Welcome to RBR's Daily Epaper
Volume 24, Issue 234, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
Monday Morning December 3rd, 2007

Radio News ®

Uh oh:
Another downsized forecast

BMO Capital Markets analyst Leland Westerfield has knocked the overall ad spending projection for 2007 from growth of 3.4% to 2.6%, and he's taking 2008 growth down from 4.3% to 3.6%. The outlook for 2009 is even worse, at 2.7%. He says there are eerie similarities to the dot.com bust of 2000-2001. Westerfield says the culprit in 2008 may well be "the unwinding of 'overinvestment' among many financial service advertisers in recent years, what amounts to a correction of an advertising demand-imbalance. That theme rings eerily familiar to the 2000/2001 period, when the unwinding of dot.com and telecom categories of advertising led to the advertising recession."

Radio: BMO sees not so much a downward spiral as a downward angled plane, with a -1.8% loss this year, another -1.8% loss next year and a -1.7% loss in 2009. Spot TV is expected to continue its election year pendulum swings while veering downward, finishing 2007 at -2.7%, riding the major national elections to a +9.2% gain in 2008, then giving much of that back in 2009 with a -6.3% drop. Broadcast networks are expected to follow a muted version of that same pattern, with a scant +0.1% gain in 2007, a +6.2% gain in 2008 and a -1.4% loss in 2009.

Cable and Outdoor: Will fare better if BMO is correct. Cable will stay in the black with gains of +3.3% this year followed by +3.6% and +4.2%. Outdoor's numbers are even better, at +7%, +4.7% and +7%.

The big gainer? If you said Internet, Don Rickles might award you a cookie. Its numbers are predicted at +24.2%, +19.6% and +30%.

The big loser? If you said newspaper, help yourself to another cookie. Its red record is set at -5.3%, -4.5% and -6.2%.

RBR observation: If this was a Dickens novel we might have some recourse from these ominous forebodings from the Ghost of Things Yet to Come by repairing our wicked ways. The problem is there seems to be an entire platoon of these ghosts running around, intoning pretty much the same thing. All we can say is make sure you're tight with your local community, be kind to your local politicians, and try to get your fork into that burgeoning slice of pie on the Internet plate.

Publisher note: The RBR/TVBR website entry into the global internet world will appear in Jan. 2008 as all know by now RBR/TVBR has gone completely electronic but if you missed it see 10/29/07 RBR #211

Tribune gets thumbs up from FCC
Tribune announced the FCC has approved the transfer of its broadcasting licenses and the extension of its cross-ownership waivers for two years or up to six months in markets where it owns both a TV station and a newspaper. The approval gives Tribune the thumbs up for a sale to a Sam Zell-led Employee Stock Ownership/Option Plan. Tribune's going-private transaction is expected to close by year. When the transaction closes, Zell's investment in the company will increase to 315 million and he will become chairman of the board. Tribune also asked for an extension of existing waivers of the FCC's cross-ownership rule in New York, LA, Hartford and South Florida-markets where it operates both a newspaper and TV station. The waivers are temporary, pending the outcome of the FCC's ongoing review of media ownership rules. In Chicago, the company will be exempt from cross-ownership restrictions through a permanent waiver provision.

Washington week in review
We're you stranded on a tropical island last week? Lucky dog -- we should be so lucky. But no, we were here staying on top of broadcast-related developments in Washington. Here's a thumbnail sketch of what you missed.

* FCC Chairman Kevin Martin got his vote on Friday (see above story) granting Tribune cross-ownership waivers for two years or up to six months after all cross-ownership proceedings are concluded, at least in its top 20 markets (which may or may not mean excluding Hartford).

* The FCC backed off plans to address the many issues pertaining to the Third Circuit remand of media ownership rules, particularly in regard to increasing ownership among socially disadvantaged businesses; and also backed off new regulation for cable companies pending further study.

* It did take steps to promote LPFM and is studying the adoption of even more steps, and it set new public interest/localism reporting requirements for television stations.

* Both Congressional Commerce Committees set up oversight hearings, with the House pegged for 12/5/07 and the Senate on 12/13/07.

* The Commission's open meeting on 12/18/07 is expected to feature a vote on Martin's plan to end print/broadcast cross-ownership restrictions in the top 20 markets, an event Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) will try to head of at the pass with a bill being mark-up up in committee tomorrow, 12/4/07, which would delay the event until at least next May.

Sillerman has his ducks in a row
Credit crunch or no credit crunch, Robert F.X. Sillerman has lined up the financing so he and Simon Fuller can buy out the public shareholders of CKX Inc. and build up its entertainment and licensing businesses under the name 19X (19 Entertainment was Fuller's company that merged with CKX). The deal announced in May (6/1/07 RBR #107) would pay shareholders 13.75 per share, or a total of 1.3 billion. CKX shareholders will also get shares in another Sillerman-related company which is planning a casino/hotel/commercial/residential real estate development in Las Vegas.

Bear Stearns analyst Christopher Ensley notes that the details of the financing plans have now been filed with the SEC. "CKX disclosed financing commitments that consist of: 1) 450M in 1st lien loans; 2) 200M in 2nd lien loans; 3) 200M in unsecured notes or Sr. pref. stock offered issued by 19X; and 4) 750M in equity financing (200M in equity from CKX management and 550M of preferred stock from 3rd parties). Credit Suisse and Deutsche Bank will provide the loans, while Merrill Lynch will arrange and distribute most (350M) of the preferred stock," Ensley said in a note. The analyst had expected a late Q1 2008 closing, but notes that the financing commitments allow for a potential Q2 closing. CKX owns the rights to "American Idol" and the name, likeness and image of Elvis Presley and Muhammad Ali.

RBR News Analysis
Exxing out Exxon, thinking about XM
We fired Exxon last week. And the story gives a perfect illustration of why satellite audio services XM and Sirius should not be allowed to merge into a monopoly. Here's the reason we gave the money-grubbing morons at Exxon their walking papers: After at least 17 years using their credit card and buying their gas for two automobiles, we paid a bill one day late. One day. The same imbeciles who paid that Jabba-the-Hut CEO guy hundreds of millions of dollars just to retire apparently couldn't survive for a whole day without our 100-dollar plus check. So not only did they hit us with a 29 dollar late fee, they also tacked on about 2.50 more to finance this momentous transaction.

So that's how they treat loyal long-term customers. We're not taking that kind of crap. We immediately tore up our cards, called them up and fired them. They have our extra 32.50, but they can now try to get along without our one-hundred-plus dollar monthly check in perpetuity. We can take this action, too, because even though there do not seem to be as many companies selling gasoline now as when I was a kid (consolidation is everywhere), there are still plenty of options. So here's our question. If we subscribe to XM, or Sirius, and we decide we want to leave for whatever reason, but they've been allowed to merge, what's our recourse?

The answer is there is no recourse. There is no other way to get 100+ channels of professionally programmed material, available in our car no matter where we drive. Neither AM-FM radio, nor a laptop computer, nor an iPod, nor anything else we can think of can even come close to filling that role if we decide to fire the merged entity. The only thing regulatory agencies should be demanding is that XM and Sirius make interoperable receivers available the way they were supposed to in the first place, and perhaps put some limits on the term of subscriptions so consumers have meaningful ability to move from one to the other.

RBR Note: But merge? That should be completely out of the question.

Ad Business Report TM

Savage launches
lawsuit against CAIR

Michael Savage is fighting back, filing a copyright infringement lawsuit against the Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), accusing it of being a "political vehicle of international terrorism" that seeks to do "material harm to those voices who speak against the violent agenda of CAIR's clients." The lawsuit, filed in U.S. District Court in California, seeks damages equal to the ongoing donations from CAIR supporters "who expect CAIR to act in this manner in exchange for continuing financial support" as well as "actual damages according to proof," according to a World Net Daily Story. The focal point of the lawsuit is a series of audio clips CAIR has been using in its promotions and fundraising efforts from Savage's show that include criticisms of Islam and Muslims.

""The copyright material properly viewed is a scream of outrage on behalf of the American public against beheadings, hangings of homosexuals, mutilation of women, the torture of rape victims and the thought that CAIR and other groups are trying to import these atrocities into American life," the lawsuit said. However, it claimed CAIR has misappropriated the copyright material and reconfigured it in order to generate funds for its operations, despite being warned that its use was a copyright infringement." Ibrahim Hooper, communications director for CAIR, told WND the group would not comment on the action until the document had been reviewed. CAIR has so far been successful in getting a handful of advertisers to drop Savage's show, including OfficeMax and Citrix Systems, however, ACT for America (actforamerica.org) has launched an alert suggesting folks call advertisers to encourage the company to reverse their decision.

Media Business Report TM
Entravision looking to peddle billboards
Multimedia Hispanic operator Entravision sells advertising on radio, on television and on billboards, but maybe not for much longer in the latter category. It has retained Citi and Moelis Advisors, part of Mercanti Securities, to help it explore strategic options with its billboard group. It has about 10.4K faces mainly in the New York and Los Angeles markets. The billboard wing of the company operates as Vista Media.

Media Markets & Money TM
Entravision looks to cross-own in Orlando
Hispanic broadcaster Entravision has an agreement in place to acquire WNUE-FM in the Orlando FL market. The Mega Communications station will join a Univision station Entravision owns in the market, and a Telefutura station it operates. The price for the station, which Mega already has in a Spanish language format, is 24M. The O&O television station WVEN-TV 26; WOTF-TV 43 is actually owned by Univision. Entravision says this will be the 11th market in which they combine radio and television properties.

Close encounter in Coastal Carolina
Educational Media Foundation has gone just about as far East as it can get in its latest expansion from its California roots. According to Media Services Group broker George Reed, the noncom Religious group has closed on its acquisition of WWTB-FM in Swansboro NC, part of the Greenville-New Bern-Jacksonville market. The price was 900K.

Bicoastal closes on two CC stations in WA
Bicoastal Media has closed on the sale of radio stations KELA-AM, KMNT-FM, Centralia, Washington from Clear Channel. Bicoastal is a California-based company headed by Kenneth Dennis. Bicoastal also owns stations in Oregon, California, and Washington. Kalil & Co. was the exclusive broker.

Frontier Capital scoops up CC stations in CA, AZ
The deal for CC stations to Frontier Capital Partners (Jason Wolff) in California and Arizona, including:

* KSLY-FM, KVEC-AM San Luis Obispo, CA
* KSTT-FM Los Osos-Baywood Park, CA
* KURQ-FM Grover Beach, CA
* KSMY-FM Lompoc, CA
* KATJ-FM George, CA
* KIXA-FM Lucerne Valley, CA
* KIXW-FM, KZXY-FM Apple Valley, CA
* KRSX-FM Yermo, CA
(Kalil & Co. also brokered)

here is another transaction brokered by Kalil & Co., Inc.

Washington Business Report TM
Will FCC put placement in its place?
Advertisers are increasingly trying to weave their products into the sets and storylines of broadcast entertainment, to combat ad skipping via channel surfing and DVR-enabled ad skipping. The increased use of the technique is leading to an FCC inquiry, with a possible kick-off at the 12/18/07 Open Meeting. Several stealth advertising techniques, also including the use of critics/experts to demonstrate and/or tout products by arrangement and for compensation; video or audio news releases promoting a product or viewpoint without disclosure, or pay-for-say arrangements with broadcast hosts, have all come under fire in recent years, and the topic has become a pet issue for Commissioner Jonathan Adelstein (D). According to reports, Chairman Kevin Martin (R) will use the next open meeting to kick off a study on updating disclosure requirements.

Entertainment Business Report TM
Take Back Your Life scores 25 affiliates
Let's Talk Recovery announced "Take Back Your Life with Life Coach Brad Watson" debuted nationally 12/1 on 25 stations including KSBN AM 1230 in Spokane, WA; KSEV-AM Houston; KVCE-AM Dallas; and WBIX Boston. While not separately listed on station program guides, the short format talk show airs instead as a "stand alone" spot within another national show.

Internet Business Report TM
Best Buy upgrades sites, targets Hispanics
Best Buy is making significant changes online and to its 900 stores, launching an extended return policy, the addition of customer assistants, an improved website, an increased selection of gift cards, shortened transaction times and targeted Hispanic initiatives. Best Buy has reassigned 30% of its sales floor labor to a new cross-trained Customer Assistant position, allowing for deeper personal interaction with customers during peak times. BestBuy.com/espanol, launched in November, offers bilingual content on more than 12,000 products, including service plans and gift cards. Best Buy is also making the research process easier by enhancing its Web site, including the addition of customer reviews and an expanded home theater guided selection tool.

CNN-YouTube GOP Debate
scores record 4.49 million viewers

CNN's YouTube Republican debate Wed. night a record 4.49 million viewers-the most-watched primary debate in cable history. According to Nielsen live-plus-same-day data, the debate beat CNN's previous record of 4.07 million viewers, on 11/15 with the most recent Democratic showdown. The YouTube format allows viewers to submit video questions to the candidates. Nielsen calculations say the debate scored 1.3 million adults 18-49 and 516,000 of 18-34 viewers. Some 38 YouTube video queries were aired.

Executive Comment
Everybody's got an opinion on ratings these days.
Here's a few more!

Ok, I'm done.....
I have had it, print this or don't...but I want it off my chest. I am just a lowly GM, so much of this PPM/Diary/Sample size debate in the press is well below my "pay grade" as we say in our military town J...but I have a thought to share with everyone who seems to feel like their opinion is so vital to the eventual success or failure of this product. How about everyone just shuts up? While I truly respect all the group heads that have weighted on this, here's a thought. As Frank Boyle said so well in today's RBR, "look in the mirror first." In the mid to late 90's, this product (the diary) was every bit as broken as it is now. However, everyone was making huge money, budgets we're being crushed on an annual basis, so we ALL buried our heads in the sand. "Hey great book.....we know the methodology is about as accurate and reliable as Britney Spears running a day care, but hell, as long as we look good.....

Now remarkably intertwined with the fact that business for the most part, blows almost everywhere, this is a crisis of MONUMENTAL proportions that everyone (and their brother) feels the need to comment publicly in the press and trades. Hey, "breaking news" everyone...we look like idiots right now. Regardless of the points, which in fact, are mostly correct, the advertising buying community thinks we couldn't find our shoes in the dark with both hands, every time they read how screwed up WE'VE allowed our measurement systems to become. We look amateurish, we look dumb and in the process, planners and buyers take their money and say...."radio, not so much". With the Arbitron council meeting next week, how about we let them meet and regardless of our frustrations with the issues, how about we just SHUT up and let them do the job they've been asked to do? Then, please come out with a joint press release that while might have some differences, at least doesn't make our industry look like we're in high school and we can't get the prom date we want. If you're pissed about the current dilemmas with this topic, I'm sure you're in good company, but we look "dumb and dumber" right now.....and that movie has run its course.

Perception IS reality!

Dave Paulus,
President/GM, Saga Communications
Norfolk, VA

PPM vs Diary
It's odd that many in radio are trying to validate the PPM Data by comparing it to diary data. These people screamed for years that the diary was inaccurate. Arbitron disclaims that the diary results are "an opinion of estimates". ---a guess! The PPM is the best advance in the history of radio since the advent of top 40.

Walter Sabo, CEO, Sabo Media

Monday Morning Makers & Shakers

Transactions: 10/15/07-10/19/07
After an excruciatingly slow week, radio trading picked up big time, led by Skip Weller's pick-up of a resold Clear Channel package. Ten other radio transactions landed at the FCC during the week, pushing the total value toward 100M. Television station trading was notable only for its absence.



Total Deals







| Complete Charts |
Radio Transactions of the Week
CCU redo and then some
| More...
TV Transactions of the Week
Dormant for a third week

583M WBTV-TV Charlotte NC (CBS/3); WCSC-TV Charleston SC (CBS/5); and WWBT-TV Richmond VA (NBC/12) from Lincoln Financial Media Company to Raycom Holdings (Paul McTear). Stock transaction. In Richmond, Raycom owns WTVR-TV CBS/6 and has an SSA with WUPV-TV CW/65, most likely requiring a spin-off. [File date 11/19/07.]

600K FM CP Wailea-Makena HI from JER Licenses LLC (Jon E. Robinson) to Hochman Hawaii Publishing Inc. (George Hochman, Elizabeth Bechtel Poorman, William G. Mays). 50K escrow, balance in cash at closing. Seller must return 25% bidding credit to FCC. Duopoly with KONI-FM Lanai City HI. CP is for Class C3 on 96.74 MHz with 5.8 kw @ 679'. [File date 11/13/07.]

320K KKDU-FM El Dorado AR and WLRK-FM Greenville MS from Broadcasting for the Challenged Inc. (George S. Flinn Jr.) to Educational Media Foundation (Richard Jenkins, Mike Novak). 160K cash at closing, 160K note. [File date 11/14/07.]

Stock Talk
A mixed bag
Radio stocks were fairly mixed on Friday, as the Dow closed the week on a good note and the month down 4%. XM was up a healthy 1.86, on news the merger with Sirius may pass DOJ muster soon.

Radio Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Friday

Company Symbol Close Change Company Symbol Close Change




















Journal Comm.







Lincoln Natl.




Citadel CDL
2.30 +0.11

Radio One, Cl. A




Clear Channel




Radio One, Cl. D




Cox Radio












Saga Commun.




Debut Bcg.




Salem Comm.








Sirius Sat. Radio








Spanish Bcg.
















Westwood One








XM Sat. Radio





Send Us Your OpinionsWe want to
hear from you.

This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]

Below the Fold
Executive Comment
Everybody's got an opinion
On ratings these days - Walter Sabo, Dave Paulus, Weigh in on the PPM debate...

RBR Analysis
Exxing out Exxon
Thinking about XM why satellite audio services should not be allowed to merge...

Ad Business Report
Savage launches lawsuit
Against CAIR as Michael is fighting back, filing a copyright infringement lawsuit...

Media Markets & Money
Frontier Capital scoops
Up CC stations in CA, AZ...

Stations for Sale

Dominant 4-station cluster
Heritage AM/FM Combo
Explorer Communications
E-mail: [email protected]

Seller Financing Available
Mississippi FM
Buy or Lease Studios, Tower
Gordon Rice Associates
(843) 884-3590
or E-mail Gordon Rice

Market your Stations For Sale
in our daily epapers.

June Barnes
[email protected]

Radio Media Moves

Debra Huttenberg named BE VP/Development & Marketing
Broadcast Electronics (BE) announced Debra Huttenburg has been appointed Vice President of Business Development and Marketing. She replaces Neil Glassman. Effective today, Huttenburg will oversee BE's international and marketing activities as a key member of the company's management team. Huttenburg was recently VP/GM of the radio business unit for Harris.

More News Headlines

DOJ to approve
XM-Sirius merger
this week?
While it would still require FCC approval, Bear Stearns analyst Robert Peck said Friday in a research note to clients he expected DOJ’s approval of the XM-Sirius merger as soon as today. The note sent both companies' stocks up in Friday trading (see Radio Stocks). The move would likely increase the chances of FCC approval, where a decision is expected sometime this month. Also see our RBR News Analysis today on implications of the merger.

Chris Anderson of Wired Magazine to keynote RAB2008
Chris Anderson, Editor-in-Chief of Wired Magazine will deliver the opening keynote at RAB2008 on 2/12 at the Hyatt Regency, Atlanta. He'll share his perspective on the tremendous business potential in the new "economy of abundance" created by the economic and cultural shift from mass markets to millions of niches....and the rise of the niche to a powerful force.

TVBR - TV News

WGA to mull AMPTP offer; not optimistic
Both sides have agreed to get back to negotiations tomorrow, after WGA has a few days to consider the offer made Thursday by the Alliance of Motion Picture & Television Producers. The proposal would deliver more than 130 million in additional compensation to writers over three years. The WGA issued joint statement from WGA West president Patric Verrone and WGA East president Michael Winship calling the proposal as "a massive rollback." WGA released some of the proposal's details, mentioning their news blackout during negotiations has been lifted. Excerpts: "...for the first three days of this week, the companies presented in essence their 11/4 package with not an iota of movement on any of the issues that matter to writers. For streaming television episodes, the companies proposed a residual structure of a single fixed payment of less than 250 for a year's reuse of an hour-long program (compared to over 20,000 payable for a network rerun). For theatrical product they are offering no residuals whatsoever for streaming. For made-for-Internet material, they offered minimums that would allow a studio to produce up to a 15 minute episode of network-derived web content for a script fee of 1,300 dollars. They continued to refuse to grant jurisdiction over original content for the Internet.

In their new proposal
They made absolutely no move on the download formula (which they propose to pay at the DVD rate), and continue to assert that they can deem any reuse "promotional," and pay no residual (even if they replay the entire film or TV episode and even if they make money). On Wednesday we presented a comprehensive economic justification for our proposals. Our entire package would cost this industry 151 million over three years. That's a little over a 3% increase in writer earnings each year, while company revenues are projected to grow at a rate of 10%. We are falling behind.

Cost Factor
For Sony, this entire deal would cost 1.68 million per year. For Disney 6.25 million. Paramount and CBS would each pay about 4.66 million, Warner about 11.2 million, Fox 6.04 million, and NBC/Universal 7.44 million. MGM would pay 320,000 and the entire universe of remaining companies would assume the remainder of about 8.3 million per year. As we've stated repeatedly, our proposals are more than reasonable and the companies have no excuse for denying it. The AMPTP's intractability is dispiriting news but it must also be motivating. Any movement on the part of these multinational conglomerates has been the result of the collective action of our membership, with the support of SAG, other unions, supportive politicians, and the general public. We must fight on, returning to the lines on Monday in force to make it clear that we will not back down, that we will not accept a bad deal, and that we are all in this together." If the sides don't make serious progress this week, reportedly AMPTP may put it all on hold and start negotiations with the Directors Guild of America, whose contract expires 6/30.

RBR Radar 2007
Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Analysis of Nassau-Suffolk numbers: PPM vs. Diary
Here's a quick take on the Long Island numbers-PPM vs. Diary, based on extrapolations. We have to actually compare the same time periods for PPM vs. Diary. The numbers are interesting, and for many changes, both the PPM and Diary numbers support each other-especially in rankings. The CBS-FM gain we saw in the PPM showed up in the diary monthly as well-especially in the younger demos.

RBR observation: In speaking with industry sources for the LI numbers, some of the negative commentary we got included complaints about the LI 18-34 sample--period. In all of LI, they do not have enough sample of Women 18-34 to break it out. There are fewer than 30. When you have a radio station like WBLI, with not enough 18-34 Women in the sample, it drops like we see above. LI is 120 miles long with quite a few people. The problem with women is they can't wear the PPM device with typical ladies' work attire. And if there isn't enough physical PPM motion for a certain period of time, the sample is rejected. What does that do to TSL?, asked one industry source. These are methodological issues that reduce TSL numbers/results.

RBR note: See the 18-34 and 25-54 comps in this Special RBR report. Plus NYC Fall trends released as RBR has details in this report.
11/30/07 RBR #233

Clear Channel gets
clearance to spin TVs
A 13.7B transaction sending 35 television stations and associated low power properties to Newport Television has been given a conditional go-ahead from the FCC.

TVBR observation: How much control does an equity backer exert on localism in broadcast programming? We'd guess not much, other than to support it because generally it's a good business practice. But with cash in short supply, we'd have to think twice about the ultimate affect on public interest that would follow chasing money out of the business. It Newport/PEP competitors aren't motivated to protest this transaction, we can't muster much enthusiasm to protest it either. Assuming the deal does go to closure, it should in fact offer some opportunity for small and/or minority/female-owned businesses to score a station. But beware, Mr. Copps. They too may need a company similar to PEP to help them do it.
11/30/07 TVBR #233

Tough 2008 in store
That's what Lehman Brothers are saying. They expect gains of 3.7% to 310.8B in total advertising over 2007 (and they think this year will be up 2.6% over last), followed by a gain of 2.8% in 2009. But the 2008 pick-up is expected to skew toward digital platforms and even more, to national over local business. In fact, LB is looking for a 6% increase in national to 182.6B, compared to an mere 0.6% increase in local, to 128.2B. That prediction has predictable results regarding their opinion of radio. LB said, "We remain on the sidelines with radio broadcasters and outdoor advertising companies given their high exposure to local advertising and instead would favor more diversified, defensible businesses that are levered to national advertising and recurring revenue such as large-cap entertainment companies with multiple business segments, such as News Corp. and Time Warner."

RBR observation: One of the key ways we are all going to have to maintain a nourishing diet is to make sure our own associated Internet properties are getting their fair share of the pie. Whether you want to count that money as broadcasting or Internet is immaterial to us. As far as we're concerned, a dollar is a dollar is a dollar.
11/29/07 RBR #232

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