Huntington Bank senior economist George Mokrzan says we cannot rule out the possibility of a double dip recession, particularly if the globe is hit with another unforeseen crisis. But he likes the odds for continued and gradually accelerating economic improvement through 2011.
Mokrzan expects slow-to-moderate growth as 2010 winds down, with the economy picking up more steam next year. But he also sees a 26% chance for the double-dip to kick in.
“The economy is especially vulnerable when it comes to additional negative economic shocks, whether they come from credit markets, the geo-political environment, the policy environment or other unforeseeable areas,” Mokrzan said.
He noted that the sluggish labor market is impeding growth in consumer spending. He said further tax cuts might loosen some spending money, but that the other part of that double-edged sword involves increasing the national debt, making it a tool that might have to stay in the sheath.