Like other forecasters, BIA Advisory Services has turned even more bearish on the advertising market outlook for 2009. It now expects 2008 to finish down 7% for television station revenues and that 2009 will drop an additional 8.5%. The projected revenues of $10.1 billion this year are the lowest in seven years.
A year ago, BIA had projected that 2008 would be a growth year, up 8.7%. But the rapid deterioration of the US economy in recent months torpedoed those expectations, leading to the 7% decline. BIA VP Mark Fratrik had expected that without an election 2009 would be down, but only by 4.1%. That’s now grown to 8.5%.
He is, however, projecting 6.4% growth in 2010 – and that’s not all due to political spending. “I’m assuming we have some rebound in the economy by the end of Q3 2009,” he told RBR/TVBR. “2010 will be an economy where retailers will want to move products,” he added.
How can stations make the situation better, sooner?
"The television industry needs to focus more on compelling cross-platform advertising opportunities in order to significantly raise their revenues in the coming years. With the steady improvement of their online and mobile presence they now need to demonstrate to their advertisers the significant value proposition they can offer through a bundled advertising package,” Fratrik said.
Here’s a look at BIA’s tally from 2000 through its projection for 2012.