SNL Kagan says small-to-midsize markets in the Pacific region, especially in metro areas with large Hispanic populations, are the US radio markets having the greatest growth potential.
Also, after a decline in 2007, the annual report projects that there will be growth for radio revenues over the next five years.
Radio Market Revenues by Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Rank
| CAGR Rank |
Market | ’07 Market Rank |
CAGR ’07-’12 |
Retail Growth ’07-’12 |
| 1. | San Diego, CA | 17 | 2.0% | 11.9% |
| 2. | Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA, | 26 | 1.9% | 10.1% |
| 3. | Stockton, CA | 79 | 1.9% | 11.9% |
| 4. | San Jose, CA | 35 | 1.9% | 8.9% |
| 5. | Fresno, CA | 66 | 1.9% | 10.7% |
SNL Kagan estimates five-year annual revenue growth of 1.1% for radio markets, despite a 2.5% drop in total radio revenue in 2007. San Diego tops the list of fastest-growing markets, largely due to a substantial Hispanic population, the shifting economic focus to high-tech jobs and a five-year retail growth rate of 11.9% (well above the national average of 6.5%). Overall, radio revenues in the Pacific region are expected to grow rapidly, with 13 of the top 20 markets by revenue residing in California.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Great Lakes and Central South regions rank lowest for both radio and TV revenue projections. Slow retail growth and auto industry layoffs are the main factors for the depressed outlook in the Great Lakes, where revenue is projected to grow 2.7% for TV and 0.9% for radio. The Central South, particularly the Mississippi markets still recovering from Hurricane Katrina, faces tough times ahead, with projected revenue growth of 2.8% for TV and 0.8% for radio.
Data and projections from "Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook: Market-by-Market Revenue Projections," published annually by SNL Kagan for over 20 years.
