Following the surprise report from RAB that September radio revenues plunged 7% (11/6/07 RBR #217), Wall Street analysts have been reworking their projections.
"After September’s significant decline, and our belief that significant industry weakness continued into October (according to our contacts), we are reducing our Q4 and full year industry estimates by 200bps [basis points] and 130bps, respectively. Our new estimates are -3% and -1.7% for Q4 and the full year, respectively," said Wachovia’s Marci Ryvicker in a note to clients. "Breaking Q4 out by month, we anticipate that October will be down 4%, November down 4% and December down 2%. Our new October and November estimates are largely a result of difficult comparisons due to the 2006 elections in addition to much softer market conditions than we had previously anticipated," she stated. Ryvicker’s research piece was headlined "Sept. Radio MUCH Uglier Than Expected."
At Bank of America, Jonathan Jacoby has revised his Q4 industry revenue estimate to a drop of 3%, rather than 1%. "We believe the weakness in local markets will continue into 4Q, and in conjunction with indications from our channel checks that business will continue to be sluggish for the remainder of the year (i.e., esp. in NYC, LA, Chicago where buyers are waiting for the PPM rollout before placing late year business) we estimate industry revenues to be down 3% in 4Q," he said.