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Can you handle a 40% increase for PPM?
That's the best case scenario in what we're hearing that Arbitron is telling top groups about what it will cost to switch from diaries to ratings from Portable People Meters (PPM). As we reported yesterday (12/1/04 RBR #233), the increase in ratings costs could be as much as 65% if Nielsen doesn't embrace PPM for TV and cable ratings and radio has to go it alone. What would a 40% increase mean? By analyzing the latest annual reports of Arbitron, Clear Channel Communications and Viacom, RBR calculated that Clear Channel paid Arbitron about 57.4 million in 2003 and Viacom's Infinity Broadcasting paid about 27.3. In very rough terms, that works out to approximately 1.5% of radio revenues that each of the two largest radio companies paid Arbitron for ratings and other services. Arbitron's 2003 revenues of 273.5 million also work out to a little less than 1.5% of total US radio revenues of 19.6 billion, as reported by the RAB. So a 40% increase would mean that Clear Channel would be paying about 23 million more and Infinity 11 million more. Instead of paying about 1.5% of revenues for ratings, radio stations could expect to pay about 2.1%.

RBR observation: We're not surprised to hear that Arbitron boss Steve Morris got an extremely chilly reception from big radio group heads when he first laid out his 40-65% rate hike scenario a few days ago. That's a huge price hike to swallow. The big question yet to be answered is whether PPM is worth it. Will advertisers pay better rates for faster, more accurate, more detailed ratings data? If so, how much more will they pay? Accountability is what they're demanding - - but who is going to pay for it? As we've noted before, the party holding some important cards in this is Nielsen Media Research, which is still evaluating whether to enter into a joint venture with Arbitron to use PPM for TV and cable ratings. The 40% price hike, from Arbitron's best case scenario WITH Nielsen, could become a 65% price hike for PPM without Nielsen - - and that is going to be very difficult to sell to the radio industry.

Fox Latin America moving sales HQ to Mexico City
Fox Latin America Channels is moving its sales headquarters to Mexico City from Los Angeles as part of an effort to expand the programming distributor's reach in the region. The unit of News Corp.'s Fox Television Group is also opening new sales offices in Bogota, Columbia, Caracas, Venezuela and Santiago Chile. "We're preparing all our strategy and our structure toward offering more television channels," said Carlos Martinez, the company's newly named deputy managing director for Latin America. The first new channel, which will premier in Brazil in January, will target a male audience with content including extreme sports and action shows, he said. Martinez expects the Mexican pay-television market to generate about US$178 million in ad revenues this year, rising to between $267 million and $312 million in 2005. However, he said that cable piracy remains one of the biggest challenges for the industry. Legal subscriptions account for just 23% of all TV viewers in Mexico.

Cutting inventory and the effects--GM Talkback
Larry Wert,
Pres/Gm NBC's - WMAQ-TV,
Tom Bender,
GM Greater Media/Detroit,
Mike Mazursky,
GM 4M Communications
page 6

IF your were in Radio
When it Worked
page 8

Laying the Hits down -
Boom Boom Boom
Listen to past great air checks of
George Michael
WFIL-AM
Fred Winston's classic
NewYears Day Hangover Club &
Bob DeCarlo with Tommy Turntable
page 12


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PPM cost laid out...soon
Arbitron's Portable People Meter (PPM) is going to cost clients more than its diary-based radio ratings currently cost - - but if you're looking for more specific numbers, you're not going to get them - yet.
TVBR observation: Bottom line: Sources report that yes a meeting was held, believe on 11/16/04, and seven to nine group heads were in attendance. RBR will confirm before we name - names but you probably could assume who they are from our past reports on meetings of this nature. Since mum's the word the percentage of increase being tossed around is expected to be between 40% and 65% and the big but is depending on Nielsen's participation. Sources report these figures and Nielsen participation was met with a "Cool" reception. Now RBR is hearing 'Cool' is not the word but 'Frigged' 12/01/04 TVBR #233

Branding Honor Salute
RBR Observation-First
Close-up: "American Dreams" sponsorship included touching Ford Mustang film.
Ford sent consumers a heartfelt family message this holiday season with a special episode of NBC's hit drama "American Dreams." This is one great program with executive producer and radio pro Dick Clark. Just the technology of using Black & White footage of Clark, the real Bandstand and the script writing is excellent. If you did not view this episode then you missed one of the best events in TV this season. The biggest mark being missed is local radio and local NBC affiliates not working together to cross-market, promo and sell. The biggest mark being missed is local radio and local NBC affiliates not working together to cross-market, promo and sell but it is never to late this is the beginning of the new marketing approach of content into programming. Called get More viewers and More impact for the advertising dollar. Less stop sets with More content and a lasting impression impact.
11/24/04 RBR #230

RBR Observation-First
More from Ford's Rich Stoddart on "American Dreams" Mustang film
Q: What were Ford dealers' reactions after seeing this clip before it aired?
How might they capitalize on this on a local level? A: 'Well, I think the only way I can characterize the dealers' responses was 'speechless.' I think the reaction that most people had, and certainly the reaction I had--and I've seen this thing multiple times-actually, the first time the agency came in and presented the script to me, I melted. I don't know how you experience that concept without having an emotional reaction, and I have been unable to make it through a presentation or the film itself yet without a tear in my eye. And so, this was the dealer reaction-there was not a dry eye in the house. And that was the senior leadership of our dealer council who comes in on a quarterly basis to just review the state of the business and provide input on a number of issues. So they actually weren't brought in for that purpose, it just happened to be ready, so it was kind of a surprise for them.
11/30/04 RBR #232

RBR Observation-First
JWT/Detroit Co-President Tom Cordner speaks on "American Dreams"/Mustang film
Q: Tell us a bit about how JWT worked with Ford and "American Dreams" in getting this done. A: "We have a great relationship with Ford, whereby they encourage us to look for properties where we can have a dominant presence, where we can run our commercials, sometimes influence the content of a show (which we did) and pursue the opportunity of non-traditional media, which that film was, to reach consumers in a powerful way. Mostly, consumers are very jaded about advertising. They don't sit in front of a television waiting for the next commercial to come on-nobody does that. We're these unwelcomed guests in people's homes, and Ford recognizes that. And to find non-traditional ways to have them experience the Ford brand and some values that may be associated with that is an enormous opportunity-in a way that isn't in a traditional ad format. Full interview inside. 12/01/04 RBR #233

:60s vs. :30s: The pros and cons of "shortening the standard" - - Part 4
As a key element of its "Less is More" initiative, Clear Channel Radio is trying to migrate advertisers from 60-second spots to 30s. Is it fair play to ask radio advertisers to pay more money for less than what they've been getting in :60s? Will they pay? 12/01/04 TVBR #233

Could CBS lure away
Russert or Lauer? Get Real
Two of the top names on the "wish list" at CBS to succeed Dan Rather in the anchor chair aren't at CBS at all - - they're at NBC. According to Newsweek, executives of the Eye net would love to lure away "Meet the Press" host Tim Russert or "Today" host Matt Lauer. Both, however, are in long-term contracts with NBC, so such a move is not likely to happen. So the focus is back on the most likely in-house candidates, John Roberts and Scott Pelley.
TVBR observation: First network news as we know it today is just about DOA. Tom Brokaw (NBC) the smartest and the classiest of the current network three including Peter Jennings (ABC) and Rather (CBS) picked his time and place. The other two just don't know when to get out. Rather is pushed and Jennings thinks he is the Big Daug. Wrong - NBC has a shot to reformat with Brian Williams to fit a younger demo - it can be done but we will not tell you now - call us. As for Russert or Lauer they are too smart and if they think differently lets remind everyone with this person - Bryant Gumbel who after 15 years with NBC as anchor of the Today Show and was the Big Daug of mornings went to greener pastures and guess what happened? Gumbel Who? 11/30/04 TVBR #232

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