Welcome to RBR's Daily Epaper
Volume 25, Issue 10, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
Wednesday Morning January 16th, 2008

Radio News ®


Jackson lobbies for minority space
Jesse Jackson Jr. (pictured), head of the Rainbow/PUSH Coalition, has told FCC Chairman Kevin Martin that he'd be OK with allowing the proposed XM/Sirius merger to go ahead. There is a big if, however -- he wants them to cede make enough spectrum available for a 50-70 channel minority competitor to enter the space. According to Bloomberg News, Jackson is backing the proposal of Georgetown Partners LLC. The minority owned investment firm thinks it can get a service up in space and on the air with leased access to at least 20% of the eventual combined spectrum of a combined XM/Sirius entity. Georgetown is looking to provide a free, advertiser-supported service (as opposed to the XM/Sirius subscription-based model) which would only require that a consumer wishing to listen in acquire the necessary consumer hardware. According to Bloomberg, XM and Sirius oppose the idea, noting that they already supply diverse programming, a situation that this proposal would undermine.

RBR observation: We're certain that when XM and Sirius drew up their merger plans they did not include making room for a third party. Would approval of the merger with this caveat be better than no approval at all? We'd guess so.

Crystal ball shows lots of station trading
The brokers of Media Services Group have been meeting in Ft. Lauderdale and have issued their station trading outlook for this year. MSG predicts that small to medium market radio properties will trade at 7-9 times broadcast cash flow during 2008, and 9-11 times BCF for larger markets. "We think the industry is resetting pricing, and expect the year to be record setting in terms of station trading volume. The first half of the year will be affected by capital constraints, which we expect to loosen in the second half," said George Reed, managing director of MSG. "The reports from our people at the meeting indicate that as the year progresses, market conditions will improve from current levels. We expect an unprecedented volume of stations to change hands by year-end, the most since the passage of the Telecommunications Act in 1996," Reed added.

RBR observation: Obviously the MSG brokers have a vested interest in seeing lots of station trading, but there is logic to their forecast. The credit crunch caused by the subprime mortgage debacle has mostly impacted very large deals - say over 100 million bucks and especially into the billions - which banks have to syndicate. But there has been no shortage of lending available for deals in the tens of millions. So the holdup in the station trading market has been the gap between bid and ask. When will that gap narrow? The MSG guys say the second half of 2008 will see would-be sellers adjust to the new pricing reality.


The gripes of wrath, 1H 2007
The FCC was a little slow getting out its report on consumer inquiries and complaints for 2007, which are usually released on a quarterly basis. This time, reports for both Q1 and Q2 2007 have been put out simultaneously. The stats show a slight uptick over the six month period in consumer DTV inquiries, which totaled 553 in Q1 and rose to 651 during Q2. Program issues were relatively steady, with 4,563 coming in during Q1 and 4,299 during Q2. Indecency is the category everyone is interested in, and it was a relatively quiet category during Q4 2006, when only 31K complaints rolled in. That number ballooned to 148,281 during January 2007 alone before settling back into a much quieter pattern. There were an even 1,000 in February and only 176 in March for a Q1 total of 149,457; followed by 4,055 in April, 212 in May and 101 in June, for a Q2 total of only 4,368.

RBR observation: We looked back in our archives for January. It appears that a wave of protest may have been caused by a lingering camera shot of a football fan during a NFL playoff game between the Philadelphia Eagles and the New Orleans Saints that expressed a less-than-savory opinion of the Eagles. The Parents Television Council maintained that the shot was intentional; Fox said it wasn't, and that it should be excused under the fleeting, non-repetitive accident clause that used to be the rule, even for f-bombs. The FCC didn't issue a new indecency finding all year while fighting the fleeting battle in court.

Clear Channel ready for Justice
Now that the FCC has signed off on the privatization of Clear Channel via its sale to Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital, the next stop is the Department of Justice. Clear Channel announced that it has initiated the DoJ approval process. The change in ownership was filed in December 2006 and shareholder approval has been sought since last spring, but events have conspired to stall the transaction, including balky shareholders, shaky stock prices, a tough station trading environment which has held up a number of spin-offs, and instability in the credit market. Rumors have been circulating that the investment groups may wish to pull out of the deal, but they would have to pay a stiff penalty to do so. Bear Stearns analyst Vic Miller says a mid-February to mid-March closing is expected, but he notes that Wall Street worries about funding for the deal will remain until the closing takes place.

RBR observation: As we noted earlier, the consolidation aspects of this transaction are actually favorable to those who wish for less of it. The transaction will remove grandfathering status for a handful of otherwise oversized market clusters. And Clear Channel has been selling properties anyway, regardless of whether or not the Lee/Bain deal goes through. This would seem to be a no-brainer for the DoJ.


Ad Business Report TM

2008 industry forecasts:
The good, the bad and the ugly

RBR asked major industry organization heads in our annual survey for their 2008 forecasts, insights, solutions and ideas. 2008 promises to be a busy year for these organizations. IAB is grappling with keeping the FTC from regulating too much of its behavioral targeting abilities. Radio is still working to monetize HD and keep the dollars coming in. The TVB has to deal with less robust programming options from the networks due to the strike; and most everyone is in the midst of further capitalizing on digital and new technologies. We asked about everything from what they're recommending to constituents to whether they expect more growth this year in local or national.

RBR/TVBR spoke to Jeff Haley (pictured), Radio Advertising Bureau (RAB) CEO; O. Burtch Drake, American Association of Advertising Agencies (AAAA) CEO; Chris Rohrs, Television Bureau of Advertising (TVB) President; Randall Rothenberg, Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB) CEO; John Sturm, Newspaper Association of America (NAA) CEO; Sean Cunningham, Cabletelevision Advertising Bureau (CAB) CEO; and Stephen Freitas, Outdoor Advertising Association of America (OAAA) Chief Marketing Officer.
| Today's question: What is your outlook for 2008? |

RECMA: Mediaedege:cia most competitive in '07
Mediaedege:cia was the most competitive media agency for new business pitches over the past year, according to findings of the ninth Compitches Report, released this by RECMA. The report awards a point system to agencies based on how competitive they were on media account reviews. It assigned Mediaedge:cia 365 points for the year, ahead of second place WPP sister MediaCom with 356 points. The survey analyses the pitches and moves to media agencies, summarizing the advertisers' choices. In 2007, RECMA has analyzed 2179 pitches and moves, including retentions and extensions of accounts from 205 agencies in 15 countries.
| See the rankers here |


Media Business Report TM
Oprah gets her OWN network
Discovery Communications announced a deal with Oprah Winfrey to launch OWN: The Oprah Winfrey Network in mid-2009, replacing the Discovery Health Channel, currently available in 70 million homes. The new venture will be owned 50/50 by Winfrey's Harpo Productions and Discovery. "Fifteen years ago, I wrote in my journal that one day I would create a television network, as I always felt my show was just the beginning of what the future could hold. For me, the launch of 'The Oprah Winfrey Network' is the evolution of the work I've been doing on television all these years and a natural extension of my show," said Winfrey in announcing the new venture.

Winfrey is not actually new to the business of launching a cable network. She was an original investor in Oxygen, although it is not clear that she or anyone else turned much of a profit when the network was sold to NBC Universal last year for 925 million bucks. No cash is changing hands in creating OWN. Winfrey will serve as Chairman of The Oprah Winfrey Network, LLC. The search is underway for a CEO. In addition to providing her talent, and personal commitment, Winfrey will have full editorial control over the joint venture and will be responsible for OWN's programming, branding and creative vision. Discovery Communications will contribute to the venture the Discovery Health Channel, as well as handle distribution, origination and other operational requirements. Both organizations will contribute advertising sales services to the venture.

RBR observation: It is clear that Oprah Winfrey is an entertainment franchise, so this venture makes a lot of sense for discovery, which is only giving up its least-watched cable network. The new network won't have Winfrey's daily TV show, since that syndication contract has several years to run. But that's actually good for her. So long as Winfrey keeps building her already sizeable audience on broadcast TV, that just helps increase interest in her start-up cable network.

Warner Bros., National CineMedia form marketing pact
Warner Bros. and National CineMedia have formed a partnership to provide pre-feature entertainment content and advertising in movie theatres nationwide. Warner Bros. will provide original, exclusive content for NCM's FirstLook pre-feature program, giving audiences a behind-the-scenes look at upcoming Warner Bros. films including Fool's Gold and Speed Racer. Delivered through NCM's Digital Content Network, FirstLook is currently seen on approximately 13,500 screens in AMC Entertainment, Cinemark USA, Georgia Theatre Company, Goodrich Quality Theaters, Kerasotes ShowPlace Theatres, Regal Entertainment Group and others nationwide in 164 markets. Warner Bros. joins NCM's existing FirstLook content partners A&E Television Networks, Discovery Communications, NBC, Sony Pictures Entertainment, Turner Broadcasting System and Universal Studios.


Media Markets & Money TM
Two Ohio markets resold
Clear Channel has a new buyer for two of the markets that were previously on the list being sold to Frequency License. The two are Ohio markets and will be bought by BAS Broadcasting, which already has stations in Bellevue, Fremont and Mount Vernon. WTTF-AM & WPFX-FM Findlay-Tiffin and WLEC-AM, WCPZ-FM & WMJK-FM Sandusky will now be added to the portfolio of BAS, headed by Jim Lorenzen and Tom Klein. Kalil & Co. represented Clear Channel and the sale and Greg Guy of Patrick Communications represented BAS. No word yet on the price.

Mammoth FM's AM partner is over Thayer
Robert and Rebecca Eckman are getting a border-straddling AM-FM combo from Ozark Radio Network for 830K. The AM sits in the southern extremity of Missouri, while the FM hails from the northernmost portion of Arkansas. The Missouri station is KALM-AM; the Arkansas sister is KAMS-FM. An LMA began 1/1/08. The Eckmans operate under licensee name E-Communications LLC. Robert Eckman will be divesting a 15% stake in Central Ozark Radio Network, not that it would preclude this deal.


Washington Business Report TM
Copyright champion Berman may be on the move
The retirement of Rep. Tom Lantos (D-CA) due to illness may open up the top slot at the House Foreign Affairs Committee for Howard L. Berman (D-CA), a move which would move him out of the chairs at Judiciary's Copyright Subcommittee, where he has been a big advocate for producers and artists over the interests of broadcasters. Lantos, who has cancer, will be retiring at the end of the 110th Congress. Introducing performance fees for music played over the air has been an issue of late, but at a recent hearing in the Senate Judiciary Committee, some senators noted that it was not yet a front-burner issue.

RBR observation: Berman has been bulldoggish on copyright issues, and any change at the chair of his subcommittee would probably ratchet down the pressure at least a little bit. But the overall effect may not be all that noticeable. This is one of those issues that pits one industry against another -- in this case, broadcasters versus the recording industry -- and party affiliation is not a strong indicator as to where an individual legislator stands.


Entertainment Business Report TM
KFTI Morning Newsradio debuts
Journal Broadcasting's AM 1070 KFTI Wichita expanded its morning news programming this week. Local information will be the priority when "AM 1070 Morning Newsradio" debuts, and will include news from the KFDI 24-Hour Newscenter, breaking news, KFDI Time Saver traffic from the station's mobile units and weather from KWCH Storm Team 12 Chief Meteorologist Merril Teller. KFDI Assignment Editor Josh Wells will anchor the morning news block. AM 1070 Morning Newsradio also will include an expansion of the KWCH 12 Eyewitness news partnership, with a simulcast of KWCH Morning News programming between 5 and 6 a.m. each weekday. AM 1070 The Ranch Classic Country programming, hosted by Johnny Western, will follow AM 1070 Morning Newsradio each weekday at 10 a.m.


Internet Business Report TM
TargetSpot adds six broadcasters
Streaming media advertising company TargetSpot announced partnerships with six new broadcasters, including NextMedia, owner of 42 stations and inTune.fm, a top new Facebook application. Over 500 stations have already signed on to utilize TargetSpot's platform to unlock the monetary value of streaming media. The other four broadcast groups to sign on are KFMB Stations, Delmarva Broadcasting Company, South Central Radio Group and Keymarket Communications. TargetSpot's patent pending technology allows businesses to create, buy and place their own advertising messages within streaming media.


Music Business Report
EMI cuts 2,000 jobs
New Chairman Guy Hands, whose Terra Firma private equity recently bought the company, announced a major restructuring of EMI Group, cutting 2,000 employees from the staff of the giant record company. The new structure is supposed to focus on maximizing revenues from existing artists - it seems catalog sales are quite profitable and Hands is looking at new income streams from digital media - and to sign some promising new ones. "We have spent a long time looking intensely at EMI and the problems faced by its Recorded Music division which, like the rest of the music industry, has been struggling to respond to the challenges posed by a digital environment. We believe we have devised a new revolutionary structure for the group that will improve every area of the business. In short it will make EMI's music more valuable for the company and its artists alike. The changes we are announcing today will ensure that this iconic company will be creating wonderful music in a way that is profitable and sustainable," said Hands in announcing the changes. In all, the restructuring is expected to same up to 200 million pounds per year, or 393 million US bucks.


Ratings & Research
Holiday sales rose 3% in 2007
According to the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales for December (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) rose 1.7% unadjusted over last year and decreased 0.4% seasonally adjusted from November. In addition, November retail industry sales were revised downward to 4.7% growth from the initial 5.1% that was reported last month. As a result, 2007 holiday sales, which combine November and December sales, rose 3% to 469.9 billion, weaker than NRF's projected 4% holiday forecast. This represents the lowest holiday season growth since 2002, when sales rose 1.3%. December retail sales released by the U.S. Commerce Department show total retail sales (which include non-general merchandise categories such as autos, gasoline stations and restaurants) dipped 0.4% seasonally adjusted from last month and rose 3.2% unadjusted year-over-year. Seasonal bright spots were seen by health and personal care stores where unadjusted sales grew 3.7% year-over-year and 0.7% seasonally adjusted from November. General merchandise stores also saw small gains, with sales increasing 2.1% year-over-year and 0.3% from the previous month. Weakness was seen by clothing and clothing accessories stores, furniture and home furnishings stores, and department stores. NRF is forecasting that retail industry sales will increase 3.5% in 2008.


Transactions
100K WQOR-AM Wilkes Barre-Scranton PA (Olyphant PA) from Holy Family Communications (James Wright) to JMJ Radio Inc. (Edward C. Niewinski, Carol A. Niewinski, Leo McKernan). 5K escrow, balance in cash at closing. Both buyer and seller are non-profit entities. [File date 12/19/07.]


Stock Talk
Bad news day for Wall Street
A weak report on December retail sales from the Commerce Department and a big write-down by Citigroup for bad mortgages put a cloud over Wall Street. The Dow Industrials fell 277 points, or 2.2%, to 12,501.

Radio stocks were mostly lower. The RBR Radio Index was down 0.804, or 1%, to 79.404. Cumulus tumbled 6.7%. Entercom and SBS were each down 4.2%.


Radio Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Tuesday

Company Symbol Close Change Company Symbol Close Change

Arbitron*

ARB

40.96

+0.46

Google

GOOG

637.65

-16.17

Beasley*

BBGI

4.68

-0.15

Hearst-Argyle

HTV

19.90

+0.01

CBS CI. B CBS

23.53

-0.74

Journal Comm.

JRN

7.47

-0.04

CBS CI. A CBSa

23.56

-0.70

Lincoln Natl.

LNC

54.83

-1.52

Citadel* CDL
1.52 unch

Radio One, Cl. A

ROIA

1.89

+0.04

Clear Channel*

CCU

34.67

-0.02

Radio One, Cl. D*

ROIAK

1.93

+0.08

Cox Radio*

CXR

10.69

-0.41

Regent*

RGCI

1.32

-0.04

Cumulus*

CMLS

5.28

-0.38

Saga Commun.*

SGA

6.02

+0.06

Debut Bcg.

DBTB

0.97

unch

Salem Comm.*

SALM

4.05

-0.06

Disney

DIS

29.85

-0.50

Sirius Sat. Radio

SIRI

2.84

-0.01

Emmis*

EMMS

2.74

-0.06

Spanish Bcg.*

SBSA

1.58

-0.07

Entercom*

ETM

10.62

-0.47

Westwood One*

WON

1.64

+0.13

Entravision

EVC

6.83

-0.11

XM Sat. Radio

XMSR

10.71

+0.04

Fisher

FSCI

34.24

+0.23

-

-

-

-

-

*Component of the RBR Radio Index


Bounceback

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Below the Fold
Ad Business Report
2008 industry forecasts:
The good, the bad and the ugly major industry organization heads forecast this year...

Media Business Report
Oprah gets her OWN network
Discovery to launch OWN: in mid-09, replacing Discovery Health...

Media Markets & Money
Two Ohio markets resold
Clear Channel has a new buyer for the markets that were previously on the list being sold...

Music Business Report
EMI cuts 2,000 jobs
New structure is supposed to focus on maximizing revenues from existing artists...




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Radio Media Moves

AWRT honors Tanzer
American Women in Radio & Television (AWRT) has named Audrey Tanzer as its 2008 Achievement Award winner, to be presented March 14th at the AWRT's Annual Leadership Summit and business Conference in Washington, DC. Tanzer joined AWRT in 1985 and has held numerous posts at the national level and in the NYC Chapter. She spent much of her broadcasting career as a national rep and retired after several years with the Station Representatives Association.

Realigning Big D
Mitch Dolan, President, Citadel O&O Radio Station Group, announced the new management team for Citadel's Dallas cluster. WBAP President and General Manager Keri Korzeniewski will be responsible for all operational facets of WBAP-AM. Victor Sansone, most recently with Citadel's Atlanta cluster, will be returning to Dallas as President and General Manager of KSCS-FM and KTYS-FM. Both Korzeniewski and Sansone will report directly to Dolan.

Walker to Charlotte
Veteran wake-up guy Steve Walker is joining Monticello Media in Charlottesville, VA to host mornings on WCJZ-FM/WSUH-FM "generations 102.3 & 94.1."

McCoy Back
to CBS-FM

Former PD, Joe McCoy is heading back to WCBS-FM, but for this Sunday night only. Gotcha. Joe let us know at RBR that he will be part of their Radio Greats feature this Sunday night, 20th. And yep, doing an air shift from 7pm to 10pm. As Joe said, "I get to be a Rock n' Roll DJ again and have some fun on the radio." If you get a chance listen in. Those outside of the NYC area can hear it on www.wcbsfm.com. Just click "listen live".




More News Headlines

Awards renamed to honor Quaal
The Broadcasters Foundation of America Pioneer Awards have been renamed the Ward L. Quaal Broadcast Pioneer Awards to honor the retired President of WGN Continental Broadcasting (now Tribune Broadcasting), where he developed both WGN-AM and WGN-TV into icons of American broadcasting. The renaming of the awards to honor Quaal was made possible by grants to the Broadcasters Foundation of America Endowment Fund by The Hubbard Broadcasting Foundation and the McCormick Tribune Foundation. The awards will be dedicated in Quaal's honor at the foundation's annual Pioneers Breakfast April 16th in Las Vegas during the NAB Convention.

Johnson takes heat for Clinton BET
Black Entertainment Television founder Robert L. Johnson (who is no longer associated with the iconic cable channel) is promoting the presidential candidacy of Hillary Clinton (D-NY), and remarks he made concerning her chief rival, Barack Obama (D-IL) have sparked a war of words between the two camps. Johnson said that African Americans have been looking for a candidate with Obama's superficial attributes for a long time, and now that they have one, it's difficult to campaign against him -- although that is what Johnson wishes to do on policy grounds. Meanwhile, Johnson's ex-wife is backing Obama.



RBR Radar 2008
Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Penny stocks proliferate
Radio stocks continue to take a beating on Wall Street. Both Beasley and Salem last week fell into penny stock territory, joining quite a few other radio companies. Who else is in danger of doing the same? 2007 may have been the year of penny stocks for the radio sector, as we noted in the Intelligence Brief on last year's stock market activity released on Friday, but the "year of woe," as we described it, is certainly continuing into 2008. Regent, Emmis, Radio One, Westwood One and Citadel all saw their stock prices fall below the five bucks mark over the course of 2007. Many pension managers and mutual funds aren't permitted to own penny stocks, so when a stock dips below that barrier, a round of selling often follows, just accelerating the stock price decline. Salem crossed the magic barrier last Wednesday and Beasley followed on Thursday. Despite the pending 11.50 per share bid to take the company private, Cumulus! Media is the radio stock next closest to the line, recently trading below six bucks. Saga Communications, likewise, has been below six of late.

RBR observation: Expectations of a flat revenue year, at best, doesn't do much to put a floor under radio stock prices. Growing indications that the US economy is about to fall into recession, or already has, will continue to put pressure on all stock prices. Anyone who thinks they are snapping up bargain stocks right now could well be right, but they may have to hold on for a bumpy ride before realizing profits.
01/15/08 RBR #9

WGA Strike Central, Day 72
Latest network primetime
schedule changes

Carat Programming's Broadcast and Video Beat reports CBS has acquired the rights to recycle some used content from pay cable sibling Showtime. A squeaky clean version of serial killer drama Dexter will air on Sundays at 10 p.m. as of 2/17. Dexter's executive producer and WGA member Daniel Cerrone, as well as other writing producers, won't be involved in creating the edited version for CBS; they're on strike. Effective 2/10, CW's Monday night comedy block will move to Sunday nights, where it briefly aired when the network launched back in September '06. Freshman drama Gossip Girl (8 p.m.) followed by Pussycat Dolls: Girlicious (9 p.m.) will occupy Monday nights.
01/15/08 TVBR #9


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