The US advertising environment wasn't looking so great when Bob Coen revised his 2005 ad spending forecast, mostly downward, back in June (6/3/05 RBR #128). Since then, things have gotten worse, not better, so look for the Universal McCann guru to have even lower final projections for 2005 when he speaks this morning at the UBS 33rd Annual Global Media Conference in New York and later in the day at a competing CSFB conference. Back in June Coen was still looking for local radio to be up 3.5% and national (network and spot combined) to gain 5%. Those targets appear far too high now, with the RAB reporting radio revenues flat through the first ten months of the year. Coen may also have to lower his projections that network TV would be up 2%, national spot TV down 5% and local TV up 2%. Coen's early projection for 2006 was for total US ad spend to rise 5.8%. We'll see if that holds up today and get his first detailed projection for each media sector.

Here's what Coen had forecast for 2005 a year ago and his revision in June.

Bob Coen's advertising forecast for 2005

	December	June	Ad spend
Media	Forecast	Forecast	(millions)
Four TV networks	2.0%	2.0%	$17,047
National spot TV	-1.0%	-5.0%	$10,802
Cable TV	7.0%	12.0%	$18,395
Syndication TV	3.5%	4.0%	$3,821
National radio (net & spot)	5.2%	5.0%	$4,524
Magazines	7.3%	7.5%	$13,166
National newspaper	6.8%	5.0%	$8,010
Direct mail	9.5%	8.5%	$56,627
National yellow pages	5.0%	3.0%	$2,173
Internet	25.0%	15.0%	$7,881
Other national media	5.6%	5.9%	$35,501
TOTAL NATIONAL	7.4%	6.5%	$177,947
Local newspaper	5.5%	5.0%	$40,934
Local TV	2.5%	2.0%	$14,797
Local radio	5.0%	3.5%	$15,737
Local yellow pages	3.0%	2.5%	$12,189
Other local media	6.1%	6.8%	$17,183
TOTAL LOCAL	4.8%	4.3%	$100,840
GRAND TOTAL	6.4%	5.7%	$278,787

Source: Universal McCann