Ad buying giant Carat has revised downward its worldwide advertising expenditure forecasts. 2008 ad growth is now projected to be 4.9%, down from the previous projection of 6%. US growth is expected to be only 2.1%, not 3.8% as previously forecast.
"It’s clear that the worldwide economic issues affecting businesses are having an impact on where and how advertisers spend their money. It is also significant that the US and the UK, as the highest spenders on advertising in their regions, are showing reductions in our forecasts. But overall, the picture is still one of growth,” said Jerry Buhlmann, CEO of Aegis Media, which owns Carat.
Growth in the US is predicted to slow to 2.1% from Carat’s earlier forecast of 3.8%, with newspapers, magazines and radio all having shown declines this year, but there will be growth in TV, thanks to the presidential elections and the Olympics, and in the Internet. The UK’s overall forecast has been cut from 4.3% to 2.5%, with a downward revision of 1.8% points.
| Year on year % growth at current prices | |||
| 2007a | 2008e | 2009e | |
| Global | 5.1 | 4.9 (6.0) | 4.8 (4.9) |
| USA | 1.3 | 2.1 (3.8) | 3.1 (2.6) |
| Canada | 9.1 | 6.1 (7.2) | 7.2 (7.7) |
| Asia Pacific | 7.4 | 8.2 (8.8) | 5.7 (7.2) |
| Japan | 0.9 | 1.5 (1.5) | 0.5 (0.5) |
| China | 15.5 | 18.2 (19.7) | 10.9 (13.2) |
| Western Europe | 4.5 | 2.2 (3.8) | 2.3 (3.6) |
| UK | 6.3 | 2.5 (4.3*) | 2.2 (4.4*) |
| Germany | 0.0 | 0.3 (0.5) | 0.5 (0.7) |
| France | 0.9 | 1.7 (1.8) | 2.4 (2.6) |
| Italy | 3.9 | 2.8 (3.6) | 2.4 (3.1) |
| Spain | 5.9 | -2.3 (3.8) | -0.8 (3.5) |
| Nordics | 7.5 | 4.3 (5.0) | 3.1 (4.0) |
| Central and Eastern Europe | 21.7 | 16.8 (17.9) | 15.2 (15.3) |
| Russia | 26.5 | 22.8 (22.6) | 19.5 (19.3) |
| Figures in brackets show our previous forecasts, issued in Mar 2008 * change in methodology to include classifieds in press | |||
Source: Carat
For the first time, Internet advertising worldwide is expected to surpass radio, putting the Web in 4th place behind TV, newspapers and magazines.
Sector breakdown
| Global year on year % growth at current prices | |||
| 2007a | 2008e | 2009e | |
| TV | 5.0 | 5.9 | 5.5 |
| Newspapers | 0.4 | -0.8 | -0.2 |
| Magazines | 4.6 | 1.7 | 2.3 |
| Radio | 2.1 | 3.3 | 3.3 |
| Cinema | 17.0 | 13.2 | 13.3 |
| Outdoor | 6.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 |
| Internet | 28.8 | 23.7 | 18.6 |
Source: Carat
