Now many that know Cathy and me personally, know we go the distance. This request for your assistance is from two people who have a vehicle of RBR & TVBR and are trying to help and bring a Merry Christmas to 40 lonely soldiers in a far away place and seeing the worst of war. Will you help us to help the medics & soldiers during this Holiday Season?

Ship to:
SFC Melick.
325th Field Hospital
APO AE 09355

Thank you and Merry Christmas
Jim & Cathy Carnegie

We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments to tvnews@rbr.com

New regime at Gemstar
Within the Rupert Murdoch empire, Rich Battista has been plucked from Exec. VP of Business Development and Strategy at Fox Entertainment to become CEO of Gemstar-TV Guide International, where Jeff Shell has resigned. If you're keeping track, that's three CEOS in three years at Gemstar.

GE raises its dividend

November grew double digits
at Journal

Saga EVP Steve Goldstein warns radio
to embrace change at Arbitron fly-in
Saga EVP and Arbitron Radio Advisory Council member Steve Goldstein discussed how radio needs to jump in with all of these other companies and concerns (agencies and so forth)-accept we need to change and get it done-at Arbitron's annual consultants Fly-In last week: "My real point was that in the past 10 years that we've had pretty seismic changes in our business, but not just our business-other elements in the media business as well. And I mentioned some of them. For example, the DVD business is now bigger than the movie business. The movie biz is a 9.5 billion business, but DVDs are a 16.3 billion dollar business. Clearly, in the last 10 years a seismic change. And if you recall, the movie companies were frightened to death of video. And now, here it is and it has changed their business... "

TVBR observation: One more time again from the top - Irwin Gottlieb, CEO of Group M states to all: "If you are afraid of change this might be a good time to leave the business. If you choose to hang on and pursue opportunity buckle up because it's going to be a terrific ride." More in the January Radio & Television Business Report - The Real Business Magazine - where the rubber meets the road and tells it like it is. Contact April McLynn 703 492-8191 to mail you a copy. Snooze you lose in '05.
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History 101 repeats itself, learn from this
You have to go back a bit to find another era in radio quite like the one we've been in for the past few years, but Wachovia Securities analyst Jim Boyle sees similarities with the early 1950s. Boyle, who was himself in diapers then, has been doing some research on the era. "The last time the radio sector suffered five consecutive sub-par years was in 1951 through 1955. A new ad-supported media, Broadcast TV, had severely hit radio's audience and revenues. A new technology enabled longer-playing portable music, a threat to some of radio's programs. The geopolitical picture was still settling down from the Korean War. The economy had seen two lackluster years during the 1949-1954 span," Boyle notes. Sound familiar? But then the good news: "Yet, from 1956-60, the buffeted sector returned to near normal 5% revenue growth." Boyle isn't suggesting that investors buy radio stocks and hold on for the inevitable upturn. "It could be a long wait," he says. He's still touting a couple of niche players as the best bets, and only for long-term investors - - Univision and Radio One, which he says should substantially outperform their general market peers in the medium to long term.

Publisher note: History is good to learn where we come from so we know where to go in the future. Young CEO's lesson 101 since many were not even born in 1950 no less in the radio business. Hell, I was only age one in 1950 so a tip of the history research hat to Jim Boyle. Thanks.

Cutting inventory and the effects--GM Talkback
Larry Wert,
Pres/Gm NBC's - WMAQ-TV,
Tom Bender,
GM Greater Media/Detroit,
Mike Mazursky,
GM 4M Communications
page 6

IF your were in Radio
When it Worked
page 8

Laying the Hits down -
Boom Boom Boom
Listen to past great air checks of
George Michael
WFIL-AM
Fred Winston's classic
NewYears Day Hangover Club &
Bob DeCarlo with Tommy Turntable
page 12


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2005: CFOs put the bull in the barn
Finding are more interesting than from CEO's or COO's because these CFO know where the money is and coming from. They have the trends and they are less bullish about the economy in 2005. Widespread concern - rising health care, federal budget deficit, rising energy costs and interest rates. Worries of domestic terrorism have a dampening effect on overall business results. A quarter ago, CFOs were looking for a 3.1% increase in hiring for '05 but that number has dwindled into fractional territory, to 0.8%. Outsourcing is expected to increase. Cap-ex is also expected to be flat. The 3.8% growth rate is said to represent only replacement level spending. And on an ominous note for readers of TVBR, expectations for advertising expenditure have been more than halved, down to only a 2.3% increase for the year. CFOs also lowball economic gains compared to Wall Street. They are looking for a 2.8% increase in GDP, compared to a 3.3% consensus forecast on The Street. Despite all this, the CFOs are expecting their own companies to fare OK, with an expected earnings increase of 11%. TVBR observation: Want the true then go where the money is not just More talk from CEO's or COO's. The CFO is the one that is truly in control of operations today and we all know it. Now, CFO's get out from the behind your numbers at get to the front lines where the real fighting is going on. Go to key events besides banker crap. Attend the RAB, TVB, 4A's conferences and go where the real street action is. 12/10/04 TVBR #240

Cable penetration hits 10-year low; satellite continue surge
More American TV households are receiving cable programming via an alternate delivery system (ADS/satellite) than ever before while wired cable lost 300,000 subscribers and saw its penetration percentage hit a 10-year low, according to a TVB analysis of Nielsen Media Research data for November 2004.
TVBR observation: If you track or pace the process then click and print the charts. We do to follow the trend. Worth tacking in your programming and sales department and put in your media kits. Again we recommend print out the charts to develop your own pacing trends. Do not rely on any trade association to do your job. 12/10/04 TVBR #240

Arbitron claims PPM recruiting success in Houston
Over 52% of the households targeted for the first wave of PPM recruitment agreed to participate. The company says fault rates are also low. Response levels had been a big concern during the initial PPM test in Philadelphia, but Arbitron thinks it's got the problem licked. Look for the test to start churning out data come July. TVBR observation: This is why you test. Another improvement in the Houston test will be a modification to the PPM device that will differentiate in-home and out-of-home media use, based on proximity to the docking/recharging unit. TV guys, who've never had out-of-home viewing measured by Nielsen, are salivating over that. But cost remains a big concern for many radio companies, along with how PPM affects morning drive ratings. You must read and print out these charts. We like this point - TV is salivating so Nielsen step-in with the Kleenex and wipe off the drool.
12/09/04 TVBR #239

Belo, More warnings on 2005
TV groups are setting the bar low with no Olympics or political revenues to speak of next year. Belo will have no Olympics revenue in 2005 versus almost $10 million in 2004. The Super Bowl will be on Fox, rather than one of the three networks where Belo's television station affiliations are concentrated.
TVBR observation: Look for Fox to improve next year with new upper chief in Jack Abernethy. TV must cross market with local Radio or lose. 12/09/04 TVBR #239

Sook thinks JSAs are safe
Despite the uncertainty over what will happen with the FCC's media ownership rules, Nexstar Broadcasting Group CEO Perry Sook points out that TV joint sales agreements (JSA) should still be allowed. hat's important for Nexstar, which has virtual duopolies in 16 markets through JSAs with stations owned by Mission Broadcasting. Sook noted that all of the comments filed with the FCC on the subject of TV JSAs were in favor of continuing to allow JSAs, rather than counting JSA'd stations against in-market ownership limits, as in radio.
12/09/04 TVBR #239

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