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Volume 23, Issue 3, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
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Thursday Morning January 5th, 2006
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Radio News ®
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 Bonneville unites with WaPo,
kisses Rock good-bye
In Washington, Bonneville All-Newser WTOP and Classical WGMS-FM are moving, Modern Rock Z104 is going away and the Washington Post is entering the picture. The broad outline: WTOP moves to WGMS slot, which moves to Z104 slot, while WaPo takes over the abandoned WTOP digs. The main thrust of the move is to put Bonneville's flagship WTOP on the group's strongest Washington signal - - 103.5 mHz. It will also remain on Frederick AM 820 kHz. Washington Post will get WTOP's longtime roost at directional clear AM 1500 kHz, along with its more recently added 107.7 mHz signal, which mainly reaches DC's Virginia suburbs from its Warrenton VA city of license. The WaPo arrangement will be called Washington Post Radio, and the Post staff will provide "in-depth news and analysis" there beginning 3/30/06 under Bonneville's ownership and management (it will also be heard on an FM translator on 104.3, reaching other parts of northern Virginia). Until March, WTOP will simulcast on this entire collection of stations. WGMS-FM abandons 103.5 and takes over the Washington-oriented 104.1 mHz, with a simulcast on 103.9 mHz out of Frederick, which also reaches parts of Montgomery County MD in the northern portion of the DC market. Bonneville is working on a signal upgrade to expand the Frederick station's reach. WGMS will also feature a pair of HD split-stream offerings, one focusing on in-depth Classical music and the other on opera and choral works, which will go by the name Viva La Voce. The only station going on as is will be highly-specialized WFED-AM 1050, aimed at the city's federal workforce.
RBR observation: We thought it odd, particularly in the wake of the exit of WHFS-FM from the Rock wars, that Bonneville would elect to exit the Modern Rock format in order to basically compete with itself in the News arena. Bonneville Washington marketing exec Mary Kay LeMay told RBR that the group will be exiting what is still a stiff battle in the market in the contemporary music arena, citing Clear Channel's WWDC-FM & WIHT-FM, along with ABC/Disney's WRQX-FM. This move is designed to enhance what is already a strength. This happens two ways - - first by giving WTOP a better signal, and second by partnering with one of the premier print news outlets in the country. Meanwhile, the group preserves one of the nation's legendary commercial Classical franchises. Ten years ago, putting an All News station on the FM side pretty much exclusively would have been unthinkable. The fact that it is happening here can be seen as a reflection of changes in the way people get their music these days, and as a small fissure in the symbiotic relationship between radio and the music industry.
| See Bonneville's Washington station flow chart |
 How much growth in 2006? Not much
After her previous comments that she doesn't yet see a light at the end of the tunnel for radio (12/29/05 RBR #252), it's not surprising that Wachovia Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker isn't looking for a lot of growth in 2006. Her forecast is for radio revenues to rise 2.3%. Only one percentage point (100 basis points) is attributable to growth in core business, with the remainder split between Clear Channel - - 80 basis points as it laps a full year of LIM comps - - and political, good for 50 basis points. As for that core growth, Ryvicker sees it coming from "slight increases in advertising rates" - - but says that assumes stable inventory levels. She says that could fall if stations lard up on inventory, but might rise if spot loads are cut further.
RBR observation: 2.3% ain't great, but it's a lot better than the flat showing that radio is almost certain to post for 2005 when the final month is tallied. And we have to admit that 2.3% is a lot more realistic than the 4% growth that Universal McCann's Bob Coen is forecasting for radio in 2006 (12/6/05 RBR #237). Remember back when we were discussing when radio would get back to "normal" growth of around 7% a year? Anyone want to place a bet on what year that's going to happen?
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Thumbs up for CBS Corporation
Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller has wasted no time beginning official coverage of the reborn CBS Corporation, calling it one of the country's "largest content and distribution players." He sees a mixed year ahead in 2006. Miller says CBS and UPN are solid and the O&O TV stations should enjoy CBS' strong ratings, plus better news trends and political advertising. But he sees little growth in syndication and says "Showtime is in transition. CBS Outdoor should healthy domestic markets, but challenges overseas. "CBS Radio is in transition, with 100 million in Howard Stern revenue to replace." And finally, he says the publishing and theme parks businesses are dealing with the realities of their respective industries. Miller sees 53% of 2005 pre-overhead EBITDA coming from TV, 28% from radio, 14% from outdoor and 5% from publishing/parks. The Bear Stearns analyst gave CBS an "Outperform" rating, calling it a value play. If you add up the value of the various parts, he figures CBS is really worth 33-35 bucks a share - - 24-33% higher than its first day close Tuesday on the NYSE.
 Pennsylvania will be
a big-bucks battlefield
One of the headline senatorial races in 2006 will be the battle between incumbent Rick Santorum (R-PA) and Democratic challenger Bob Casey Jr., who is expected to prevail in his party's primary election. Santorum, part of the current Republican leadership hierarchy on Capitol Hill, is high on the Democrat's national hit list, and Casey brings a political resume - - he's currently the state treasurer - - and name recognition - - he's the namesake and son of the late Pennsylvania governor. What both candidates figure to bring to the battle is cash, and lots of it. According to the Associated Press, each is expecting to build a 25M warchest, almost equaling apiece what all candidates spent in the 2002 race won by Arlen Specter (R-PA).
RBR observation: This big swing state features an awesome mix of urban, rural and everything in between. The proper mix of radio and television for each campaign may be a critical factor - - and radio may be especially important if the candidates want to make an impression on people residing in smaller media markets and along the vast open spaces between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh along the I-76 and I-80 corridors.
 Radio's roll looks modest
in Alito airwars
It's open season on SCOTUS nominee Samuel Alito, as far as political watchdog organizations are concerned - - but it looks like most of the action is going to be on the TV side. MoveOn.org is kicking off next week with a national campaign in opposition to confirmation, and will have allies as well as formidable opponents trying to nudge sentiment their way. MoveOn is planning to spend 150K on its nationwide component - - CNN, along with targeted local buys aimed at Republican Judiciary Committee members Lincoln Chaffee (R-RI) and Mike DeWine (R-OH). Another group, People for the American Way, is planning an anti-Alito television campaign, according to USA Today. Pushing in the opposite direction will be pro-Alito Progress for America, which has 500K to spend on cable and targeted states. The Brennan Center for Justice at New York University School of Law and the Justice at Stake Campaign has noted Progress for America as the primary defender of all three recent Bush SCOTUS nominees (12/5/05 RBR #236). USA Today notes two other groups, one on each side, which will be taking a more modest approach - - including trying to wrangle guest spots on radio Talk shows. Liberal Leadership Council on Civil Rights and conservative Focus on the Family will be taking that tack, along with working the phones and the Internet to get their point across.
RBR observation: Can these types of issue campaigns really influence a senator's committee vote? Probably not - - but the interest group campaigns can also be seen as opening salvos in the 2006 election campaign. It is no accident that the senators most frequently targeted for special attention also happen to be up for re-election. One other senator is getting a little extra TLC - - that'd be Arlen Specter (R-PA), the man wielding the gavel of the committee that will decide which gavel Alito gets to wield.
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| Wall Street Media Business Report TM |
2005: Also a tough year for TV stocks
As bad as 2005 was for the radio companies that trade on Wall Street, it wasn't much better for their television brethren. In fact, it appears that the best way for a TV company to boost its stock in 2005 was to sell itself. Of the 35 stocks that RBR's sister publication, TVBR, reports on daily, only five showed growth last year and three of those were driven by transactions in which they were the seller. Jefferson-Pilot announced a deal to be acquired by another insurance company, Lincoln National, with its radio and TV stations included. Liberty Corporation has a deal pending to sell the entire company to Raycom for nearly a billion bucks. And Emmis Communications rose because it spent much of the year selling off its TV assets, with a couple of deals yet to be announced, choosing to focus on the radio business. The year's biggest winner was McGraw-Hill, driven by its educational and financial data businesses, rather than its small TV station group. So, of the five gainers, the only one to move up on the strength of its broadcast performance was Univision - - and it rose only 0.4% for the year. At the other end of the scale, Young Broadcasting plunged 75.4% and became a penny stock as a year of poor advertising demand was particularly poor in San Francisco, home to its largest station, KRON-TV. Spanish Broadcasting System dropped 51.6% as investors punished the radio company severely for announcing plans to enter TV as well.
| Look if you dare |
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Ad Business Report TM
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 Arbitron, VNU add Unilever to Project Apollo
Bringing the new national marketing research service a big boost, Unilever US has signed on as the latest subscriber to the pilot panel of Project Apollo. The single source, national research initiative will collect multimedia and purchase info based on Arbitron's Portable People Meter (PPM) system and ACNielsen's HomeScan technology. Unilever US, which spends some 600 million dollars yearly for advertising on measured media, adds to Apollo's other clients, P&G and SC Johnson. Unilever is actually one of six advertisers and who, along with their agencies, are members of the Project Apollo Steering Committee, marketers who have signed or are in the process of signing agreements for the Project Apollo pilot panel data. "Maximizing the value of our investments is critical to Unilever, and we anticipate that Project Apollo will help us better understand the complex dynamics of consumer behavior," said Noreen Simmons, director/Strategic Media Planning, Unilever U.S. "We believe a deeper understanding of how our consumers are impacted by our media and marketing activities will enable us to build more effective communication plans." Arbitron and VNU announced 5/05 they would deploy a pilot panel of more than 6,000 households as a demonstration of. The panel will be designed to show advertisers how Apollo would enable a better understanding of the link between consumer exposure to advertising on multiple media and their shopping/purchase behavior.
RBR observation: To some, Apollo represents the Holy Grail of marketing - - measuring reactive purchasing behavior in a multimedia world. If the data and methodologies hold true, single source ROI measurement for all (or most) media will be attainable. The only concerns we've heard from the buying and planning community so far is the final offering to Apollo clients needs to be scalable and somewhat a la carte to be affordable to companies other than the consumer goods giants. We're confident the final product offering will do just that.
 Motown media legends
dine with RBR/TVBR
A good meal and great conversation: Two legendary Motor City media and advertising icons had a lunch with RBR/TVBR's Carl Marcucci at the Capital Grille over the holidays. On the left is Detroit Radio Advertising Group President and former Eastman Radio President/Chairman Bill "Be Fabulous" Burton. Burton, whose hefty circle of friends (he knew roughly half of the patrons there) include top execs at the automakers, is one of radio's biggest cheerleaders, putting on "Why Radio" presentations around the nation. On the right is Patrick McNew, PHD's EVP/Local Media Network (LMN) Director of Operations. He oversees the spot television, radio and cable buying for Chrysler Group as well as all other PHD clients. Along with being the youngest VP in the history of Katz TV, he also spent time at Petry Television as a VP/Regional Area Manager/Automotive Specialist and managed the CBS Cable Office in Detroit. On top of all that, Patrick was also a popular metro Detroit restaurateur!
Bally Total Fitness launches new campaign
The advertising effort, "Meet Your Potential," features real people who have made a pledge to get fit. The campaign moves away from the hard-core fitness ads of the past and takes a realistic look at fitness goals and challenges faced by average, everyday people, while highlighting the company's pledge to "make it personal" by offering personalized nutrition and exercise programs. The effort features eight people who describe real situations that encouraged them to get fit. Each spot features an individual who shares their own personal account of their experience taking the Bally Total Fitness 30-Day Program and the strides they've made towards living a healthier, and more fit, lifestyle. Leading this charge is Bally's Build Your Own Membership plan, which launched nationally in the fall and allows members to choose services from an a la carte menu. The campaign was created in house and began airing this week. Television consists of seven different spots, featuring eight success stories, and will roll out nationally over the next several weeks. The campaign will also extend through radio, print and online advertisement and will be reinforced by in-club promotions and events throughout the year.
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| Media Business Report TM |
 How now, Dow Jones?
Within the troubled newspaper stock sector, few companies are viewed as being more troubled than Dow Jones & Company. So Wall Street cheered when the company announced that its COO, who'd previously been CFO, was moving into the top management position - - the first non-journalist to hold the CEO post. Richard Zannino will take over as CEO on February 1st, as Peter Kann steps down. Kann will still serve as Chairman until 2007. Dow Jones also announced that it was increasing its Q4 guidance, due to better than expected results at its flagship publication, the Wall Street Journal, and its online businesses. Dow Jones made a major expansion online last year, paying 519 million for MarketWatch. But there were also persistent rumors that Dow Jones could be a takeover target itself.
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| Media Markets & Money TM |
Tackett-Boazman find out Watts up
Rex Tackett and Ray Boazman are picking up a quartet of radio stations in an unrated portion of Texas southeast of Abilene. KXYL AM & FM Brownwood and KSTA-AM/KXCT-FM are coming from Watts Communications Inc. for 1.9M in a deal brokered by American Media Services. The AM stations do not overlap, technically making the foursome a pair of one-AM, two-FM duopolies. "This purchase supports our goal of acquiring and developing small to medium market stations," said Tackett. The acquiring company is being called Tackett-Boazman Broadcasting.
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| Washington Media Business Report TM |
 Black elected officials
weigh in on the media
Wayne Ford, a State Representative in the Iowa legislature, sponsored a trio of communications-oriented resolutions, two of which involve broadcasting and all of which were passed at a meeting of the National Black Caucus of State Legislators (NBCSL). The first resolution calls for increased federal support and funding for public broadcasting, including increased transparency of operations at CPB. The second involves rapid, equitable and affordable deployment of broadband. The third involves what may be - - yet again - - a contentious issue in Washington this year: media ownership concentration. The "Resolution In Support Of Diversity In Media Ownership" urges the FCC to "resist attempts to loosen public interest limits on media ownership" and take steps to increase minority ownership. It also asks for more public hearings. The FCC is expected to re-examine ownership regulations at the behest of the Third Circuit Court, which sent back the infamous 6/2/03 rulemaking for that purpose.
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| Entertainment Media Business Report TM |
 X Radio repping "GottGame"
X Radio has announced it will now exclusively represent GottGame, the radio feature highlighting the exciting world of video gaming. Ad opportunities for GottGame will be provided by Dial Communications-Global Media. GottGame is a weekly two-minute radio show which combines hip, fast-paced video game reviews with audio from popular new releases and interviews with the games' creators. Hosted produced by Steve Masters, GottGame currently airs on more than 70 CHR and rock stations nationally, and has just launched an Urban version hosted by KMEL personality Big Von. Versions tailored for sports/talk and other formats are in development. GottGame is provided inventory-free; affiliated stations commit to a minimum number of airings each week of the feature, which includes a short, integrated sponsorship message.
Dahl indulges his "Vice"
Chicago radio veteran Steve Dahl is adding print to his resume as his new weekly column on "Vice" debuts today in the Chicago Tribune. Dahl defines vice as "slight personal imperfections" and his first column will focus on the Windy City's tendency toward sports addictions. "I am uniquely qualified to speak on behalf of those with bad habits," Dahl said of his new gig.
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| Transactions |
5.2M WDQX-FM & WXCL-FM Peoria IL (Morton, Pekin IL) from AAA Entertainment Licensing LLC (Peter H. Ottmar) to Monterey Licenses LLC, a subsidiary of Triad Broadcasting Company LLC (David Benjamin). 260K escrow, balance in cash at closing. Superduopoly with WIRL-AM, WPBG-FM, WMBD-AM & WSWT-FM. AAA retains WWCT-FM, WZPW-FM & WXMP-FM in the market. Parties entered into an 18-month non-compete under which buyer will avoid flipping to Hip Hop or CHR formats and seller will avoid flipping to Country or Classic Hits formats. LMA 12/1/05. [File date 12/12/05.]
225K WAVP-AM Sebring FL (Avon Park FL) from Anscombe Broadcasting Group Ltd. (Steven Reszka) to Odyssey Broadcasting Co. Inc. (Michael Cardillo). 22.5K escrow, balance in cash at closing. [File date 12/9/05.]
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| Stock Talk |
Radio stocks left behind by modest rally
Stock prices were generally higher for the second straight day as traders embraced Tuesday's indication that the Fed is about to stop raising rates. But concerns about retail sales figures hurt broadcasters and other advertising dependent sectors. The Dow Industrials rose 33 points, or 0.3%, to 10,880.
The Radio Index fell 0.316, or 0.2%, to 183.941. Radio One gave up part of the previous day's gains, with its Class A stock dropping 2.3% and Class D 1.9%. The day's best performer was Cumulus, up 1.1%.
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| Radio Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Wednesday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Arbitron
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ARB
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38.47
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-0.33
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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24.13
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+0.27
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Beasley
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BBGI
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13.50
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-0.12
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Interep
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IREP
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0.36
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unch
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| CBS CI. B |
CBS |
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26.00
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-0.20
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Jeff-Pilot
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JP
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57.81
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+0.50
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| CBS CI. A |
CBSa |
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26.05
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-0.10
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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14.05
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+0.02
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| Citadel |
CDL |
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13.50 |
unch |
Radio One, Cl. A
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ROIA
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10.45
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-0.25
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Clear Channel
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CCU
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32.01
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+0.16
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Radio One, Cl. D
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ROIAK
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10.46
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-0.20
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Cox Radio
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CXR
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14.26
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-0.08
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Regent
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RGCI
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4.77
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+0.03
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Cumulus
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CMLS
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12.84
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+0.14
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Saga Commun.
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SGA
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10.87
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-0.15
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Disney
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DIS
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23.99
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-0.41
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Salem Comm.
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SALM
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17.70
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unch
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Emmis
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EMMS
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20.56
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+0.15
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Sirius Sat. Radio
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SIRI
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6.36
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-0.16
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| Entercom |
ETM
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30.18
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+0.27
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Spanish Bcg.
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SBSA
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5.26
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+0.04
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Entravision
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EVC
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7.11
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-0.04
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Univision
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UVN
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30.39
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+0.35
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Fisher
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FSCI
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42.00
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-0.31
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Westwood One
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WON
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16.31
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-0.11
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Gaylord
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GET
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44.96
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+0.17
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XM Sat. Radio
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XMSR
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27.84
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-0.31
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]
Even some broadcasters are upset by the content in some liquor ads
(1/4/05 RBR #2).
The most blatant ad spots I have seen, on all day parts, is the Bacardi Ads that end with: "It gets the job done." My son, who is 16, saw this many times and thought it was so funny. I quote him: "Mom, it just means that Bacardi will get someone drunk... get the job done..." As a mother, I find the spots horrific.... usually spinning some 'bimbo' getting loose..... and again, " it gets the job done." There is an obvious innuendo there and getting a girl drunk.... to get the job done... is an appalling message!!
Shari Greer
Account Executive
Total Traffic Networks
Houston
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Below the Fold
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Ad Business Report
Unilever added
To Arbitron/VNU's Project Apollo...
Media Business Report
How now, Dow Jones?
The troubled newspaper stock sector...
Washington Media Business Report
Black elected officials weigh in
On the media, sponsored a trio of communications-oriented resolutions...
Media Markets & Money
Tackett-Boazman find out Watts up
Picking up a quartet of radio stations in an unrated portion of Texas...
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Radio Media Moves
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 Bustos to NAB
Radio Board
Two-time radio group owner Amador Bustos, currently CEO of Bustos Media, has been named to the NAB Radio Board, filling the vacancy created by the resignation of Miguel Villarreal. Bustos Media currently owns 25 radio stations and produces four nationally syndicated Spanish radio formats.
Miller heading PRI
Public Radio International has named Alisa Miller as its new President and CEO. She had previously been Sr. VP of the PRI Content after joining the radio pubcaster from TV's Sesame Workshop.
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Stations for Sale
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NYC Prime Radio
Time for Lease
7 days a week available p/t-f/t Business, Foreign language, religious, Health, Infomercials accepted. 212-769-1925 [email protected]
TV & Satellite time also available. Station Inquiries welcome
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More News Headlines
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Neil Stawser dead at 78
Long-time CBS News Correspondent Neil Strawser has died at age 78, the network announced. Strawser worked in the network's Washington news bureau for 34 years, reporting for both radio and TV. He was the principal anchor for CBS Radio's coverage of the Kennedy assassination in 1963. Strawser had left journalism in 1986 to become a Capitol Hill staffer.
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January RBR/TVBR Digital Magazine
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2006 - Time Waits
For No One!
Exclusive on Clutter
What have we done???
Ms Jean Pool, EVP/Director of North American Operations for Universal McCann and Chairman of the Media Policy at the AAAAs outlines and truly kicks all in gear - "Just why is it we're hell bent on irritating the very people that we are trying to sell our products and services to? Clutter is the death of the media." - page 12 Solutions Magazine
Read RBR/TVBR in 2 simple steps:
1.Create a simple account with Zinio and download the Zinio Reader.
2. You can then download the
January Issue of RBR/TVBR
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RBR Radar 2005
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Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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'05 - Tough year for radio stocks
Wall Street traders beat up on radio stocks in 2005 - - and not without justification. Clear Channel went through some major restructuring in 2005. RBR's Radio Index began falling in January and never looked back. By the time the year was over, our index of 15 companies whose main business is radio had fallen 21.1%. The year's worst performers were Spanish Broadcasting System, which plunged 51.6% as investors punished the radio company severely for announcing plans to enter TV as well, and Interep, a penny stock which dropped 52% in the face of a terrible year for national sales and some prominent client defections.
01/04/06 RBR #2
2005: The year of penny stocks
No, we're not saying that 2005 was a year to make a killing playing the penny stock market. We have no idea whether it was or not. What we do know is that three public TV companies who began the year in the reputable part of the stock market, where stocks of five bucks or more per share can be readily traded and even bought on margin, are ending the year in penny stock hell - - being traded by the market's scavengers.
RBR observation: How many group heads have we heard from this year who'd been bitten by the Wall Street bug a few years back, but didn't get their IPO preparations together in time? They're breathing a sigh of relief that they didn't get caught up in the rat race of having to answer to The Street's expectations quarter after quarter - - and seeing their stock price fall for reasons beyond their control. Now it's the guys who did make it through the IPO window who are trying to figure out how to go private - - and that ain't easy in the current market.
12/28/05 RBR #251
'06 No light at the end of the tunnel
RAB's report that radio revenues were flat in November was no surprise, but the issue now is figuring out when things will get better. Wachovia Securities analyst Marci Ryvicker is looking for that light at the end of the tunnel, but she doesn't see it yet.
RBR observation: Ryvicker analysis is to the point and all should take extreme caution to her words as RBR could not have said it any better - "At this point in time, we do not feel that the radio industry has a well-defined near-term catalyst as the sector's fundamentals continue to deteriorate, M&A activity has slowed, and both investors and advertisers have become increasingly more interested in new media." Key is simple - New Media - ad clients are going to test and try all new technology delivering content as this holiday sales proved it with hand held technology.
12/29/05 RBR #252
National red ink
flattens radio's November
local revenue registered a modest 1% gain over the same month in 2004, but the month came in flat when a 5% decrease in national revenue and a 1% decrease in non-spot revenue were factored in. Flat is the story for YTD.
RBR observation: Up until recently, the two- and four-year political cycles were much more obvious in television than radio. It seems to us that the bigger problems were the overall weakness in advertising in general and the growing pains of Clear Channel's LIM initiative. Everyone is looking forward to the natural leveling effect of comparing LIM numbers with new LIM numbers in 2006. Plus political will be working in everyone's advantage. There should be no excuses for continued red ink in 2006, barring the usual forced considerations like someone just plain screwing up.
12/28/05 RBR #251
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Sales Manager
Reno Radio Representatives is seeking candidates. The FM station is one of the markets best rated and the company encourages both women and minorities to apply.
See Radio Careers
TVBR Searching for 2 Pros
To join the best TV business publication in the media B2B today. Searching for one (1) Top flight Editor that does not need direction and one (1) Top Experienced Sales person that knows how to Sell/Market quality and wants to make money. Team work expected. Only the pros need apply as TVBR's expansion is now. Confidentiality honored by TVBR publisher Jim Carnegie (813 909 2986) Email qualifications to [email protected]
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