Back in January, we were expecting that about 10 US Senate seats would be in play in the midterm election season. However, that number may have gone up, if a recent New York Times handicapping chart is accurate. With 33 states electing a Senator, only 19 are considered safely in the hands of one party or the other. And governor races are even more uncertain. On the Senate side, NYT sees the Democrats with 12 safe seats and seven leaners; the Republicans have seven safe seats and four leaners. Three races are called toss-ups. Democrats have six safe and eight leaning state houses, compared to seven safe and six leaning governorships for the Republicans, and nine are up in the air. At this point, NYT does not see a Democratic takeover in the House unless they can take a healthy bite out of seats currently leaning Republican. The Dems have 189 safe and 13 leaning seats, compared to 194 safe and 25 leaning Republican. 14 are in the toss-up category.
RBR observation:
The more toss-ups and leaners, the more cash you're likely to see flowing into the state. Only three states are completely out of the combined senate/state house picture, Kentucky, Louisiana and North Carolina. Double safeties, which should depress expenditures, exist for the Democrats in New Mexico and New York, and for the Republicans in Texas. Interestingly, Connecticut has two safeties, but it's the Senate for Democrats despite Joe Lieberman's independent run, and the governorship for the Republicans.
|
Senate |
Governor |
| Alabama |
no race |
Leaning Republican |
| Alaska |
no race |
Toss-up |
| Arizona |
Leaning Republican |
Safe Democrat |
| Arkansas |
no race |
Toss-up |
| California |
Safe Democrat |
Leaning Republican |
| Colorado |
no race |
Toss-up |
| Connecticut |
Safe Democrat |
Safe Republican |
| Delaware |
Safe Democrat |
no race |
| Florida |
Safe Democrat |
Leaning Republican |
| Georgia |
no race |
Safe Republican |
| Hawaii |
Safe Democrat |
Leaning Republican |
| Idaho |
no race |
Safe Republican |
| Illinois |
no race |
Leaning Democrat |
| Indiana |
Safe Republican |
no race |
| Iowa |
no race |
Toss-up |
| Kansas |
no race |
Safe Democrat |
| Kentucky |
no race |
no race |
| Louisiana |
no race |
no race |
| Maine |
Safe Republican |
Leaning Democrat |
| Maryland |
Leaning Democrat |
Toss-up |
| Massachusetts |
Safe Democrat |
Toss-up |
| Michigan |
Leaning Democrat |
Toss-up |
| Minnesota |
Leaning Democrat |
Toss-up |
| Mississippi |
Safe Republican |
no race |
| Missouri |
Toss-up |
no race |
| Montana |
Toss-up |
no race |
| Nebraska |
Leaning Democrat |
Safe Republican |
| Nevada |
Safe Republican |
Toss-up |
| New Hampshire |
no race |
Safe Democrat |
| New Jersey |
Leaning Democrat |
no race |
| New Mexico |
Safe Democrat |
Safe Democrat |
| New York |
Safe Democrat |
Safe Democrat |
| North Carolina |
no race |
no race |
| North Dakota |
Safe Democrat |
no race |
| Ohio |
Leaning Republican |
Leaning Democrat |
| Oklahoma |
no race |
Leaning Democrat |
| Oregon |
no race |
Leaning Democrat |
| Pennsylvania |
Leaning Democrat |
Leaning Democrat |
| Rhode Island |
Toss-up |
Leaning Republican |
| South Carolina |
no race |
Safe Republican |
| South Dakota |
no race |
Safe Republican |
| Tennessee |
Leaning Republican |
Safe Democrat |
| Texas |
Safe Republican |
Safe Republican |
| Utah |
Safe Republican |
no race |
| Vermont |
Safe Democrat |
Leaning Republican |
| Virginia |
Leaning Republican |
no race |
| Washington |
Leaning Democrat |
no race |
| West Virginia |
Safe Democrat |
no race |
| Wisconsin |
Safe Democrat |
Leaning Democrat |
| Wyoming |
Safe Republican |
Leaning Democrat |
Source: New York Times
