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How'd the guru do this year?
A year ago, Universal McCann forecaster Bob Coen was bullish on the ad spending outlook for 2005 (12/7/04 RBR #237). That enthusiasm had cooled by June, when the guru ratcheted down most of his projections. Even so, the actual case was so much softer that even those June numbers proved to be overly optimistic. Over the course of the past year, Coen lowered his projection for national spot TV from a decline of only 1% to a 7.5% drop. For local TV he went from expecting a 2.5% gain to a drop of 3%. In radio his national projection went from up 5.2% to 1.5% (and even that appears at this point to be pretty optimistic) and local from up 5% to up 2% (also a pretty ambitious number at this point).
Here's the blow-by-blow for 2005.
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Bob Coen's advertising forecast for 2005
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Dec. '04
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June '04
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Dec. '05
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Ad spend
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Media
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Forecast
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Forecast
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Final
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(millions)
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Four TV networks
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2.0%
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2.0%
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1.0%
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$16,880
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National spot TV
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-1.0%
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-5.0%
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-7.5%
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$10,517
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Cable TV
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7.0%
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12.0%
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15.0%
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$18,888
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Syndication TV
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3.5%
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4.0%
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3.3%
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$3,792
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National radio (net & spot)
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5.2%
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5.0%
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1.5%
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$4,441
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Magazines
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7.3%
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7.5%
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5.0%
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$12,859
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National newspaper
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6.8%
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5.0%
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1.5%
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$7,743
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Direct mail
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9.5%
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8.5%
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8.5%
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$56,627
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National yellow pages
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5.0%
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3.0%
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1.5%
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$2,142
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Internet
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25.0%
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15.0%
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15.0%
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$7,881
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Other national media
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5.6%
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5.9%
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5.6%
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$35,377
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TOTAL NATIONAL
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7.4%
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6.5%
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6.0%
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$177,147
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Local newspaper
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5.5%
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5.0%
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3.0%
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$40,155
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Local TV
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2.5%
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2.0%
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-3.0%
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$14,072
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Local radio
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5.0%
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3.5%
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2.0%
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$15,509
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Local yellow pages
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3.0%
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2.5%
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2.0%
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$12,130
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Other local media
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6.1%
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6.8%
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5.7%
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$16,996
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TOTAL LOCAL
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4.8%
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4.3%
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2.3%
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$98,862
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GRAND TOTAL
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6.4%
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5.7%
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4.6%
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$276,009
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Source: Universal McCann
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