Wachovia Capital Markets analyst Marci Ryvicker doesn’t see much impact on broadcast and outdoor revenues from the Chrysler and GM dealer closing, since most weren’t doing much advertising anyway. She says advertising trends are “stagnant.”
According to her weekly “Ryvicker’s Roundup”: “Trends for both outdoor and pure-play broadcast are stagnant – not getting better and not getting worse. We polled several companies regarding the potential impact of the GM and Chrysler dealership closings. Most believe that such dealerships were already failing and hence were not spending much on advertising, so while there could be some incremental decline, it is not expected to be significant.”
Meanwhile, she’s not quite as bullish as before on the cable stocks: “The tone from the cable MSOs during this week’s [5/25-29] investor conference was very cautious. Underlying trends in Q2 are mirroring Q4 rather than Q1. We still anticipate a bump from the digital transition, but we are becoming more concerned about the back half of the year given job losses and the depressed housing market. All eyes and ears are on DISH as we await a ruling from the courts regarding Tivo. On Thursday, the Delaware court transferred its case to TX, consolidating jurisdictions, which may mean a further delay in this ruling. Worst case scenario is DISH has to pull the plug on its 4M DVRs, at which point DISH is likely to partner with Tivo (ala DTV and CMCSA).”
