Welcome to RBR's Daily Epaper
Volume 25, Issue 37, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher
Friday Morning February 22nd, 2008
Carnegie's Observation
Saving Radio - Part 1
Written by Jerry DelColliano (left)
Observations by Jim Carnegie (right)

I was just about to write what JD already did so why do it twice?

Part 1 issues covering:

1. Start by seeing radio under a larger umbrella.
2. Get into the local content business.
3. Start your own Internet-based record labels. That's right. I'd do this in a Hoboken heartbeat.
4. Start your own Internet-based record labels.
5. Turn to your terrestrial format now.

| Read the Keys that could open the door to Saving Radio |


Radio News ®


Reed batting out RBI
Reed Business Information, the US business mag division of English-Dutch Reed Elsevier, is on the block. It includes choice communications titles such as Variety, Broadcasting and Cable, Multichannel News and Publishers Weekly. RE's CEO Sir Crispin Davis, pictured, said the group is well-run, but that its ad-based income MO is inconsistent with the strategy used by the rest of the company. "...today we have announced a further major step with the planned divestment of Reed Business Information (RBI)," said Davis. "RBI is a well-managed high quality business as evidenced by the success of its online growth and the control of costs. Its advertising revenue model and the inherent cyclicality fit less well however with the subscription-based information and workflow solutions focus of Reed Elsevier's strategy." RE made this announcement in conjunction with another detailing its plans to acquire data service US ChoicePoint for 4.1B. A tool used by insurance companies, it is considered to be a good fit with the firm's LexisNexis service.

RBR observation: Nobody is more aware of the situation in the trade mag business than we are. Of course Davis is going to praise RBI -- he wants to sell it for as much as possible. But you don't take a prospective buyer into the showroom and talk about what good mileage your magazine division gets; the client wants to hear how fast it goes from zero to sixty. Hey, these assets know how to control costs -- could that be because they're having trouble generating income? We at RBR/TVBR have learned the hard way - you can not have it both ways, either you are subscription based or advertising based and internet driven. We will be watching the RE sales pitch on this group with extreme interest.

RBR/TVBR personal note, we wish the best of luck in particular to our friends at B&C. One of our editors was working there back when Reed bought it in the first place, which is directly tied to why this editor is now working here. Not that very many of the people he knew back in the day are still there.

P.S. We called this sort of thing back in October, regarding paper, print and postage (10/29/07 RBR #211)

Looking ahead at Radio One
Radio One honcho Alfred Liggins thinks his company has a 5M head start for 2008. That's because that's how much cash the company bled in Los Angeles alone. It does not figure to do so again, because the situation there seems to have flattened for Q1 and is poised to move up after that. What is responsible for the turnaround. A number of things, said Liggins. For one thing, a costly format switch has been completed. On top of that, Liggins says he has an extremely good manager there who has restructured sales efforts, an effort that is already showing dividends. Ratings are flat, sales are up with those ratings, and non-spot revenue streams are up. The disappointing revenue results RAB reported for January pull Radio One down along with everybody else, RO execs noted, but they were pleased to report outperforming the 12 of 15 Miller-Kaplan rated markets. Liggins addressed PPM, saying it's been a mixed bag, with much recent improvement from their point of view. After initial losses, particularly in Houston, the numbers are getting back to where they thought they should be. "There is no playbook for PPM and we're figuring it out as we go along," he said in reporting the upswing. As for PPM's immediate future, he said, "I can't tell you what Arbitron's doing because I don't know." "And I don't think they do either," was the snappy one-liner fired back by questioner Victor Miller of Bear Stearns. Liggins said the company's focus for 2008 was going to be squarely on cash flow, with other balancing strategies coming into play only if necessary. For TV One, the company will continue ifs effort to get the basic cable service on EchoStar and Cablevision.


Fisher revenues down
in Q4; up FY 2007

Fisher Communications announced its financial results for Q4 and full-year 2007. Q4 revenue decreased 1% vs. 2006. FY revenue was up 4% in 2007 vs. 2006. Television revenue increased 3% for the year, compared to 2006-largely due to increases in national ad revenue for both the English and Spanish-language TV stations. For Q4, television revenue also decreased 1% compared to the same quarter in 2006. The decrease from prior year was due to cyclical decreases in political advertising offset by strong increases in both national and local advertising. Fisher Plaza revenue increased 20% for the full year 2007 and 3% in Q4. Fisher reported net income of 31.4 million in Q4, compared to 16.9 million for Q4 '06. Q4 net income included a gain from the sale of the Safeco stock of 26.2 million. Q4 income from continuing operations, excluding the gain from the sale of stock, was 5.1 million, compared to income from continuing operations for Q4 2006 of 7.0 million. In Q4 of 2006, Fisher sold 18 of its 24 stations for 26.1 million. In Q2 of 2007, the Fisher sold one of the remaining six radio stations held for sale for 3.0 million.

For the FY 2007 net income was 31.9 million in comparison to 2006 net income of 16.8 million. Income from continuing operations for the full year, excluding the after-tax gain from the sale of stock of 26.2 million, was 4.0 million, compared to income from continuing operations for the year of 6.3 million. Income from discontinued operations for the full year 2007 was 1.7 million, compared to income from 2006 discontinued operations of 10.6 million. Said Fisher Communications CEO Colleen Brown (pictured): "2007 was a strong year for Fisher, building off an improved year in 2006. In the past two years we have driven sales growth, ratings growth, and margin growth. We have diversified our network and geographic footprint, built duopolies in our existing markets, entered the Spanish-language television business, launched an Internet division, and significantly improved our debt to cash flow ratio, while continuing to improve the performance of the company."

Note: on 1/1/08, Fisher closed on KBAK-TV (CBS) and KBFX-CA (FOX) Bakersfield, from Westwind Communications for 55 million cash.

Buyout roulette
Are you ready to make a quick killing with a big investment into Clear Channel? Its price is still well below the buyout price of 39.20, notes Boston Globe columnist Steven Syre. The result of a buy could be a lightning quick 25% gain. But of course there is a catch. "The sale of Clear Channel seems as if it's been going forever," he notes, "because it has. Initially, Bain and Lee emerged as the management-endorsed winners in November 2006. But public investors last spring drove the price higher, to its current level." And since then, deteriorating conditions in both the radio business and the credit/banking community have been driving the stock price down. It also is making the banks consider whether paying a hefty penalty to break off the wedding is preferable to walking all the way down the to the altar.

RBR observation: If the banks decide to ignore any shotgun-toting father-figure who really wants the wedding to go through, dodge the ensuing hail of buckshot and hightail it out of the wedding ceremony, there's no telling where Clear Channel stock might go. But it doesn't figure to shoot back up to 39.20. Stay tuned.


Wall Street Business Report TM
Radio One thinks it's found the bottom
Urban radio specialist Radio One was in markets suffering an aggregate 5% loss in revenue during Q4 2007, and that's what it lost. But President/CEO Alfred Liggins says he has reason to believe his company has reached the bottom and should at the very least outperform the rest of the industry -- partly because for all he knows his competition still may have some distance to fall. Net revenue for the quarter was at 78.1M, down from 82.3M in Q4 2006. For full-year 2007, it brought in 330.3M compared to 341.2M in 2006. Lack of political was a factor in the lessened performance, but the overall problems within the radio industry were the main culprit, and weak national business was the biggest problem for the industry. RO said it did generate black ink in Atlanta and Raleigh, at any rate. Radio One said that equity in loss from an affiliated company, which is where TV One numbers figure, went in the wrong direction, from 772K to 3.9M. RO said the capital structure of the affiliate was largely responsible for the red ink.


Ad Business Report TM

Beer brewer malternatives questioned
Anheuser Busch and Miller Brewing are facing questions from a posse of state AGs concerning alcohol-containing energy drinks -- Bud Extra in A-B's case and Sparks in Miller's. The companies don't think they should feel so all alone, since there are other similarly constituted drinks already on the market. Documents are under subpoena from both companies regarding the marketing of drinks that combine alcohol and caffeine. The companies are said to be cooperating with the investigation, even while they deny charges that they are targeting underage drinkers. They said the drinks have already been approved by appropriate regulatory agencies at both the state and federal level. According to reports, AGs in New York, Maine, Maryland, Iowa, Arizona and Illinois are involved one or both of the companies. Critics of the drinks compare them to non-alcoholic energy drinks popular with young demos. But the manufacturers point out that there are already drinks mixing alcohol and caffeine available, not the least of which is the venerable cocktail offering of rum and cola.

RBR observation: Court precedent holds that advertising speech is not as free as the regular old free speech that you or this publication enjoys. However, it is best for everybody if advertising speech remains as free as possible. There is ongoing debate on alcohol advertising, particularly where the venue of choice attracts a certain percentage of underage consumers. However, as long as the advertising is socially responsible, the product is legal, and the advertisers do not make false claims, in our view, allowing it to go forward is most consistent with the Constitution.

Radio-Mercury Awards extends entry deadline
The deadline to submit entries for the 2008 Radio-Mercury Awards competition has been extended to 2/29, with no late-fee increases. The general entry rate of 125 dollars per spot remains intact as does the 30 dollar fee for PSA and Student entries. The extension was prompted by an overwhelming demand from agencies, production firms, and tations, which now have an additional week to enter online at RadioMercuryAwards.com.


Media Markets & Money TM
Alt-ernat plan for WCND
WCND-AM Shelbyville KY, east of Louisville, was part of a deal between Forever Broadcasting (which includes principals Donald Alt, Kerby Confer and Christine Hillard) and Sima Birach's Birach Broadcasting. In its original incarnation, the 300K deal included WNTJ-AM Johnstown PA. According to a new filing, the WNTJ portion of the deal has been approved by the FCC, and now the parties are refiling so the WCND portion can follow suit. Jamie Rasnick of John Piece & Company handled brokerage chores.

Spin-off of Kalil Holdings Group hits fast track
The virtual ink is just barely dry on the closing announcement on a group of five radio stations by station orphanage Kalil Holding Group, established by brokerage house Kalil & Co. Salvaged from a troubled ownership situation, Kalil has already found foster parents for two of the five. The stations are KTXM-FM Hallettsville TX and KYKM-FM Yoakum TX. The buyer is Kremling Enterprises Inc., headed by Laura and Travis Kremling. they have already kicked off an LMA. Still on the Kalil shelf from the earlier deal with Roy Henderson are KMBV-FM Navosta TX, KHLT-AM Hallettsville TX and KIOX-FM Edna TX


Washington Business Report TM
Broadband bill in
the works in the House

It doesn't even have a number yet, but a draft version of H.R. ___ is on the table for public discussion by Ed Markey's (D-MA) Subcommittee on Telecommunications and the Internet. The working title: Wireless Consumer Protection and Community Broadband Empowerment. This looks to us like a long drawn-out way of saying net neutrality. The session is pegged for 10AM on 2/27/08.


Entertainment Business Report TM
GLR launches "40 Principales"
GLR Networks announced the launch of 40 Principales on 3/1, a two hour Contemporary and Pop music hit countdown weekend show. The show host is music expert Julio Cesar Ramirez, one of the top personalities from 40 Principales in Mexico.


Friday Intelligence Brief
Battle of the spot monitoring systems
How are spot and content monitoring providers improving their offerings for broadcasters, agencies and clients? Inquiring agencies and advertisers want to know-at the click of a mouse and as fast as possible. RBR decided to find out what the latest offerings are in getting spot data immediately, to answer the question-Did The Spot Run??!! (as well as access a cornucopia of other data and analysis for a campaign).
| Read the brief here |


Programming Business Report
JMA adds new format
Jones MediaAmerica has introduced "Jones Variety Hits" to their 24-hour, satellite-delivered formats that will provide day and daypartable in-program inventory to national advertisers. The new format is set to launch 3/1. "Jones Variety Hits is the perfect complement to the 11 existing formats that comprise our 24 hour network," said Susan Love, VP, Advertising Sales for Jones MediaAmerica. "We know that Jones Variety Hits will help us continue to effectively target and reach the core demographic of Adults 25-54, and we're very excited about that." Jones Variety Hits will showcase top artists like Elton John, Matchbox Twenty, George Michael, Alanis Morrisette, John Mayer, and Prince, focusing on a unique blend of hits from the '70's, '80's, '90's and today. The new format has the ability to copy split.


Internet Business Report TM
Univision Online starts 2008 with record traffic
Univision Online announced today that Univision.com surpassed a new milestone in January by reaching all-time high traffic levels. The website reached nearly 17 million unique browsers and 37 million visits last month, achieving year over year increases of +24% and +19%, respectively. Univision.com continues to grow its traffic, while maintaining transparency and accuracy in traffic measurement through Media Rating Council (MRC) Accreditation. Univision.com is the longest-running MRC Accredited website in any language.

Online listening chart 4.8 billion listening hours in '07
Music radio online (live streaming channels and individual track plays) generated 4.85 billion total listening hours in 2007, up 26.1% over 2006, according to a new research report by AccuStream iMedia Research. Total listening hours averaged 404.2 million hours per month (excluding downloaded music), compared to a 320.5 million hour average in 2006, including leading music subscription services such as Napster, Yahoo Music and Rhapsody. AOL's Shoutcast remains the top platform/destination in the music radio segment, with 48.4% of total listening hours for the year, followed by Clear Channel Online, Yahoo Music, AOL Radio Networks and Pandora.

The two leading subscription services combined captured approximately 4% of listening hour share in 2007. Internet Music Radio ad billings came in at 80 million in 2007 for audio ads, up 194% over the 26.9 million comparable in 2006. Adding another 12-15 million generated through video ads placed inside music channel environments, the market was worth 92 million in 2007. Based on billings of 92 million and 25% of inventory sold, the market achieved 17.5% maturity in 2007, and forecast to reach 26%-29% in 2008. CC Online, with experienced cross platform sales personnel, has been among the most assertive brands allocating avails against listening time, with 6-8 minutes per listening hour dedicated to ad inventory.


Ratings & Research
Nielsen to launch Homescan panel in China
The Nielsen Company announced the launch of a Homescan consumer purchase panel in China. With over 40,000 households, this will be the largest consumer purchasing panel available in China, the world's fastest growing market. The panel's size and design will provide marketers with a far superior capability to measure and understand the purchasing behavior of Chinese consumers. "The launch of the Homescan panel is a significant expansion of our capabilities in China," said Mitch Barns, President of Nielsen Greater China. "It is also a critical step in our commitment to offer comprehensive and integrated services in China, all focused on the goal of helping our clients grow through better understanding of consumers and markets."


Transactions
325K KBMI-FM Roma TX from BMKP RGV License Company LP, a subsidiary of Border Media Partners LLC (Thomas Castro) to Rio Grande Bible Institute Inc. (Wendell F. Johnson, Lawrence Windle et al). 50K escrow, balance in cash at closing. Buyer is non-profit entity. [File date 1/25/08.]


Stock Talk
Another messy day...
With the Dow down some 143 points yesterday on continued recession fears and a weak manufacturing report, radio stocks were down-just about across the board. Up exceptions included Beasley, Citadel, and Saga.


Radio Stocks

Here's how stocks fared on Thursday

Company Symbol Close Change Company Symbol Close Change

Arbitron*

ARB

41.42

-0.60

Google

GOOG

502.86

-6.14

Beasley*

BBGI

5.75

+0.05

Hearst-Argyle

HTV

21.61

-0.29

CBS CI. B CBS

24.51

-0.73

Journal Comm.

JRN

7.42

-0.07

CBS CI. A CBSa

24.49

-0.71

Lincoln Natl.

LNC

53.57

-0.65

Citadel* CDL
1.34 +0.02

Radio One, Cl. A

ROIA

1.39

-0.27

Clear Channel*

CCU

30.74

-0.89

Radio One, Cl. D*

ROIAK

1.39

-0.27

Cox Radio*

CXR

11.43

-0.73

Regent*

RGCI

0.95

-0.02

Cumulus*

CMLS

5.65

-0.30

Saga Commun.*

SGA

6.00

+0.06

Debut Bcg.

DBTB

1.02

unch

Salem Comm.*

SALM

3.51

unch

Disney

DIS

32.27

-0.31

Sirius Sat. Radio

SIRI

2.92

-0.08

Emmis*

EMMS

2.72

-0.27

Spanish Bcg.*

SBSA

1.60

-0.03

Entercom*

ETM

12.43

-0.21

Westwood One*

WON

1.77

-0.02

Entravision

EVC

6.04

-0.29

XM Sat. Radio

XMSR

12.35

-0.36

Fisher

FSCI

30.86

-0.19

-

-

-

-

-

*Component of the RBR Radio Index


Bounceback

Send Us Your OpinionsWe want to
hear from you.

This is your column, so send your comments and
a photo to [email protected]

RBR/TVBR helps all when asked

Dear Jim,
I wish to take this opportunity to accept your generous offer to extend my e-mail subscription to Radio Business Report under the kind terms (free!) described in your 02/08/08 RBR #27 message. Having lost my job at Entercom (as VP-Engineering for 17 years) it really means a lot to stay connected to the industry news through the authoritative & interesting RBR. Thank you for the extended hand to all of us who have felt the economic downturn so directly.

My best regards,
Marty Hadfield

And the RAB comments
just keep on comin'

I think the "big market" radio business is tanking because most of the good radio sales people have been fired. I don't know how many times I have been called in the last 10 years or by major market sales reps that are going to be fired or have already been so because they were making too much money. They had put together a high paying list at a station or group and the top corporate management comes in and restructures the group eliminating their jobs and turning their list over to a new hire. Some people bailed early because they saw what was coming and did not want to have the stigma of "just fired." The radio industry no longer seems to be in the sales business and yet that is what radio stations are supposed to do for their clients but can't do for themselves because they don't have the talented people anymore.

Dave Garland
Dave Garland Media Brokerage
Houston, Texas


Below the Fold
Friday Intel Brief
Spot monitoring systems
How are spot & content monitoring providers improving their offerings...

Ad Business Report
Beer brewer Malternatives
Questioned Anheuser & Miller are facing questions from a posse of state AGs...

Media Markets & Money
Alt-ernat plan for WCND
WCND-AM Shelbyville KY, east of Louisville, was part of a deal between...

Internet Business Report
Online listening
Chart 4.8 billion listening hours in '07...




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RBR Radar 2008
Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Radio is down in the month
The good news is that it will be easy to score a better revenue performance than radio scored during the month of January 2008 as reported by the Radio Advertising Bureau and Miller Kaplan Arase & Co. The bad news is we have to talk about January 2008. Total revenues for the month went 6% in the wrong direction. The ugliness breaks down like this: Local was down -5%, national was down -13%, for a combined spot drop of -7%. Unfortunately, the crystal ball readers on Wall Street are seeing more of the same stretching out month after month into the future.

RBR observation: We're reminded of an old Woody Allen joke back when he was doing stand-up. He said that typically an audience liked for the artist to finish up a performance with a positive comment. "I don't have a positive comment," he admitted. "Would you settle for two negatives?" We don't have much of a positive comment either, but we do note a silver lining in the ever-increasing non-spot category. Most of that cash is internet-based, and there are few better ways to drive internet traffic than via broadcast ads. We'd try to use that non-spot category any way we can to boost the bread-and-butter traditional spot numbers.
02/21/08 RBR #36

Arbitron: PUR, Format trends
down from Summer Book
In Arbitron's Fall book numbers, Format Trends and Persons Using Radio (PUR) were down significantly-record-breaking--especially among the youngest demos for PUR. For instance, From the Summer to Fall book, Teens 12-17 dropped a full point-from 9.1 to 8.1. The biggest format drops from the Summer book included Oldies, Rock and Smooth Jazz. But some were up-like News Talk and AC (a whopping 13.9 to 15.2). 12+ PURs were down from from 14.1 to 13.7-that's a lot in one year. The numbers were down almost across the boards, with younger demos down the most.

RBR observation: See the PUR numbers here in this special break out in RBR.
02/21/08 RBR #36

XM/Sirius pact is a year old
And it's still trapped in the bowels of the FCC and the Department of Justice. Meanwhile, The NAB and its retained research firm Carmel Group are continuing to apply pressure to keep the firms apart. the NAB reminded the FCC of the duo's shenanigans regarding terrestrial repeaters. There has long been concern among broadcasters that the satcasters would use the repeater network for locally originated programming; NAB asks the FCC to clear up the language so that this event does not occur.

RBR observation: Bravo NAB for keeping the pressure on and staying focused on the issue at hand as one plus one does not equal two it equals one and that one if approved becomes a monopoly.
02/20/08 RBR #35

Billboards reached millions on Super Tuesday results
Clear Channel Outdoor's digital billboard networks reached more than 12 million motorists and commuters during last week's Super Tuesday voting session, providing the public with real-time results of the Presidential Election Primaries through live RSS-feeds from msnbc.com.

RBR observation: Ok, these stats are very impressive but if radio learns anything but this brief report is the word - Digital - and the reach of the message, awesome.
02/20/08 RBR #35

Carnegie's Observation:
Stop Talking the Talk -
Start Walking the Walk
By engaging in the business environment that is now here - Digital Media. This is not a cheap shot but a wake up call. Last week I attended my umpteenth RAB and on a scale of 1 to 10 it was around a 4. I put it into perspective - the last 25 years I have seen five different Presidents at the RAB. A trade association president receives his or her marching orders from the board of directors and executive committee. The president's duty is then to execute the plan. Ok, lets look at this - executing a plan by a board of directors - if I am not mistaken the RAB board is made up in part by a number of CEOs running radio companies that are publicly traded, and they are having real tough times. The fish stinks at the head.
02/19/08 RBR #34




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