WASHINGTON, D.C. — The novel coronavirus’ financial fallout continues to worry many, and the cancellation on Tuesday of the 2020 Pac-12 NCAA College Football season — with a goal to play in spring 2021 — is yet another harbinger of what could be a difficult back half of 2020.
As such, BIA Advisory Services has lowered its full-year total local advertising market for 2020 by $3.9 billion.
The revenue adjustment, released by BIA on Wednesday morning, now puts the total local ad market for this year at $140.4 billion, down from $144.3 billion in April.
The s updated forecast estimate represents a 6.1 percent decline from 2019, even with strong political advertising anticipated this year and “a few business verticals showing advertising strength,” BIA says.
BIA SVP/Chief Economist Dr. Mark Fratrik says his team analyzed the continuing impact on local advertising by the weakened economy, continuing job loss reports, and the downturn in several key business verticals. “Right now, we believe a realistic view of the economy overall and the advertising marketplace is that after a dramatic decrease in the second-quarter and a bumpy start to the third, the remainder of the year will turn positive but end up with an overall decline in local advertising for the year,” Fratrik says.
“After a dramatic decrease in the second-quarter and a bumpy start to the third, the remainder of the year will turn positive but end up with an overall decline in local advertising for the year.” — Dr. Mark Fratrik, BIA Advisory Services
Local political ad spend continues to be one positive area. As campaigns continue to migrate to online rallies and events, both presidential and down ballot candidates are spending significant dollars in local broadcast and digital advertising. Since its April forecast, BIA increased the expected political ad spend by $209 million, to roughly $7.3 billion.
Of the increase, the distributed share to different media include $138 million to broadcast TV, $40 million to Cable, $26 million to Online/Digital, and $5 million to broadcast radio.