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Volume 24, Issue 98, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
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Friday Morning May 18th, 2007
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TV News ®
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 Nexstar on the auction block
After winning the retrans battle and clawing back out of penny stock hell, Nexstar Broadcasting Group CEO Perry Sook and his board have retained Goldman Sachs to review strategic alternatives, including a sale of the company. Nexstar said there was no assurance that any transaction would occur and it said the company would have no further comment on the matter until the process is completed. Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller quickly upgraded the stock to Outperform. He called it a 180-degree turn for the company, which he thinks was the "underbidder" for the Clear Channel TV group at 1.1 billion (it went for 1.2 billion). So, it appears that Sook's main investor, ABRY Partners, decided it was time to take its chips off the table. "We believe ABRY Partners began its investment in Nexstar in 1996 and believe that its 'basis' is around 12.50 a share. ABRY also owns about 55% to 60% of the 'economics' of the company. Obviously, given recent valuations of TV properties, ABRY decided to leave rather than consolidate," Miller said in his analysis. He sees the take-out value of Nexstar at 15-20 bucks per share, with a blended 2007-2008 EBITDA multiple of 11.75-13.25 implied.
TVBR observation: Private equity rules these days, so we will be shocked if the 49 stations that Nexstar owns or has virtual duopolies with end up with another public company. Likely buyers include Oak Hill's Local TV LLC, which bought the New York Times TV group, and Providence Equity Partners, which bought the Clear Channel TV group, but there are lots of other equity players chasing TV deals. Nexstar offers potential bidders a solid platform of network affiliate stations with strong positions in medium and smaller markets. Nexstar's stock bottomed out below four bucks last October. But as revenues from retransmission consent became real, not just a promise, the stock began a steady climb which took it out of penny stock status and recently into double digits.
NY Times TV legacy ends with a down month
The New York Times Company reported that April ad revenues from its continuing operations were down 3.6% to 196 million and that total company revenues declined 2.2% to 303 million. That is not including the TV group, which was counted as a discontinued operation and the sale closed on May 7th. So, with the April report we also got our last look at the New York Times TV group, where revenues were down 4.3% to 13.8 million. For the News Media division, which includes the newspapers, radio and their related websites, classified plunged 10.9%, retail fell 4.7% and national was off 1.2%. Ad revenues for the New York Times Media Group, anchored by the flagship daily, fell 3.8%, while the New England Media Group, anchored by the Boston Globe, fell 3.3%. Ad revenues for its group of regional newspapers fell 9.1%. One bright spot was Internet ad revenues for the media properties, which rose 15.6%. About.com, which is its own division, saw ad revenues rise 26.6% to 8.9 million.
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 Fox shut out of Democratic
debate schedule
CNN, ABC, NBC/MSNBC, CBS and even YouTube/Google will all get a piece of the officially-sanctioned Democratic National Committee primary debate schedule. It should come as no surprise that the notable media exception on the list is Fox News Channel. The local Democratic party organization in Nevada and the Congressional Black Caucus (CBC) each tried to schedule debates for Democratic presidential candidates, only to see them tripping over one another to boycott the events. One of the excuses used was the existence of the six officially sanctioned events. DNC Chairman Howard Dean appeared on Comedy Central's Colbert Report Wednesday night (5/16/08) and flat out said there was no reason for the Democrats to hold a debate on a propaganda outlet. Here are the six scheduled events: 6/23/07: YouTube/Google & CNN, Charleston SC; 8/19/07: ABC, Des Moines IA; 9/26/07: NBC/MSNBC, Hanover NH; 10/30/07: NBC/MSNBC, Philadelphia PA; 11/15/07: CNN, Las Vegas NV; and 12/10/07: CBS, Los Angeles CA.
TVBR observation: Some have accused the Democrats of missing out on an opportunity to market themselves to an audience that may otherwise miss out on the message entirely, including the CBC and left-wing candidate Dennis Kucinich (D-OH). We tend to disagree. The people who are interested in the debates will seek them out no matter where they are. This is a matter between the Democratic leadership and Fox News Channel, and it seems highly doubtful there will be any change in the situation during this election cycle.
Are food advertisers shifting to alternative media?
A pair of watchdogs does not seem overly impressed with junk food manufacturer's efforts to rein in their own advertising aimed at children on broadcast media. That's because it seems that the effort has simply been redirected toward the internet, cell phones and other new media. The Berkeley Media Studies Group and the Center for Digital Democracy have a new report out, "Interactive Food & Beverage Marketing: Targeting Children and Youth in the Digital Age," that provides facts and figures. They claim much of this occurs "under the radar of parents." It notes a McDonald's campaign which text-messaged McFlurry coupons to young cell phone users; a "Coke Rewards Program" which places a special code on products sending youngsters to a website where they can get items like ringtones, while being profiled by Coca Cola; and campaigns by fast food companies place on YouTube and MySpace. Lori Dorfman of BMSG said, "It appears that the food and beverage industry is making minimal changes with one hand but greatly expanding its marketing to children with the other. It's not fair to families when food companies use technology to market to children out of earshot of parents." They watchdogs sent their 98-pager to the Federal Trade Commission and requested a full investigation of digital food and beverage marketing aimed at children.
TVBR observation: It's like a limp balloon - you squeeze one end and the air simply shifts over to the other side. Slow down the broadcast end and the marketing cash won't disappear, it will simply show up somewhere else. And this stuff definitely makes it through to our kids. Just as one example, although we rarely go to fast food restaurants, our children almost always seem to know what the current toy theme is at all of them. There are two operatives in that last statement: The fast food message is getting out one way or another, and our kids still don't get very much fast food, which begs the question where does the responsibility of the industry to restrict the message end and the responsibility of the parent to restrict access to the product begin? It's another gray area, and you can expect Washington to work it to death this summer.
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Ad Business Report TM
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 Fox announces 2007-2008 Primetime slate
Peter Liguori, President, Entertainment, Fox Broadcasting Company (pictured), yesterday unveiled the FOX primetime schedule for the 2007-2008 television season. The new dramas premiering this fall are K-Ville (20th Century Fox Television), starring Anthony Anderson and Cole Hauser as police officers in post-Katrina New Orleans; and New Amsterdam (Regency Television), the first American television project from Oscar-nominated director/producer Lasse Hallstrm, featuring newcomer Nikolaj Coster Waldau as a New York City homicide detective. The new comedy slated for fall is Back to You (20th Century Fox Television), from executive producers Steven Levitan and Christopher Lloyd. Set at a TV news station in Pittsburgh, it stars Emmy Award winners Patricia Heaton and Kelsey Grammer and is directed by James Burrows. The new unscripted series from the producers of Idol is The Search for the Next Great American band (working title), which will do for undiscovered groups what Idol has done for singers. Also with a musical theme, Nashville (working title) is an unscripted docu-soap chronicling a group of ambitious young people trying to make their mark on the music industry and Nashville society. And in Kitchen Nightmares, mercurial master chef Gordon Ramsay of Hell's Kitchen fame attempts to turn around floundering restaurants in less than a week.
| See primetime schedule here |
The CW launches second season with six new series
The CW yesterday unveiled the schedule for its 2007-2008 season at Madison Square Garden before more than 3,000 advertisers, affiliates and national media. The announcement was made by Dawn Ostroff, The CW President of Entertainment. On Wednesday nights, the network's top-rated series, America's Next Top Model, showed double-digit growth last season and was the number one show in the timeslot with women 18-34. It will return in its successful 8:00-9:00 p.m. slot, followed by the premiere of the new drama Gossip Girl from 9:00-10:00 p.m. The show is based on the best-selling young-adult book series of the same name. The show focuses on the struggle for social supremacy among teens from both sides of the tracks in a posh Manhattan prep school. Sundays will kick off the 7:00-8:00 p.m. hour with two new reality shows. At 7:00 p.m., "CW Now" will premiere as a fast-paced mix of celebrity gossip and current fashion and lifestyle trends. Advertisers can participate by incorporating their brand into the fabric of the show, expanding on the network's success last season with content wraps.
| See The CW's 2007-2008 primetime schedule here |
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| Media Business Report TM |
 Anheuser-Busch combats
underage drinking
Self-regulation is a must for adult-only products and services, and beer maker Anheuser-Busch is participating in a campaign to keep its products, and those of its competitors, out of the hands of teenagers, particularly as the prom and graduation season kicks off. Joining A-B are The Association of Junior Leagues International, The International Association of Fire Chiefs and the National Fatherhood Initiative. An advertising campaign is aimed at parents, reminding them that while it may be okay to spend money on prom accessories and clothes, or to lengthen curfews, it is not okay to provide alcohol to teens on these or other special occasions. The ad flight will include print, television, radio, point of purchase and Internet messages.
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| Washington Media Business Report TM |
If it's broke the broker isn't responsible
There is no way the FCC is going to let a licensee shimmy out of an operational fine in an LMA situation. That's the bottom line in the case of Jerry Russell's KWRD-AM Henderson TX. It was nailed for 8K on an EAS violation, and Russell tried to get out of the fine on grounds that the station was being operated by someone else in an LMA, and failed to inform him of the problem. That didn't fly with the FCC. Russell came back, late, with further arguments that A) the equipment was operational when he turned over the station to the time-broker; and B) he had hired an individual to monitor the station, who thereupon failed to inform him of the equipment's deterioration. The FCC first noted that the late filing was grounds all by itself for denying the appeal, but stated for the record that A) it was irrelevant if the equipment ever worked if it wasn't working when the FCC came to inspect it; and B) it is still the licensee's responsibility to ensure that his station is in compliance with all rules and regulations: "...licensees... are responsible for the acts and omissions of employees or independent contractors." Russell also failed to document any financial hardship caused by the fine. The fine stands.
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| Entertainment Media Business Report TM |
 BET books "the 5ive"
to keep up on what's hot
Are you confused trying to keep track of what's hot and what's not? BET has set June 4th for the debut of "the 5ive," a new interactive series hosted by Alesha Renee to keep viewers up to date on the latest trends in pop culture. She will scope out scorching, exclusive and evasive happenings for viewers and deliver the top 5 picks three times a week. Viewers will be invited to go online to participate in the show. They will be able to vote for their favorite picks of the day, select songs to appear in the daily video remix; upload home videos; view past episodes and more. "the 5ive" will air every Monday, Tuesday and Friday at 7:30 pm ET/PT on BET.
NBC Uni sets "Evan Almighty" roadblock
Tune in to any of the 10 NBC Universal networks tomorrow night at 8:58 pm and you will see exactly the same thing - an exclusive first look at the trailer for the upcoming Universal Pictures comedy "Evan Almighty." On NBC, the movie promo follows the season finale of "The Office," starring Steve Carell. And guess what - he is also the star of "Evan Almighty." The other nine networks involved in the video roadblock are MSNBC, SciFi, Bravo, USA, Universal HD, CNBC, Mun2, Chiller and Sleuth.
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| Internet Media Business Report TM |
Study: Males 18-24 more likely to
download podcasts via iTunes
comScore released the results of a study profiling the iTunes podcasting audience. The study, sponsored by mobile advertising enabler Ad Infuse, focused on those users who downloaded podcasts via iTunes in October 2006. An analysis of the iTunes podcasting audience revealed that males represented a significantly larger share (63%) of the audience than did females (37%). In addition, 18-24 year olds represented a substantial share of the audience (29%) and were more than twice as likely as the average Internet user to download podcasts. People between the ages of 35-54 represented about half of the podcasting audience and were also more likely than average to download podcasts. "The comScore study reveals significant advertising opportunities among several consumer segments," said Nick Tabbal, comScore SVP/media and entertainment solutions. "While the conventional wisdom says that only young, tech-savvy consumers are downloading and listening to podcasts, there is also a sizable market among 35-54 year olds, indicating that the audience is broader than previously thought." comScore also examined the household income and education levels of the iTunes podcasting audience, revealing that consumption of podcasts increased with both income and education. In particular, those individuals in households making at least 100,000 annually were 28% more likely than average to download podcasts, while college graduates were 25% more likely.
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| Ratings & Research |
Another week of 98-2
 "WWE Entertainment" on USA and the NBA Playoffs on TNT were again the only cable shows to make the top 100 for all of advertiser-supported television for the 18-49 demo in the latest week's number crunch by TVB, based on broadcast and cable data from Nielsen Media Research. It will be interesting to see next season how "Law & Order: Criminal Intent" does after its first run moves from NBC to sister cable net USA. It rang in at #66 last week, just ahead of the highest ranked show on cable, "WWE entertainment."
| Read More... |
Nielsen//NetRatings moves forward
in MRC accreditation process
NetRatings announced it will move forward in the Media Rating Council (MRC) Accreditation process of its Internet audience measurement methods. Having completed a pre-audit, NetRatings will now commence the full accreditation process, specifically for its patented metering and page-tagging technologies, while continuing to execute on the already-existing MRC research plan for its panel procedures. NetRatings shared its plans at a cross-industry discussion hosted by the IAB and attended by the AAAAs, ANA, ARF, the Online Publishers Association (OPA) and the MRC. "With today's announcement that it will be moving into the audit phase of the MRC process, NetRatings has demonstrated leadership in answering the call for increased transparency in online media measurement," said George Ivie, CEO and executive director of the MRC. "We have been pleased with NetRatings' progress through the pre-audit process, and we look forward to working with them in the full MRC audit for the collective benefit of advertisers, advertising agencies, publishers and other users of Internet audience measurements."
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| Stock Talk |
Day ends down
A stock market surge fizzled amid mixed economic news. In the end, the Dow Industrials, which had surpassed 13,500 in trading, closed down 11 points at 13,476.
TV stocks were mixed. Nexstar surged 22.4% on word that it was putting itself up for sale. LIN, which has been the subject of similar speculation, rose 3.7%.
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| Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Thursday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Acme
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ACME
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4.67
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-0.29
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LIN TV
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TVL
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16.71
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+0.60
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Belo
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BLC
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19.86
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-0.02
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McGraw-Hill
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MHP
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70.13
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-0.33
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| CBS CI. B |
CBS |
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32.01
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-0.03
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Media General
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MEG
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37.04
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+0.09
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| CBS CI. A |
CBSa |
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32.05
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unch
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Meredith
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MDP
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60.21
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-0.02
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Clear Channel
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CCU
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37.79
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-0.11
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News Corp.
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NWS
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23.34
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-0.16
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Disney
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DIS
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35.99
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-0.02
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Nexstar
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NXST
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13.33
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+2.44
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Emmis
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EMMS
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10.45
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+0.29
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NY Times
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NYT
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24.52
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-0.44
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Entravision
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EVC
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9.57
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-0.03
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Ion Media
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ION
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1.41
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-0.01
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| Equity Media |
EMDA |
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4.22 |
-0.03 |
Saga Commun.
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SGA
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9.43
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+0.07
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Fisher
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FSCI
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48.84
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+0.15
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SBS
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SBSA
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4.12
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-0.11
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Gannett
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GCI
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59.20
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-0.31
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Scripps
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SSP
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44.51
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+0.52
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Gen. Electric
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GE
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36.53
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-0.30
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Sinclair
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SBGI
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15.06
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-0.02
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Granite
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GBTVK
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0.05
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unch
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SWMX
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SWMX
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0.25
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unch
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Gray
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GTN
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9.75
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+0.27
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Time Warner
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TWX
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21.52
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-0.08
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Gray, C1. A
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GTNa
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10.23
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+0.22
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Tribune
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TRB
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33.11
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+0.15
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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25.75
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+0.42
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Wash. Post
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WPO
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765.00
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-0.50
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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13.63
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-0.06
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Young
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YBTVA
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4.07
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+0.39
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Lincoln Natl.
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LNC
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73.63
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-0.79
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-
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-
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-
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-
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to tvnews@rbr.com
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Below the Fold
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Ad Business Report
Fall Upfront
Fox's 2007-2008 Primetime slate CW 2nd season with six new series...
Washington Media Business Report
If it's broke
The broker isn't responsible...
Ratings & Research
Nielsen//NetRatings
Moves forward in MRC accreditation process...
Another week of 98-2
WWE on USA and the NBA Playoffs on TNT only 2 on cable...
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Stations for Sale
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 Market your Stations For Sale
in our daily epapers.
Contact
June Barnes
jbarnes@rbr.com
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More News Headlines
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GM Marketing Chief Mike Jackson to depart
General Motors's VP/marketing and advertising for North America, Michael Jackson, is leaving to pursue other opportunities. The departure is effective 6/15 and the position he has held since March 2006 won't be filled, a spokeswoman told AdAge. The duties will be assumed by Mark LaNeve, VP-sales, service and marketing, North America. "Throughout his tenure Mike has contributed to GM's improved product image, and brought a creative approach to GM's market presence," LaNeve said in a statement. "We wish him well in his future endeavors."
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RBR - Radio News
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CCU deal "gaining momentum"
With a vote still set for next Tuesday on a 39 bucks buyout bid, which faces significant shareholder opposition, the Wall Street Journal reported in yesterday's edition that a sweetened deal is "gaining momentum" with major holders, including Highfields Capital and Fidelity Investments. The enhanced deal, which was initially rejected by the CCU board, would boost the buyout to 39.20, but also offer current shareholders the option to stay in and own as much as 30% of the new Clear Channel as partners with Thomas H. Lee Partners, Bain Capital and the Mays family. The company has already delayed the shareholder vote twice and it appears that it may be delayed again. The first vote was postponed when it became clear that the original 37.60 offer would be rejected and the bid was raised to 39, then again to give shareholders more time to consider the 39 bid. Adding an extra 20 cents wouldn't be difficult, but changing the terms to facilitate the conversion of some current shares to equity in the new company is complicated enough that the vote could be delayed for a couple of months.
RBR observation: It would have been a lot simpler to have offered 40 bucks a share, which nearly everyone on Wall Street thinks would have been enough to get the job done. It will be interesting to see how a going semi-private transaction will be handled. Will the stock be officially listed, or trade over-the-counter? Will any analysts follow it?
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TVBR Radar 2007
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Television News you won't read any where else. TVBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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2007-08 Pre-Upfront
Programming Report
CW: The CW's main goal during year one was to generate awareness for the newly created network among its core target audience of Adults 18-34. The CW relied on the strongest programming product from the since defunct WB and UPN in order to populate its primetime schedule. Unfortunately ratings performance for The CW was unable to outperform the sum of its parts. The nascent network is in sixth place across all major demographic groups behind Spanish language network, Univision. Read More in this special page report in TVBR.
05/17/07 TVBR #97
What's Emmis worth?
Emmis' stock may be trading around 10 bucks a share, but Bank of America analyst Jonathan Jacoby is telling clients the company is wroth twice that. He pegs the breakup value at 20-25 bucks. He figures the US radio stations alone are worth 1.8-2 billion, plus the value of the magazines, the overseas radio investments and the one remaining TV station. But, is CEO Jeff Smulyan likely to do anything to unlock that value?
05/17/07 RBR #97
McSlarrow wants to rein in the FCC
The Federal Trade Commission is the model that NCTA President/CEO Kyle McSlarrow has in mind for the FCC he'd want rather than the one we have. Under this model, the FCC would intervene only when the market has failed consumers in one way or another, rather than creating an amorphous mass of regulation with different goals, affecting different communications sectors, at different times.
05/17/07 TVBR #97
Thoughts on the upfront
In this week's "Thoughts to Entertain," Lehman Global Equity Research previewed the broadcast network Upfront presentations, as they expect total dollars generated by the broadcast network primetime Upfront to be flat to slightly down for the Big Four networks, driven by CPM increases of +5% to +7%. Lehman believes the soft outlook for dollar growth is a function of new digital and alternative distribution and a multiplicity of ratings methodologies driven by ad-skipping. Among the networks, they expect FOX and ABC to garner the largest total dollar increases...
TVBR note: This report sheds the light on a possible trend and our recommendation is to review it again in TVBR.
05/16/07 TVBR #96
2007-08 Pre-Upfront
Programming Report
Fox is currently ranked third in Households and total viewers. It's the top-rated network in Adults18-34 and is pretty much guaranteed a first place finish in Adults 18-49 for the third straight year. The networks occupies second place\ace in Adults 25-54 (behind CBS). More complete insight in this special page report of TVBR.
05/16/07 TVBR #96
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Hard finding that key person
to fill the important position at your organization? Media HeadHunters is the place that key media firms use to get results. See Media HeadHunters and get results with service--Period.
Need assistance
contact Cathy Carnegie
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