TVB forecast: Down, then up
With no elections or Olympics next year, the Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) is projecting that TV spot revenues will fall 1-3% in 2007. But then the good news: 2008, which will be a presidential election year, is expected to bring an 8-10% increase in spot revenues. TVB has been issuing its annual forecast to cover two-year cycles, rather than one year only, since 2000. "The structure of the business has changed dramatically because of the Olympics switching to a two-year frequency and because of the growth of political advertising in Spot. Odd years will always face tough comparisons to even years, when spending on both the Olympics and political ads show up. Spot TV is a two-year business cycle" said TVBR President and CEO Chris Rohrs as he unveiled the numbers. TVB's estimates are derived from a consensus of Wall Street and financial analysts, station representative firms, and independent TVB research. See the forecasts for 2007 and 2008.
TVB forecast for 2007
|
Local Spot
|
+0 to +2%
|
|
National Spot
|
-9 to -7%
|
|
TOTAL SPOT
|
-3 to -1%
|
|
Station Websites
|
+30 to 40%
|
|
Network
|
+0 to +2%
|
|
Syndication
|
+2 to +4%
|
|
Network Cable
|
+1 to +3%
|
|
Local Cable
|
+2 to +4%
|
TVB forecast for 2008
|
Local Spot
|
+5 to +7%
|
|
National Spot
|
+12 to +14%
|
|
TOTAL SPOT
|
+8 to +10%
|
|
Station Websites
|
+30 to +40%
|
|
Network
|
+5 to +7%
|
|
Syndication
|
+4 to +5%
|
|
Network Cable
|
+5 to +7%
|
|
Local Cable
|
+3 to +5%
|
Source: TVB
