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Radio News ®
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RBR Analysis: Some prime
radio properties  on the market
Parting with some prime radio real estate is the price that Clear Channel must pay, but only six stations, under the DOJ antitrust decision that clears the way for the company's private equity buyout. So it's full steam ahead to a closing next month as buyers line up to pick up the castoffs in San Francisco, Houston, Cincinnati and Las Vegas. According to a research note from Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller, DOJ is requiring CCU to sell one Spanish language station in San Francisco, which would be KSJO-FM. In Houston it must divest one English station, either KHMX-FM or KTBZ-FM, and its one Spanish station, KLOL-FM. In Cincinnati it has to part with two English stations - either the combination of WLW-AM and WKFS-FM, or the combination of WOFX-FM and WNNF-FM. And finally, in Las Vegas CCU has to divest its one Spanish station, KWID-FM. Right off the bat you can rule out Cumulus Media Partners or Univision as buyers, since it is the overlapping ownership stakes in those companies by Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital that has the DOJ worried about market dominance.
| RBR.com Examines the Stations, Prices and Potential Buyers in each market |
RBR observation: The true irony of this is that Clear Channel had led the charge by general market broadcasters to get into the fast-growing Hispanic radio market and create new competition. So, the DOJ's Antitrust Division is actually moving to decrease competition in the Spanish radio marketplace in three markets, by forcing a sale to either an existing competitor or a new entrant who will be a weaker, standalone competitor than Clear Channel was with its English-Spanish clusters. Your tax dollars at work.
Clear Channel says closing on track for next month
"The company anticipates closing on or before March 31, 2008," Clear Channel Communications stated in its Q4 and full year 2007 results news release. The company has not been holding conference calls with analysts due to the pending buyout. But that brief sentence reaffirming plans to close the 26.7 billion bucks deal is probably more important to folks on Wall Street than anything in the financial numbers. Companywide revenues were up 4% in Q4 to 1.84 billion, but that was all due to a 13% gain by Clear Channel Outdoor. Clear Channel Radio revenues declined 3% to 875 million. Radio operating income before depreciation and amortization, non-cash compensation expense and gain/loss on disposition of assets (OIBDAN) declined 9% to 329.6 million. "We delivered excellent results with record earnings per share in 2007. Full year and fourth quarter growth in revenue and OIBDAN reflected continued strength throughout our Outdoor operations, which posted double-digit gains in revenue and OIBDAN. Our Radio team continued its successful track record of out-performing our competitors in the radio industry. As we enter 2008, we remain optimistic across all our businesses. We have seen improving trends in the current year in our radio division and would expect that to continue through the end of the year," said CEO Mark Mays. As of February 8th, revenues for Clear Channel Radio were pacing down 4% for Q1. Outdoor was pacing up 4.5%.
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Arbitron sees 2008 revenues up 8-10%
Despite the tough ad market for radio stations, Arbitron CEO Steve Morris told analysts that the company was able to get rate increases in 2007, with revenues for the year up 6% to 338.5 million bucks. Q4 revenues rose 5.4% to 80.1 million. With the PPM rollout going slower than originally planned, bigger gains are seen in 2009, following a projected revenue increase of 6-8% in 2008. Another variable is whether or not Project Apollo moves from the test phase to commercial implementation and Morris said a go or no-go decision in consultation with the big agencies and advertisers assessing the rather costly national panel will be made soon. The guidance for 2008 was better than Wall Street had been expecting, so Arbitron's stock rose yesterday. With the rollout of PPM slowed down, but due to take off again come September, one analyst wanted to know whether the data being produced right now by PPM measurement are good enough to go ahead with the rollout in September. Morris replied that it all about "confidence in the numbers," which he admitted was an intangible. "I think the numbers we have today are very, very solid and we have a lot of confidence in them in terms of being valid. We've also said that we really intend to use this delay period to improve a whole series of metrics," Morris said, noting particularly that the company is now focusing on improving representation of 25-34 year olds in the PPM sample.
 Another Carlin word
goes over the air
Is there a new rite of passage to go along with first Barbie, first date, and first driver's license? Is it now a requirement that at some point everybody in America is expected to unleash an unbleeped expletive over broadcast airspace? The latest perp is Jane Fonda on NBC's Today Show. Fonda was discussing the play "Vagina Monologues" with host Meredith Vieira. She said that she hadn't had an opportunity to see it when she was living in Georgia, then reached into the George Carlin heavy-seven list in the sentence, "Then I was asked to do a monologue called 'c**t,' and I said, 'I don't think so. I've got enough problems.'" After approximately 10 minutes, Vieira apologized to viewers.
| The clip is posted on YouTube |
RBR observation: The fleeting use standard should once again carry the day in this instance, meaning that Fonda's slip-up should not be subject to a fine. And in all fairness, this was almost a clinical use of the term. Fonda was citing the name of a work of art. And despite its title, the play which spawned Fonda's burst of vulgarity is also seen not as pornography but as a work of art addressing serious adult topics. It seems in this instance that in addition to the fleeting reference exception, the old news program exception for certain Carlinesque words could apply, if it hasn't also been tossed out as the FCC has tried to toss out the fleeting exception. The battle over that corner of the indecency enforcement landscape is parked outside the Supreme Court with a decision on whether or not to hear the case pending.
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NAB sends a valentine to the recording industry
And it let members of Congress in on the tribute to the ongoing "love affair" between the two businesses. The recording industry traditionally provides broadcasters with content, and broadcasters traditionally provide the recording companies with free promotion. NAB's ad on the topic was run in all the popular Capitol Hill rags, including "Roll Call," "The Hill," and "Politico." The ad quotes the many praises broadcasters have received over the years from both musicians and record company executives, and is designed to head off attempts on the Hill to legislate a new performance royalty on top of the composition royalties broadcasters already pay to organizations like BMI and ASCAP. As in many broadcast legislative issues, this battle does not break down on party lines. Attempting to add the fee are Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Patrick Leahy (D-VT) in the Senate, and Darrell Issa (R-CA) and Howard Berman (D-CA) in the House. A bipartisan group in the House, now numbering 148 members, is supporting an equally bipartisan pair of sponsors, Gene Green (D-TX) and Mike Conaway (R-TX) and their Local Radio Freedom Act.
| See the ad here (hi-res 2.63M) |
 Post-grad degree for
NABEF underclassman
DuJuan McCoy hasn't even made it all the way through the NABEF Broadcast Leadership Training program, but he has arguably already exceeded expectations. He is the same DuJuan McCoy who just announced plans to kick off a small television group in Texas. McCoy is not exactly a newcomer to the business, with 19 years of sales work under his belt, but his NABEF education, described as an MBA-style program, will be put to work with stunning rapidity. McCoy has a 50% stake in Bayou City Broadcasting (along with Oliver Hunter), which is acquiring Sage Broadcasting, comprised of KIDY-TV San Angelo and KXVA-TV Abilene. There are also five low power facilities. One of the Abilene LPTVs, KIDZ-TV, carries Fox junior network MNTV. There are additional LPTVs and Class As in Brownwood, Sweetwater, Albany and Stamford. Bayou is spending over 3M for the group and says its on the lookout for more stations, particularly if Washington ever gets around to reinstating the minority tax credit that is supported by virtually everybody we've ever heard mention it. "We are very proud to learn that DuJuan will join the ranks of broadcast television ownership," said NABEF President Marcellus Alexander. "His acquisition of these seven properties is another great example of our BLT program delivering on its goal of station ownership that reflects our country's rich diversity. We applaud and share in his initial success."
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| Wall Street Business Report TM |
An up quarter for Beasley
That's a pleasant surprise, since analysts were expecting revenues to be down in Q4. Instead, Beasley reported a tiny 0.4% increase to 35 million, although revenues were down 3.8% on a same station basis. Costs increased, so station operating income fell 11.9% to 9.9 million, or down 5.9% on a same stations basis. "Our fourth quarter revenue performance exceeded the industry at-large, our markets and the guidance provided at the time we reported our third quarter results. With programming and on-air changes in place in various large and mid-sized clusters, our focus in 2008 is to continue delivering on our long-term goal of topping the performance of the markets in which we operate and generating gains across our entire station portfolio and through our Interactive initiatives. In the fourth quarter of 2007, our Interactive initiatives accounted for 3.4% of the Company's total revenue and represented 3.1% of the full year 2007 total revenue," said CEO George Beasley. Beasley Broadcast Group is looking for Q1 revenues to be down 4%.
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Ad Business Report TM
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 After RAB: What about Haley's
promise of posting?
RAB president Jeff Haley unveiled a few new initiatives in Atlanta, including getting radio receivers on every mobile handheld device, phone and MP3 player within the next five years; how digital will open the doors for radio to deliver targeted ad messages; and a promise that the radio industry would adopt posting (common in the TV biz)--showing ratings a buy was based on vs. the audience it actually delivered.
He said posting was simply a guarantee that radio will deliver what it promises to our advertisers. "We know our actual delivery is better than the current perception...With confidence, we can show our clients that we believe in our medium's ability to deliver. The debate is over-we will post." He also noted the radio biz needs to develop guidelines for posting, but it would eventually lead to audience guarantees for advertisers-and more ad dollars because of it.
Jerry Lee, WBEB-FM (B-101) Philadelphia owner, tells RBR that posting only makes sense if you are a PPM market. "It just won't work with the Diary. We need to bring together a Blue Ribbon committee of Advertisers, Agencies, Arbitron, the RAB and Radio Stations to work out the details so that it is fair to all parties. We have no choice. It is going to be imposed on us, so we might as well be part of the process to make it a win-win for the Ad Community and the Broadcast Community."
| We asked a few buyers what they thought: |
RBR observation: As Feinberg and Swed Stone noted, posting has been talked about for years, but has been done internally by the agencies for years as well. Stations should not say posting is being imposed on them, and then try to fight it-it only hurts their cred. We remember a healthy discussion at the RAB Board meeting in 2003 about posting. Posting is against national dollars and we should do it. Stop hiding under a rock and at least get it rolling as PPM is rolled out.
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| Intelligence Brief |
 Why ratings no longer matter
Friday's Special Intel Brief is a look at history, and putting it into today's perspective. "Why ratings no longer matter" is a question mark that's being posed by Joe Pilotta, Ph D, VP/BIGresearch. We recommend to our readers to print this out and actually start backwards-look at the timeline of the history chart of all these ratings companies were founded and founded upon. Dr. Joe is trying to bring to perspective that you have to know where ratings came from to know where they are going. So sit back, read, learn a little history put into today's perspective. And the Internet does play a major portion in this.
| Read this Intel Brief |
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| Media Markets & Money TM |
AFA receives three DIYs
No money is changing hands in a trio of transactions sending FM CPs from one noncom to another. The recipient of the donated properties in all three cases is the American Family Association, headed by Donald E. Wildmon. Two -- KJSB-FM Jonesboro AR and KGLL-FM Gillette WY -- are coming from Solid Rock Broadcasting; the third -- KEEA-FM Aberdeen SD -- is coming from Salt and Light Communications Inc. The donators say they want to make Religious programming available in their communities, and AFA has the wherewithal to build the stations, hence the donation. All three are Class As. KJSB-FM will be on 88.3 MHz with 1.9 kW @ 299'; KGLL-FM is slotted into 88.1 MHz with 200 W @ 279'; and KEEA-FM is pegged for 90.1 MHz with 6 kW at 98'.
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| Washington Business Report TM |
MSTV counters DTV gap study
Market researcher Centris has a study out that anticipates a glitch in waiting for the DTV transition. It says there are over 40M non-MVPD households and 117M non-MVPD-connected television sets, and many of these will be at risk for dropped service on 2/17/09. The at-risk homes are those on the fringe or beyond the main contour of broadcast television signals. Centris says 75% of all over-the-air homes rely on nothing more than a set-top rabbit ear antenna arrangement, and fears that will not be enough to guarantee continued service after the transition. The Association of Maximum Service Television (MSTV) has responded, saying that Centris missed several points. First, it relied on "paper analysis" of coverage rather than signal strength measurement. Second, Centris applied that DTV service may be unavailable areas already served by the analog signal, which MSTV says is flat-out incorrect. Finally, MSTV points out that consumers in fringe areas are already aware of the need for special antenna arrangements to pick signals off the air, and what they have for analog reception should continue to be of service for digital as well. The dispute moved to the halls of Congress this week, as the Centris study was referenced by Ed Markey (D-MA) while questioning FCC Chairman Kevin Martin. Martin was convinced the FCC was as prepared for this as well as it can be, although it cannot account for possible reception of a television signal that is beyond its predicted contour. Centris disputed Martin, claiming that the types of problems it is predicting are being experienced right now in Great Britain. And so it goes.
RBR observation: We have to believe that people in fringe reception areas are well aware of the challenges of picking up good broadcast signals. Providing television to such places is the reason cable service was invented in the first place. We are not engineers. We advise you to take this lack of expertise with a ton of salt, but that said, we suspect it is possible these areas will be among the harder hit when it comes to percentage of DTV lost-reception victims, but in the final analysis, that number will most likely be a relatively tiny percentage of the total viewing public. Perhaps a contingency fund could be set aside to deal with this problem, if it turns out to exist, if it helps fringe legislators sleep better.
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| Executive Comment |
An open letter to RAB President
& CEO Jeff Haley from Stuart Sharpe
Jeff,
 First, congratulations on the Radio Advertising Bureau's presentation of one of the finest, most useful sales conferences in many years. This week's "Bold Signals" was excellent! Second, the "One Voice" campaign undertaken in conjunction with the NAB is an excellent initiative in the effort to deliver a more powerful and consistent message about Radio to the advertising community and the general public. Third, the concept of the alliance the RAB has created with Katz and Interep could be a step in the right direction of making Radio easier to buy. Frankly, however, as described at the conference earlier this week and in the press since, the alliance doesn't represent true unity in the Radio industry. It is true Katz and Interep are the largest Radio sales representatives -- but they are not the only ones. For example Regional Reps Corp. has been representing small market stations for more than 50 years. The Tacher Company and Commercial Media Sales are Radio rep firms with long histories as well.
More significant, the comments I've seen in the press attributed to Katz' Bonnie Press and Interep's Sheila Kirby (who deserves kudos for the work she and her committee did in creating Bold Signals) portend only limited unity! Press suggested "speaking with one voice" means a "single source execution" (by Katz and Interep exclusively?) intended to answer the complaint Radio is too hard to buy. According to Kirby, the two companies have "landscaped these accounts very thoroughly" to determine which firm should interact with which advertiser, and "we need to get more of their spending on our properties..." The quotes leave open to question how much unity will be felt by the thousands of stations (and their rep firms) not represented by Katz and Interep. As members of long standing and evangelists for the Radio Advertising Bureau, we at Regional Reps applaud your goals for the "One Voice" campaign and the alliance. We fully support the need to make Radio's advantages more top of mind and our product easier to buy. Based upon what we've heard and read so far, however, this alliance needs some work in order to rise to the level of what you described as a "great show of unity in the Radio industry."
 Regards,
Stuart J. Sharpe, President, Regional Reps Corp.
P.S. As part of increasing Radio's visibility and visual impact in print, here's a suggestion: capitalize the word "Radio" in all printed material, e-mails and other RAB printed communication. Urge everyone in our industry to do so. As you often have said, Jeff, "Words are important;" visual images are important as well."TV" stands out in print, so too should Radio!
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| Transactions |
550K WMUU-AM Greenville SC from WMUU Inc. (John D. Matthews) to Comunidad Christiana Internacional - Asambleas de Dias Inc. (Edson Dos Santos, William Bolivar, Abranam Parajon, Rosenir Darocha, Jorge Lara). 30K escrow, 20K cash, 280K from buyer's loan agreement with Pinnacle Bank, 120K note. Seller retains WMUU-FM, buyer will be required to get new call letters. [File date 1 /14/08.]
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| Stock Talk |
Big Ben gives Wall Street a downer
Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke put traders in a selling mood when he said the economy would be "sluggish" for a while before recovering late in the year. The Dow Industrials fell 175 points, or 1.4%, to 12,377.
Radio stocks also fell. The RBR Radio Index was down 1.272, or 1.5%, to 81.460. Emmis took a dive, falling 9.3%. Radio One Class D was down 6.6%. There were gainers. Journal Communications recovered 4% and Arbitron, which reported earnings, rose 3.3%.
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| Radio Stocks |
Here's how stocks fared on Thursday
| Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
Company |
Symbol |
Close |
Change |
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Arbitron*
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ARB
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42.40
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+1.36
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Google
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GOOG
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532.25
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-2.37
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Beasley*
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BBGI
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5.41
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+0.02
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Hearst-Argyle
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HTV
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22.00
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+0.13
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| CBS CI. B |
CBS |
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25.08
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-0.35
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Journal Comm.
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JRN
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7.76
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+0.30
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| CBS CI. A |
CBSa |
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25.12
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-0.29
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Lincoln Natl.
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LNC
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52.90
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-0.38
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| Citadel* |
CDL |
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1.41 |
-0.01 |
Radio One, Cl. A
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ROIA
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1.58
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-0.08
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Clear Channel*
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CCU
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30.13
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+0.64
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Radio One, Cl. D*
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ROIAK
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1.57
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-0.11
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Cox Radio*
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CXR
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11.76
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-0.22
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Regent*
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RGCI
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1.20
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-0.03
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Cumulus*
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CMLS
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5.81
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+0.03
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Saga Commun.*
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SGA
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5.98
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+0.02
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Debut Bcg.
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DBTB
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1.02
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unch
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Salem Comm.*
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SALM
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4.01
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+0.11
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Disney
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DIS
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32.32
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-0.46
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Sirius Sat. Radio
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SIRI
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3.19
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+0.01
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Emmis*
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EMMS
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2.83
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-0.29
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Spanish Bcg.*
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SBSA
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1.60
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-0.80
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Entercom*
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ETM
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12.31
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-0.30
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Westwood One*
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WON
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1.87
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-0.06
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Entravision
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EVC
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6.72
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-0.07
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XM Sat. Radio
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XMSR
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13.41
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+0.16
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Fisher
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FSCI
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31.06
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-0.58
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-
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-
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-
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-
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-
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*Component of the RBR Radio Index
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Bounceback
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 We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]
Different analysts, different analysis
 Bear Stearns analyst Chris Ensley checks in to explain why he and competitor Marci Ryvicker at Wachovia arrived as such different conclusions after reviewing Fall Arbitron ratings data (2/13/08 RBR #30).
The difference between our results and Wachovia's results are that we look strictly at ratings, while Wachovia looked at "share of ratings." It is possible to have an increase in ratings but a decrease in share. Unfortunately, it is possible to reach different conclusions based on whether you analyze "ratings" or "ratings share."
Sorry it resulted in confusion....
Chris Ensley
Bear Stearns
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Below the Fold
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Executive Comment
An open letter to
RAB Pres. & CEO Jeff Haley from Stuart Sharpe who states: "This alliance needs some work in order to rise to the level..."...
Intel Brief
Why ratings no longer matter
We recommend to our readers to print this out and actually start backwards...
Ad Business Report
After RAB: Haley's posting promise
Executives and Agencies are now posting their comments with RBR...
Media Markets & Money
AFA receives three DIYs
No money changing hands in a trio...
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Stations for Sale
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 Market your Stations For Sale
in our daily epapers.
Contact
Jim Carnegie
[email protected]
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Radio Media Moves
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Bicoastal promotions
Bicoastal Media has promoted two market managers to Regional Vice President positions. Gary Grossman, Market Manager of the Columbia River Oregon group, has been named Regional VP for the Northwest Region. Joe de Groot, Market Manager for the Coos Bay, OR cluster, has been named Regional VP for the Coastal Region.
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TVBR - TV News
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Clear Channel TV sale still in doubt
FCC approval is in place and Newport Television, a company backed by the Providence Equity Partners private equity firm has even filed with the FCC to put into trust the stations it can't own outright, pending their sale. But even so, Clear Channel Communications says its 1.225 billion sale of its 35-station Clear Channel Television group is not certain to go to closing. "A representative of Providence has informed us that the buyer is considering its options under the definitive agreement, including not closing the acquisition on the terms and conditions in the definitive agreement. The definitive agreement is in full force and effect, has not been terminated and contains customary closing conditions. There have been no allegations that we have breached any of the terms or conditions of the definitive agreement or that there is a failure of a condition to closing the acquisition," Clear Channel said yesterday as it reported its Q4 financial results. Whether or not the TV sale closes will not affect the buyout of the whole company by two other private equity companies. That transaction is on track to close next month.
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RBR Radar 2008
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Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.
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DOJ approves CCU buyout, but requires divestitures
Thomas H. Lee Partners and Bain Capital now have the last regulatory approval needed to close their 26.7 billion bucks deal to take Clear Channel Communications private - but there are conditions attached, like selling and DOJ is the stamp of approval. Those divestiture markets are Cincinnati, Houston, Las Vegas and San Francisco.
RBR observation: Have you heard of a market lately where anyone has accused Clear Channel of working to push rates up? In any case, DOJ can tell the taxpayers that their money is being put to use - and Clear Channel can get on with closing this long-pending buyout. The company appeared to be anticipating this outcome. We heard yesterday of a sale rumor already floating around the Houston market, so these divestitures may already be in the works. By the way, Clear Channel's stock price finally moved back above 30 bucks in after-hours trading yesterday once this DOJ approval was announced. But the stock is still well below the 39.20 buyout price.
02/14/08 RBR #31
Settlement with bond holders may nix Citadel dividend
Citadel Broadcasting hasn't paid a dividend to shareholders since its special dividend just before the merger acquisition of ABC Radio from Disney. There had been expectations that Citadel would resume quarterly dividend payments this year, but that may not happen due to the settlement that the company has reached with bondholders who'd been fighting in court over whether Citadel had to immediately pay off its bonds because of the ABC deal (2/13/08 RBR #30). After looking over the terms of the proposed settlement, Bear Stearns analyst Vic Miller told clients not to expect any dividend payment from Citadel this year.
RBR observation: Seems the only person or persons seeing any ROI are the people at the top. If you have time RBR recommends you review their info filed with the SEC and see who is making and taking who much. Someone is living the good life based on zero performance.
02/14/08 RBR #31
The strike is over:
Now get back to work!
Well over three months of a strike that cost the LA economy some three billion dollars, according to the Los Angeles County Economic Development Corp. Of that total, said The LA Times, an estimated 772 million came from lost wages for writers and production workers, 981 million from various businesses that service the industry, including caterers and equipment rental houses, and 1.3 billion from the ripple effect of consumers not spending as much at retail shops, restaurants and car dealers. In contrast, the 1988 WGA strike, which ran five months, caused a 500 million loss to the local economy. For more details see TVBR
02/14/08 TVBR #31
Ratings data crunched
on Wall Street
Two analysts are out with their take on the Fall Arbitron ratings, but it you think it is just simple math, think again. Chris Ensley at Bear Stearns declared Emmis one of the biggest gainers on a revenue-weighted ratings basis, while Marci Ryvicker at Wachovia listed Emmis as one of the worst performers year-over-year. It's all in the methodology and assumptions, of course..
RBR observation: Don't ask us to referee this. We do, though, find the difference in analysis interesting. Both analysts noted that PPM ratings data from two large markets complicated the calculations. Ryvicker decided to exclude Houston and Philadelphia from the overall analysis, then noted how PPM data would have adjusted the numbers for each group. Ensley included the two PPM markets, then added a note on how much the numbers would change with Houston and Philadelphia excluded. But that doesn't have anything to do with the difference of opinion over Emmis, which has no stations in either market.
02/13/08 RBR #30
XM/Sirius: Analyst argues that time not of the essence
Tyler Savery of seekingalpha.com says he's amused by many of the theories bouncing around as to why the regulatory is taking so long to announce a decision on the merger of satcasters XM and Sirius. The length of time is seen as both a positive and a negative, depending on who is doing the viewing. However, looking at the negatives, he said if the merger was a slam-dunk denial as some argue, then it would have been dispensed with long ago. The positive view, that the agencies are taking a long time to make sure all details are triple-checked before granting what figures to be a controversial approval, holds only a little bit more water, since that process has been ongoing from the beginning anyway.
02/13/08 RBR #30
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RBR Classifieds
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Hard finding that key person
to fill the important position at your organization? RBR Classifieds, Results with Service. Contact April McLynn at [email protected]
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