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Volume 22, Issue 166, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Wednesday Morning August 24th, 2005

Radio News®

Analysts up estimates for Emmis TV sell-off
After seeing the numbers for the first nine TV stations sold by Emmis Communications, Wall Street analysts are upping their projections of the total take. At Bear Stearns, analyst Victor Miller has increased his estimate by 100 million - - to a range of 1.25-1.35 billion. With Emmis significantly reducing its leverage, Miller is also wondering what's ahead. One option, he notes, would be to take the company private. "While we think this scenario is still unlikely, it would highlight EMMS considerable private market value," he noted. At Goldman Sachs, analyst Mark Wienkes also notes that the first round of sales at Emmis amounts to about half of the TV group's EBITDA, so he expects the total to come in around 1.3 billion - - up from the Wall Street consensus of 1.2 billion. But Wienkes thinks the sale is already reflected in Emmis' stock price, so he's maintaining his "in-line" recommendation on the stock.

RBR observation: That 1.2 billion consensus was more like 1.0 not long ago - - and there were even stories in some newspapers that Emmis might take less than one billion if it could find a single buyer willing to take the whole group. Why that would make a difference, we can't imagine. Apparently, neither could Jeff Smulyan. RBR/TVBR said 1.1-1.2 right from the get-go. We were on the high side then, but now look to be conservative.

RBR observation:
Emmis sale is good news
for Susquehanna
Wall Street may be down on broadcasting stocks, radio in particular, but phase one of the Emmis TV sell-off shows that there is still strong demand for good broadcast properties. Three public companies, LIN, Journal and Gray, were willing to bid strong to win properties that might never again become available - - beating the private guys and wannabes backed by new equity money. Somebody thinks there's still value in broadcast cash flow. Back when Susquehanna Media announced that it was putting its properties up for sale, RBR/TVBR said 1.2 billion would be a bidding floor for the radio properties and 600 million for the cable systems. Based on the strong demand for the Emmis TV stations, and with more information about the Susquehanna radio properties, we are now ratcheting up that prediction. It appears that Susquehanna Radio has 120 million, more or less, in broadcast cash flow. At a 12 times multiple, that's 1.4 billion plus. And since the Susquehanna group has three markets in the top 10 and Atlanta, THE market that everyone else wants to get into or grow in, a total sale in the 1.5-2 billion range looks more likely. As for the cable TV side, 600 million still looks like a solid base, but demand is strong. Bids are due next month (8/22/05 RBR #164).

Jack attack: How the format is weathering
Bridge Ratings has made a special study of the growing pains of the relatively new Jack FM format. It took an interesting approach - - looking not at how the format is doing in relation to the general radio universe, but rather how it's doing among those listeners who signed on and adopted it as their favorite format. Core findings: Listenership is steady-to-slightly down, variety is key, and spotload isn't seen as a problem. Bridge took 1.5K 25-54 adults who call Jack their fave as a basis for the study. To determine how it's holding up against the test of time, they sliced thinner, looking at 35-44 listeners of nine months standing. 10% have increased listening and 67% are listening about the same amount, with 23% listening less. The study used stations in Denver, Dallas, Phoenix, Austin, Kansas City and Jackson MS. Bridge also ranked the appeal of various format elements on a scale of 1-10. Music genre variety was key, scoring an impressive 9.4. The lack of talk almost hit the nine threshold, scoring 8.9. Hearing familiar music was important (8.1), but so was being surprised (7.6). Some like the absence of announcers (6.2) and the lack of news/info elements (5.9). A key fact, as Bridge's Dave Van Dyke points out, is that all of these elements score higher than the perception that spot loads are lessened. That element scored only a 5. And the presence of long, uninterrupted blocks of music received the lowest value of all elements, at 3.9.

Interesting point
from the Village Voice
The Village Voice reminds us that it's been quite awhile since the FCC took an enforcement action on the payola front. The last fines - - a pair of 4K assessments over a Bryan Adams song - - came down way back in 1998. VV notes that FCC Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein, who has claimed payola and the related issues of pay-for-say and undisclosed product placement into his own pet projects, was able to generate enough noise to prod Chairman Kevin Martin into at least cursory action. So far, the FCC has put out a "fact sheet" and essentially deputized America, telling broadcast viewers and listeners to be sure and report any malfeasance on the payola front to the Commission for possible investigation and punitive action. However, VV finds a critical problem with this approach. Said Douglas Wolk, "The reason payola of any kind is wrong is that you can't tell when you're hearing it - - when what's supposed to be programming, on airwaves that belong to the public, is actually advertising." Are audience members, when confronted with inferior programming, supposed to speculate that it's so bad that there must be a pay-off involved somewhere to get it on the air? Wolk concludes, "A lot of stuff gets lost when you send it to the FCC. Wink wink."

RBR observation: A lot of stuff certainly has been lost at the FCC when it comes to the leading citizen complaint category: indecency. The FCC's former standard for taking action required that the complainants submit a tape or transcript as evidence. As has been pointed out many times, few commuters have a tape going in the car on their way to work, and nobody is sitting in the car taking dictation to create a transcript when objectionable material hits the airwaves. Although dedicated airwave watchdogs like Parents Television Council have taken on that task, the payola posse will face new challenges due to the murky nature of the crime. It will even be troublesome on the placement front - - who's going to sit through the mile-a-minute agate-type closing credits to see if Acme did or did not pay to have Wile E. Coyote use its fine products?

Let's go Krogering...with our PPM
Arbitron reports that Kroger, the nation's largest grocery chain, will encode in-store audio at 100 of its stores for the Houston test of the Portable People Meter (PPM). Beginning in September, the stores will use audio programming from In-Store Broadcasting Network, which provides an in-store music service and broadcast advertising network for Kroger in Houston. The audio programming will be embedded with unique PPM identification codes supplied by Arbitron. These codes are inaudible and can only be detected by a PPM. When an Arbitron PPM survey participant enters one of these retail outlets, the Portable People Meter will detect the codes and report that the individual has been exposed to its in-store audio programming. "By adding PPM codes to Kroger's in-store audio in Houston, we'll be able to demonstrate how the PPM can gauge the store traffic that advertising generates. Without asking the a PPM survey participant to do anything additional, we would be able to measure the retail visits as easily as we measure the audience that is exposed to the stations that carry the advertising for the retailer. This will enable PPM to provide powerful measures of return on investment and accountability by correlating local media exposure with retail store traffic," said Pierre Bouvard, President, Portable People Meters at Arbitron. Kroger is not the first retailer to participate in the PPM test. Best Buy, Gap, Gallery Furniture, National CineMedia and Old Navy are already participating.

100% turnout for Entravision tender
You don't often see this - - 100% of the holders of Entravision's 8.125% senior subordinated notes due 2009 submitted them under the tender announced by the company to buy them back (8/11/05 RBR #157). That's 225 million bucks worth. Payment is now scheduled for September 21st.

Adbiz©

Viacom strikes advertising and web search agreement with Yahoo!
Viacom has entered into a multi-year search marketing and web search distribution agreement with Yahoo!, where it will provide multiple search marketing and search services to Viacom's online properties, including BET.com, CBSNews.com, CMT.com, MTV.com, NickJr.com, SHO.com and VH1.com. Through Yahoo! Search, Viacom will be able to provide users with comprehensive site and web search results. At the same time, Yahoo!'s search marketing products will allow Viacom to enhance its sites with relevant advertising and enable marketers to reach visitors at Viacom's online properties who are searching for their products and services. Sponsored Search from Yahoo! Search Marketing lists targeted, text-based ads in search results. Content Match complements the Sponsored Search program by displaying site listings alongside relevant articles, product reviews and more. CBSNews.com and BET.com currently feature Sponsored Search listings, Content Match contextual advertising listings, as well as site and Web search powered by Yahoo! Search. In addition, CMT.com, MTV.com, SHO.com and VH1.com display Sponsored Search listings and Content Match. NickJr.com also features Content Match. Content from CBS News, CMT: Country Music Television and MTV is also available on Yahoo!'s Video Search, a tool that directs users to free online video content.

DISH Network effort to re-name a town
EchoStar Communications' DISH Network announced a unique effort, the "DISH City Makeover," whereby it will provide free programming for 10 years to all households in the first U.S. municipality willing to change its name legally and permanently to "DISH." "As part of DISH Network's re-branding efforts and new advertising campaign trumpeting 'Better TV for All,' we invite a city or town to join us by re-branding itself DISH," said EchoStar President Michael Neuman. A town of 1,000 households, for example, would receive approximately 4 million worth of free programming, equipment and installation. To participate, the town government must agree to change the name legally and permanently on government buildings, post offices, official letterhead, schools and hospitals if applicable, street signs where necessary, and any other government signage that contains the city or town's name. The municipality must also file all necessary state and federal documentation. Submissions must be sent to [email protected] for approval by 11/1.

Rich Hamilton takes leave of absence
Rich Hamilton, Zenith Optimedia Americas CEO, is taking an immediate leave of absence for personal reasons and will be replaced by the agency's chief strategy officer Tim Jones, without the responsibility for Canada and Latin America. Jones reports to Steve King, CEO of ZenithOptimedia Worldwide. As part of the shift, Wendy Marquardt, Director of Information Technology Development, has been upped to COO at Zenith Media. Zenith President/National Broadcast Peggy Green will become President/Broadcast and Entertainment there as well.

Feinberg on Stern rate

Matt Feinberg, SVP/National Radio, Zenith Media Services, had a few comments on a story we ran yesterday regarding Sirius asking for similar rates on Howard Stern's upcoming satellite broadcast as terrestrial radio (8/23 RBR #165): "There are a few national advertisers in his show now-this will actually attract more of them because he will be purely national with Sirius. The question becomes though, what's the audience? I don't know."

| More Q&A |

RBR observation: Would current local advertisers really have to drop the show when it moves to Sirius? What would the harm be if someone hearing the show live in LA heard a local NYC ad? Maybe that's the plan, and there's no law against it.

CBS and GoldPocket Wireless
launch Big Brother 6 effort
GoldPocket Wireless, a provider of mobile technologies for entertainment and media companies, is powering a fully integrated mobile campaign for the latest installment of CBS's hit reality show, "Big Brother." Featuring both text messaging-based voting and downloadable wireless applications related to the show, the aptly named "America's Choice" campaign allows wireless subscribers to participate in events that will, alter the final outcome of the show ... namely who walks home with the 500,000 prize. The latest America's Choice vote will be announced by host Julie Chen during the 8/25 broadcast. Viewers will be informed of the outcome of the vote on the 8/ 30 episode. GoldPocket provides both the direct connections to the major wireless carriers and the content management platform underlying the campaign. CBS is also utilizing GoldPocket Wireless's WAP push technology to sell viewers exclusive mobile content tied to the show.

Media Markets & MoneyTM

Davis Media scores a Bullseye
Thomas G. Davis is heading up a consortium of buyers which is getting its second FM on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay in Virginia. It'll send 850K to Sherry L. Campana, executor for Bullseye Broadcasting Inc. in exchange for WSRV-FM Deltaville. The town is situated at the mouth of the Rappahannock River, where it empties into the Bay. Davis Media's other station in the area is WTYD-FM West Point - - that town is one river to the south, along the York about halfway between Richmond and Newport News in the Tidewater area. As things stand, the two stations have minimal overlap, but that will change once WTYD gets a new approval to coverage related to a CP moving the station a bit to the west. Davis's group, which counts among its members a musical star - - Bruce Hornsby, and a national media broker, Star Media's Doug Ferber - - will pay 450K by closing day and finish off its obligation with a 400k note. The terms also include a highly unusual non-competition agreement, unusual in that it is not directed at the seller. Envest Media's Mitt Younts brokered the deal, and is named in the non-compete clause. Younts has agreed to leave Davis's advertisers, suppliers and employees unmolested, and will not induce any area radio stations to use "any of the intellectual property, programming and promotional rights conveyed to Buyer pursuant to this Agreement." Well, maybe it's not all that unusual after all - - according to documents filed at the FCC, Younts has a 25% stake in the seller.

Close encounter in Cincinnati and environs
Cincinnati Classical Public Radio has now officially doubled its presence in the Queen City and added a network of small town repeaters. Brokers Greg Guy and Larry Patrick of Patrick Communications tell us that the i's have been dotted and the t's crossed in the 15M deal transferring the seven station set to CCPR from Xavier University. CCPR's flagship WGUC-FM is now joined by WVXU-FM Cincinnati, along with Ohio stations WVXW-FM West Union & WVXC-FM Chillicothe; Michigan stations WVXM-FM Manistee, WVXH-FM Harrison & WVXA-FM Rogers City; and Indiana station WVXR-FM Richmond.

Washington Beat

NAB wants to head off LPFM interference
The National Association of Broadcasters would like the FCC to keep the intrusion of low power FM on existing full power stations to the minimum allowed by law. It further argues that in rare instances when an LPFM is supplanted by a new or upgraded full power FM, that the LPFM be transplanted rather than causing spectrum interference. It suggests giving the affected LPFM priority status in finding an alternate frequency, without having to go through procedures such as opening an application window. NAB says that thus far this has been a rare occurrence - - in fact, a one-time occurrence to date. NAB also asks that the FCC not freeze potential new FM translators out of existence to keep spectrum open for the possibility of new LPFMs. It notes that the two services have different purposes and should be allowed to thrive as much as possible alongside one another.

Programming

ABCRN's McIver
named radio exec of the year
Willie Mae McIver, the National Program Director for ABC Radio Networks' 24-hour Gospel music format Rejoice! Musical Soul Food, has been named Radio Executive of the Year by the National Association of Black Female Executives in Music and Entertainment (NABFEME). The honor was awarded to McIver during a ceremony on 8/19, as part of the NABFEME 2005 International Women's Leadership Summit, held in Chicago from August 17-21.

Ratings & Research

PPM tracks Z-100 podcasts
Arbitron recently demonstrated its Portable People Meter system has the ability to track audiences who listen to podcasts. During the week of July 18, Arbitron encoded several podcasts by Clear Channel's WHTZ-FM (Z-100) New York, that were uploaded to the podcast portion of Apple's iTunes Music Store. The Z100 podcasts were then downloaded to an MP3 player and played over headsets using the PPM headset adapter. The PPM detected and recorded the unique ID codes that were embedded in the MP3 files.

RBR observation: In theory, the PPM devices being used for the current test in Houston could measure podcasts - - but don't look for it to happen. Panelists have been given headset cords for their PPMs, but only told to use them if they're listening to broadcasts. Also, no one is encoding podcasts anyway - - yet.

Engineering

Podcasting: can it make money?
Part III
CBS Radio News now provides many programs to its affiliates for podcasting or station website use. CBSNews.com currently features audio from CBS Radio News' "Harry Smith Reporting", and tech guru Larry Magid. CBS radio stations will access the podcast material via an affiliate website. Programming will include regularly scheduled programs and features, as well special in-depth series. Podcasting programs include "The CBS Weekend Roundup;" "What's in the News;" "Wired Magazine;" "Entertainment Report with People magazine's Lisa Karlin;" and "Larry Magid's Tech Report," among others. ABC Radio Networks' "Hannity Insider" the monthly subscription service available at www.Hannity.com offers listeners daily podcasts that can be downloaded directly to an MP3 player or iPod. | More... |

Transactions

900K WADW-FM Pickford MI from Starboard Media Foundation Inc. (Mark C. Follett) to Northern Star Broadcasting LLC (Palmer Pyle, Wade Fetzer, Charles F. Knight, Albert Suter, Lester Knight, George Atkinson, Lou Smith, Chris Monk). 90K earnest money, balance in cash at closing. [File date 7/14/05.]

236K KXLX-AM Spokane WA (Airway Heights WA) from James E. and Helen G. Stargel to QueenB Radio Inc. (Elizabeth M. Burns, Stephen R. Herling et al). Note. KXLY-TV, KXLY AM & FM, KEZE-FM, KZZU-FM, KVNI-AM & KHTQ-FM. QueenB is selling KXLI-AM. [File date 7/14/05.]

Stock Talk

Stocks drop as home sales drop
Stock prices dropped on Tuesday as the National Association of Realtors reported a July drop in home sales. The Dow Industrials were off 50 points, or 0.5%, to 10,520.

Radio stocks were mostly lower. The Radio Index declined 1.248, or 0.6%, to 206.706. Although most stocks were down, there weren't any big losers. SBS fell 2.2% and Radio One was down 1.5%.

Radio Stocks

**Here's how stocks fared on Tuesday**
Company	Symbol	Close		Change	Company	Symbol	Close		Change
Arbitron	ARB		42.47	-0.31	Jeff-Pilot	JP		49.64	-0.14
Beasley	BBGI		13.86	-0.13	Journal Comm.	JRN		15.95	-0.04
Citadel	CDL		13.72	+0.11	Radio One, Cl. A	ROIA		14.28	-0.21
Clear Channel	CCU		33.59	-0.42	Radio One, Cl. D	ROIAK		14.31	-0.21
Cox Radio	CXR		15.00	-0.18	Regent	RGCI		5.49	unch
Cumulus	CMLS		12.44	-0.16	Saga Commun.	SGA		13.82	unch
Disney	DIS		25.80	+0.07	Salem Comm.	SALM		18.84	+0.27
Emmis	EMMS		23.51	-0.07	Sirius Sat. Radio	SIRI		6.52	-0.01
Entercom	ETM		33.03	-0.22	Spanish Bcg.	SBSA		7.65	-0.17
Entravision	EVC		7.95	-0.01	Univision	UVN		26.58	-0.22
Fisher	FSCI		45.53	+0.36	Viacom, Cl. A	VIA		34.60	-0.16
Gaylord	GET		44.45	-0.53	Viacom, Cl. B	VIAb		34.47	-0.21
Hearst-Argyle	HTV		25.65	-0.18	Westwood One	WON		20.35	-0.25
Interep	IREP		0.59	unch	XM Sat. Radio	XMSR		33.42	-0.01
International Bcg.	IBCS		0.01	unch	-	-	-	-	-

Bounceback

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Arbitrends

Radio Media Moves

Wade renews with Z100
Mid-day personality Shelley Wade has signed a new multi-year contract with Clear Channel's WHTZ-FM "Z100" New York. Wade, a Houston native, has been on Z100 since July 2001.

Two upped in Tenn.
Clear Channel Radio has promoted Director of Sales Bruce Welker to Market Manager in Cookeville, TN and Station Manager/LSM Bryan Kell to General Manager in McMinnville/Sparta, TN.

Andersen to ADG
Mark Andersen, OM/PD of CC Radio's WKST-FM Pittsburgh and CHR Brand Manager, will be joining Audience Development Group as Director of Contemporary formats, effective November 1st.

Stations for Sale

Suburban NYC AM
Good population coverage. Comes with studio/transmitter site. Fulltime station w. low night power, upgrade possible. 1.6M. 781-848-4201
[email protected]

International

Viacom eyeing UK buy?
The Financial Times reports that Viacom has entered the bidding for Flextech, the content division of UK cable operator Telewest. Flextech owns the cable channels Living TV and Bravo. Numerous reports say Flextech is expected to bring one billion British pounds (1.8 billion bucks, US). Telewest is out to sell Flextech before completing its 5.5 billion pounds merger with NTL, another cable system owner.

August Digital Magazine
Now Available

Media Business Report '06
Where will the Brand Dollars Land?

GM Talkback
Podcasting focus. Views from:
WAMU-FM -Caryn Mathes
WMAL- Chris Berry - And others

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RBR Radar 2005

Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Emmis kicks off TV sell-off
It's nine down and seven to go after Emmis inked three separate deals in its sell-off of TV assets. 681M will change hands between Emmis and trading partners LIN TV, Journal Communications and Gray Television. It would appear that Jeff Smulyan's prediction that Emmis would better its 1B target payday is on track. The biggest haul goes to LIN. RBR observation: 2004 revenues for the nine stations amounted to some 152.1M dollars. The total for the remaining seven is just about at par with that - - a little better, actually, at 154.7M. If Smulyan can turn them into another 700M give or take, he will significantly beat the 1B target for the group, just as he predicted. He may do even better - - the group's beachfront properties in terms of market size remain on the table, along with true duopolized beachfront property in Hawaii's biggest city. In any case, Smulyan will have no problem paying down debt from the company's recent stock buyback - - and perhaps be back in the market for a major radio acquisition. 08/23/05 RBR #165

RBR observation:
Emmis stations selling for top dollar
RBR/TVBR's estimate since May that the Emmis TV group should bring 1.1-1.2 billion - - which was above many Wall Street estimates - - is beginning to look conservative. It looks like 1.2 is in the bag and 1.3 is a possibility.
08/23/05 RBR #165

Journal must divest radio in Omaha
One deal begets another. In order to acquire an Omaha TV station from Emmis, Journal Communications must sell two, or possibly three, of its eight radio stations in the market. The number isn't clear yet, Journal officials say, because they have to calculate how many independent "voices" will remain in the market as judged under the FCC's new ownership rules. RBR observation: We would also note that the sale of WTHI-TV Terre Haute, IN to LIN doesn't include WTHI-FM & WWVR-FM. Since Terre Haute is by far Emmis' smallest radio market - - Arbitron #202 - - we wouldn't be surprised to see a sale there at some future date. 08/23/05 RBR #165

Sirius wants top dollar
for Stern inventory
Asking pretty much the same rate for live reads on its upcoming Howard Stern Show as is currently garnered by terrestrial radio - - with a considerably lower audience. Sirius sales execs are currently feeling the marketplace with media buyers. One buyer reported being pitched a 20,000 price tag for a live read on Stern's new show; another suggested the fee was a bit lower. The 20,000 fee is close to what it currently costs to advertise on Stern's current show, sold through Infinity Broadcasting. RBR observation: For the most part, mainstream advertisers are not into Howard Stern. Stern sells very well, but it's all peripheral, non-publicly-traded companies. The main money for Stern is going to come from subscriptions. Advertising dollars will just be icing on the cake. If they don't make the money back on the subscription side, they're dead - - dead." 08/23/05 RBR #165

Arbitron council moves ahead on PPM, reorganization
The real excitement will be next month (9/20), when Arbitron releases the first station-level data from its PPM test in Houston. Early data from May-June mirrors "fairly closely what we saw in the Philadelphia - TSLs are down, CUMEs up, morning drive down, other dayparts up. But that data for the 18-24 Demo was still a problem - - even with cell-only households in the sample.
RBR observation: Basic data on Cume Up means people are testing radio but with TSL down radio is not holding their attention long enough to build the quarter hour. RBR would have to examine the Houston data ourselves for a clearer picture but to point a finger at Cox and Radio One not participating is not totally relevant as it is only a test. Only suggestion is do not stop the progress forward like some in TV are attempting to do and even get congress involved with Nielsen's LPM, and stay in the diary world as the real world is driven by the consumers need and want for techie devices. 08/22/05 RBR #164

Lawsuit says CCU hijacked Jack
SparkNet Communications is going after Clear Channel, charging it with cybersquatting and trademark infringement. SparkNet says it is the creator and rights-holder for the new Jack FM Format, and it's heading into a San Diego federal court to challenge Clear Channel's alleged trespass. The suit, filed by law firm Newman & Newman LLP, also alleges unfair competition, trademark dilution and violation of business & professional codes.
RBR observation: Today's rules and laws are not like the old days of "Alice" stations, or the old "Turn your knob to Bob" Country as one time the word common law trademarks were not heard of and internet was not around. Today, it is a different matter as this much we do know from first hand experience - cybersquatting and or trademark infringement and common law trademark infringements are illegal. If you are unsure you are best to consult a knowledgeable copyright / internet legal mind. As the Internet arbitrators do not sit kindly on squatting or stealing ones in use identity. Internet and trademark law differs from Judge Judy.
08/22/05 RBR #164

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