in other categories. Clear Thinking Group, on the other hand, is looking for 4%-4.5% gains in holiday shopping over 2004 - - it says that would be a drop from last year's 5.3% gain but still a healthy increase. It actually seconds the both the motion on electronics and the motion on down-pricing, noting, "Consumer excitement about flat screen television sets and monitors, iPODs, MP3 players, digital cameras, video games, DVD players and lower prices on laptop computers will mean good news for discount retailers."
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More News Headlines
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Correction
In our story "Feingold goes after concert promo and payola" (11/21/05 RBR #228), we mentioned that Clear Channel was seeking a buyer for its concert unit. In fact, plans to spin off the unit are already well under way.
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RBR - Radio News
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Close encounter
in the other Albany
Eddie Esserman of Media Services Group has filled RBR in on yet another done deal for Clear Channel. It's closed on its 875K acquisition of WMRZ-FM Dawson GA, serving the Albany GA radio market. The seller was Staton Broadcasting. WJYZ-AM/WJIZ-FM Albany, WOBB-FM Tifton and WRAK-FM Bainbridge fill out the CCU local lineup. The group has already had its hands on the controls through an LMA.
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TVBR Radar 2005
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Television News you won't read any where else. TVBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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Viacom gives its split boards
some direction
Seven independent directors have been named to the boards of the soon-to-be divided Viacom Inc. Sumner Redstone says the company has no plans to buy anything just now, even though people are pitching proposals from all angles. The new companies are being seen as well-heeled start-ups ripe for expansion however, its possible there may actually be spin-offs. The tortoise/hare split puts the slow and steady radio and TV operations under CBS Corp. and Les Moonves, and there, smaller radio stations may be put on the block.
TVBR observation: Since Moonves only sees radio as a margin game look for the losers to be cut loose. Moonves is a TV guy and that is where his attention will be focused especially with moving content of programming into other areas for consumer consumption and purchase.
11/23/05 TVBR #230
TiVo to bring TV programming
to iPod, PSP
Testing a feature in the coming weeks to let some Series2 box subscribers transfer recorded television programming to Apple iPod digital music players or Sony's PlayStation portable (PSP) devices.
TVBR observation: Once again - Technology waits for no one.
11/18/05 TVBR #229
FCC smacks down Cable One
in Nexstar dispute
The battle between television group Nexstar and cable operators over carriage terms has made it to the halls of the FCC - - and the winner is Nexstar.
11/21/05 TVBR #228
DTV date set in pencil by full House
The House of Representatives passed its Energy and Commerce Committee's version of a DTV bill as part of an appropriations bill. It makes 12/31/08 the final day for analog broadcast television, and allocates 830M for set-top digital-to-analog converter boxes. TVBR observation: The Senate deadline actually makes more sense - - it stalls the deadline long enough to make sure that Washington is home.
11/21/05 TVBR #228
What now for VNU? Scuttled IMS merger; CEO hitting the road
Awakened the sleeping giants who own most of its stock, VNU the parent of AC Nielsen now has to prove to the shareholders that it can generate good returns and run its businesses well - - or sell them to someone who can.
TVBR observation: It's not that difficult to get listed on the NYSE, so VNU hardly needed a 7B acquisition to do so. The obvious play and one we've heard suggested more times than we can count is to buy Arbitron, already on the NYSE, which would cost only about 1.25-1.5 billion. That becomes especially attractive if Nielsen Media Research decides it does want to use Arbitron's Portable People Meter (PPM) for TV ratings. Not included in that list from VNU is anything about spin-offs - - something else that big VNU shareholders have been urging the company to consider. In a conference call with European analysts yesterday, van den Bergh insisted that VNU is not planning any divestitures. But then, he won't be involved in such decisions for much longer. Clearly, some of those big institutional investors don't think the publishing group at VNU fits with its main data collection and research businesses, so pressure is likely to continue for van den Bergh's successor to sell off the group, known titles include Adweek, Billboard, Mediaweek and The Hollywood Reporter. Don't rule out a sale of all of VNU to a private equity buyer, who would streamline the cumbersome VNU management structure, sell off unwanted assets like the publishing division, and pump up financial performance for an IPO or resale. Waiting for the other shoe to drop.
11/18/05 TVBR #227
Abernathy makes a date
with the door
Republican FCC Commissioner Kathleen Abernathy has sent her resignation to President George W. Bush, effective 12/9/05. Exiting with her will be her reliable Republican vote. TVBR observation: Sen. Commerce Committee Chair Ted Stevens (R-AK) sent out signals that he wanted to find a candidate an opportunity that remains open to him with Abernathy's announcement. Abernathy's full statement see
11/18/05 TVBR #227
Iger explains iPod thinking
Question about whether Disney might want to sell the ABC O&O TV stations as it focuses on content, rather than delivery mechanisms Iger: "We believe in the local television business," Rather than being just a delivery pipe, local TV news brands have real value. Asked to compare pricing per download to the revenue Disney gets from ad sales per viewer, in his view, iPod downloads of "Desperate Housewives" or other shows are "incremental consumption." Rather than cannibalizing the broadcast audience, it allows fans to catch-up with shows they weren't able to see at their regular broadcast time. Iger also noted that Disney would likely want higher payments for big screen downloads than the 99 cents being charged to view shows on tiny iPod screens. Iger was mum on the radio sale.
11/18/05 TVBR #227
Network ad sales plunged in Q3
BCFM) calculates that ad revenues for ABC, CBS & NBC combined were down 21.5% in Q3. Prime time was up modestly, but the big hit was a nearly 69% drop in sports revenues, due to the lack of the Olympics. Total net revenues were down 605 million in Q3 to 2.2 billion, compared to a year ago. TVBR observation: Reminds TVBR when asked back in January how TV is going to shape up in 06 and the reply was - Wait until Next Year. Guess TVBR forecast was correct without having an MBA. TA-DUM.
11/17/05 TVBR #226
Grin and Bear
Stearns it? Not likely
Still seeing choppy to stagnant waters ahead for the radio business. For starters, it expects that relatively robust December results will be needed to salvage Q4 comps to 2004, and in the end, it doesn't believe see any signs of a particularly robust holiday month. RBR observation: It seems the key in comparing 2005 to anticipated results in 2006 is the fact that radio will have gotten itself through the tough first year of LIM. 2005 to 2006 comps will be comparing apples to apples, or LIMs to LIMs, if you will. Political funds should be the icing on that cake.
11/18/05 TVBR #229
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