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Volume 23, Issue 58, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Thursday Morning March 23rd, 2006

Radio News ®

Ratings RFP selection
in high gear
Phase two presentations begin today from the three finalists in the Next-Generation Electronics Ratings Evaluation Team selection process for radio ratings (3/10/06 RBR #49). The Media Audit/Ipsos goes first, with Arbitron and Mediamark Research to follow in the next couple of days. In a Wall Street conference call yesterday arranged by Bear Stearns, The Media Audit President Bob Jordan revealed that his company will propose a roll-out schedule even more aggressive than the one that Arbitron unveiled for its Portable People Meter earlier this month (3/15/06 RBR #52). Jordan said The Media Audit/Ipsos will commit to deploying its Smart Cell Phone-based electronic audience measurement system in 11 markets in 2007. "We can move fast in America because it's already been done in Europe," said The Media Audit Exec. VP Phillip Beswick. He also said that the proposed system will be entering phase one of the accreditation process with the Media Ratings Council in a few weeks, with completion expected in 6-12 months. Look for pricing information in a few weeks, but Jordan says it will be "very competitive." And if its proposal is accepted by the radio industry, The Media Audit/Ipsos plans to start talking with TV owners as well about competing with Nielsen. Some other tidbits from yesterday's presentation: Potential panelists without Smart Cell Phones will be offered units to use, but people who absolutely don't want to carry a cell phone will be given "dumb" phones that won't make or receive calls, but do report radio listening; Data will be collected every few minutes, with no need for a docking station; And Cumulus and Univision have also agreed to encode for the first test in Houston.

New analyst sitting on the radio sidelines
He insists he's not a bear on radio stocks, but new Credit Suisse First Boston radio sector analyst John Klim is telling investors they should wait for a more attractive entry point before buying radio stocks. He sees radio industry revenues rising 2.2% this year and, while more consolidation is needed, he thinks current multiples could prevent such deal-making in the near term. Since the radio industry is a mature one, he suggests that companies should be looking to leverage up their balance sheets to raise dividend yields. Klim notes that radio stock prices have been volatile for many years, which could be good news for investors. "We believe investors should be agile, as the sector's volatility could present investment opportunities," he wrote. But for now, he's staying on the sidelines. In his initial analysis of the sector, Klim rates Entercom, Radio One and Salem "outperform," Clear Channel, Cox Radio, Cumulus, Entravision and Westwood One "neutral," and Citadel, Emmis and Saga "underperform." Like so many other radio analysts, Klim also has the outdoor sector in his portfolio. He rates Clear Channel Outdoor "neutral" and Lamar "underperform."

Shots fired: Telco vs
vertically-integrated cable
Verizon is trying to break into the MVPD business in New York and Massachusetts. It would like to do so with a full programming lineup including play-by-play broadcasts of local professional sports teams. The problem: Many of them are shown on Rainbow Media Holdings, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Cablevision Systems. Verizon has taking its complaints to the FCC. Verizon says that Cablevision is in violation of the 1992 Cable Consumer Protection Act and is filing a "formal program access complaint" so that it can gain access to sport programming for its own FiOS TV operations in New York and New England. At issue is carriage of Fox Sports Network New York, Fox Sports Network New England and Madison Square Garden Network, including access to play-by-play for New York Knicks, New York Rangers, New York Islanders and the New Jersey Devils in the New York area and the Boston Celtics and others in New England. Verizon VP FiOS TV Terry Denson content strategy & acquisition said, "Cablevision's consistent refusal to negotiate carriage terms clearly is an attempt to block competition and preserve its market position and the 1992 Cable Act specifically prohibits this type of refusal to deal." In a release, Denson commented, "Instead of negotiating provisions of the programming, Cablevision and Rainbow have sought details of Verizon's video deployment plans - - information only valuable to Cablevision in its capacity as the only cable company in many areas where Verizon seeks to provide competition."

RBR observation: Opponents of the deal splitting Adelphia Cablevision assets between Comcast and Time Warner cited this very objection - - that the cable giants would be further solidifying their control of certain regions and then sitting on what is considered to be must-have programming. This figures to be yet another knock-down, drag-out battle between the cable and telco interests.

MAB lobbies for additional broadcast outlets
The National Association of Broadcasters (NAB) has been working to help telcos into the MVPD business. The national association has been joined by at least one at the state level. The Michigan Association of Broadcasters (MAB) is backing a bill to ease telco entry into the business. "These bills would allow more providers to offer programming to the consumer - - including that of local broadcasters," said Karole White, President/CEO of the MAB. "We are strongly in favor of changes that would offer more competition in delivery of video services to Michigan citizens and provide new ways for them to receive the local programming they want." White is looking to make sure that all local over-the-air service, both television and radio, are part of any new delivery system, stressing their coverage of local community news, weather, traffic, and perhaps most importantly, local emergency coverage. Not to mention the benefits of competition. "The citizens of Michigan should demand more choices and urge their lawmakers to support bills that would give them that choice. More providers mean more competition, more choices, better customer service and better prices."

FTC cracks down on insert advertiser
Valassis Communications Inc. is one of the top two providers of newspaper coupon insert packages in the USA. The other is News America Marketing Valassis recently got the attention of the Federal Trade Commission and in the process, drew attention to the possibilities for abuse when an industry boils down to two main adversaries. In a nutshell, according to the FTC, the industry has seen its rates decline from "6 dollars per full page per thousand booklets in 2001, to less than 5 dollars per full page per thousand booklets in 2004." To remedy this, the FTC claims it invited News America to allocate territories and thus end a price war which had contributed to the declining rate card. We will note that News America had nothing to do with the infraction other than having to misfortune to be the object of Valassis' transgression. Unless you happen to be familiar with this case, you'd never guess in a million years how news of the plan came to light - - and no, News America didn't tattle. So we'll just tell you. The President/CEO of Valassis spelled out and offered the arrangement during a quarterly earnings conference call. The result is a consent decree which "bars the company from inviting collusion and from actually entering into or implementing a collusive scheme." It'll be in effect for 20 years.

The announced details of the Valassis plan
From the FTC: "During the July 2004 call, Valassis' president and chief executive officer opened the company's second quarter earnings call by detailing its strategy to increase FSI prices. Specifically, the strategy included: 1) abandoning its 50 percent market share goal; 2) aggressively defending its existing customer base and market share; 3) submitting price bids at levels substantially above current market prices for current News America customers; and 4) monitoring News America's response to its new business strategies. If News America competed for Valassis customers and market share in the future, then the price war would resume."

RBR observation: Did you ever wonder if two entities involved in head-to-head competition have some kind of deal which is not working in your favor as a consumer or otherwise? Usually all you can do is scratch your head, grumble and fork over your cash. In that light, it was right neighborly of Valassis to come right out and share their scheme with the public at large. More to the point, it may shed some light on what might happen in a radio or TV market when the number of reasonably popular independent media voices shrinks into the low single digits.

Ad Business Report TM

More on Mandel's Arbitron comments from yesterday
We asked Arbitron spokesperson Thom Mocarsky to clarify what Jon Mandel, Chairman/MediaCom US and Chief Global Buying Officer MediaCom Worldwide, meant yesterday (3/22/06 TVBR #57) by saying, "Arbitron is also committing to me that we're going to get the same stuff the stations get. And radio is even a bigger problem than television. We get quarterly numbers in radio. Stations get better numbers than quarterly...So it's not as good as the commercial ratings, but it's still going to be a hell of a lot better." Mocarsky explained it's all about PPM: "What Mandel is upset about is that TV broadcasters get access to data at a more granular level than agencies do. [He] must be talking about Arbitrends when he says: 'Stations get better numbers than quarterly. Now, are you going to tell me a Monday drive time in April is the same as a Friday drive time in the ass end of June? No.' In a PPM world, both agencies and stations will have access to MONTHLY reports (and monthly reports that cover one month of listening) at the AQH level. In Houston in August, we will release a JULY PPM report, Covering just the month of July. It will have the full sample size because PPM is a panel, not a survey. Both stations and agencies will have access to the same data, just as they now both have access to the quarterly reports at the same level of granularity (if they are willing to pay for that access)."

Traffic.com fuels Lexus
dealerships with targeted ads
in 11-market effort
Traffic.com is partnering with Lexus on targeted, cross-platform advertising solutions for dealerships in 11 major markets. Traffic.com offers Lexus the ability to work with one source to promote its brand across multiple media platforms. Lexus' messages are tied to relevant content that consumers need multiple times per day via a variety of platforms including broadcast, web, phone alerts, e-mail, and mobile device. The agreement currently includes Atlanta, Chicago, Denver, Houston, Los Angeles, Miami, Sacramento, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa, and Washington, D.C. The campaign has been launched in Los Angeles; advertising across Lexus' other local markets will roll out during the next few weeks. With this agreement, Lexus is provided the opportunity to maximize local exposure to Traffic.com's mobile traffic service users with a special direct connect service with which phone alert recipients are given an option to immediately connect to the closest Lexus dealership with a voice command or press of a button.

''Stan Fest'' to raise money ad exec diagnosed with cancer
A fundraiser has been organized to benefit Seattle agency vet, Stan Raymond, recently diagnosed with cancer. To assist Stan, an account manager at Sedgwick Rd., and his family during his recovery, a benefit concert will be held today to raise money from the local advertising community. "Stan Fest" features local bands. The event is being hosted by Sedgwick Rd., Publicis West and The Premier. Employees from both Sedgwick Rd. and Publicis West are donating not only money, but their time as well. A silent auction will also be held, featuring goods and services from local Seattle companies. For more info: [email protected]

Media Business Report TM

Time Inc. pays 8.8M in magazine subscription settlement
Magazine giant Time Inc., a unit of Time Warner, isn't admitting any wrongdoing, but it is changing some of its practices and paying 8.8 million bucks to settle claims that it deceptively marketed and billed consumer for magazine subscription renewals. People in seven states - - Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania and West Virginia - - will be eligible to receive 4.3 million in refunds, while the additional 4.5 million will go to the states to cover their investigation costs. According to Pennsylvania Attorney General Tom Corbett, who announced the settlement, Time Inc. had been sending out subscription renewal notices made to resemble billing invoices. "We believe that many Time magazine subscribers paid this notice under the belief that it was a billing invoice for the outstanding amount that they in fact owed. Other Time magazine subscribers said they received several of these notices and only reluctantly paid it in fear of repercussions such as a legal action or adverse credit reporting. This deceptive or perceived scare tactic method to renew a magazine is at best unfair and at worst illegal," said Corbett. In settling the case, Time Inc. has agreed to stop using renewal notices that look like bills, honor all requests for cancellations and refund people who are charged for magazines they did not order. Customers eligible for refunds under the settlement will be receiving packets from Time Inc. marked "refund offer enclosed."

Media Markets & Money TM

Mapleton spins Santa Maria FM
George Ruiz and his Emerald Wave Media will achieve duopoly status in the Santa Maria-Lompoc CA market with the acquisition of KWSZ-FM from Adam Nathanson and his Mapleton Communications. Mapleton will still have a pair of AMs in the market. The KWSZ-FM pricetag is 1.5M. Licensed to Lompoc, it'll pair up with KTAP-AM in the same town and KIDI-FM, licensed to Guadalupe. Mapleton retains KTME-AM Lompoc and KUHL-AM Santa Maria.

Washington Media Business Report TM

Five more from Auction No. 37 cleared
Cumulus is among the bidders who have only to make their final FCC payment to get the ball rolling on CPs won during last year's Auction No. 37. The quintet have until 4/5/06 to make those payments (really, they have until 4/19/06 if they want to utilize the grace period to its fullest extent). The Cumulus CP is earmarked for Hazelton ND. Other approvals-pending are for Visionary Related Entertainment in Kaunakakai HI, F.T.G. Broadcasting in Annville KY, L.T. Simes & Raymond Simes in Friars Point MS and Kemp Communications in Overton NV.

Entertainment Media Business Report TM

HD-2 formats reviewed in DC market
Here's a quick review of the current state of HD-2 formats in DC, and some quick suggestions. We look at stations currently airing HD-2. Those scheduled for HD-2 formats are not included (Like DC-101, which streams its HD-2 signal on the net, but not on-air yet).

RBR observation: HD-2 formats need to compete with the format variety of satellite. They should be perceived and promoted as the free, viable alternative to satellite in each market, even if some formats don't "test" well yet. Each market's HD-2 channels need to be absolutely refreshing and unique to get (especially) the younger listeners' attention:
| Read More... |

Ratings & Research

Mobile video attracting
young males
Mobile TV and video usage is growing slowly, but is attracting a higher proportion of the young adult and male demographic, reports Telephia. According to Telephia, 1.5% or roughly three million wireless subscribers in the U.S. streamed TV or played video content on their mobile devices in Q4 2005. Historical data from early 2005 show penetration of 1.4%. Younger mobile subscribers, age 18-24 have the highest penetration for mobile TV and video usage, securing a 3.3% rate, doubling since the beginning of 2005. Overall, men are more likely to stream TV and play video content on their wireless devices than women, showing a penetration rate of 1.8% or more than 3.5 million wireless subscribers during Q4 2005. Female mobile subscribers who accessed mobile TV and video content over their handsets had a rate of 1.2% in Q4 2005, equaling 2.5 million consumers, according to Telephia. "During this early adopter stage, audience demographics play a significant role in directing mobile companies how to best develop mobile TV and video content offerings," said Kanishka Agarwal, Vice President of New Products, Telephia. "The key for providers is to be able to understand the needs of these individual groups and supply targeted content that they will pay for."

Arbitron: Radio audience
highly engaged with Miami Dolphins
New custom research released by Arbitron shows live radio sports broadcasts generate a superior level of audience engagement; during the Miami Dolphins 2005 season, 53% of WAXY-AM listeners are more likely to stay turned in during a commercial break while listening to a Miami Dolphins game than during regular programming. The custom study, conducted by Arbitron on behalf of WAXY-AM, examines the unique value of live radio sports broadcasts. One in four adults age 18+ in the Miami Metro Area - which also includes the Fort Lauderdale and Hollywood areas - tuned to a live radio broadcast of the Miami Dolphins during the 2005 season. Over half of those who listened to at least one Dolphins game that season (56%) have a more positive response to advertisers who support their local team. In addition, 42% of these listeners feel they pay more attention to commercials when they are delivered live by the sportscasters. "Advertisers are beginning to focus on how consumer engagement effects ROI and this research shows that live sporting events dramatically increase audience engagement with radio," said Bill Rose, SVP, Marketing, U.S. Media Services, Arbitron. "Sports fans are passionate about their teams and advertising during live games can help transfer that enthusiasm to the brand." Game attendance is strongly reinforced by radio. Among those who have attended a Miami Dolphins game in the last two years, more than half (58%) listened to the pre-game broadcast on radio, while more than three-quarters (77%) listened to the post-game analysis. Nearly one-fifth of the fans listened to the game while at the football stadium. Arbitron collected listening information for 15 Miami Dolphin games aired on WAXY-AM between September 2005 and January 1, 2006. A total of 1,000 adults age 18+ living in the Miami metro participated in the telephone based survey. Interviews were conducted the day after the radio broadcast of each live game with the exception of December 24, 2005.

Transactions

3.1M WEVX-FM/WQQB-FM, WEBX-FM & WGKC-FM Champaign IL (Rantoul, Tuscola, Mahomet IL) from AAA Entertainment LLC (Peter H. Ottmar) to RadioStar Inc. (James D. Glassman). 200K escrow, balance in cash at closing. Existing superduopoly. LMA 2/27/06 @ 15.8K/month. [File date 3/1/06.]

N/A WMEL-AM Melbourne FL from David Ryder, Receiver to Twin Towers Broadcasting Inc. (John A. McKinley, John E. Harper). Receiver returns station to original owner Harper, but with McKinley added as 73% stockholder in cashless transaction. [File date 2/27/06.]

Stock Talk

Generally an up day
Strong earnings from Morgan Stanley and a union buyout deal for General Motors and Delphi put investors in a buying mood on Wednesday. The Dow Industrials rose 82 points, or 0.7%, to 11,317.

Radio stocks were mostly higher. The Radio Index gained 0.614, or 0.4%, to 160.454. Salem jumped 3.5% as CSFB analyst John Klim initiated coverage with an "outperform" rating. But his other two outperforms didn't get a boost. Radio One was up only slightly and Entercom was down for the day. Wednesday's other strong performer was SBS, up 3%.

Radio Stocks

**Here's how stocks fared on Wednesday**
Company	Symbol	Close		Change	Company	Symbol	Close		Change
Arbitron	ARB		33.85	-0.31	Hearst-Argyle	HTV		23.76	+0.05
Beasley	BBGI		10.24	-0.27	Jeff-Pilot	JP		59.73	-0.01
CBS CI. B	CBS		25.08	+0.30	Journal Comm.	JRN		12.26	+0.03
CBS CI. A	CBSa		25.07	+0.34	Radio One, Cl. A	ROIA		7.66	+0.01
Citadel	CDL		11.31	-0.02	Radio One, Cl. D	ROIAK		7.69	+0.03
Clear Channel	CCU		29.42	-0.07	Regent	RGCI		4.50	+0.09
Cox Radio	CXR		13.43	-0.01	Saga Commun.	SGA		9.02	+0.13
Cumulus	CMLS		11.46	+0.18	Salem Comm.	SALM		13.98	+0.47
Disney	DIS		27.79	-0.31	Sirius Sat. Radio	SIRI		4.86	-0.26
Emmis	EMMS		16.65	+0.06	Spanish Bcg.	SBSA		5.16	+0.15
Entercom	ETM		28.24	-0.24	Univision	UVN		33.33	+0.27
Entravision	EVC		8.11	+0.06	Westwood One	WON		11.33	-0.07
Fisher	FSCI		42.62	+0.39	XM Sat. Radio	XMSR		21.12	-0.24
Gaylord	GET		44.14	-0.03	-	-	-	-	-

Bounceback

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Below the Fold

Ad Business Report
More comments on Arbitron
Radio is even a bigger problem than television...

Media Business Report
Time Inc. pays 8.8M
In magazine settlement...

Media Markets & Money
Mapleton spins
Santa Maria FM...

Entertainment Media
Business Report
HD-2 formats reviewed
In DC market and some quick suggestions...

Radio Media Moves

Changes by the Bay
Mike Preston has been named Vice President of Programming for KCBS-AM & KFRC-FM San Francisco, effective Monday, April 3rd. He was most recently VP of CHR Programming for CBS Radio and PD of KBKS-FM Seattle. Effective immediately, Ken Kohl will begin advising CBS Radio's six San Francisco stations as Vice President of News and Talk Programming. He will continue in his role as VP/GM for KIFR-FM.

Bevins to Connoisseur
David Bevins, most recently Market Manager for Radio One in Cleveland, has rejoined his former colleagues at Connoisseur Media, where he is now a corporate Vice President.

Upped in Houston
Cox Radio announced that Johnny Chiang has been promoted to Programming Operations Manager of Cox Radio Houston, which includes KHPT-FM, KKBQ-FM, KLDE-FM and KTHT-FM. He was formerly Program Director of KKBQ and KTHT and will continue to oversee day-to-day programming of those stations in his new role.

Stations for Sale

Exclusive Listing
FM Radio Station in South
Florida. Great start-up opportunity
for a radio entrepreneur or a great addition for a radio group.
Please contact Joel B. Day
202-478-3737 (x3)

More News Headlines

Tough times
at the Times
Soft advertising for its New England newspaper group is hurting Q1 performance for the New York Times Company. "In February performance varied across the News Media Group. While The New York Times Media Group and the Regional Media Group posted gains, the New England Media Group's print advertising continued to be adversely affected by consolidation among its advertisers and spotty economic growth in the greater Boston market," said CEO Janet Robinson. The New York Times Company says it expects Q1 earnings per share of 22-24 cents, while the Thomson/First Call analysts' consensus prior to yesterday's announcement had been 29 cents. February ad revenues for the New York Times Media Group, which includes its NYC radio stations along with the flagship newspaper, were up 3.3% to 101.4 million. The new England Media Group, headed by the Boston Globe, saw revenues for the month plunge 12% to 31.2 million. Revenues for the Regional Media Group, the smaller market newspapers, rose 5.9% to 30.7 million. So, total newspaper/radio/online revenues for February were up a mere 0.4% to 163.3 million. Group-wide, retail was down 4.1%, national down 0.4% and classified up 4.8%. February revenues for the NY Times TV group were up 3.9% to 10.1 million. However, excluding recently acquired KAUT-TV (Ch. 43, UPN/CW) Oklahoma City, the company said TV revenues were essentially flat. Growth in telecommunications and restaurant advertising was offset by weakness in automotive and packaged goods. The company said revenues for recently acquired About.com were up 75% from the previous owner's results to 5.4 million in February.

RBR Radar 2006

Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Brighter 2006 for CBS Corp
CBS and Viacom had lots of balls in the air as they juggled their formal separation on New Year's Eve. Now that things have settled down a bit and both have filed their annual 10-K reports with the SEC, Bear Stearns analyst Victor Miller has been looking at the numbers from CBS - - and he likes what he sees.
03/22/06 RBR #57

Wary of further indecency action
Citing the emergence of family tiers on the menus of MVPDs, the multi-industry educational campaign headed by ex-MPAA honcho Jack Valenti on available program blocking tools, and the recent fines the FCC was able to levy within the existing legal framework, Senate Commerce Committee Chairman Ted Stevens (R-AK) cautioned against further legislation which could drag the entire package down in the courts.

RBR observation: The FCC may have already gone too far, of course. Both CBS and NBC seem ready to press their cases in the courts.
03/22/06 RBR #57

Two more face possible
Moody's downgrades
New York Times Company already facing a possible debt ratings downgrade two more companies with operations in both newspapers and broadcasting are facing possible downgrades by Moody's Investors Service. The ratings firm has placed Tribune Company's 500 billion in senior unsecured long term debt on review (but not its commercial paper), along with both the senior unsecured long term debt and commercial paper of the E.W. Scripps Company, which total 1.1 billion.
03/21/06 RBR #56

Newspaper industry launches
50 million dollar trade campaign
More than 700 newspapers have joined together to reinforce their value message to planners and buyers with simultaneous publication of new campaign ads in their papers and websites. The new tag reads, "Newspaper Advertising, a Destination, Not a Distraction."

RBR observation: Seems the stuff you would wrap fish with is not taking it any more newspapers fighting back and using their websites as a tool. Learn from this as many advertisers like to see clients spend money to reinforce their product.
03/21/06 RBR #56

Binoculars trained on FCC
Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) has had a keen interest in the battle over media ownership consolidation, and now that he's joined with his colleagues in the Commerce Committee in approving a fifth FCC commissioner (and third Republican), he's making sure that they remember he has a keen interest. And that's not all - - he has a posse.

RBR observation: The ownership rulemaking, at the FCC level, has been a strict exercise in party-line politics. But on Capitol Hill, it has been anything but that. With only six signatures, the Dorgan letter manages a 50-50 party split - - which likely wouldn't hold up were this a poll of the full Senate. However, he did not have to limit his hunt for Republicans to the moderate wing of the party. Watch out as this guy is not giving up being a pain.
03/20/06 RBR #55

Dickeys eye baseball
The latest radio guys to want to own a baseball team are the Dickey brothers who have been approved by Major League Baseball to bid on the Atlanta Braves.

RBR observation: The greater fool theory is always in effect when talking about pro sports franchises. They're a big headache and they don't make much money, if any, but eventually you get to sell it to another newly rich guy who wants to be able to brag about owning a pro sports team. That said, the brothers are to be applauded for not trying to drag their public company shareholders into the transaction, which would likely be a drag on Cumulus' stock - - as Jeff Smulyan's bid for the Washington Nationals is for Emmis. Only thing RBR knows is the brothers are just trolling for the Braves.
03/17/06 RBR #54

Ford has a better idea: PPM now
"What are you waiting for?" asked Mark Kaline, Global Media Manager of Ford Motor Company as he made a pitch for radio to implement Arbitron's Portable People Meter (PPM). Kaline argued that "Radio cannot afford to wait for the perfect solution,"

RBR observation: Kaline is correct in his observation of 'good research also important and MRC accreditation "a must." Radio executives 'Stop trying to Re-Invent the Wheel.' Radio is already looked at as a 3rd class medium and this is not a limbo contest to see how Low Can You Go.
03/16/06 RBR #53

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