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Upped
in NYC
Jerry Crowley to Vice President and General Manager of Buckley Radio's WOR-AM New York "WOR Radio 710 HD" effective January 1, 2008. Crowley has been with WOR for 13 years, most recently as Vice President and Director of Sales for WOR and the WOR Radio Network. The company also announced the promotion of Jennifer Buckley to Director of Sales and Gregory Bilotta to Local Sales Manager.

Boardroom addition
Citadel Broadcasting Corporation announced that Thomas V. Reifenheiser has been elected to its Board of Directors. He has served as Managing Director and Group Executive for the Global Media and Telecom Group of Chase Securities Inc. He joined Chase in 1963 and was the Global Media and Telecom Group Executive since 1977. Reifenheiser is a director of Lamar Advertising Company, Mediacom Communications Corporation and Cablevision Systems Corporation.

Only one advertiser actually "dropped" Michael Savage
With all of the news lately from CAIR, The Hate Hurts America Community and Interfaith Coalition (HHA) that advertisers have been "dropping" Michael Savage's program like flies, we've heard and confirmed by sources that isn't actually the case. Of all the advertisers reported to have dumped the show in some way, shape or form--Universal Orlando Resorts, AutoZone, Citrix Systems, TrustedID, JCPenney, OfficeMax, Wal-Mart and AT&T-only one actually ever ran in the show and dropped it, Citrix. The rest were already on non-controversial programming lists, which also include Imus, Rush, Howard Stern and Mark Levin. So they've never been in these shows either.

RBR observation: We wonder if newly-signed Lou Dobbs (see related story) with United Stations might suffer similar attacks because of his negative views on immigration.

Goldman Sachs puts "sell" on XM
"We could be wrong," wrote Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Wienkes, should the Department of Justice Antitrust Division soon approves a merger of XM Satellite Radio with rival Sirius, but he thinks most of the merger upside is already figured into the stock. He sees a bigger downside if the merger is nixed, so he has put a "sell" call on XM's stock. Wienkes thinks the stock could move up around three bucks if DOJ gives merger approval, but if there is no deal he thinks the stock could plunge eight bucks. Besides the DOJ, the deal also needs FCC approval and Wienkes thinks Wall Street has not factored in possible conditions that the Commission might impose on the merger, even if it is approved. And he worries about the outcome of the music royalty battle playing out with the Copyright Royalty Board. "With the majority of the upside baked in, we recommend investors sell XMSR, as even with the DOJ approval, the FCC response and CRB ruling are more likely to hurt than help," Wienkes told clients. The analyst already had a "sell" in Sirius Satellite Radio.

CRB establishes new royalty rates for satellite radio performance fees
On 12/3, the Copyright Royalty Board (CRB) issued its determination and order setting the royalty rate payable by XM and Sirius under the statutory license covering the performance of sound recordings over satellite systems for the six-year period starting January 1, 2007 and ending December 31, 2012. Under the terms of the CRB Satellite Radio Services, XM and Sirius will pay a performance license rate of 6.0% of those gross revenues subject to the fees for 2007 and 2008, 6.5% for 2009, 7.0% for 2010, 7.5% for 2011 and 8.0% for 2012.

The revenue that's subject to royalty fees includes subscription revenue from subscribers and ad revenues from channels other than those that use only incidental performances of music. XM and Sirius have 15 days from the 12/3 decision to move for rehearing. Once the CRB has considered any rehearing motions, the Librarian of Congress will publish the final determination in the Federal Register. Parties will have 30 days from that publication to appeal the decision to the U.S. Court of Appeals for DC.

RBR observation: Just think, AM and FM broadcasters, you too could be paying 8% of your revenues to the record labels, if they get their way, in addition to what you already pay to ASCAP, BMI and SESAC.

Coen sees more of the same in 2008
Aside from TV, which stands to gain from political spending and the Olympics in 2008, Universal McCann Sr. VP and Director of Forecasting Bob Coen doesn't see much to get excited about in the coming year. Coen said his original forecasts for 2007 missed the mark because big marketers became more focused on global corporate profits and tightened the reins on ad spending. That trend, he said, will continue in 2008, so he is not expecting to see much growth in ad spending, For 2008, Coen predicts that total US ad spending will be up 3.7% to 294.4 billion bucks, with local barely better than flat and national up 5.5%. In line with his prediction that most types of media will see little change in 2008 over 2007, Coen predicts that national radio ad sales (network and national spot combined) will be up only 1% next year. But that's better than his forecast for local radio, which he forecasts will be flat with 2007.

RBR observation: Here's hoping that Coen doesn't have to revise his estimates sharply downward as he did in 2007 - especially since they aren't all that strong to begin with. Just a little more sputtering of the economy could have radio joining newspapers in having a down year. TV gets a breather in 2008, but absent the elections and Olympics, those forecast numbers wouldn't be impressive either. For a complete Analysis review this report in RBR along with RAB estimates.
12/04/07 RBR #235

The PPM debate grows more heated
Randy Kabrich, Consultant in an Open letter to Dave Paulus, President/GM, Saga Communications, Norfolk, VA - Hey Dave... If your genius of a boss, Steve Goldstein, had paid attention to the people that now look like psychics concerning the pitfalls of what was going on with PPM...if your boss had worked to find out all the details and correct the problems, instead of pushing PPM, with a half dozen others geniuses who will bear this rollout on their legacy, we would not have the embarrassment in the trades you see today.

RBR observation: Ouch, and double ouch. See this special Comment page in RBR.
12/04/07 RBR #235

Uh oh: Another downsized forecast
BMO Capital Markets analyst Leland Westerfield has knocked the overall ad spending projection for 2007 from growth of 3.4% to 2.6%, and he's taking 2008 growth down from 4.3% to 3.6%. Radio: BMO sees not so much a downward spiral as a downward angled plane, with a -1.8% loss this year, another -1.8% loss next year and a -1.7% loss in 2009. Spot TV: Is expected to continue its election year pendulum swings while veering downward, finishing 2007 at -2.7%, riding the major national elections to a +9.2% gain in 2008, then giving much of that back in 2009 with a -6.3% drop. Broadcast networks are expected to follow a muted version of that same pattern, with a scant +0.1% gain in 2007, a +6.2% gain in 2008 and a -1.4% loss in 2009. The big gainer? If you said Internet, Don Rickles might award you a cookie. Its numbers are predicted at +24.2%, +19.6% and +30%. The big loser? If you said newspaper, help yourself to another cookie. Its red record is set at -5.3%, -4.5% and -6.2%.

RBR observation: If this was a Dickens novel we might have some recourse from these ominous forebodings from the Ghost of Things Yet to Come by repairing our wicked ways. The problem is there seems to be an entire platoon of these ghosts running around, intoning pretty much the same thing. All we can say is make sure you're tight with your local community, be kind to your local politicians, and try to get your fork into that burgeoning slice of pie on the Internet plate. 12/03/07 RBR #234

Analysis of Nassau-Suffolk numbers: PPM vs. Diary
Here's a quick take on the Long Island numbers-PPM vs. Diary, based on extrapolations. We have to actually compare the same time periods for PPM vs. Diary. The numbers are interesting, and for many changes, both the PPM and Diary numbers support each other-especially in rankings. The CBS-FM gain we saw in the PPM showed up in the diary monthly as well-especially in the younger demos.
11/30/07 RBR #233

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