Economic trend: sales decline slows but no light


Sales Decline has Stopped Deteriorating, But Still No Light at End of Tunnel Yet
It appears that the downward spiral of same store sales growth has stabilized according to the November ForecastIQ® (a service from Prosper Technologies, LLC) as there is some improvement for retailers. However, this isn’t necessarily good news because the majority of retailers tracked are likely/almost certain to see a decrease in same store sales now through January.

Most of the positive movement year-over-year in retailer forecasts was going from “almost certain” to see a decline in same store sales to “likely” to see a decline; which although encouraging, doesn’t translate into growth. The retailers who moved up slightly to likely to see a decline include: Nordstrom, Old Navy, Saks, American Eagle, Bon-Ton and Wet Seal.

On the other hand, bright spots continue to be the retailers with a discount offering. Ross and TJX are almost certain to see an increase in same store sales over the next six weeks. Youth-oriented retailers Aeropostale and Buckle are also poised to see an increase.

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A partial list of retailers covered in the ForecastIQ™ and expectations for same store sales growth/decline through December follows:

Almost certain to see increase:   Almost certain to see decline:          
Buckle                            Abercrombie & Fitch         JC Penney                     
Ross                              Dillard’s                   Neiman Marcus     
TJX                               Gap                         Stage    
                                  Hot Topic                   Steinmart                  

Likely to see increase:           Likely to see decline:    
Aeropostale                       Cato’s
BJ’s                              Children’s Place  
Costco                            Nordstrom  
                                  Old Navy
Flat:                             American Eagle
Banana Republic                   Bon-Ton      
Fred’s                            Wet Seal

About ForecastIQ™
ForecastIQ™ was developed by Prosper Technologies and Greg Allenby by analyzing over 7 years of data from BIGresearch’s monthly Consumer Intentions & Actions (CIA) surveys based upon future spending plans of consumers and the same store sales of over 27 publicly held retailers, by applying Bayesian quantile analysis to the data. The results are accurate and for the first time, provide a forecast of consumer spending 75 days in advance. Same store sales forecasts are provided by percent growth over the next 45 and 75-day period and also include an enhancement to the consensus currently provided in the marketplace. Short-term forecasts are also available via enhanced consensus estimates.

About Prosper Technologies
Prosper Technologies develops software applications that provide consumer-centric analytics to marketers/retailers for better forecasting consumer demand, allocating marketing dollars, tracking consumer behaviors and understanding cross-shopping patterns.