How much faith do you and your colleagues still have in pundits and predictions?
Given the recent track record of wonks, soothsayers, curanderas and individuals who hold Nostradamus in high regard (note: these individuals should not be in the CFO role at your company), some forecasts may be as accurate as the one that said it would be 17c in Central Park on Saturday night — not 17º Fahrenheit.
One of the great forecasts that have arrived in recent months, with respect to ad dollars and trends, may be just as off as that weather forecast for New York City. This forecast is centered around digital ad spending and when, exactly, digital ad spending will sail past that of traditional television.
It’s set to happen this year. But … the IAB’s champagne corks may not be popping at a Memorial Day or Labor Day party on a sunny summer’s eve in Silicon Valley. A Thanksgiving feast or end-of-year holiday fête may be a much more likely local for singing ¡Vive le Révolution Digital!
And, how ironic would it be if those champagnes were popped while watching ad-filled NFL football on Turkey Day or another stellar edition of Pitbull’s New Year’s Earache and Nineties Hip-Hop Horror Night on a big-screen TV?
TV ain’t dead. The numbers prove it.
