Barclay Capital analyst Anthony DiClemente sees resilience in the advertising media, but that is not enough to prevent him from lowering estimates for overall advertising growth for both 2012 and 2013.
Barclays had been projecting a 4.6% increase in ad spending, but has now revised it down to 4.0%, and has dropped its 2013 projection from 2.3% to 1.9%.
This was despite a number of positives, including an unexpectedly robust jobs report for September, unexpected positive improvement in consumer confidence, strong back-to-school sales and good results for automobile dealers.
Television is expected to have a good Q4, according to DiClemente, partly due to easy comps, particularly on the cable side. And the full force of the political category should also be felt, along with new upfront price hikes and the introduction of new programming by certain networks.
Only one company was mentioned by DiClemente as having particularly good prospects, and that was News Corporation.
RBR-TVBR observation: DiClemente’s observations mirror those of Marci Ryvicker, who also recently crossed out a few projected numbers in favor of smaller ones. They also agreed on one point – DiClemente singled out News Corporation as his favorite at the moment – and that company was spared Ryvicker’s eraser even as she lowered projections for Disney, CBS and Viacom.