SNL Kagan says small-to-midsize markets in the Pacific region, especially in metro areas with large Hispanic populations, are the US television markets having the greatest growth potential.
The annual report also projects that TV station revenues will grow at an annual rate of 3.9% over the next five years.
Television Market Revenues by Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) Rank
| CAGR Rank |
Market | ’07 Market Rank |
CAGR ’07-’12 |
Retail Growth ’07-’12 |
| 1. | Las Vegas, NV | 43 | 6.2% | 7.9% |
| 2. | San Diego, CA | 27 | 6.1% | 11.9% |
| 3. | Los Angeles, CA | 2 | 5.7% | 7.7% |
| 4. | Phoenix, AZ | 12 | 5.6% | 6.4% |
| 5. | San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA | 6 | 5.6% | 7.3% |
SNL Kagan projects growth in TV revenues (3.9% over the next five years) despite a 2007 decline of 8.5% generated by the writers’ strike and advertising migration to the Internet. TV ad revenues are expected to rise 8.8% in 2008 from TV ad buys connected with the presidential election. The largest growth will likely be in the Pacific and Mountain regions, with Las Vegas and San Diego at the top of the list.
At the other end of the spectrum, the Great Lakes and Central South regions rank lowest for both radio and TV revenue projections. Slow retail growth and auto industry layoffs are the main factors for the depressed outlook in the Great Lakes, where revenue is projected to grow 2.7% for TV and 0.9% for radio. The Central South, particularly the Mississippi markets still recovering from Hurricane Katrina, faces tough times ahead, with projected revenue growth of 2.8% for TV and 0.8% for radio.
Data and projections from "Radio/TV Station Annual Outlook: Market-by-Market Revenue Projections," published annually by SNL Kagan for over 20 years.
