RBR's Daily Morning Epaper

Volume 22, Issue 71, Jim Carnegie, Editor & Publisher

Monday Morning April 11th, 2005

Radio News®

RBR observation:
Washington should stay out of broadcast ratings
We can't imagine why Rupert Murdoch thinks he, or any other broadcaster, would be better off by having the federal government regulate broadcast ratings. For that matter, Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) is a former broadcaster, so you'd think he would have more sense. But no, they are the two people pushing the hardest to inject the Washington bureaucracy into broadcast ratings - - and Nielsen's Local People Meters (LPMs), in particular. They are horribly wrong and must be stopped. | More... |

ABC-TV bows out of Houston PPM test
Although the ABC O&O in Philadelphia, WPVI-TV (Ch. 6), encoded for the first US test of Arbitron's Portable People Meter (PPM), ABC has elected not to encode at KTRK-TV (Ch. 13) for this year's test in Houston. "We have some concerns about the methodology used and we also have some concerns about the technology employed and we have from the very beginning had dialog with Arbitron to address these concerns," said Pat Liguori, VP of Research for the ABC O&O TV Stations. So, if there are concerns about change, why didn't she have similar concerns about Nielsen's deployment of Local People Meters (LPM)? "LPM's technology has been used for 17 years, so it's something that we've known and have used successfully," she said. At Arbitron, VO of Communications Thom Mocarsky had this to say: "It's the same as with Cox Radio and Radio One. We're going to work with them, we're still working with them. We understand their concerns and we're working closely with them." He noted that no actual ratings will be coming out of the Houston test until June, so there's still plenty of time for ABC's TV station to come onboard. While the O&O TV station, KTRK, is not encoding for PPM in Houston, other media outlets owned by Disney are, including ESPN on cable and KMIC-AM, the Radio Disney O&O.

RBR observation: The big change from any current Nielsen meter to Arbitron's PPM is that PPM is built on technology that picks up audio - - from radio, TV, cable, movie theaters and in store. What apparently has ABC concerned is how that will change the definition of a viewer. What if the audio from a TV is picked up in another room by someone who isn't watching the screen at all? What if someone is watching a sports event, but has the audio turned all the way down - - either to listen to radio play-by-play or to have no sound at all? Some would argue that the best way to deal with such questions is to run tests, such as the one this year in Houston, but the folks at ABC think more work needs to be done before going that far.

Infinity wins 17.2 million judgment
in WRMF case
A jury awarded 17.2 million Friday to Infinity Broadcasting/WEAT-FM, the former employer of popular on-air personality Jennifer Ross because she breached her contract with WEAT (Sunny 104.3) and jumped to rival, WRMF-FM, reported the Palm Beach Post. Ross, the current morning co-host on WRMF, is liable for 1 million. James Crystal Licenses, the former owner of WRMF, must pay the remaining 16.2 million, according to the verdict. Palm Beach Broadcasting is the current owner and carries no liability in the case. Attorney Rob Haile, who represented Ross and James Crystal, plans to ask Circuit Judge Diana Lewis to set aside the jury's verdict. Haile believes the decision is flawed and the amount of damages awarded excessive. Haile also plans to argue that an Infinity witness who testified on Sunny's lost earnings due to Ross' departure offered only speculation and not facts. If Lewis doesn't set aside the verdict, Haile will appeal the case to the 4th District Court of Appeal, he said. Nevertheless, if Ross fails to prevail in court, she won't have to pay the 1 million because James Crystal is required to pay what she owes. Attorney Alan Rosenthal, who represents Infinity, said the verdict shows that jurors understood that the actions by Ross and James Crystal violated her contract. He said jurors sent a message in awarding the 17.2 million, when Rosenthal asked for only 13.3 million in total damages.

Names to watch at Commerce Committee
Sen. Ted Stevens (R-AK), chair of the powerful Senate Committee on Commerce, Science and Transportation, has named new members to the Committee's staff. A post with at Commerce is often a springboard to a post at the FCC, and often, vice versa, as in the case of two new staffers. Both come from the FCC - - and don't be surprised if sometime in the future, both head back. Harry Wingo is the new Counsel on telecommunications issues. Among other career stops, he was Special Counsel to the General Counsel of the FCC, and moved from there to his most recent slot, Legal Advisor to the FCC's Wireless Telecommunications Bureau Chief. Paul Nagle is also a new Counsel on telecommunications issues. Nagle also comes from the FCC, where he was an Attorney-Advisor for the Office of Legislative Affairs specializing in broadband, wireline and homeland security.

Transaction outlook: 2005, Part 1
Noting the uncertainty over FCC ownership rules, we asked a number of brokers what sort of transactions are going to get done in radio and TV this year. Today, we hear from Glenn Serafin of Serafin Bros. "No one I'm dealing with is wringing their hands about the rules. The change in ownership limits from signal definition to market definition is a sword that cuts both ways. It both restrains and enables. Some operators who were prohibited from owning stations in adjacent markets can now do so. None are being forced to divest stations in markets where they are 'over subscribed,' so to speak. So, what's the problem? No one with a dog in this fight is complaining, at least to me."
Who's looking to buy and who's on the sidelines? "I'll take the last question first. On the sidelines are companies that have not performed. They are both public and private companies whose growths in revenues and cash flows are pitiful. These companies have lost the faith of their stockholders and investors, so they effectively are prohibited from expanding until they get their houses in order. In the meantime, capital sources are throwing cash at companies that have scored huge gains and created value in what others erroneously believe is a bad economic environment.

Media's fine line: sales v. editorial
Media companies face daily one of the toughest balancing acts in the world of business - - fulfilling the news organization's watchdog role which at times calls for criticism of major corporations, and trying to sell ads to those same major corporations. Tribune's Los Angeles Times has just run afoul of one of its big accounts. General Motors, reacting to criticism of the LA Times voiced by car dealers in the area, decided to pull all advertising from the newspaper, according to a Reuters report. The dealers were complaining about factual errors and misrepresentations. Although GM did not specify, it is believed a critical article by the paper's automotive reporter spurred the action.

RBR observation: Editorial independence is of paramount concern when things like this come up, as long as critical reporting is accurate and fair. Failure to cover the news in a truthful manner, or allowing your media outlet to practice self-censorship to avoid trouble with clients, is a prescription for becoming irrelevant. If you lose relevance, you lose audience, and then you lose advertising anyway. However, we also understand, as members of RBR's editorial department, that we are writing this observation from our editorial department perspective. We recognize that our sales department - - striving mightily to make sure there is food on the table for all RBR staffers, sales and editorial alike - - might not state the issue in quite the same way. So the balancing act will go on as long as news and sales co-exist in the same business model. Have advertisers pulled mega contracts from RBR/TVBR because they have not agreed or liked what has been printed in the past 22 years and recently last year and never have returned? Yes. But, in a nutshell, there is a rule at RBR/TVBR - It is called integrity with guidance of common sense and commitment to quality content and presentation.

Adbiz©

MindShare's Cohen, Maltby upped to President
MindShare NA has promoted both Shari Cohen and Jason Maltby to the post of president, co-executive directors of national broadcast. Previously they were Co-Directors of National Broadcast. As part of their new positions, they will become part of the Office of the President, the management group that includes Marc Goldstein, CEO; Kathy Crawford, president, MindShare Local Broadcast; and Joe Scangamor, senior partner, chief financial officer, MindShare Americas. Both will continue to run the National Broadcast groups in NY and Chicago. Maltby is an 11-year veteran of MindShare and its predecessor agency, Ogilvy & Mather. Cohen joined MindShare in 2001 from ESPN to run the media shop's Unilever business.

Discovery's Abruzzese predicts
500M move from broadcast to cable
Joe Abruzzese, Discovery Networks' President/Ad Sales, predicted last week much as 500 million will shift from broadcast TV to cable in the 2005-2006 upfront season. He made the forecast at a press conference following the company's upfront presentation to buyers 4/6 at Lincoln Center in NYC. He also disclosed Discovery plans to sell about half of its inventory in the upfront and hold the rest for scatter. However, in our May print issue, buyers and sellers both explain why the erosion from broadcast to cable has flattened. On the buyer side, we speak to Carat Americas' David Verklin, MediaCom's Jon Mandel, Chrysler's Julie Roehm, OMD's Ray Warren, PHD's Steve Grubbs and Harry Keeshan, The Richards Group's Ira Berger and Universal McCann's Jean Pool.

Miller Brewing names new CMO
The Miller Brewing Co. announced the retirement of Chief Marketing Officer Bob Mikulay and appointed Tom Long, President of Coca-Cola's Northwest European Division, in his place.

May - Radio & Television Business Report
The First Real Monthly Business Media Magazine

Upfront looms on the horizon
May Radio & Television Business Report focuses on One-On-One interviews with the money Ad Players: David Verklin, Steve Grubbs, Harry Keeshan, Jon Mandel, Ray Warren, Ira Berger, Jean Pool, Julie Roehm and others that read TVBR religiously. They're participating because they want you to know what they need to help make informed decisions. They comment on programming that they view promising for this upfront; they examine thoroughly the real issues that affect the marketplace as all are getting busy. This is a large story already and getting bigger.

Watch for the May Issue of
Radio & Television Business Report. The 2005-2006 Upfront Examined.

Advertising space is limited, contact:
June Barnes [email protected]
Jim Carnegie [email protected]

Media Markets & MoneyTM

Cumulus spins off Virginia orphan
WBWR-FM Bedford, smack in the middle of Roanoke and Lynchburg, is going to be the fourth FM in the far-flung market for Centennial Broadcasting. At the same time, it snips off what for Cumulus is basically a loose end. Frank Boyle, who engineered the buy for Centennial, said, "It's a win-win for both Cumulus and Centennial. WBWR-FM is a Cumulus singleton - - 65 miles from its New River Valley roup Mother Ship in Blacksburg - - with Roanoke in between. Bedford is sorta half way between Roanoke and Lynchburg - - with good signal into Roanoke." So Allen Shaw's Centennial gets an extra outlet in its battle v. Clear Channel and Mel Wheeler clusters, and Cumulus clears out a station it had little use for - - in fact, it was in the odd situation of simulcasting a station from the aforementioned smaller market, WBRW-FM in Blacksburg. Bringing a more localized approach to the station's programming should also be a win for local listeners. Centennial will pay 1.9M for the station, putting it into a cluster with WZZI-FM Vinton and WZZU-FM/WLNI-FM Lynchburg. It will also spin WMNA AM & FM Gretna VA, well to the south of the market, to Burns Media. Cumulus came into WBWR-FM when it bought New River Radio last winter.

Close encounter in Beloit
Broker Dick Kozacko tells us the keys and the cash have been exchanged in the deal sending Oldies WGEZ-AM Beloit WI from Rego Ltd. to Alliance Communications. The 325K deal moves Alliance's Teresa N. Abick into her second market, along with WPNA-AM in Oak Park IL.

Washington Beat

Can Democrats catch 22 in Texas?
It appears that the national Democratic party is going to make a major push to capture the seat of House Majority Leader Tom Delay (R-TX), who represents the state's 22nd Congressional District in the Houston suburbs. "The Hammer" has been dogged by ethics questions, on top of the fact that he's coming off a surprisingly weak showing in the 2004 election, where he outspent a largely unknown opponent 2.9M to 630K, but won by only a 55%-41% margin. The Democrats have that individual, Richard Morrison, available to run again, as well as two other tempting possible candidates. One, according to the Associated Press, is Houston councilman Gordon Quan, who would be expected to poll well with the area's growing Asian population. The other is an out-of-work US Rep. named Nick Larson, who was put out of Congress by Delay's famous Texas redistricting plan.

RBR observation: This is sure to be one of the hottest, and most expensive, Congressional races in a long, long time. They're already spending money here. We don't think it will stop until the second Wednesday in November of 2006.

Ratings & Research

PPM wins the cover of NY Times mag
Arbitron's Portable People Meter (PPM) got a ton of free publicity yesterday as the main focus of an almost exclusively laudatory cover story in The New York Times Magazine. Nowhere to be seen was any comment from Cox Radio, Radio One or ABC Television about their objections to PPM - - not even any mention that some stations were refusing to encode for the Houston test. But there were favorable quotes from research chiefs David Poltrack at CBS and Alan Wurtzel at NBC Universal, along with Carat Americas CEO David Verklin. In fact, Verklin even referred to Arbitron's Project Apollo, which will use PPM for a national panel for single-source tracking of media consumption and buying activities, as the long-sought "holy grail" of measurement. The article by Jon Gertner did note that PPM, if adopted by Nielsen (and the article's focus was primarily on TV, rather than radio), would change the currency for TV ratings, noting the on-going battle within the industry from Nielsen's introduction of Local People Meters and the ratings changes which resulted. It also mentioned that there are questions about whether PPM may register viewing by picking up audio encoding even when the panelist isn't really watching the screen. But, Gertner wrote, "More significant, the PPM expands the boundaries of media consumption," picking up in-home, out-of home and in-office media usage, potentially across a wide range of media - - as Arbitron CEO Steve Morris explained, anything with audio can be encoded for PPM. Be sure to read more of Verklin's comments on the subject in our May upfront feature.

Sales

Using business intelligence tools
to increase sales
Today, broadcasters operate in a challenging environment and face increasing pressures from such factors as the economy, deregulation and competition. Many innovative managers are already using business intelligence (BI) or Analytics to gain sustained competitive advantage. Managers have the tools to make better decisions when they work with information interactively. Key questions that managers want answers to typically include: What will my revenue be for a given month or quarter?; Will I exceed the budget?; Am I currently under-performing? By how much?; Do I have the inventory to accommodate this revenue?; Do I need to adjust my rate card based on demand?; What is the net effect on my total revenue if I adjust the rates?; How is my revenue pacing this year compared to the same date last year?; How does it compare to my budget?; and What rates will help me reach my target revenue for each daypart, for different sellout levels?

Broadcast and cable managers make decisions in their businesses primarily based on information from their operational systems. They view information online and also run a variety of reports that are available with their sales and traffic systems. These systems provide information that is valuable in reaching conclusions and taking action. | More... |

TVBR - TV News

ABC-TV's Mike Shaw educates investors on the upfront
Mike Shaw, President/Sales and Marketing, ABC TV Network, presented a tutorial on upfront advertising hosted by Deutsche Bank Securities yesterday. Aside from the history lesson and details of the mechanics of the upfront, he reminded the investment and analyst community that, "I know you want to be predictive and I know you want to look at the upfront and the upfront results and declare winners and losers. It's not that easy, and it's just a component, albeit the most important, of the entire 52-week process. A number of factors affect what we do and how we do it, and it's not as easy as a snapshot of looking at who booked what in the upfront come June 15th and declaring, 'OK, you've won, you've lost, this company is on a roll, these guys aren't. Not to mention the fact that most of the programming that we sell in the upfront, particularly on the new programs, and this season is a marvelous example, don't even start until the following September. So you're talking about a process that occurs really three to four months before what we're measuring actually happens." He also stressed how the upfront was a lot about the rate of renewal: "What was the returning business and how did we write it? And the reception and the negotiation were really at this point, at the beginning of April - - there is nobody willing to show you their cards. We go through a very rigorous process, trying to get at the total dollars in the marketplace and ultimately like every other supplier, we have a hard time right up to the very end, in calling the marketplace. And that's right up until we get budgets."

TVBR observation: In other words as we stated last year, those thrilling days of yesterday are gone and upfront business will be an evolving process called Pump and dump. Good for local TV and Radio. Networks have yet to learn the real value of Content being King and Presentation Queen in their planning process. Plus using two C's - Commons sense and Commitment.

Monday Morning Makers & Shakers

Transactions: 2/28/05-3/4/05
The beginning of March saw a modest increase in deal value filed at the FCC, although the number of deals filed actually went down a smidge. A 32.1M Hispanic TV deal in Las Vegas accounted for over two thirds of that all by itself in what was really another slow week.

2/28/05-3/4/05	Total
Total Deals	9
AMs	5
FMs	6
TVs	1
Value	46.973M

| Complete Charts |

Radio Transactions of the Week
J Sports spends Mega millions in Beantown
| More... |

TV Transactions of the Week
Telemundo brings affil into the fold
| More... |

Transactions

4.5M WOPR-FM & WPRF-FM New Orleans (La Combe, Reserve LA) from Citadel Broadcasting Co. (Farid Suleman) to Southeastern Broadcasting Inc. (Wayne Dowdy). 225L escrow, balance in cash at closing. Superduopoly with WKSJ-FM Folsom LA and LMA of Guaranty Broadcasting's WKSY-FM Picayune LA. [File date 3/10/05.]

10 FM CP Mansfield LA from Hymn Time Inc. (Billie Jean Emert) to American Family Association (Donald E. Wildmon). cash. CP is for 91.7 mHz for Class C3 with 12 kW @ 328". [File date 3/11/05.]

10 FM CP Muncie IN from Hymn Time Inc. (Billie Jean Emert) to American Family Association (Donald E. Wildmon). Cash. CP is for 88.3 mHz for Class A with 200 W @ 295". [File date 3/11/05.]

Stock Talk

Stocks fall on GM and AIG concerns
Worries about General Motors and American International Group sent stock prices lower on Friday. The Dow Industrials fell 85 points, or 0.8%, to 10,461.

Radio stocks were no exception. The Radio Index dropped 2.879, or 1.3%, to 219.764. Saga had the worst day, falling 4.9%. Beasley dropped 3.8%.

Radio Stocks

**Here's how stocks fared on Friday**
Company	Symbol	Close		Change	Company	Symbol	Close		Change
Arbitron	ARB		43.37	-0.02	Jeff-Pilot	JP		48.84	-0.18
Beasley	BBGI		17.03	-0.68	Journal Comm.	JRN		17.07	-0.04
Citadel	CDL		13.85	-0.09	Radio One, Cl. A	ROIA		14.41	-0.13
Clear Channel	CCU		34.35	-0.38	Radio One, Cl. D	ROIAK		14.39	-0.08
Cox Radio	CXR		17.28	unch	Regent	RGCI		5.74	-0.12
Cumulus	CMLS		13.95	-0.16	Saga Commun.	SGA		15.60	-0.81
Disney	DIS		28.40	-0.30	Salem Comm.	SALM		19.35	-0.15
Emmis	EMMS		18.82	-0.11	Sirius Sat. Radio	SIRI		5.41	-0.06
Entercom	ETM		35.01	-0.37	Spanish Bcg.	SBSA		9.83	-0.34
Entravision	EVC		8.91	+0.04	Univision	UVN		27.96	-0.13
Fisher	FSCI		51.21	-0.59	Viacom, Cl. A	VIA		35.30	-0.24
Gaylord	GET		42.36	+0.12	Viacom, Cl. B	VIAb		35.12	-0.12
Hearst-Argyle	HTV		25.67	+0.11	Westwood One	WON		20.75	+0.10
Interep	IREP		0.51	unch	XM Sat. Radio	XMSR		30.67	-0.86
International Bcg.	IBCS		0.01	unch	-	-	-	-	-

__UNSUB__ to this email service.

Bounceback

Send Us Your Opinions We want to
hear from you.
This is your column, so send your comments to [email protected]

If you read last week's story in the New York Times about how satellite radio has terrestrial radio on the ropes, you may share the views of this broadcaster.

To the Editorial Board of the NY Times: When did it become permissible to do reporting without doing accurate field work? To cite an urban myth and pass it off as fact? Yet another reporter from yet another "prestige" publication has leapt onto the "bash radio" bandwagon wielding impressions rather than facts. They are entitled to their opinions - - if they would just call them that: personal opinions.
| More... |

Mary Beth Garber, President
Southern California Broadcasters Assn. / Los Angeles

Arbitrends

NAB Daytime Planner

The following brokers will be attending the NAB. Call or email to make your appointment in advance.

Todd Fowler/David Reeder
American Media Services-
Brokerage, LLC
843-972-2200/903-640-5857
Bellagio,
americanmediaservices.com

Cliff Gardiner, Clifton Gardiner & Company, 303-758-6900,
Bellagio,
[email protected]

Andy McClure/Dean LeGras,
The Exline Company, Bellagio,
Office 415-479-3484

Frank Boyle,
Frank Boyle & Co., LLC,
Venetian Hotel,
203-969-2020,
[email protected]

John L. Pierce, John Pierce & Company LLC,
Mirage Hotel,
859-647-0101, cell 859-512-3015, [email protected]

Jamie Rasnick, John Pierce & Company LLC,
Mirage Hotel,
859-647-0101, cell 513-252-1186, [email protected]

Dick Kozacko/George Kimble,
Kozacko Media Services,
Bellagio,
office 607-733-7138, cell 607-738-1219, [email protected]

Bob W. Mahlman/Bob O. Mahlman, The 2 Bobs, Mahlman Co.,
914-793-1577, Hilton
Broadcast Foundation Hole in One Golf Tournament Sponsor.

Chuck Lontine,
Marconi Media Ventures, Inc.,
303-382-1000, cell 720-341-4722, [email protected]
www.marconi.cc

Elliot Evers, Media Venture Partners, LLC, 415-391-4877,
[email protected]

Larry Patrick/Greg Guy,
Patrick Communications,
Bellagio, 410-740-0250, [email protected]

Upped & Tapped

de Castro upped
at Arbitron
Arbitron has promoted Jenny de Castro to Northeast Regional Manager, making her responsible for renewals and new business for radio stations in the Northeast. Previously, she worked for two years as a Radio Station Services account manager.

Lender promotes three
Broadcast lender CapitalSource Inc. has promoted three senior executives from Managing Directors to Presidents: Dean Graham for the Healthcare and Specialty Finance Business, Joe Kenary for the Corporate Finance Business and Michael Szwajkowski for the Structured Finance Business.

More News Headlines

Vote early, vote often for
Hall candidates

Annual conference assesses
non-commercial radio

Randy Price announces retirement after 29 years in broadcasting

RBR Radar 2005

Radio News you won't read any where else. RBR--First, Accurate, and Independently Owned.

Sen. Burns won't take
no for an answer
FTC may have found that it has no jurisdiction to jump into the dispute over Nielsen's Local People Meters (LPM), but Sen. Conrad Burns (R-MT) isn't satisfied. He's written to FTC Chairman Deborah Platt Majoras, suggesting that she overlooked reasons why the FTC ought to get involved. Burns also said he may introduce legislation to force the government to get into regulation of broadcast ratings.
Read the entire letter.
RBR observation: Of all of the people on Capitol Hill, Conrad Burns, a former broadcaster, should be fighting to keep the government out of regulating broadcast ratings. Instead, he's leading the charge to inflict an unnecessary and onerous burden on Nielsen, Arbitron and their broadcast clients. If you know him personally - - and many of our readers do - - you would do well to drop Sen. Burns a note and tell him just how wrong he is.
04/08/05 RBR# 70

FTC won't enter LPM battle
After discussions with Nielsen, the Media Ratings Council (MRC) and Local People Meter (LPM) critics, the Federal Trade Commission says it found no evidence of any deceptive or unfair practices in Nielsen's LPM rollout. | Read the entire letter here. | RBR observation: Amen. We have said time and again that Rupert Murdoch and others are making a big mistake by trying to get the US government involved in regulating broadcast ratings. These problems need to be worked out in the industry - - and they can be. 04/07/05 RBR #69

Mobile phones to Replace TV
as prime ad medium
Mobile telephones and other wireless communication devices will soon become the most important medium for advertisers to reach technology-savvy consumers, according to a forecast by Andrew Robertson, BBDO CEO. He believes the way forward for advertisers to reach consumers would be to use wireless devices such as mobile phones, laptop computers and the Blackberry e-mail devices favored by traveling corporate execs on the go.
RBR observation: Laptop, Blackberry? Hey you are reading TVBR on this technology right this minute. Hello. 04/08/05 RBR# 70

There's a radio new analyst in town
Mark Wienkes is out with his first stock coverage since being tapped by Goldman Sachs to handle the radio sector. Eight terrestrial and two satellite radio stocks he's analyzed, he only finds two worth buying right now, Westwood One and Clear Channel. He's negative on Radio One and Sirius. "Radio is a traditional advertising revenue-driven industry and pricing power in radio is weak, so sector fundamentals are subpar, valuations are full, and catalysts are lacking," seeing terrestrial radio as mired in a single-digit growth mode and is looking for revenues to grow only 2% this year. If you've guessed that the new analyst is a big fan of satellite radio - - you're wrong. 04/07/05 RBR #69

Byron Allen sets his
sights on Paxson
Comedian/entertainer/producer/ entrepreneur Byron Allen is trying to raise money to buy out Paxson Communications and turn it into the first broadcast TV network aimed at the African-American audience. But while Allen has had preliminary talks with Paxson, it appears a lot of hurdles remain before any transaction gets to the contract stage - - let alone closing. TVBR observation: First of all, Allen is talking about needing about 2.2 billion to acquire the company - - paying off lenders and preferred stock holders for around two billion, with 200 million left for Bud Paxson and other shareholders. But according to the company's latest 10-K, just the debt and two preferred issues total 2,216,993 - - so the entire 2.2 billion would be used up before paying common equity holders a cent. Under the 1999 deal that brought NBC in as an investor, NBC would have to pay more than 170 million to Bud Paxson to exercise its right to buy his super-voting Class B shares and take control of the company. That's obviously not going to happen, but we doubt that Bud would settle for a payment of only 25 million or so if NBC is getting 471 million. 04/07/05 TVBR #69

Q1 reports begin this week
Another round of quarterly reports kicks off this week, with several newspaper/broadcast companies. CIBC World Markets analysts Michael Gallant and John Stewart expect from three of the biggest multi-media giants - Viacom they say the Infinity Radio division may still have a chance of posting flat revenues for the quarter, but that EBITDA will be down. TV revenues, boosted by the Super Bowl on CBS, should be up 3% and the cable nets are expected to grow revenues by 12%. All in all, they see Viacom's revenues rising 6.2% for Q1 and 6% for all of 2005. Disney local spot TV will be down slightly, but that local radio should be up in the low to mid single digits. In all, they're still expecting broadcasting operating income to be right where they'd previously forecast - - 56 million. News Corporation (Fox Entertainment) broadcast operation, raised operating earnings expectations for the O&O TV stations by seven million to 197 million, raised their estimate for the Fox network by four million to 31 million. They expect mid-teens revenue growth for the cable nets. RBR observation: Now the fun begins with Up Front around the corner and we watch to see what programming is dropped and what new programming these big moguls will pump like the neighbor's cat and then dump in mid season. The Up Front buying operation will be different. 04/06/05 RBR #68

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