Grubbs on this year's upfront
On speculating on the broadcast upfront, PHD CEO Steve Grubbs thinks the numbers will be very close to last year's 9.3B. "I think if there is an increase in revenue for the networks, it will be a minimal increase. But who knows, we're still three weeks out. A lot of budgets haven't been firmed up yet. Now last year at this point in time, I probably would have said the same thing, but there was a little more strength to the scatter market last year, so we sensed there might be potentially a stronger marketplace. But within the last week or two, as budgets firmed up, a whole slew of dollars just flooded in from, not only our clients, but other people's clients. And that's what really surprised the market. I don't think we'll see that this year." And while we hear everyone in attendance at the recent Network Upfront Discussion Group (4/9 TVBR Daily Epaper #85) agreed not to talk to the press about the session that addressed upfront issues and problems, Grubbs wasn't there. He gives TVBR his quick take on the process for the broadcast upfront: "I think it's ludicrous that $9B is essentially laid down within about a 72-hour time frame. I don't know that that's in anyone's best interest to do things that way. You want to have time to weigh your options and to do thorough comparisons when you're under a tight time frame. And there's concern that prices may increase. I'm not sure that's the best way for us to be operating."

Automakers threatening to cut TV ad spending
As the official start of the TV upfront nears (5/17), automakers are publicly threatening to cut or pull TV spend if rates start resembling last year's double-digit increases. Bill Burton, former head of Eastman Radio and current President of the Detroit Radio Advertising Group (DRAG), meets and greets with most of the motor city auto execs on a daily basis. He tells RBR/TVBR he's also hearing complaints about audience numbers.
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Chemistri Chairman leaves for DaimlerChrysler
Gary Topolewski is resigning his post as Chairman and Chief Creative Officer at Chemistri (the Leo Burnett agency created for GM's Cadillac and Pontiac), for DaimlerChrysler's agency - - BBDO Detroit. Topolewski, 47, will join the Omnicom agency as co-chief creative officer where he will first focus on the Chrysler brand, as well as campaigns for Jeep and Dodge. The defection could throw a wrench into some successful GM marketing efforts, including a widely-acclaimed Cadillac campaign that revived the classic brand and plans for new Pontiac models. Topolewski's move follows news last week that Chemistri CEO Patrick Sherwood would leave the agency to pursue other ventures. Leo Burnett Worldwide President Tom Bernardin told Reuters the agency was "looking carefully at the circumstances surrounding (Topolewski's) recruitment at BBDO," without elaborating. He said Topolewski agreed to stay on during a transition period and that a search would begin for a new creative leader.

TV stocks were also little changed. Sinclair had the biggest change, moving up 3.2%. NexStar was down 2.6%. Among companies who reported earnings on Tuesday, Clear Channel slipped 0.6%, Liberty Corp. gained 0.2% and Saga gained 0.5%.

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Saga chief says RADIO ad rates are firming
"We're far from really out of the woods," Saga CEO Ed Christian warned analysts yesterday in his Q1 conference call. But he did say that pacings have improved and radio rates are firming in most markets. The problem right now, he said, is that national ad sales are soft, so the growth is coming from local. For the top 100 markets, Christian said national sales were down 2% for the first quarter. "Year to date, New York is pacing off 16%, which is pretty huge," he noted. Saga isn't in New York, but for its largest markets, Christian noted that national ad sales were down 20.7% in Columbus, OH for Q1 and 18.5% in Milwaukee. Despite those national troubles, Saga is predicting another up quarter for Q2, telling Wall Street that pacings are currently 6-8% ahead of last year. Having complained in the past about competitors cutting rates, Christian said that rates are firming up in all of Saga's markets except for Columbus.

Complimentary Report
P&G's Jim Stengel talks reality of today's advertising world.
Accountability Part II:
They are at it again.
Better check your Main Studio & Public File... This report has what you need to know.

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Lowry Mays undergoes
emergency surgery
Clear Channel CEO Chairman and CEO Lowry Mays underwent emergency surgery last Friday,4/30, in San Antonio and is recovering well. CCU email states the situation and condition, The doctors found some swelling of his brain caused by localized bleeding and a small blood clot. He underwent surgery Friday afternoon to relieve pressure caused by the swelling. The surgery was successful. 05/04/04 TVBR #87

Measuring the Media Moguls - Belo: Robert Decherd, Chairman & CEO
Got a much smaller paycheck last year, since his bonus dropped dramatically from 2002. More importantly, though, the company's stock shot up by nearly a third - - and Decherd owns lots of stock in the family company. Decherd was paid a salary of $855,000 in 2003 and $328,312 via a company savings plan. But his bonus dropped to $45,800 from $1,282,500 the previous year. The dropped his total paycheck by 48.6% to $1,229,112.
05/04/04 TVBR #87

Cable readies for best
upfront ever - - Part II
CAB Last year, cable took in about $5.4B in upfront spending. Some say this year's could hit $6.4B. Cunningham says fragmentation is probably the single worst-applied word in understanding media marketing. "The more insights you have about your target's passions - - the behaviors, their affinities - - then multichannel is not fragmentation. It's not a problem. It's an opportunity - - it's a huge opportunity."
05/04/04 TVBR #87

TVBR Exclusive
Broadcasting & Cable (B&C) Exclusive Is Exclusively Wrong!
The words from Citadel CEO/NAB Joint Board Chairman Phil Lombardo on the B&C report this morning, 5/3, with the headline: Fritts Survives, Can the NAB? TVBR Publisher Jim Carnegie spoke with Lombardo on the record, "Bill McConnell wrote that article - he never talked to me." TV Board Chairman Michael Fiorile, "Eddie Fritts' future is not in doubt." Cox Television President and Vice Chair Andy Fisher who simply stated on the record, "The B&C article is interesting but simply not complete." TVBR observation: This show is not over and RBR has stated before - let the system work. TVBR states for the record and to our colleagues in the press - We at RBR & TVBR live in a glass house and - we Do throw stones. 05/03/04 TVBR #86

Measuring the Media Moguls -ACME: Jamie Kellner,
Chairman & CEO
This series will compare the stock performance of public radio companies in 2003 to the compensation of each company's CEO. We begin today with ACME. With ACME Communications still a relatively young company, which only recently turned cash-flow positive, Chairman & CEO Jamie Kellner and President & COO Doug Gealy have their fortunes tied to future stock gains and have forgone salary increases for several years. 05/03/04 TVBR #86

McCain steps back
at Commerce Committee
We have been able to confirm that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) will be taking a less visible role with the Senate Commerce Committee. He will remain a member, but will turn the chair (or ranking member status on the off chance Republicans lose control of the Senate) over to fellow Republican Ted Stevens (R-AK). 05/03/04 TVBR #86

Cable readies for best
upfront ever-Part I
The Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau (CAB), while agreeing this is going to be one hot upfront for cable, isn't giving out any specific predictions or numbers. Instead, CAB CEO Sean Cunningham tells RBR they can talk in general about what they anticipate the level of demand will be for cable advertising. TVBR observation: Viacom President Mel Karmazin, while admitting that cable will be "more robust" than broadcast in the upfront this year, he stressed that broadcast is still the best place to reach the "most number of people at the same time." Cable is the biggest victim of fragmentation, because of more and more nets in the marketplace. This is the same man that once said the crown jewel of his media empire is his cable nets. This is also what is so interesting about the ownership of this business. People like Mel have to keep juggling their different mediums for and against each other. 05/03/04 TVBR #86

Chapman wants self-policing
to curb indecency
As he prepares to co-chair the NAB's Responsible Broadcasting Task Force with David Kennedy and Gary Chapman is touting self-restraint as the best course for the industry to pursue. He's worried that broadcasters could face some onerous new laws if Congress gets involved. TVBR observation: Self-policing is a good thing, but from what we're hearing on Capitol Hill, it's not going to rein in lawmakers who are making political hay out of the indecency issue. And since so many big broadcasters have left the NAB, what good is a code if it doesn't cover many of the industry's biggest players? 04/30/04 TVBR #85